daver
Registered User
I think the concept of the "pack" of elite offensive players is generally accepted, and how much a player separated themselves from the "pack" is generally accepted as the best way to compare players from other seasons/eras. The challenge is defining what constitutes the "pack" over league history with different league sizes.
Starting in '93/94, the league continued it's drop in overall scoring after a crazy 92/93 season. I measured the "pack" as being the average point total of the #10 scorer, the #25 scorer and the #50 scorer and compared that to the league GPG. I excluded seasons shortened by lockouts and Covid. As the # of teams increased, so does the # of the player used in the calculation. E.g. 2023/24 I used the #12 scorer, #30 scorer, and the #60 scorer.
Here is how the first seasons looked:
93/94 - League GPG: 3.24, scoring level of the "pack - 86 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 110)
95/96 - League GPG: 3.14, scoring level of the "pack - 87 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 116)
96/97 - League GPG: 2.92, scoring level of the "pack - 75 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 99)
97/98 - League GPG: 2.64, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 89)
98/99 - League GPG: 2.63, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 100)
99/00 - League GPG: 2.75, scoring level of the "pack - 69 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 86)
..
03/04 - League GPG: 2.57, scoring level of the "pack" - 65 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 75)
Comment- There is a clear, and not surprising, connection between league scoring levels and the scoring level of the pack. Generally speaking ES scoring decline was the main reason for the league drop. PP scoring was pretty consistent. There seems to be a somewhat disproportionate effect on the scoring levels of the pack vs. the overall drop in league GPG. I.e. the pack dropped a bit more %-wise. From '96/97 to '03/04 (the DPE), the GPG averages 2.66 and the "pack" averages 69 points
IMMEDIATE POST LOCKOUT
05/06 - League GPG: 3.08, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 105)
06/07 - League GPG: 2.95, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 104)
--
09/10 - League GPG: 2.84, scoring level of the "pack - 71 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 96)
Comment- League scoring, and the "pack" scoring take significant jumps as PP opportunities take a significant jump. As PP opportunities decrease so does league scoring and the "pack". It seems clear that ES scoring has not really been affected by league changes to open things up.
DPE 2.0
10/11 - League GPG: 2.79, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 89)
11/12 - League GPG: 2.73, scoring level of the "pack - 68 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 87)
--
16/17 - League GPG: 2.77, scoring level of the "pack - 65 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 84)
Comment - From '10/11 to 16/17, the GPG averages 2.75 and the "pack" averages 66 points. There appears to be a clear difference in the "pack" scoring from the DPE that can be attributed to the difference in PP opportunities (an average of 4.35 in the DPE vs. 3.21 in the DPE 2.0).
There is also a clearer disproportionate effect on the scoring levels of the "pack" vs. the overall drop in league GPG in comparison to the DPE. In the five seasons that league GPG was above 2.90, the average GPG was 3.07 and the pack scoring was 81. During DPE 2.0, the "pack" scoring decreased 10% more than expected (expected was 73 points).
POST DPE 2.0
17/18 - League GPG: 2.97, scoring level of the "pack - 74 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 95)
18/19 - League GPG: 3.01, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 104)
--
3.11 - League GPG: 3.11, scoring level of the "pack - 80 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 111)
Comment - From '17/18 to 23/24, the GPG averages 3.08 and the "pack" averages 79 points. The "pack" has returned to scoring levels very similar to those seen in the five other seasons where the league GPG was above 2.90. The difference this time is an increase in ES scoring as PP opportunities have not wavered too much since 14/15.
OVERALL COMMENT
Scoring for the "pack" was the most difficult during the DPE 2.0. Accordingly, it was the most difficult period for superstar talent to separate themselves from the pack. Leading scorers in the DPE 2.0 and the DPE are handicapped in terms of relative dominance vs. the leading scorers in higher scoring seasons. Both eras had multiple seasons of "meh" level of leading scorers where under 100 points was winning Rosses and noone was getting close to 50 goals despite many of the same players, still in their primes, doing just that in seasons before and after the DPE eras.
Starting in '93/94, the league continued it's drop in overall scoring after a crazy 92/93 season. I measured the "pack" as being the average point total of the #10 scorer, the #25 scorer and the #50 scorer and compared that to the league GPG. I excluded seasons shortened by lockouts and Covid. As the # of teams increased, so does the # of the player used in the calculation. E.g. 2023/24 I used the #12 scorer, #30 scorer, and the #60 scorer.
Here is how the first seasons looked:
93/94 - League GPG: 3.24, scoring level of the "pack - 86 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 110)
95/96 - League GPG: 3.14, scoring level of the "pack - 87 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 116)
96/97 - League GPG: 2.92, scoring level of the "pack - 75 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 99)
97/98 - League GPG: 2.64, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 89)
98/99 - League GPG: 2.63, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 100)
99/00 - League GPG: 2.75, scoring level of the "pack - 69 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 86)
..
03/04 - League GPG: 2.57, scoring level of the "pack" - 65 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 75)
Comment- There is a clear, and not surprising, connection between league scoring levels and the scoring level of the pack. Generally speaking ES scoring decline was the main reason for the league drop. PP scoring was pretty consistent. There seems to be a somewhat disproportionate effect on the scoring levels of the pack vs. the overall drop in league GPG. I.e. the pack dropped a bit more %-wise. From '96/97 to '03/04 (the DPE), the GPG averages 2.66 and the "pack" averages 69 points
IMMEDIATE POST LOCKOUT
05/06 - League GPG: 3.08, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 105)
06/07 - League GPG: 2.95, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 104)
--
09/10 - League GPG: 2.84, scoring level of the "pack - 71 points (avg. scoring of Top 9 - 96)
Comment- League scoring, and the "pack" scoring take significant jumps as PP opportunities take a significant jump. As PP opportunities decrease so does league scoring and the "pack". It seems clear that ES scoring has not really been affected by league changes to open things up.
DPE 2.0
10/11 - League GPG: 2.79, scoring level of the "pack - 67 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 89)
11/12 - League GPG: 2.73, scoring level of the "pack - 68 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 87)
--
16/17 - League GPG: 2.77, scoring level of the "pack - 65 points (avg. scoring of Top 10 - 84)
Comment - From '10/11 to 16/17, the GPG averages 2.75 and the "pack" averages 66 points. There appears to be a clear difference in the "pack" scoring from the DPE that can be attributed to the difference in PP opportunities (an average of 4.35 in the DPE vs. 3.21 in the DPE 2.0).
There is also a clearer disproportionate effect on the scoring levels of the "pack" vs. the overall drop in league GPG in comparison to the DPE. In the five seasons that league GPG was above 2.90, the average GPG was 3.07 and the pack scoring was 81. During DPE 2.0, the "pack" scoring decreased 10% more than expected (expected was 73 points).
POST DPE 2.0
17/18 - League GPG: 2.97, scoring level of the "pack - 74 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 95)
18/19 - League GPG: 3.01, scoring level of the "pack - 79 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 104)
--
3.11 - League GPG: 3.11, scoring level of the "pack - 80 points (avg. scoring of Top 11 - 111)
Comment - From '17/18 to 23/24, the GPG averages 3.08 and the "pack" averages 79 points. The "pack" has returned to scoring levels very similar to those seen in the five other seasons where the league GPG was above 2.90. The difference this time is an increase in ES scoring as PP opportunities have not wavered too much since 14/15.
OVERALL COMMENT
Scoring for the "pack" was the most difficult during the DPE 2.0. Accordingly, it was the most difficult period for superstar talent to separate themselves from the pack. Leading scorers in the DPE 2.0 and the DPE are handicapped in terms of relative dominance vs. the leading scorers in higher scoring seasons. Both eras had multiple seasons of "meh" level of leading scorers where under 100 points was winning Rosses and noone was getting close to 50 goals despite many of the same players, still in their primes, doing just that in seasons before and after the DPE eras.
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