Kap-Steel-ZuccHe was a mid 2nd round pick for a reason, and has done fine with what those expectations should be. He was never going to be a big goal scorer; that wasn't a part of his game is entire junior career.
Foligno has seen a pretty big drop vs. what he's been the last few years as well, and Eriksson Ek is buoyed a bit by being on the #1 PP (at least early on when it was scoring).
If you're going to break up that line, I think you move Eriksson Ek up in the lineup, not just replace his winger with a decent 4th liner.
I think Greenway is a limited player in many regards, but in the right role (which he is on the Ek line) he is a really good player. I think he has a huge impact on making that line work and I think him and Ek are a perfect pairing to play a north/south forecheck/cycle/crash the net game. He really imposes his will physically on teams and teams spend a lot of time trying to do with his size in the offensive zone. He's a huge reason why they are able to establish and maintain possession on the cycle. He's easily worth his contract as a player who has a specific playtype that has a multiplier effect to create a good to elite line. Ek/Foligno and pretty much any other player is a significantly worse line. Sure, it would be great if he was this + Tuch's scoring ability but he's a really solid player.
Last year: 41-15-6 w/Greenway (116p pace), 12-7-1 (102.5p pace)
This year :14-6 w/Greenway (114p pace), 7-7-2 w/o Greenway (82p pace)
He's missed 3 total games his first 3 seasons (COVID seasons make it look like he missed more games). He got injured last year and the recovery period from that carried over into this season.
The team is better when he's on the ice, and he's paid a fair contract for what he adds for points.
Last year: 41-15-6 w/Greenway (116p pace), 12-7-1 (102.5p pace)
This year :14-6 w/Greenway (114p pace), 7-7-2 w/o Greenway (82p pace)
He's missed 3 total games his first 3 seasons (COVID seasons make it look like he missed more games). He got injured last year and the recovery period from that carried over into this season.
The team is better when he's on the ice, and he's paid a fair contract for what he adds for points.
Correlation doesn't always mean causation though. If the data says having Greenway results in 32 more points in a season, that probably means there are other factors in play.
I think last year is a more accurate window. Dec was such an easy schedule compared the the start of the year it throws the numbers off (imo).
This year he's started out slow, for sure. If he can return to the .5p/game player the he's been the last 2 years. It'll be a huge boost for MN as a team. Only Kap, Zuck, JEE, Boldy, and Hartman are .5p/game FWDs so far this year.
The last 3 full seasons Greenway for FWDs 5v5 league wide (1000 min played filter for /60):
-245th (tied) in goals, 340th (tied) /60
-53rd (tied) in assists, 42nd (tied) /60
-64th (tied) in 1st assists, 60th (tied) /60
-123 (tied) in points, 120th (tied) /60
-136th in minutes (411 FWDs meet the 1000 minutes played), 178th (tied) in ToI/game
On ice:
-85th (tied) highest GF/60
-63rd (tied), lowest GA/60
-44th (tied) GF%
Everything, except goal scoring, puts Greenway as top-6 FWD 5v5. If he had a quality shot to go with everything else in his game he'd on the PP, and getting paid big money on his next contract.
I'd wonder if the reason his production rates (*/60), and assists specifically, were as high as they were because Ek was shooting 13.2%, and Foligno was shooting 24.6% (!!!) the last two years.
I'd also wonder if the one ice numbers are a result of being a part of one of the top defensive lines in the league.
I think you can watch the guy play and see he's not driving that line, and he's not a top six winger on a good team. So when the numbers indicate that he should be, I take the numbers with a grain of salt. And when Foligno declines (like he has this year), you see those offensive numbers plummet.
He hasn’t scored 20 goals since he played for Shattuck’s 16U AAA team. The idea that he’d do it in the NHL when he barely paced that over 82 college games per season is outlandish.i was hoping greenway would be a 15-20 goal player. since he can't live upto my expectations i'd be okay trading him & dumba to make room for goal scorers.