Does matthews win if he gets 70 but isn’t top scorer on the Leafs?
There's so many ways this can play out still. You can't ask a question like this without also suggesting what the other 3 will do, because it's impossible to say without that.
70 goals while the other 3 top/push 140 points? Nope - Matthews won't win.
If the other 3 top out at ~125-130 points, and Matthews does 70+....maybe even 75+? Much better shot for Matthews.
I think Nylander (or Marner technically whose catching up too) topping Matthews in points would also be a negative for Matthews in the hart race - but I think that's less important than what Matthews himself does and in relation to MacKinnon/Kucherov/McDavid. He could still win hart even if Nylander tops him by 1 point, if he has enough goals and if the 3 leaders slow down some.
McDavid. He’s more important to his team than the other 2 guys to their teams.
I really feel Edmonton will crumble if you take him the roster as for the other 2 if you take them off those teams will still ok.
McDavid is most important to his team in a vacuum, 100%. No one denies that - he's the best player for a reason. But this year, Kucherov carried a weaker Tampa team all year long, so in terms of "team value/being relied on" he's up there too and possibly ahead of McDavid.
Also - McDavid just won last year's hart in a landslide. Voters love rewarding other players - in fact to win back to back harts, usually the bar is much higher in the 2nd year. Those are all dynamics that play against him.
The only reason McDavid is in the running for Hart this year in my opinion is the absolutely insane turnaround both he and Oilers had after the first 6 weeks of the season being a complete write-off. If you changed nothing to McDavid's point totals nor Oiler's place in standing today - but if they had accomplished that by being consistent all year without the horrid start - I thin McDavid's case for the hart would be almost inexistant today vs the other 3. But - that turnaround was tremendous and spectacular, and that's the biggest reason he's in the running for hart I think.