The Blues best hopes are what, 8th overall, but most likely somewhere around 10-12?
Good going Minnesota, 3-2 lead
Assuming every team below us plays at a 10% better point capture rate than they have all season (already wishful thinking). Here is where we will finish with various point capture for us.
Current Point capture (.523) - Tied for 9th
-10% (.423) - 8th
-20% (.323) - 8th
-30% (.223) - Tied 5th
-40 (.123) - Tied for 3rd
.000 - tied for 3rd
So I think this shows that top 3 is almost impossible. Top 7 is highly unlikely. 8th is about the best we could hope for but a lot would have to break right. Calgary got rid of a lot of assets, so they should play worse. I'd add them to the pile of teams we are unlikely to pass. So we are looking at 9th for the best. Pittsburgh lost a big piece as did NJ. We stayed put. So its possible they pass us, but not guaranteed.
On the flip side, it would be tough to make the playoffs being 8 points out, though not impossible. We could fairly easily be the best non-playoff team, being 3 points out. That would put the worst case scenario at picking 16th.
I'd say we are picking 12-15ish. Sure does show that when people were saying, "man that come back is going to hurt us", they weren't wrong. Would be nice to have 6-10 less points right now.