I think Boston is the only example/model the Blues can point to that shows not bottoming out can yield a Cup in the ways we are thinking. Vegas did it too, but they used the expansion draft as a significant source of asset accumulation that we cannot and they are able to do things with contracts that we can’t or won’t do.
That leaves Boston as the single example. It’s a very slim chance that it can be replicated. Even more slim than getting high picks to build a Cup winner.
I'd pushback on this. I don't agree that you can't accumulate equivalent/comparable assets to what they got in the expansion draft via a non-teardown-to-the-basement rebuild. They acquired a lot of assets, but you have to consider that they also didn't have any prospect pool whatsoever when they got them. We obviously can't use an expansion draft, but I believe that a re-tool type process can absolutely yield a similar amount/quality of prospects/picks and roster players.
Here are the picks Vegas acquired via expansion draft (taking picks to select/avoid specific players and then subsequent deals where they flipped a guy they selected for picks in the next few weeks).
2017: 13th overall, 15th overall, 45th overall, a 5th round pick, and a 6th round pick
2018: 4th round pick, 4th round pick
2019: 2nd round pick, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, 3rd round pick, 5th round pick
2020: 2nd round pick, 2nd round pick
They also acquired 21 year old Shea Theodore (former 26th overall pick) and 20 year old Alex Tuch (former 1st round pick) in direct expansion draft deals.
That's a lot of assets. But without an existing prospect pool, that didn't start them with some insane war chest. That gave them a couple 20-22 year old 1st round prospects, two extra early-mid 1st round picks for 2017 and then a bundle of 2nd rounders a few years out.
They got some good players too, but I wouldn't say that the core they got was more appealing than our current core. I think Thomas is a more valuable asset (either for trade or building around) than any roster player they drafted. I think Buch is a better player (and likely better trade asset) than any roster player they drafted. Parayko is a better player than any NHL-aged D man they drafted. Opinions vary on Kyrou, but he is at least on par with the best of the guys they drafted.
They drafted some supplemental guys like Haula, Schmidt, Collin Miller, etc that were eventually moved for moderate assets, but are those guys any different than the Leddy, Hayes, Saad, Faulk, etc in our lineup that will eventually be flipped for moderate assets?
They came out of the draft with Fleury and no heir apparent in net. Is that really a better situation than Binner/Hofer with Zherenko lurking in the minors.
Vegas did a great job in their expansion draft, but it isn't like they came out of it with a lineup of stars, a top end prospect pool, and a boatload of future picks. they completely botched the 6th overall pick (Cody Glass) and traded him 4 years later for redemption project Nolan Patrick who retired after playing just 25 games for the Knights.
I don't think the fact that they got all those assets at once negates that you can accumulate a similar quality core and futures war chest over a several year period without an expansion draft.
I'd take our current prospect pool (and upcoming draft capital) over the prospect pool (and upcoming draft capital) Vegas had after the expansion draft.
I'd take Thomas, Kyrou, Parayko, and Binner today over the 2017 versions of Karlsson, Marchessault, Smith, and Fleury. I can see an argument the other way, but Thomas tips the scale for me.
I'd take the supporting cast of Vegas (and their moderate trade value) over ours for sure, but I don't think that the eventual trades of these guys is what fueled the success they have had.
The guts of their Cup team was built using the quantity/quality of futures assets we have drafted (and have the picks to continue to draft) in the coming years.
They got their #1 center 4 years after the expansion draft by moving an actualized Tuch, the player they drafted with their own 2019 1st round pick and then future picks. Those guys weren't made expendable by a boatload of assets obtained in the expansion draft. We should have the assets to make such a deal in the future.
They got their #1 D in UFA.
They got their #2 center for a 5th round pick.
They got their #1 winger for Brannstrom (a 1st obtained in expansion), a guy they signed as a UFA, and a future 2nd.
They traded a 4th for Hill and signed Thompson as an undrafted UFA.
Now they have mortgaged way more futures to bring in non-rental Hertl and then a rent-to-extend Hanifin to try and extend the window.
Vegas has put on an absolute clinic in building a team via trades and free agency. I genuinely don't believe that their expansion draft haul was so good that other teams couldn't replicate it. Any team that can accumulate a moderate amount of surplus futures assets should be able to make the types of moves they did.