The Race for the Calder Trophy

[roon]

The Calder is awarded to the rookie judged to be the "Most Proficient" over the course of the year.

Faber is just the better all around 200 foot proficient player.

 

[AzHawk]

Tell me you didn't read the thread without telling me.

The post you quoted was a response to some hawks fan making an absurd comment.

The "absurd comment" was "I disagree. I think Bedard is the better player right now."

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think Faber has been the best rookie defenseman this year (and would be my vote for the Calder), but Luke Hughes has really started to close the gap down the stretch. Since mid March, he leads all rookies in scoring with 13 points in his last 13 games.

Any chance Faber had at the Calder pretty much evaporated with Hughes passing him in scoring.

 

[roon]

The "absurd comment" was "I disagree. I think Bedard is the better player right now."

Exactly.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Overall responsibility and defensive game is another thing and guys need time for sure....but I think it's the faceoffs that moved him ore than anything.

None of this to defend his play on the D side....he hasn't been great and I never expected him to be, nor did anyone else I'd guess, so nothing really to see there.

On the flip side; a lot of fans knew that Faber was good defensively and would slot in as a replacement for Dumba and maybe a bit of an upgrade defensively compared to Dumba, especially his small sample size in the playoffs last season. I think most Wild fans hoped that Faber would be a good first pairing guy that would compliment a more offensive-defenseman. A rich man's version of Jacob Middleton actually down the road.

What most fans didn't count on was that Faber would be a number 1 defenseman THIS SEASON for Minnesota. He's played 25+ minutes (top 10, almost top 5 in the entire NHL), has 43 points (trailing Luke Hughes by only 2 points), which is good for top 30 (only 15 of his points came from the power play compared to Hughes 27 points).

Again, expectations vs reality:

Bedard was seen as a generational talent (expectation) vs Bedard is doing good on a poor team and is showing he's a generation talent. He's met that expectation.

Hughes was seen as the next Quinn Hughes/Adam Fox/Cale Makar, an offensive wizard vs Hughes started out slow but has taken off. He's shaky defensively, but he's providing the offense that everyone expected him to provide.

Faber was seen as a good top 3/4 defenseman at his peak, maybe top 2/3 depending on a few factors, but a good complimentary defenseman vs Faber is a top pairing defenseman, playing the most minutes out of ANY rookie in the NHL and is providing a whopping 40+ point. To put that in perspective from a Wild fan, Faber's first season point total is already top 10 for the entire franchise history. He's tied for 7th.

 

[Goose]

If I was building a team I’d rather have Faber.

I think Bedard will fairly easily win the Calder with like 70% of first place votes or something though.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hughes was seen as the next Quinn Hughes/Adam Fox/Cale Makar, an offensive wizard vs Hughes started out slow but has taken off. He's shaky defensively, but he's providing the offense that everyone expected him to provide.

Hughes really isn't that shaky defensively, and his underlying numbers support that. He's one of our better defenders. He's had some rookie moments this year, but that's usually when the team is pushing trying to create offense. When he's been asked to play in a more defensive role he's been very very good in that aspect. His skating ability such a huge advantage for him - he might be the fastest defenseman in the NHL already (he has the fastest clocked speed of any dman this year (24.2 mph), the most 22+ mph bursts, and the most 20+ mph bursts).

I also don't think people expected him to be an elite offensive dman - he's more in the mold of a Heiskanen. A 2 way dman who can cover tons of ice with his world class skating.

 

[dgibb10]

Hughes really isn't that shaky defensively, and his underlying numbers support that. He's one of our better defenders. He's had some rookie moments this year, but that's usually when the team is pushing trying to create offense. When he's been asked to play in a more defensive role he's been very very good in that aspect. His skating ability such a huge advantage for him - he might be the fastest defenseman in the NHL already (he has the fastest clocked speed of any dman this year (24.2 mph), the most 22+ mph bursts, and the most 20+ mph bursts).

I also don't think people expected him to be an elite offensive dman - he's more in the mold of a Heiskanen. A 2 way dman who can cover tons of ice with his world class skating.

Nemec and Hughes have been blamed for Bahl, Siegenthaler, Marino, and Smith's failures this year.

It's wild. Luke and Nemec as a pairing have generated 64% of expected goals for NJD at even strength. That's top 5 in the NHL among pairings.

Also Luke specifically has his +/- tanked by empty net situations.

 

[dgibb10]

How much will you give me if I roll a grenade into this mess and say that in three years the best defender from this rookie class will be Simon Nemec.

Oops…

I'll roll the grenade and say he already is (by a hair)

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nemec and Hughes have been blamed for Bahl, Siegenthaler, Marino, and Smith's failures this year.

It's wild. Luke and Nemec as a pairing have generated 64% of expected goals for NJD at even strength. That's top 5 in the NHL among pairings.

Also Luke specifically has his +/- tanked by empty net situations.

Yea, Luke is only -3 at 5v5 despite a 988 PDO

 

[dgibb10]

You understand what raw Corsi and Fenwick are right? They are just shot attempts for vs against. Using all situations when one guy plays way more PK than PP is deceptive. You are always going to have more shots against than for in that scenario. Every category you posted about says extremely little about player quality or impact, hits and blocks have almost no predictive power.

Minnesota Wild defenders, score and venue adjusted 5v5: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Chicago Blackhawks defenders, score and venue adjusted 5v5: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Use whatever filters you want, Seth Jones has horrible results while getting fed more than 50% Offensive zone starts. There are reasons that the models put Seth Jones in the category of worst contract value, he plays a lot of minutes, very poorly. This at least did give me a little clarity on why Blackhawks fans think TOI is meaningless, Seth Jones getting that much ice time really is a travesty.

235 minutes stuck with noted terrorist Brendan Smith is also screwing luke.

Per Natural Stat Trick looking at with/without numbers, NJD generates 57.4% of xGoals 5v5 with Luke on the ice and brendan smith on the bench. That number would rank Luke 5th among all qualifying dman, trailing only Bouchard, Ekholm, Heiskanen, and Chatfield. Granted this doesn't account for the games was out with injury for. I'd have to do a more in depth look to find the results for those games

 

[Chelios]

I think Faber has been the best rookie defenseman this year (and would be my vote for the Calder), but Luke Hughes has really started to close the gap down the stretch. Since mid March, he leads all rookies in scoring with 13 points in his last 13 games.

View attachment 848137

Any chance Faber had at the Calder pretty much evaporated with Hughes passing him in scoring.

Wait, all you have done in this thread is bash Bedard about his defence, and now you are touting Hughes?

 

[WarriorofTime]

View attachment 848083
This is his most common line mate this year. This is his card from last year.

The offense he’s generated this year is remarkable.

I can't believe I got yelled down at the Hawks board like three weeks ago for saying they shouldn't necessarily extend him through UFA years

 

[dgibb10]

Wait, all you have done in this thread is bash Bedard about his defence, and now you are touting Hughes?

Luke Hughes is better defensively than Bedard.
Neither have been good, but Luke has been better.

Also would like to point out that bedard should 100% win the calder still

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think Faber has been the best rookie defenseman this year (and would be my vote for the Calder), but Luke Hughes has really started to close the gap down the stretch. Since mid March, he leads all rookies in scoring with 13 points in his last 13 games.

View attachment 848137

Any chance Faber had at the Calder pretty much evaporated with Hughes passing him in scoring.

This is a good point. A lot of the "not Bedard" voters - if there are many - will likely see their votes split between Faber and Hughes.

The only way I see Bedard not winning this, is if the people who really feel that Faber should win leave Bedard off of their ballots completely, and I hate the thought of that happening as it wouldn't show any integrity among the voters. Not that voter integrity for the NHL awards is really a thing, ha ha.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wait, all you have done in this thread is bash Bedard about his defence, and now you are touting Hughes?

Luke Hughes has been much better defensively than Bedard. Is this seriously a question?

I can't believe I got yelled down at the Hawks board like three weeks ago for saying they shouldn't necessarily extend him through UFA years

Kurashev is pretty underrated as a complimentary offensive player. He's got some legit skills. But he's terrible defensively, which makes Bedard's job that much harder. And he's not the type of guy who can create on his own.

 

[MuckOG]

This is a good point. A lot of the "not Bedard" voters - if there are many - will likely see their votes split between Faber and Hughes.

The only way I see Bedard not winning this, is if the people who really feel that Faber should win leave Bedard off of their ballots completely, and I hate the thought of that happening as it wouldn't show any integrity among the voters. Not that voter integrity for the NHL awards is really a thing, ha ha.

It shows poor integrity to not blindly follow the conventional wisdom and established preseason hype?

 

[ManofSteel55]

It shows poor integrity to not blindly follow the conventional wisdom and established preseason hype?

No, it would show no integrity if a voter wanted Faber to win so they left Bedard off of the ballot entirely. Regardless of who you feel should win, both of these players should be somewhere on the ballot for every single voter of this award. We've seen it in the past where voters did similar, which is why I mentioned it.

 

[Chelios]

Luke Hughes is better defensively than Bedard.
Neither have been good, but Luke has been better.

Also would like to point out that bedard should 100% win the calder still

Luke is a defenceman, I would hope he is better defensively. Not even a knock against Luke as it is really hard to be good defensively in the NHL as a 20 year old. Just calling out that particular poster who has been talking about Bedard’s defence non-stop.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Kurashev is pretty underrated as a complimentary offensive player. He's got some legit skills. But he's terrible defensively, which makes Bedard's job that much harder. And he's not the type of guy who can create on his own.

Bedard is a lucky guy, lol

 

[TLEH]

I can't believe I got yelled down at the Hawks board like three weeks ago for saying they shouldn't necessarily extend him through UFA years

I know me and DHF are definitely with you on being cautious with a Kurashev contract.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard is a lucky guy, lol

He's got a terrible supporting cast, I'm not trying to argue any different. But Kurashev is a really skilled little player.

 

[TLEH]

He's got a terrible supporting cast, I'm not trying to argue any different. But Kurashev is a really skilled little player.

He’s really sturdy on his skates and a really decent forechecker; hes still always been way worse than the sum of his parts. He works hard like a coaches son would, but he just isn’t that good. As his 2022-2023 numbers suggest. I would be extremely cautious if I was Kyle Davidson.

 

[WarriorofTime]

He's got a terrible supporting cast, I'm not trying to argue any different. But Kurashev is a really skilled little player.

He's got some skill and doubled his point total from a year ago in the same number of games. I wouldn't oversell it though. Ideally he'd be a skilled guy on a third line and he will be of prime age in a couple of seasons.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Honestly, the Calder Trophy much like many of the other trophies have become a popularity contest and not who is better player trophy.