If our scouting department is as good as people claim it is, we shouldn't need to bottom out at all because our scouts will always be able to find high-quality players, maybe even "diamonds in the rough," wherever we happen to be picking in the draft. Even if it's the middle of the 1st round or lower. Thus, the goal of the organization should be to go for the playoffs every year knowing whatever happens, the amateur scouting department will be there to keep the pipeline replenished with high-quality prospects to keep us going.
This means Armstrong's current approach is completely sound and, given his body of work, he is well-suited for proper execution of that plan.
If, on the other hand, we decide we're going to bottom out, that will mean 4 years of 50-point teams and we don't return to being competitive until 2035 because it will up to 10 years for our scouting staff to identify players that can contribute at a high level [on top of the highly-touted forward prospects we already have and whatever highly talented players we already have on the roster], and 10 years for Armstrong to be able to mold that into a team capable of competing at a high level once again because he lacks the ability or desire (or maybe both) to make a return to being competitive happen any sooner.
I think that's what I've gleamed out of comments here and what Armstrong said in his press conference, but I'm open to clarifications as needed.
Because rebuilding a team is way more than just scouting and drafting.
And for as shitty as we were in 22/23, we still weren't close to bottom 5 bad. To get to bottom 5 bad, you are likely trading Parayko, so that the team doesn't have a proper shutdown pairing, getting rid of Binnington, so that he can't carry the team on his back for stretches, and probably Buchnevich too. I don't think the Buchnevich one really matters that much as far as the long-term risk, I think we should move him.
If we move Binnington, this could go a couple different ways. Hofer could perform at the same level he did as a backup, and like Binnington, he'll prevent us from being a bottom 5 team. The other direction is you just completely f*** his development, and now it's up to Ellis or Zherenko. I'd rather not f*** up the development of a promising young goalie.
We can move Parayko, and replace him with some random 2nd pair quality vet to eat some minutes. Unless we draft a Petro level talent, that's going to be a really shitty environment to develop any defenseman in. That's what the risk is in tanking, it's not about whether the scouts can do their job, it's if the draft that we happen to get a top pick in, happens to have the player available that would be worth being that bad for. And if you don't get someone that will develop regardless of the environment they are in, then you are in trouble. We were really f***ing lucky that Atlanta took Bogosian. Imagine if our #1 and #4 picks were Johnson and Bogosian/Schenn, that's what the risk is.
You seem to be under the assumption that gutting the team to the point of being top 5 pick quality won't have a significant impact on the development of current young players and those picks. Or the possibility of the years of being a top 5 pick team, those drafts just being dogshit.