missingmika
Registered User
- Dec 9, 2006
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Super Bowl was the highest rated television program since the Moon Landing
In US TV history*
For context:
Super Bowl was the highest rated television program since the Moon Landing
As I recall, wasn't Justin Jefferson primarily a slot WR at LSU?Roman Wilson saw a lot more action in the slot this year at Michigan than out wide.
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I wonder if Beane would take a guy that had more slot usage than boundary usage with his first WR pick...
In US TV history*
For context:
I haven’t seen the world wide numbers released yet but probably safe to say they didn’t make up the 1.25 billion person delta in The world wide market.That's not really good context because it is comparing US viewership totals of one event with world viewership totals of another.
He was a boundary receiver his first two years at LSU and was moved to the slot in Joe Brady's 5 wide offense.As I recall, wasn't Justin Jefferson primarily a slot WR at LSU?
He's been decent.
There is a March 18 deadline
When Diggs signed his contract extension in 2022, only his 2022 and 2023 salaries and bonus were fully guaranteed. All of his 2024 money is currently unguaranteed, so the Bills have until March 18 to determine their course of action with Diggs. Once that date hits, Diggs’ $18.5 million salary for 2024 fully guarantees. That gives them a month to all make up their minds.
If they trade him after March 18, the new team would inherit the guaranteed money or negotiate a new contract before the season starts. They won’t release him (short of an Antonio Brown situation), since they’d be on the hook for the contract money whether he was on the team or not.
$31 million in dead-cap money
Diggs has been paid $31 million in bonuses that have yet to be accounted for on the Bills’ cap. Known as his dead-cap hit, this would accelerate onto the 2024 cap if he’s moved off the roster by trade, release, or retirement. Those hits are currently set to be collectively accounted for over the next four seasons.
This is why restructuring contracts to push the cap hit into future seasons limits your flexibility down the line. It’s also why I opined that the Bills shouldn’t restructure Diggs’ contract this offseason, so as to leave more flexibility in the 2025 offseason if he doesn’t rebound.
For reference, incurring a $31 million dead-cap hit would be the fourth-largest in NFL history. The Bills simply can’t afford to add that to their 2024 salary cap, as they are currently projected to be more than $50 million over.
$18.5 fully guaranteed isn't much. A post June 1 trade is more doable from a dead cap perspective.What does moving on from Stefon Diggs look like for Buffalo Bills’ salary cap?
Since the talk remains out there, let’s look at Stefon Diggs’ contract.www.buffalorumblings.com
1) A post-6/1 trade does not help them get under the cap by the first day of the new league year and it does not help them through the bulk of the offseason.$18.5 fully guaranteed isn't much. A post June 1 trade is more doable from a dead cap perspective.
If you watch Wilson, he's got big play potential from both the slot and outside. He looks more like a Diggs/Shakir type receiver than a slot only guy.As I recall, wasn't Justin Jefferson primarily a slot WR at LSU?
He's been decent.
Part of the reason I kicked around a hard reset idea was because of what you're mentioning. I eventually came to the conclusion that Beane is best served by holding onto Diggs and Miller one more season and then moving on from both contracts.1) A post-6/1 trade does not help them get under the cap by the first day of the new league year and it does not help them through the bulk of the offseason.
2) I do not see Beane wanting to push $22M in dead cap into 2025.
3) A post-6/1 trade means you do not get a 2024 draft pick back which reduces your ability to replace Diggs with a quality WR in the draft.
I think the far and away two most likely options with Diggs this off season is he is back without touching his contract or he's back after a base salary restructure to create $13M in 2024 cap space and commit to Diggs on the Bills in '24 & '25.
That's true, but of you can trade money in money out, it can be for a position that you don't otherwise address.1) A post-6/1 trade does not help them get under the cap by the first day of the new league year and it does not help them through the bulk of the offseason.
I don't see Beane wanting Diggs' $27mil cap hit in '25 either. Something has got to give.2) I do not see Beane wanting to push $22M in dead cap into 2025.
Same answer as 1. You don't need a draft pick for Diggs.3) A post-6/1 trade means you do not get a 2024 draft pick back which reduces your ability to replace Diggs with a quality WR in the draft.
Now, I'm not predicting what will happen, I'm posing an viable alternative where the common narrative is that restructuring is the only option. I believe it's the best option, I just don't think it is the only viable option, especially given that for the type of restructuring Diggs' contract requires, it takes two to tango.I think the far and away two most likely options with Diggs this off season is he is back without touching his contract or he's back after a base salary restructure to create $13M in 2024 cap space and commit to Diggs on the Bills in '24 & '25.
No doubtI haven’t seen the world wide numbers released yet but probably safe to say they didn’t make up the 1.25 billion person delta in The world wide market.
There is no real NFL trade where you "trade money in money out" given the dead cap for previously paid bonuses that have not hit the salary cap yet.That's true, but of you can trade money in money out, it can be for a position that you don't otherwise address.
I don't see Beane wanting Diggs' $27mil cap hit in '25 either. Something has got to give.
Same answer as 1. You don't need a draft pick for Diggs.
Now, I'm not predicting what will happen, I'm posing an viable alternative where the common narrative is that restructuring is the only option. I believe it's the best option, I just don't think it is the only viable option, especially given that for the type of restructuring Diggs' contract requires, it takes two to tango.
I doubt Beane is planning on moving on from Diggs after 2024.Part of the reason I kicked around a hard reset idea was because of what you're mentioning. I eventually came to the conclusion that Beane is best served by holding onto Diggs and Miller one more season and then moving on from both contracts.
That's true, but of you can trade money in money out, it can be for a position that you don't otherwise address.
Bring him in as whatever role he wants. He'd be an outstanding advisory addition to the staff. Shocking move by Shanahan.
Yup. And maybe this late in the process there’s no good DC openings for him. If so, he’d be a perfect senior defensive advisor and assistant head coach. He’d offer so much of what we both want:Agree. He did a better job against Mahomes than McDermott did.
Wilks has Carolina connections, so they definitively know each other well.
Yup. And maybe this late in the process there’s no good DC openings for him. If so, he’d be a perfect senior defensive advisor and assistant head coach. He’d offer so much of what we both want:
-McDermott adjacent scheme but with a different flavor, bringing new ideas into the room
-Legitimate DC experience in case Babich needs help or is in over his head
-HC experience if McDermott needs help in the game management arena when he wants to take over D playcaling for himself.
If I knew he was available I’d be beating the drum for him as DC. But maybe a more senior advisor role would be an even better fit.
Could always go Gregg Williams route and just pay someone to go for his knees.I've been thinking through how you beat the Chiefs and Mahomes. Some thoughts and concepts which I've been playing around with:
The 1990 Giants took on the Bills juggernaut offense and used possession offense and a defense which limited big plays to win.
The 2001 Patriots used the Giants blueprint to do much of the same to the Rams which was done to the Bills.
The 2007 and 2011 Giants had a similar script to the 1990 Giants and 2001 Patriots, but added a wrinkle. Spagnuolo used multiple defensive ends in his front to get a rush on Brady, with the goal of moving him from his spot and throwing timing off. In 2007, Strahan and Umenyiora played at end with Kiwanuka mixed in. Tuck was shifted from DE to DT on many downs. On some downs, they had all four defensive linemen as DTs. 2011 was similar, with JPP and Umenyiora at end and Tuck at DT a lot.
The Bills and 49ers tried a lot of these concepts, and they both almost won. Some trends:
- Possess the ball to limit the opponent's offensive chances. Bills did a really good job of this in the divisional round, holding the ball for 37 minutes and rushing the ball 39 times. The Bills forced only one punt in the game and had the fluke fumble in the end zone. So the defense didn't really stop the Chiefs as much as the Bills limited chances. And it almost worked.
- Get the QB off the spot and disrupt timing. The 49ers did a great job in the Super Bowl. They sacked Mahomes 3 times and pressured him a total of 9 times. They also forced 5 punts and 2 turnovers. The 49ers were undone defensively because their offense could not take advantage early on and the muffed punt gave KC new life.
- Both the Bills and 49ers were using ends at the DT position.
A year earlier the Eagles tried a lot of the same concepts. They held the ball for almost 36 minutes of the game and ran 32 times. They sacked Mahomes twice and pressured him a total of 7 times, a 23% pressure rate, using a lot of depth on their front to get that done. They didn't really limit the Chief offensively, only forcing 2 punts.
What I saw in all games was an inability to get up on the Chiefs early and force a one-dimensional game, and take away options from Andy Reid. In all of these games, the Chiefs combined excellent play calling and Mahomes to score on almost all their second half drives.
So I went back to Super Bowl 55 for the outlier. What happened in that game?
- Tampa ran a 3-4 defense which they shifted into a 2-4 a lot. They went 2-4 most of the game with JPP and Barrett outside, and two ILBs with a nickel back. Gholston and Vea rotated in on the front. Not a lot of difference from what McDermott runs.
- Todd Bowles' defense got 21 pressures on Mahomes. 3 sacks, 6 blitzes, 11 hurries, and 7 hits. Most of that was from the front 4. Barrett accounted for 6, Suh 4, JPP 2, Vea 2, Gholston 2.
- Tampa started slowly and so did KC. Tampa scored a TD, punted twice and loss of downs once. During that time, KC also started slow, punting 3 times and kicking a FG.
- Here's where the Bucs put the game away. Their next 4 drives, they scored 3 TDs and a FG, while the next 4 KC drives were 2 FGs, end of half, and an interception. That included KC getting the 2nd half kickoff. At the end of that stretch, the score was 31-9. Tampa had a 3 touchdown lead, assuming KC would convert at least one 2 point conversion.
Strategy:
- Possess the ball. Run and throw to open players short. Brady threw the ball 29 times for 21 completions. 13 of 29 passes were for over 10 yards, completing 8. 3 of those throws were short passes to Fournette, who ran the pass for a completion of over 10 yards. So really, 5 of Brady's completions traveled over 10 yards in the air. He tried five other passes over 10 yards and they were incomplete or drew penalties. Tampa ran the ball 33 times. They committed no turnovers.
- Get up on KC early with your defensive strategy, because you know that Reid is going to figure it out, and Mahomes is great late. Don't waste possessions. Take your best shots at their defense early. Get a lead which takes Reid away from what he wants to do.
- Pressure Mahomes and force him to move, but keep a spy on him. TB only allowed him to run for 33 yards because they rushed while keeping lane integrity (which SF did really well) but TB also spied him. Take away the deep game and force the Chiefs to run plays under pressure. SF did this really well early, and so did Tampa.