I have Wirtz as favorite.
Soccer is stupid
they'll have the award ceremony in Cannes so they can call it the Palmer d'Orclose pack means the international tournaments make the difference.
RM win UCL and Brazil win Copa? it'll be Vini.
RM win UCL and England win Euro? it'll be Bellingham if he has a dominant tournament, Kane if he doesn't
Germany have a good Euro and Leverkusen complete the undefeated treble? it'll likely not be Wirtz because he doesn't have the pedigree yet, but it should be.
France win Euro? it's Mbappe
Spain win euro or make the final? it's Rodri.
unfortunately none of you are prepared for the actual outcome
which is Cole Palmer winning the Euro2024 golden boot, PL POTY, PL YPOTY, and subsequently the Ballon d'Or
What if Arsenal wins the EPL and England wins the Euros on the back of Rice?RM win UCL and England win Euro? it'll be Bellingham if he has a dominant tournament, Kane if he doesn't
Not really. I just shows those 2 teams get very lucky with the lack of finish from opponents, instead of defending better than others.Just shows that Xg formula is flawed and should be adjusted to reflect reality more accurately.
still Kane sorry, these folks are not giving Declan Rice a ballon d'orWhat if Arsenal wins the EPL and England wins the Euros on the back of Rice?
I just can't imagine a group that lionizes trophies giving the BDO to a player who brought the first trophyless season to his team in a decade.still Kane sorry, these folks are not giving Declan Rice a ballon d'or
i can imagine a group that lionizes trophies giving the BDO to a guy who captained his team to a Euro championship and led the continent in scoring during the club seasonI just can't imagine a group that lionizes trophies giving the BDO to a player who brought the first trophyless season to his team in a decade.
Which is why I think the way England wins is important. If England wins because Foden/Saka/Bellingham/Rice/Palmer score a bunch of goals and Kane is relatively irrelevant, it's harder to see for me.i can imagine a group that lionizes trophies giving the BDO to a guy who captained his team to a Euro championship and led the continent in scoring during the club season
Not really. I just shows those 2 teams get very lucky with the lack of finish from opponents, instead of defending better than others.
Right, but you shouldn't adjust it on the basis of a couple teams.But that's not what Xg should be about?
If the reality is that goals get scored in certain situations because teams get constantly "lucky", then the formula should be adjusted to reflect the reality more accurately how likely goals are scored in those type of situations, alas to include what you called "luck".
Right, but you shouldn't adjust it on the basis of a couple teams.
Of course not. The goal isn’t for xG to match G for each team. The goal is to have it match on a broad level. So, while those teams have given up a lot fewer goals compared to their xGA, there are definitely teams that have given up more G than xGA.Probably not, but are those two teams really the only anomalies over the years, maybe they are.
There is data for several years from numerous leagues to make informed decisions on possible changes of the formula.
it's a piece of the puzzle, not be all and end all. sophisticated analysts absolutely incorporate game state when discussing these things.I cannot begin to describe how much I loathe xG as a stat or people referring to it as a measuring stick for... Anything, really.
xG takes ZERO context into consideration.
Prime Conte/Allegri Juventus scored 1 goal, then maybe scored another. Then just closed the game out. Probably had 0 xG from min 30 to the end. The opponent probably creates a chance or two and gets their xG up. It tells you nothing of the game that was just played.
xG doesn't tell you who is chasing the game, who's defending the lead, etc etc.
I referenced this above, but some xG models (like Opta) do include defender and keeper position data as well as things like phase of play (counter vs established possession vs set piece, etc)It's more useful the bigger sample size you have, but there are some obvious flaws in judging a game purely by xG
- It treats all the players the same: Kylian Mbappe and Emre Can generate the same xG from the same chance, when one is obviously more likely to go in.
- It treats all goalkeepers the same.
- It heavily relies on relies on where the shot was taken, and ignores things like defender position between the ball and the goal, what kind of a stance the attacker is shooting from etc.
- xG only generates from shots and not possession. So let's say a team gets a 3 on 1 attack, but fumbles the ball and never manages to take a shot: it's zero xG, which obviously isn't on par with reality.
Sometimes the xG is in line with what happened in the game, sometimes it's not. But it tends to even out in the long run.