GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[Legion34]

Which of those teams think they can resign him? If they can’t, what do they pay for just 1 season?

It would depend what his priorities are
close to home (Detroit)
Chance to win jersey/isles

Weather. Anaheim

Tax free. Seattle.

I would guess jersey or Anaheim would extend him.

If it’s a rental.
I would ask for

For picks/prospects or saros.

 

[aingefan]

My guesses are
Jersey. Stl. Nash. Anaheim. Detroit. Isles. Seattle. Utah. La. Wash. Pitt.

All need scoring wingers. Marner could be laundered through another team.

Of those.
NJD-tons of cap and pieces
ANA. Tons of cap/peices.
Isles-could make it work.
Nash- would have to be saros prob.
Seattle- would have to be based around weight.
La- would need third party or go for like fiala.

Not sure what he would want. Weather. Close to Toronto chance to win. Tax free.

But there are more than enough options there to figure something out.

There’s tons of potential permutations in this hypothetical, and who really knows.

But from a starting point, we can consider him as an asset with an AAV to suitors ranging anywhere from ~5.5 to ~11 cap hit on the first year before involving any other teams, and should remember the timing….if it’s an off-season/near the draft/pre-fa move, there would be countless ways for any team to fit marner.

Edit: meaning to say, I agree with you that the market wouldn’t be limited due to his cap hit.

 

[SprDaVE]

My guesses are
Jersey. Stl. Nash. Anaheim. Detroit. Isles. Seattle. Utah. La. Wash. Pitt.

All need scoring wingers. Marner could be laundered through another team.

Of those.
NJD-tons of cap and pieces
ANA. Tons of cap/peices.
Isles-could make it work.
Nash- would have to be saros prob.
Seattle- would have to be based around weight.
La- would need third party or go for like fiala.

Not sure what he would want. Weather. Close to Toronto chance to win. Tax free.

But there are more than enough options there to figure something out.

Which of those teams think they can resign him? If they can’t, what do they pay for just 1 season?

All of them can in theory if something happens. A few of them are very unlikely like the Isles and NJD based on their team make up though.

The Leafs could (and will) pick up the tab on a player or two in the process as the deal takes form. I'm not sure why we're expecting just no money back to the Leafs or think teams can't make other trades. Teams in 2 years can take plenty of time to do the appropriate moves to accommodate an extension.

Carolina would be very interesting. They always seem to pull off some crazy deals and additions when they prop up. The problem with them is that they probably need defense a whole lot more over the next 2 years. They are gonna get thin/expensive fast.

For my money, Seattle would be a great partner and team that desperately wants and needs a star level player. Hasktol knows Marner a bit and I'm sure Francis would love to finally pull off a big addition.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

What teams would want him? What teams have enough cap space? With what teams will Marner sign an extension? Once you realize all three of those conditions have to be met before a deal is even considered, you understand how small the market will be.

I could see Ryan Smith in Utah wanting to get him to make a big splash. They have pieces I would be interested in as well.

 

[Legion34]

All of them can in theory if something happens. A few of them are very unlikely like the Isles and NJD based on their team make up though.

The Leafs could (and will) pick up the tab on a player or two in the process as the deal takes form. I'm not sure why we're expecting just no money back to the Leafs or think teams can't make other trades. Teams in 2 years can take plenty of time to do the appropriate moves to accommodate an extension.

Carolina would be very interesting. They always seem to pull off some crazy deals and additions when they prop up. The problem with them is that they probably need defense a whole lot more over the next 2 years. They are gonna get thin/expensive fast.

For my money, Seattle would be a great partner and team that desperately wants and needs a star level player. Hasktol knows Marner a bit and I'm sure Francis would love to finally pull off a big addition.

Just out of curiousity. Why would NJD be unlikely from a fit wise.

They just lost toffoli. They have like 15 million to spend now with their core locked up, and need 1 forward and a 1b goalie.

Their top 6

Meier. Hughes. Bratt
Palat. Hischjer. Xxxx (Marner)

Would be insane. They spent on Hamilton. And that wouldn’t wreck their structure.

I would do Mercer plus if Mercer can be a 2 c.

 

[Dreakmur]

I could see Ryan Smith in Utah wanting to get him to make a big splash. They have pieces I would be interested in as well.

And Marner wants to go and commit log term to a team that may move back to Arizona?

 

[Schenn]

And Marner wants to go and commit log term to a team that may move back to Arizona?

That's not how it works.

 

[Legion34]

And Marner wants to go and commit log term to a team that may move back to Arizona?

Just fyi. There is no chance this team is going back.

AM kept the “team” and IP and sold the players/staff to smith. Basically.

It would be a reactived 33rd team in Arizona. The Utah team isn’t going back there.

 

[BertCorbeau]

In terms of getting a payment, Marner to SJ might get a nice haul of assets. Grier could be swindled by the thought of landing Marner with an extension.

The have the cap space and Marner may be willing to wave to go there.

 

[Americanadian]

Marner would only cost a 3rd team 388k in real cash to eat half. That opens up a lot of options for contenders.

Dallas has Faksa, Benn, Dadonov, Suter, Lindell and Pavelski’s bonus coming off the books when Marner expires. They would make a lot of sense for Marner at 5.45M. They also have a ton of assets that would be intriguing to the Leafs.

 

[Warden of the North]

They can very easily make him the villain this summer if they want

They have to choose to actively make him NOT the villian if they don't want him to be.

If they choose to do nothing, it's over. He's already shown he can't handle even a minute amount of public tension.

 

[613Leafer]

I could see Ryan Smith in Utah wanting to get him to make a big splash. They have pieces I would be interested in as well.

I just don't see why Marner would waive for Utah. It's not the most exciting city to live in, it is a state with state tax (albeit a lower one), and there's uncertainty around the team in general.

A no tax state with a good team, particularly if it's an interesting city or warm climate near the ocean (eg Dallas, TB, Florida, Nashville, etc), sure. Maybe California teams, even with the state tax there - Marner seems like he'd like that lifestyle. Utah though? Nah.

 

[SprDaVE]

Just out of curiousity. Why would NJD be unlikely from a fit wise.

They just lost toffoli. They have like 15 million to spend now with their core locked up, and need 1 forward and a 1b goalie.

Their top 6

Meier. Hughes. Bratt
Palat. Hischjer. Xxxx (Marner)

Would be insane. They spent on Hamilton. And that wouldn’t wreck their structure.

I would do Mercer plus if Mercer can be a 2 c.

They already have plenty of skill and average/undersized forwards. I think they are in a similar situation as the Leafs where they need to put money in different level players like goaltending (big one) and different levels of depth. Marner is a great player so he'd help any team but not sure they would want to blow a ton of cap space for more of the same.

 

[Americanadian]

To TOR: Stankoven, DAL 2024 1st
To DAL: Marner (50% retained)
to CHI: Marner (50% salary), Faksa, Liljegren

Marner gets the best of both worlds - no tax state, immediate contender. Chicago essentially Liljegren for 9M in cap dumps but only 3.1M in actual dollars. Dallas gets an immediate upgrade on Stankoven for a net AAV of 2.2M.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I just don't see why Marner would waive for Utah. It's not the most exciting city to live in, it is a state with state tax (albeit a lower one), and there's uncertainty around the team in general.

A no tax state with a good team, particularly if it's an interesting city or warm climate near the ocean (eg Dallas, TB, Florida, Nashville, etc), sure. Maybe California teams, even with the state tax there - Marner seems like he'd like that lifestyle. Utah though? Nah.

I think there is a greater than 0 chance Mitch would waive for Utah if the money is fantastic. I wouldn't blame him, I might do the same.

Mitch is a young man who appreciates a hockey market and a fun city but he's a married man now and is getting torched by the lifestyle he typically covets. I could certainly see a shift to a peaceful media market + highest pay offer aligning with him. That would sell me personally if I was him and was feeling burnout and upset.

 

[aingefan]

They have to choose to actively make him NOT the villian if they don't want him to be.

If they choose to do nothing, it's over. He's already shown he can't handle even a minute amount of public tension.

Correct and he’s got reason to cooperate for optics for his own sake and for the sake of the team.
At a retained cap hit and post bonus payment , the viability of suitors is pretty diverse. And so is the return, really.
You’d imagine that the ideal target would be a younger player who can stick around a long while. I secretly hope that the team can sneak a Sylvain Lefebvre in there tho.

 

[aingefan]

Just out of curiousity. Why would NJD be unlikely from a fit wise.

They just lost toffoli. They have like 15 million to spend now with their core locked up, and need 1 forward and a 1b goalie.

Their top 6

Meier. Hughes. Bratt
Palat. Hischjer. Xxxx (Marner)

Would be insane. They spent on Hamilton. And that wouldn’t wreck their structure.

I would do Mercer plus if Mercer can be a 2 c.

Pretty intriguing option.

Marner would only cost a 3rd team 388k in real cash to eat half. That opens up a lot of options for contenders.

Dallas has Faksa, Benn, Dadonov, Suter, Lindell and Pavelski’s bonus coming off the books when Marner expires. They would make a lot of sense for Marner at 5.45M. They also have a ton of assets that would be intriguing to the Leafs.

And to a team going all-in, that’s enough to make you drool. Imagine Marner at 2.75 on the cap for one year.

 

[ULF_55]

That's not how it works.

Yeah, IMO, it would be an expansion team to Arizona ... unknown location.

Utah is there to stay.

 

[Legion34]

I think there is a greater than 0 chance Mitch would waive for Utah if the money is fantastic. I wouldn't blame him, I might do the same.

Mitch is a young man who appreciates a hockey market and a fun city but he's a married man now and is getting torched by the lifestyle he typically covets. I could certainly see a shift to a peaceful media market + highest pay offer aligning with him. That would sell me personally if I was him and was feeling burnout and upset.

You wonder where she would want to be. If she is from London. Detroit?

But all they have is the big LD Edvisnson who I would take In a second. Not sure who he would play. With? Copp

 

[SprDaVE]

In terms of getting a payment, Marner to SJ might get a nice haul of assets. Grier could be swindled by the thought of landing Marner with an extension.

The have the cap space and Marner may be willing to wave to go there.

Grier is not a very good GM but I don't even think he'd do something like that while rebuilding the Sharks.

But hey... maybe he'll want to improve his squad. I don't know.

 

[TheShape]

To TOR: Stankoven, DAL 2024 1st
To DAL: Marner (50% retained)
to CHI: Marner (50% salary), Faksa, Liljegren

Marner gets the best of both worlds - no tax state, immediate contender. Chicago essentially Liljegren for 9M in cap dumps but only 3.1M in actual dollars. Dallas gets an immediate upgrade on Stankoven for a net AAV of 2.2M.

Something like this makes sense, maybe I’m being greedy but I’d want an upgrade on Stankoven if possible. Something more proven.

You wonder where she would want to be. If she is from London. Detroit?

But all they have is the big LD Edvisnson who I would take In a second. Not sure who he would play. With? Copp

Detroit makes a whole lot of sense for Marner as a UFA destination, but I’m not sure they work as trade partners.

 

[Americanadian]

Something like this makes sense, maybe I’m being greedy but I’d want an upgrade on Stankoven if possible.

I'd say 0 chance you get Johnston or Harley so it's between Stankoven and Bischel. I'd rather Stankoven because he's been a good NHL player this season and it's easy to see him turning into Seth Jarvis. Bischel fits Treliving's M.O. but he's more a project and the Leafs can't develop D.

There are no other teams that are both contenders and in non-tax states that have the high end young players that Dallas has. I'd even take Bourque over anything Florida, Vegas or Nashville have to offer.

 

[Fogelhund]

So what's the general consensus here... are we going to make changes to management and players next year, with the hope of competing next year, or the year after, once Tavares comes off the books too, and we have a ton of cap flexibility?

 

[Americanadian]

You wonder where she would want to be. If she is from London.

She's from Oshawa.

 

[613Leafer]

I think we need to be open to the idea of potentially taking a step back next year, in the interest of building a proper contender long-term. We've spent a ton of assets the last few years, and obviously have had limited cap flexibity.

Marner - what return do we get if we move him at full caphit? What return do we get if we retain a bit and move him at a caphit of ~7-8M?

Tavares - he is unlikely to waive, but if we played hardball with him and said he can either waive and give us a short list of destinations, or he can have the C stripped (in this market) and we won't re-sign him after so he'll have to leave anyway. He may want to avoid a years worth of negativity and just leave. TB played hardball with McDonagh and told him to accept a trade to Nashville or get waived to the minors and claimed by Columbus. We don't have that same leverage, but it's a similar concept of giving a few options to the player. Tavares is worth nothing at 11M, but retain 50%, and he holds some value.

Get those guys moved, next year likely becomes a bit of a write-off, but it sets us up well for 2025 and beyond as the trade returns on Marner with retention + Tavares with retention vs only moving Marner with no retention are quite different. Frees up a ton of capspace longterm, and there's a good chance Knies, Cowen, and Grebenkin are filling three top 9 wingers spots for cheap for a number of years. Woll, Niemela, Minten, etc will also be further developed, and hopefully playing meaningful roles in 2025.

Critical to either get as part of the trade return, address in free agency with the capspace, or via another trade, is to find a quality #2 C and a top pairing dman, because those are critical roles that we seem unlikely to fill internally.

So what's the general consensus here... are we going to make changes to management and players next year, with the hope of competing next year, or the year after, once Tavares comes off the books too, and we have a ton of cap flexibility?

I certainly hope so.