Mikko Rantanen - MOOSE - 96

[JH21]

I guess this is where we differ, I do care because it's exactly these matchups that get exposed in the playoffs, not to mention they are the guys needed to play larger roles when injuries happen. This is also disregarding the changes that would be needed to change up the lineup. We can't physically ice a lineup with all of Lehkonen/Colton/Manson/Girard next year like in your first example - this has been shown to you ad naseum. Plus if the 4th line is playing 5 minutes a night it means our top guys are playing even more minutes, and it was clear last year that this wore them out and wasn't effective. In fact, your entire strategy was more or less played out last year and we had proof what lack of depth leads to, especially when injuries hit.

If you don't trust me, trust Bednar. He literally said at a presser following the deadline "You're not winning solely because of depth, but you're definitely not winning without it"

I also don't think my Jarvis/Drouin numbers are assumptions. They are projections based on very real stastical data, added to the eye test that these guys are plain and simple talented top-6 NHL-level players, with a lot more ability than they have shown yet in the league (each for different reasons). Plus Jarvis can PK.

So yes, I'd definitely take your 2nd example especially if that forward return included Jarvis as the guy. That doesn't make me wrong, it just means we disagree.

Well sorry. It does make you wrong.

I’ve been shown nothing by nobody. We CAN ice a full lineup.

Cap at 87.5 mil

Rantanen at 12.5
Mitts at 5

Lehkonen- Mackinnon- Rantanen
Landeskog- Mittlestadt- Nichushkin
Wood- Colton- Kovalenko
3 x 950k

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
2 x 950k

Georgiev
Annunen

Still have roughly $3.2 mil in cap space.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Well sorry. It does make you wrong.

I’ve been shown nothing by nobody. We CAN ice a full lineup.

I mean...

Your math.

Taking a close look at your numbers, I believe there is a math error in there someplace. When I add up those 15 salaries, I come up with $82,915,000, not $81,895,000. Not a huge difference, but that ~$1M extra really matters here.

Because at $82,915,000 for the aforementioned 15 players, the Avs are left with $4,585,000 to sign 7 players (given a 22 man roster). That equates to $655K per player, which is below the league minimum salary. This can't be done. It certainly couldn't be done for a 23 man roster.

Hence, the numerous discussions around the Avs needing to shed a salary.

Thank you for putting forth a detailed salary listing. Appreciate the discussion.

Each time you get your math wrong, post once more.



Your math is wrong again. The total is actually $91,965,000.

You have less than $50K to work with here. Given even modest bonuses (that roll over from the year before or whatever) that often come into play, this is quite likely over the cap from the outset. Though perhaps just by a bit, so let's continue:

There is another potential problem with your 25/26 analysis. The issue is that you haven't cut a single salary of a player under contract for the 24/25 season, except potentially Giorgiev, and you have to get through that season under the cap first -with all of the current contracts - before the 25/26 season can be considered. (FYI, you didn't list O'Connor's salary in either analysis, but I believe you LTIR'd him for 24/25, and assume you have him leaving via UFA for 25/26.)

By putting a $2M salary slot for a goaltender in your 25/26 analysis above, you seem to be acknowledging that the team really can't win with two rookie/shitty goaltenders (making <$1M), and if so, I agree.

Looking back at our analysis from two days ago, cutting Giorgiev's $3.4M from the 24/25 cap and replacing him with a $2.0M goaltender, frees up $1.4M from 24/25. That would give the Avs $5.9M to sign 8 players to fill out a 23 man roster in 24/25. Which comes out to an average of $737K per player, still under the league minimum. Still can't be done.

Or the Avs could go with two rookie goaltenders in 24/25, giving them $7M to sign 8 players, which could be done at an average of <$900K per player. Or they could go with a 22 man roster, still with two rookie goaltenders, and that could be done also.

So in the end, the only way to make your 25/26 analysis above work, is to either lose Giorgiev and field a 22 man roster in 24/25, or to lose Giorgiev and go with two rookie goaltenders in 24/25.

I guess you missed this? You're not really the authority on math. Plus, it seems to be an issue that I'm projecting Drouin to be near ppg next to Mack but suddenly you have Mitts making 5M? That might be the most unrealistic assumption of all.

Now you've been shown again what the bare minimum looks like without any extra D or F on the NHL roster - less thn 500k cap space. Not sure where you're getting your numbers from but I'll have whatever you're smoking

 

[Foppa2118]

Drouin has played about 50% of his time now 5 on 5 with MacK, and wasn't a fixture on PP1 until recently. He's played about half of the time with Nate than Rantanen has.

I believe he's been on the top line the last 5 games.. he has 7 points (including 2 pointless nights)

Drouin has played 71 games this year... his first 36 (until Dec 31), he had 16 points. He's got 32 in his last 35, playing away from MacKinnon a lot of that time. The numbers match the eye test, he's been one of our best and most consistent forwards the last few months.

Things really started to click for him mid-December once he got adjusted and earned the trust of the coaching staff. It's amazing what a little confidence does for a talented player.

I think Drouin has played great this year, but Mikko is a markedly better player. Play all three together all year and Mikko should still have a lot more points than Drouin.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think Drouin has played great this year, but Mikko is a markedly better player. Play all three together all year and Mikko should still have a lot more points than Drouin.

I've never claimed that Drouin is better than Mikko - no one would be able to support such a claim. However, I do think one could argue that in a cap world, Drouin and his next contract could provide more value to our team moving forward.

 

[JH21]

I've never claimed that Drouin is better than Mikko - no one would be able to support such a claim. However, I do think one could argue that in a cap world, Drouin and his next contract could provide more value to our team moving forward.

There is no scenerio what so ever in which we are better with Drouin cap or no cap. None.

I mean...




I guess you missed this? You're not really the authority on math. Plus, it seems to be an issue that I'm projecting Drouin to be near ppg next to Mack but suddenly you have Mitts making 5M? That might be the most unrealistic assumption of all.

View attachment 844275
View attachment 844276

Now you've been shown again what the bare minimum looks like without any extra D or F on the NHL roster - less thn 500k cap space. Not sure where you're getting your numbers from but I'll have whatever you're smoking

Hey man, you’re the one who thinks Drouin can get 80 playing with Mackinnon or a slightly above league average guy like Seth Jarvis can replace even half of what Rantanen does.

So whatever you’re taking it’s much stronger than dope.

 

[ABasin]

Well sorry. It does make you wrong.

I’ve been shown nothing by nobody. We CAN ice a full lineup.

Cap at 87.5 mil

Rantanen at 12.5
Mitts at 5

Lehkonen- Mackinnon- Rantanen
Landeskog- Mittlestadt- Nichushkin
Wood- Colton- Kovalenko
3 x 950k

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
2 x 950k

Georgiev
Annunen

Still have roughly $3.2 mil in cap space.

For the 3rd consecutive time, your math is wrong. And this time, it's not close.

Assuming Rantanen at $12.5M, Mittelstadt at $5M (which won't happen IMO, but let's continue...), the rest of the signed roster at their current salaries, and 5 players at $950K, you have listed a 20 man roster with a salary total of $89,858,000. That's already $2M+ above your $87.5M cap number, not $3M+ below it. Your math is over $5M off.

And you still need to account for three more players to make up a 23 man roster.

(I'm also not sure why we'd be counting Rantanen at $12.5M for next year's $87M cap number. But either way, without proper/accurate mathematics, these cap discussions have little meaning).

 

[a mangy Meowth]

So whatever you’re taking it’s much stronger than dope.

You, on the other hand, don't appear to need any extra substances. Baseline is wacked out

 

[ABasin]

I mean...




I guess you missed this? You're not really the authority on math. Plus, it seems to be an issue that I'm projecting Drouin to be near ppg next to Mack but suddenly you have Mitts making 5M? That might be the most unrealistic assumption of all.

View attachment 844275
View attachment 844276

Now you've been shown again what the bare minimum looks like without any extra D or F on the NHL roster - less thn 500k cap space. Not sure where you're getting your numbers from but I'll have whatever you're smoking

These cap scenarios don't really mean very much if the math behind them is wrong.

While I appreciate the discussion participation, JH21's math has been wrong 3 consecutive times, and when that math has been corrected (3 consecutive times), it has shown his scenario at hand to be over the cap (3 consecutive times). 2 plus 2 does not equal 7.

I mean....I enjoy this discussion topic, and don't wish to deter anyone from engaging. But IMO it's important to have the discussion/debate with accurate math.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

I hate this f***in thread.

 

[ABasin]

You’re assuming guys like Drouin or Seth Jarvis could put up 70 points next to Mackinnon while we KNOW that Rantanen can put up 50/100 with him.

You’re willing to gamble on trading away an elite scorer and a guy who has crazy chemistry with the best player in the world for a maybe? That’s not a gamble I would be willing to take.

Guys like Jonathan Drouin and Seth Jarvis can had had every single year. They can be had because they are league average players who don’t move the needle at all.

Whereas guys like Rantanen are NEVER available for trade or in free agency.

We traded O’Reilly becauae we didn’t want to pay him and we instantly became worse.

And that large cohort of people who believe we would be better off without Rantanen are flat out wrong.

We trade:
Mikko Rantanen (extended for 8x12.5)

For:
50-60 point player signed for +/- 5 mil
A good prospect
Top 15 draft pick

Jonathan Drouin (signed for 3x4)
Sean Walker (signed for 4x4)

With Rantanen:

Lehkonen- Mackinnon- Rantanen
Landeskog- Mittlestadt- Nichuskin
Wood- Colton- Kovalenko
4th line - who cares. They play 5 minutes a night

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Bottom pair- who cares

Georgiev
Annunen

Your math is wrong yet again. What is this - the 4th time in a row?

As I've shown you before, you cannot get this roster under a $87M cap with a 23 man roster (with Mittelstadt making only $5M) without removing a current salary. Even when using the barest minimum $750K for your 4th line, 3rd pairing, and 3 extra players. FYI, the total is $87,858,000, so you couldn't do it with a 22 man roster either, and if Mittelstadt makes $6M, you couldn't do it with a 21 man roster.

It. Can. Not. Be. Done.

.....without moving a current contract.

And btw, no team is going to win while icing eight $750K league minimum players.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

Your math is wrong yet again.

As I've shown you before, you cannot get this roster under a $87M cap with a 23 man roster (with Mittelstadt making only $5M). Even when using the barest minimum $750K for your 4th line, 3rd pairing, and 3 extra players. FYI, the total is $87,858,000, so you couldn't do it with a 22 man roster either, and if Mittelstadt makes $6M, you couldn't do it with a 21 man roster.

It. Can. Not. Be. Done.

.....without moving a current contract.

And btw, no team is going to win while icing eight $750K league minimum players.

Exactly, the struggle is real and the next few years will be set up on what the approach is with Rantanen and Mittelstadt and ultimately who has to be moved to fit them in. To your point to keep our top 6 including Landeskog and some semblance of our top 4, means min salary on all other positions. This is why I am notionally pro moving Rantanen. The Avs are 1st in scoring we can sacrifice a little bit of pure offensive contibution that Rantanen provides for more balance across the roster.

 

[JH21]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

Odd take. Weirdo.

 

[LOFIN]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

You sound happy that Rantanen is injured, and we'll see how it goes without him.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

This sounds an awful lot like "I'm not an Avs fan"

 

[RECKLESS]

f*** the bullshit.

Speedy recovery combined with much needed rest for Rants!

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

That's not the same at all. We don't get a return for him when he is injured like we would if traded. Apples to oranges kind of thing. Good try though.

 

[The Moops]

Well you clowns are about to see what life without Rantanen is like.

But hey, at least we have depth and maybe Drouin can pace for 80 points lol

I didn't realize they listed injuries on the boxscore. Pretty cool!

 

[The Moops]

But hey, at least we have depth

Curse of your existence I know

 

[LTCPain75]

You guys actually read JH21's posts???

 

[The Moops]

You guys actually read JH21's posts???

Best part is that I am proud of the US public school system that they taught us basic addition. Figured Finland would have too

 

[JH21]

Best part is that I am proud of the US public school system that they taught us basic addition. Figured Finland would have too

You’re proud of the US public school system?

Isn’t is common knowledge that half you guys can’t read?

 

[The Moops]

You’re proud of the US public school system?

Isn’t is common knowledge that half you guys can’t read?

Lmao you missed the whole joke. I knew you couldn't figure out a calculator but now I know you can't read either

 

[Snow Arc]

You’re proud of the US public school system?

Isn’t is common knowledge that half you guys can’t read?

21% of adults as of 2022, good for 36th in the world.

 

[Murzu]

21% of adults as of 2022, good for 36th in the world.

This can't be right?