How big is the problem?
As of March 9th, there have been 109,577 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3809 deaths. This means that there is a 3.5% case fatality rate, or 3.5% of people that we know to be infected with the disease, have died. However, as it is early in our understanding of the outbreak, it is
likely that there are many more people infected but we are not detecting them because they are experiencing mild symptoms. A larger number of cases would lower the death rate, so its possible we will see this number go down with time.
Comparing COVID-19 to two other coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, we can see that the COVID-19 outbreak is already much more widespread, although seems to have a lower death rate.
We can also compare COVID-19 to another widespread respiratory virus that we encounter each winter: influenza. As of March 9th in the US, there are a total of
423 cases of COVID-19 and 19 deaths. In comparison, there have been at least 34 million cases of
influenza detected and 20,000 deaths in the US so far this year. Most of the cases of COVID-19 so far have been detected in California and Washington. So overall, the immediate risk of infection in most of the US is currently very low, and the number of people currently afflicted pales in comparison to influenza which is a viral illness that contributes to a huge amount of morbidity and mortality every year.
Comparing the spread of COVID-19 to other public health concerns, such as chronic disease, also helps to shed some light on the magnitude of the problem. Currently about
1.21 million people in the US have cardiovascular disease, and
859,000 people die each year of heart disease and stroke –
thats of all deaths! Many of the chronic diseases we face today that ultimately lead to heart disease and stroke – hypertension, obesity, type 2 diabetes, hyperlipidemia, metabolic syndrome, fatty liver, chronic kidney disease – can be prevented and/or treated through lifestyle factors. These factors include regular activity, healthy nutrition, stress management, good sleep, and avoiding substances such as tobacco and alcohol. Although these diseases affect a huge proportion of our population, because they are
slow to develop over years and decades, they dont seem to raise the same level of concern as we currently have over COVID-19.
Given the information we have to date, its likely the coronavirus will continue to spread and more cases will be identified. By practicing basic respiratory infection precautions and doing our part to stay informed and take the outbreak seriously, hopefully we can work together to prevent this from becoming a global problem. Currently, the risk of transmission in most countries around the world, including the US, is very low and those who are generally healthy are expected to develop mild-moderate symptoms. Lets also use this outbreak as a reminder that every year the flu affects and kills huge numbers of people, and if we bring the same level of concern and precautions to every flu season that we have now, we may be able to prevent unnecessary suffering and deaths each winter. Additionally, the epidemic of chronic disease we are experiencing, although much more insidious than the evolution of COVID-19 over the past several weeks, is one we have a lot of control over and a lot of potential to reverse if we can bring a similar level concern to that we have raised for the coronavirus.