Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, #15 Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[Nick Lang]

This very well might be a small sample, but the whole thing with prospects is you’re generally basing their projection on a small sample, so changes across a new small sample should more meaningfully shift your projection than they would for older players.

Lekkerimaki’s J20 numbers last year were pedestrian, and he was generally ranked as a mid-first rounder by mid-season, so his end of season projection as a top-10 pick was largely driven by his good performance in 26 SEL games. His more recent 20 games in the Allsvenskan plus his WJC performance should probably be weighed more heavily than his 26 SEL games last season at this point.

I think rightly or wrongly more weight is attributed to the fact he performed well in the SEL at such a young age. In regards to your re-draft question I agree he would go later. I definitely think his regression in the Allsvenskan definitely needs to be weighted more heavily now... however there are a lot of mitigating circumstances so I think a more fair measure will be how is is performing at the end of this season. By then he should have had enough time to work through any issues and make necessary adjustments. Hopefully he does because he will be judged comparatively at that point in time even though his still very young.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

All the more reason for me to just give him time and not get too caught up in a bad year. He may totally bust. Who knows? Just not going to worry about that now.

If he was destroying the Allsvenskan and the U20s would you take the same approach?

 

[sandwichbird2023]

It’s looking increasingly likely this selection was made similar to how Benning made his: Seen him good at one tournament.

Lekk ripped up the U18s. They had him rated very high. Other teams disagreed.

To be fair, we aren't the only ones rated him very highly. A lot of publications and a lot of respected members of the scouting community also had him rated very high. He does have a very good skillset, he wasn't a "reach" nor was there another player that is clearly better (ie: Tkachuk over OJ). He was a reasonable selection.

Development isn't linear, plus mono and concussion are major issues that hampered him. I'll cut him some slack this season.

 

[1440]

Have to question the Swedish coaching staff if he wasn't suffering some sort of injury. He had 1 shift in the third in which he created their best scoring chance of the period and then did not see the ice at all in overtime despite Sweden regrouping numerous time with control. Lysell also did not see the ice in OT. Put your most skilled offensive players out there when there is open ice!

 

[Raistlin]

sweden was in a shell all game until OT, I dont think they adjusted according to the flow of the game at all. Lekk was stapled to the bench all game as a 13th forward.

Regardless, yet another disappointing notch on a disappointing season. He was not really given a chance to reclaim his spot with Ost and Ohgren in the bronze game.

 

[F A N]

They can turn 20 in 2023 which is what I meant by 20 year olds. Many of the participants will be 20 well before the season ends. That’s who this tournament is really for.

And by the same token, Lekkerimaki will turn 19. Lekkerimaki is a late July birth, which makes him one of the younger players in his draft class but Cooley is an early May birth. Kemell is a late April birth. Ostlund is a March birth. Snuggerud is an early June birth and this isn't Lekkimaki's first WJC.

It's really not that uncommon for younger players to get benched in the world juniors. There is a very good reason they call it a tournament for 19 and 20 year olds. And while people want to dismiss injuries etc (mono, flu) he is also coming off a concussion he received in late november and was cleared right before the tournament.

I think everyone needs to remember that he is very young. He's 18 and will still be 18 when the season ends. Hell he may still be 18 when the canucks do their summer prospect get together after the draft.

His season hasn't been electrifying and people are likely right to have some concerns but we are are nowhere near declaring bust on a player that is one of the youngest in his league.

The fact of the matter is that players in their draft +1 year (outside of Team Canada) are often "returnees" and certainly expected to play a key role. Bo Horvat, for example, was projected as playing alongside McDavid and Reinhart and ultimately played a key shutdown defensive role. That's not saying that they are expected to play a starring role, but at the same time the expectations are hardly low.

I have time for someone saying they had others higher than Lekki, but if you're stat watching and ignoring concussion, mono, etc. Then you're opinion is just noise. Give him time, 2022 wasn't a good draft year, the 15th overall pick wasn't going to be relevant to the big team until 2024 anyway.

Except that the Canucks apparently had him ranked 7th overall. So he's the equivalent of a top 10 pick since that's where we would have drafted him.

 

[1440]

Have to question the Swedish coaching staff if he wasn't suffering some sort of injury. He had 1 shift in the third in which he created their best scoring chance of the period and then did not see the ice at all in overtime despite Sweden regrouping numerous time with control. Lysell also did not see the ice in OT. Put your most skilled offensive players out there when there is open ice!

For reference, Lekk is third on the team with a very respectable 2.78 P/60 with 3 points in just under 65 minutes of play. This puts him behind only Bystedt and Jansson. He just hasn't gotten a chance to play. Most of Sweden's forwards are in the 90-120 minute range now.

 

[bossram]

To be fair, we aren't the only ones rated him very highly. A lot of publications and a lot of respected members of the scouting community also had him rated very high. He does have a very good skillset, he wasn't a "reach" nor was there another player that is clearly better (ie: Tkachuk over OJ). He was a reasonable selection.

Development isn't linear, plus mono and concussion are major issues that hampered him. I'll cut him some slack this season.

His shooting ability is limited by the rest of his game. He doesn't get himself into scoring spots and doesn't do anything off-puck. Limits the opportunities to use his shot, which basically muffles his one plus-level trait.

EP had him in the 20s, which was IMO a more appropriate rating. I'm not a fan of shoot-only players. If they're not problem-solving at lower levels, it doesn't bode well for their ability to do it at higher levels. Which means they won't have opportunities to use the shot.

 

[VanJack]

shaping up as another first round 'bust' by the Canucks....let's face it, his performance at this year's World Jr. Tournament was just a continuation of his generally disappointing draft-plus-one year.

I suppose there's always a chance that he's a bit of a late bloomer and after two or three years in the SHL, might be worth a look in NA. But I suppose we now know the reason why he was a draft-day 'faller'.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

His shooting ability is limited by the rest of his game. He doesn't get himself into scoring spots and doesn't do anything off-puck. Limits the opportunities to use his shot, which basically muffles his one plus-level trait.

EP had him in the 20s, which was IMO a more appropriate rating. I'm not a fan of shoot-only players. If they're not problem-solving at lower levels, it doesn't bode well for their ability to do it at higher levels. Which means they won't have opportunities to use the shot.

Normally, aside from the top 3 picks, every prospects has flaws and things to work on. JL's weaknesses were mostly physical which should improve as he grows and mature. Whether he ultimately gets there, nobody knows. He was generally a highly regarded prospect so even if he bust, I wouldn't hold it against the management or scouting team too much.
Definitely not trending as well as hoped though. I'm also not a fan of drafting one dimensional scoring wingers, even if they hit, their trade value isn't as high as an OK C or D. Unless the winger is head and shoulder above the rest of the available prospect, I prefer taking a C or D. Hope JL end up being a good one for us though, we cannot afford to miss on this pick.

 

[Raistlin]

Lekk was drafted as a long term project, everyone knows this when he walked to the podium. His upside hasn't changed to me...yet, I do expect a lot more from him, but looking at his teammates, they are not faring a lot better either, so mabe its just a bad year for swedish prospects. He needs to be coached into positioning better, and for sure, he needs more mass, ultimately he needs minutes to fail and develop. I want to see him go through his whole nightmare of a year before changing my opinion of him. The sky is not close to falling yet.

 

[vanarchy]

Lekk was drafted as a long term project, everyone knows this when he walked to the podium. His upside hasn't changed to me...yet, I do expect a lot more from him, but looking at his teammates, they are not faring a lot better either, so mabe its just a bad year for swedish prospects. He needs to be coached into positioning better, and for sure, he needs more mass, ultimately he needs minutes to fail and develop. I want to see him go through his whole nightmare of a year before changing my opinion of him. The sky is not close to falling yet.

I just hope they don't rush him over to the NHL. He's had a rough year as it is.

 

[credulous]

Lekk was drafted as a long term project, everyone knows this when he walked to the podium. His upside hasn't changed to me...yet, I do expect a lot more from him, but looking at his teammates, they are not faring a lot better either, so mabe its just a bad year for swedish prospects. He needs to be coached into positioning better, and for sure, he needs more mass, ultimately he needs minutes to fail and develop. I want to see him go through his whole nightmare of a year before changing my opinion of him. The sky is not close to falling yet.

lekkerimaki is the opposite of a project. his scouting report is that he already has an nhl shot and nhl skating but his compete level is questionable

 

[Raistlin]

lekkerimaki is the opposite of a project. his scouting report is that he already has an nhl shot and nhl skating but his compete level is questionable

where did you get that report?? thats not true at all. He's one of the youngest in his draft class and very underdeveloped physically still. Pierre Mcguire said right after his name was called that hes a development player where everything is developing other than his elite shot, his skating is pretty average.

 

[sting101]

Man i really wanted Jiri Kulich.

Hope JL can get it turned the right way he looks lost

 

[credulous]

where did you get that report?? thats not true at all. He's one of the youngest in his draft class and very underdeveloped physically still. Pierre Mcguire said right after his name was called that hes a development player where everything is developing other than his elite shot, his skating is pretty average.

every 18 year old needs to put on muscle. when you call a prospect a project it usually means they have a glaring problem in their game that if they can overcome they can succeed. like they have limited top level experience. or their skating is awful. or they have poor instincts. lekkerimaki is a polished offensive player with a great shot and above average skating. he's the furthest thing from a project

corey pronman (https://theathletic.com/3321363/2022/05/31/nhl-draft-prospects/):

Lekkrimaki is a skilled winger who has various offensive elements in his game, but the clear strength of his game is his shot. He is a goal-scoring threat from the faceoff dots with a hard, accurate wrist shot and one-timer that projects to be a weapon in the NHL. He has good speed, hands and vision to generate clean entries and make plays but those aspects don’t pop like his shot. Like a lot of shooters, he leans too much on his best asset and play too much on the perimeter which isn’t ideal for a player who lacks size. Lekkerimaki projects as a quality top-six winger.

kimmelman and morreale (Mock 2022 NHL Draft: Cooley could go to Coyotes, Flyers):

Lekkerimaki (5-10, 171) has an NHL-caliber shot, with a one-timer or wrist shot he can use to pick corners. He's an excellent skater with good offensive instincts.

A pure sniper with a hard wrist shot who plays a two-way game with good hands and explosiveness.

 

[Raistlin]

every 18 year old needs to put on muscle. when you call a prospect a project it usually means they have a glaring problem in their game that if they can overcome they can succeed. like they have limited top level experience. or their skating is awful. or they have poor instincts. lekkerimaki is a polished offensive player with a great shot and above average skating. he's the furthest thing from a project

corey pronman (https://theathletic.com/3321363/2022/05/31/nhl-draft-prospects/):



kimmelman and morreale (Mock 2022 NHL Draft: Cooley could go to Coyotes, Flyers):

yeah, those are pretty bad scouting reports. esp the parts about his skating and explosiveness. Most other reports say its average.

random report online:

Jonathan Lekkerimaki Scouting Report: 2022 NHL Draft #12

Jonathan Lekkerimaki Scouting Report: Lekkerimaki had a breakout performance at the Under 18s, winning MVP and leading Sweden to gold.

lastwordonsports.com

Based on your definition of a project, his glaring weakness is he is not rounded. Most of the articles say he is a one elite trick pony and its up to his development down the line to succeed. #8 to #12 seems to be the consensus placement. He fits into my definition of a long term prospect due to age, size, and maturity of his game.

"When you rely on one skill, you will have to be better than everyone else at it, and Lekkerimäki can claim that he is. His shot is NHL-ready. The question is if he can get the rest of his play up to par in order to make the best of the chance that he will get.

There have been comments in media and by hockey fans that he could be a similar find to Elias Pettersson who shared a lot of the same characteristics in his draft year, but what separates the two Swedish players is their overall hockey IQ. Pettersson was much better in all parts of the ice than Lekkerimäki is at the moment. This should mean that the team that drafts him won’t try and turn Lekkerimäki into a centre even if the puck control and shot are there.

The comparison with Victor Olofsson, and to a lesser degree Alexander Holtz, is a better one. If all works out, there is a big chance that Lekkerimäki will score at a high rate in the NHL down the line. It comes down to his own development and whether his team will play him in an environment that allows him to succeed."

 

[F A N]

Lekk was drafted as a long term project, everyone knows this when he walked to the podium. His upside hasn't changed to me...yet, I do expect a lot more from him, but looking at his teammates, they are not faring a lot better either, so mabe its just a bad year for swedish prospects. He needs to be coached into positioning better, and for sure, he needs more mass, ultimately he needs minutes to fail and develop. I want to see him go through his whole nightmare of a year before changing my opinion of him. The sky is not close to falling yet.

lekkerimaki is the opposite of a project. his scouting report is that he already has an nhl shot and nhl skating but his compete level is questionable

where did you get that report?? thats not true at all. He's one of the youngest in his draft class and very underdeveloped physically still. Pierre Mcguire said right after his name was called that hes a development player where everything is developing other than his elite shot, his skating is pretty average.

In the end it's just a characterization. I hesitate to call Lekkerimaki a long-term project when he's a potential top 10 pick. That's normally reserved for later picks or players with who have towering physical and high ceiling athletic attributes that need further development.

With that said, Lekkerimaki was expected to require some development before he sets foot in the NHL. Does that mean he's a (long term) project?

Stepping into the NHL in their draft +1 and even draft +2 season is not the norm. But usually a top 15 forward pick who is tracking well should be close to NHL ready by the end of their draft + 3 year. Certainly, I would question ranking an under-sized forward who the team envisions needing to spend 2 years in Sweden then another two in the AHL 7th overall.

 

[RobertKron]

Taking a "long term project" at 15OA in this day and age is dumb as f***, and raises its own questions if true. Like, probably worse than just whiffing on a pick (not saying that Lekkerimaki is or isn't a whiff, here).

 

[MS]

Holden had a horrific wrist injury that never healed properly, he's a poor example.

People turning on Lekkerimaki already are the same people turning on Hughes, who turned on Hughes in 2021, who turned on Petey last year. Reactionaries who never have patience or humility and don't learn from their mistakes.

I have time for someone saying they had others higher than Lekki, but if you're stat watching and ignoring concussion, mono, etc. Then you're opinion is just noise. Give him time, 2022 wasn't a good draft year, the 15th overall pick wasn't going to be relevant to the big team until 2024 anyway.

Top NHL players in Hughes/Pettersson having growing pains isn't the same thing as being highly concerned about a guy who has 1 goal in a bad league in his draft+1.

It's probably more accurate to say that the people turning on Lekkerimaki right now are the same people who turned on Patrick White when he stunk in the NCAA in his draft+1 or turned on Juolevi when he was extremely underwhelming in London in his draft+1.

Holden's development was already going off the rails before the wrist injury. Small, weird skater, attitude issues.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

every 18 year old needs to put on muscle. when you call a prospect a project it usually means they have a glaring problem in their game that if they can overcome they can succeed. like they have limited top level experience. or their skating is awful. or they have poor instincts. lekkerimaki is a polished offensive player with a great shot and above average skating. he's the furthest thing from a project

corey pronman (https://theathletic.com/3321363/2022/05/31/nhl-draft-prospects/):



kimmelman and morreale (Mock 2022 NHL Draft: Cooley could go to Coyotes, Flyers):

I disagree with the takes.

I did so when he was drafted.

Lekkerimäki is a slight winger who isnt a strong skater and who isnt engaged enough with quite possibly the best shot in the draft.

Also he has good vision when he does have the puck and can make wonderful passes in the oZone.


He is physically very underdeveloped. He either needs to develop his skating a ton or become much stronger to be of any use in the smaller north american rink.

In the AHL he would get murdered as it now stands.

 

[Jay26]

If he was destroying the Allsvenskan and the U20s would you take the same approach?

Of course my enthusiasm and excitement would be higher but that doesn't really negate my point.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Of course my enthusiasm and excitement would be higher but that doesn't really negate my point.

You could say "but the allsvenskan is a far lesser league than SHL and the U20s are weaker now that Russia and Belarus are out, I think I will wait until next year to make any assesments."

 

[1440]

Lekkerimaki is on the 1st line today, and has looked really good so far. Nice setup on the Bystedt goal, sets up Ohgren on a breakaway the next shift with an excellent read at the defensive blueline. He continues to look dangerous and has been one of the best Swedish forwards all tournament.

 

[VanJack]

The progress of Karlsson in the SHL and Abbotsford, might offer a glimmer of hope for kid like Lekkerimaki.

Karlsson has improved every year since his draft year, and after a couple of so-so years in the Allsvenskan, he broke out last year in the SHL, breaking Petey's rookie scoring record.

And he's having a solid first year in the AHL. You can see how creative he is offensively, and in my limited viewing, seems to be addressing his biggest weakness which was skating. He's looking noticeably quicker to me.

It's a fact that sometimes players from Sweden just develop more slowly. So I guess you have to put Lekkerimaki's progress in some sort of context.