Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills Offseason 2022-23

[WeDislikeEich]

Sucks so bad his post season run is over. It was going to be historic, but going through KC will always be a tough task:

At the moment, It feels so daunting thinking about having to go through KC every year in the playoffs to get to a super bowl. And looking ahead to next season, the regular season feels so meaningless right now.
All I care about is what happens in the playoffs and whether or not they can beat KC when it counts (if given the opportunity). Im sick of feeling like KC’s little brother.

Click to read more...

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Well, if Dorsey is smart, he stays with Allen over staying with Daboll.

Staying with the Bills gives Dorsey way more power as an OC with a defensive minded head coach vs what would happen on Daboll's staff.

And Allen vs whomever is under center for the Giants...

This. Unless McBeane have zero intention of promoting him to OC, i just don't see how leaving would make sense.

I'm resigned to losing Daboll & part of me wants to see him shove it to the group of ungrateful Bills fans who drastically under appreciate him.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

I don’t want to lose Daboll but There’s no doubt in my mind that he is as good as gone.

 

[OkimLom]

Well, if Dorsey is smart, he stays with Allen over staying with Daboll.

Staying with the Bills gives Dorsey way more power as an OC with a defensive minded head coach vs what would happen on Daboll's staff.

And Allen vs whomever is under center for the Giants...

I could see Dorsey becoming the OC with maybe someone to help him with game planning. I wouldn't be shocked one bit to see Mike Shula here in some capacity for the offense. Panthers connection with Sean/Beane/Dorsey.

 

[Buffaloed]

Continued from Buffalo Bills - Divisional round: Bills v. Chiefs 1/23/2022 6:30PM

 

[buffalowing88]

I could see Dorsey becoming the OC with maybe someone to help him with game planning. I wouldn't be shocked one bit to see Mike Shula here in some capacity for the offense. Panthers connection with Sean/Beane/Dorsey.

Idk, Shula was not very highly regarded in Carolina. He's a persona non grata in Charlotte these days. I'd turn on sports talk radio down here and that's all I'd hear from like 2014-2017. He makes Chan Gailey look downright modest when it comes to an affinity for screen passes. He'd let Newton throw two straight-line deep balls along the sideline every game to "mix it up" and then every other pass was a screen.

I don't think our QB with a cannon arm needs to be relying solely on screens haha.

 

[Selanne00008]

So what do we even draft? WR? OL? DB? It's gotta be a combo of those the first few rounds right? WR are fine now, but aging. Davis coming through helps a lot, and McKenzie is a solid stable piece.

I'm thinking DB, then WR/OL or flip those last two.

 

[Husko]

So what do we even draft? WR? OL? DB? It's gotta be a combo of those the first few rounds right? WR are fine now, but aging. Davis coming through helps a lot, and McKenzie is a solid stable piece.

I'm thinking DB, then WR/OL or flip those last two.

Interior OL. I've already decided Linderbaum will be my guy. Just imagine the cool announcer calls when he pancakes someone. "AARON DONALD JUST GOT LINDER BOMBED"

 

[OkimLom]

At the moment, It feels so daunting thinking about having to go through KC every year in the playoffs to get to a super bowl. And looking ahead to next season, the regular season feels so meaningless right now.
All I care about is what happens in the playoffs and whether or not they can beat KC when it counts (if given the opportunity). Im sick of feeling like KC’s little brother.

There's nothing daunting about it. We used to get our a** handed to us by KC. They blew us out last playoffs, and during the regular season. This past season we caught up to them. We beat them once at home, and we handed the game to them because of our own mistakes. It's not a matter of IF we beat them, but WHEN we beat them. It's a progress, and we're trending in the right direction of scenarios you want to see the team grow from. Hopefully it grows a killer instinct in this team seeing that they allowed KC off the hook. You can't take teams lightly, especially the great ones.

This was a Great Team beating another Great Team. And it took OT to make it happen. It happens all the time, It's going to happen again.

Buffalo took the past two Super Bowl champions to OT after coming from behind this season. I would've loved to have seen them take that next leap, but I think they have taken that next step.

If I'm Buffalo's opponents next year, I would be scared to face them. They are going to have that chip on their shoulder, and looking to take no prisoners.

 

[OkimLom]

Idk, Shula was not very highly regarded in Carolina. He's a persona non grata in Charlotte these days. I'd turn on sports talk radio down here and that's all I'd hear from like 2014-2017. He makes Chan Gailey look downright modest when it comes to an affinity for screen passes. He'd let Newton throw two straight-line deep balls along the sideline every game to "mix it up" and then every other pass was a screen.

I don't think our QB with a cannon arm needs to be relying solely on screens haha.

I'm not saying that's what they SHOULD do, I just think that's what Buffalo WOULD do. They love their familiarity with their staff. I don't think he would implement those screens, mainly because the offense here would have a different strength in terms of weapons. In Carolina he had Olson and pretty much nobody else for Newton. If I remember their reliance on the screen game really hit when CMC arrived. And for what it's worth he was able to squeeze out a 1000 yard season out of Benjamin, but that was in 2014.

 

[brian_griffin]

A lot here. Hang with me.

On the weekend:
(Posted after the Bucs came back to tie the Rams

That was one of the worst collapses I have seen. Wow

That didn't age well, did it?

On the coaching:

Yeah, Allen has gotta be peeved. He's not a dick like Rodgers or Brady (yet) so he's not going to call out the coaching but he needs to have an active role in who we put on the sidelines moving forward. Beane's a smart guy so I'm sure he already knows this but he may as well view Allen as co-GM when it comes to the OC selection once Daboll leaves.

And our window is open but if it's going to stay open we need to weaponize the defense. Like you said, the Chiefs are probably winning it all this year and will be right there again next season. If we want to use the window while we can, we need a DC who takes risks. I appreciate everything Frazier has done for us but that coverage on the last 13 seconds combined with the refusal to blitz is the biggest reason we lost. I can't get over it, I just can't.

(and)

The team doesn’t need to be fixed. The coaching needs to improve. The two best football teams in the world just played an incredible game, and at the end of the day, the Bills win if the coach doesn’t choke. I believe in McD. He’s improved every year. It sucks terribly, but there is no big change necessary.

^^(@truthbluth) This is where I was at immediately after the game.

Regardless of who stays among the coaches, who leaves, and who replaces them, the Bills coaching organization need to do three things if they want the team to move to the next level. All staffs spend a lot of time on the Offensive, Defensive, and Special teams game plans and practicing for those. There are 3 additional areas where I feel the Bills are deficient, and need to focus on if they expect to get to the next level. The following make a key difference in one-score games, and therefore overall record, home-field and other advantages. In no particular order:

1. Coaches challenges. McDermott, and whomever advises him, have a poor success rate. I'm okay with "wasting" a challenge (and being charged a time out) in order to have, net effect, an extended time out to give the D or the O a rest, or to setup a series of pre-set plays on offense, etc., given a game situation, but I think those scenarios are <10% of the challenges the Bills have made in McD's tenure. Their "system" for challenges is poor. There are better teams out there - Bills need to upgrade.

2. Game clock management. Last night's game aside - and this is not recency-bias, the McDermott Bills have had too many situations where they mis-manage the game clock on both sides of the ball. They really need to focus on this, because it will be the difference in a few games a year. Again, whatever system they are using is poor, whether it's their flowchart for situations (score, yard line, down, time remaining, timeouts remaining, etc.), or their communication on and off the field, or the situational awareness of the players, etc. It can and should be upgraded.

3. Penalties and "working the referees". Bills, in too many games, either take too many penalties, or fail to push back at the referees real-time when egregious incompetence happens.

and IMO, Fraser may or may not be gone. He's been a head coach (HC) before. And I don't think last night's game ending tarnishes his attractiveness. He's a clear upgrade to many of the other defensive coordinators (DCs) around the league, and would have that influence as a HC. The question is how other teams view him as a HC option.

Reflecting, Bills need:

- Cover corner opposite of White
- Cover safety/small linebacker
- space eating DT
- dominant pass rusher (free agency or trade can get this done)
- interior OL
- speedy outside receiver
- power RB

@Der Jaeger: do you favor the Bills sticking with, in essence, a "base nickel" or 4-2-5 scheme if Fraser is gone? I'm fine with it, personally.

Other thoughts from last nights game:

- I like that the Bills were trying to get Singletary going. However, I felt we tried a bit too hard to force runs that weren't there.
- The defensive holding call when we had KC stopped at the 10 yard line was one of the stupidest penalties you can take. That's a 4 point swing.
- The best defensive play series was holding KC to a field goal after the big punt return.
- I fully expect Allen to go into the stratosphere next year. It was the finest Buffalo QB performance I have ever seen. Two clutch TD drives in the 4th quarter with the season on the line? Unbelievable. Heck, it might be the best QB performance I've seen on any team. Just. Wow.
- Overall, Like the TN game, this is on the D. Need a big stop, couldn't get it.

Bills needed to run a little to get the defense a rest. Maybe should have done more option-type plays. Agree with the rest of your post.

The Bills lack of athleticism is killing them on D. They're basically a team of plumbers that can do the fundamentals but can't make big plays.

Not disagreeing, but I'll flip it another way. You don't need to rely on big plays if your unit is well-coached and rock-solid in scheme and cohesion (think Patriots plug-and-play on defense for many years). KC has the highest concentration of big-play offensive players in the AFC. I'd rather 11 guys (and a few subs) who grade as "B"s or better, than swapping out a few of those for A+ guys but having to settle for a couple C's in order to get the cap to fit. Bills picked apart the guy who subbed in for Matthieu last night. I don't know that I want to risk that. I know I'm setting up a straw-man / false equivalency, but I'd rather not weaken any links in order to temper-harden a couple.

Yep. This staff certainly isn't afraid to slowly develop guys (by NFL standards) then put trust in them.

I'm not expecting any big FA acquisitions this offseason given the tight cap & the fact they are already deep at tbe majority of positions.

I can only really see sense in adding another WR if Beasley walks. If that happens - the new guy basically needs to be a Beasley clone.

McKenzie will have first shot as the Beasley replacement as the slot receiver.

The Bills should have been 15-2 this season.
Do the right thing Beane, don't let sentiment get in the way.

Thought about this lying in bed last night. Recap which games the Bills won, vs. the Bills lost, vs. their opponent won. Here's my view:

Bills wins:
@ Dolphins
Washington
Texans
@Chiefs regular season
Dolphins
Jets
@Saints
Panthers
@Patriots
Falcons (although it took a while to get on track)
Jets
Patriots Wild Card

Bills lost / beat themselves:
@Titans
@Jaguars
Chiefs playoffs (if we're willing to acknowledge that had the Bills hung on to win, the Chiefs would say the same thing, missing the FG and XP, and also allowing 5/5 4th down conversions, including TDs.

Opponents wins:
Steelers
Colts

Push:
Patriots
@Buccaneers

Best game of the season regardless of result

Best 4-game playoff weekend ever, in totality, and will likely never be topped.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Tough day folks. All I can think of is how does the D let KC go from their own 25 to the Bills 32 yd line in under 13 seconds. Bills need a Middle Line backer. I have no problem with Milano. Also asking him to cover Kelce, terrible coaching decision in OT. Time for Bills to move on Edmunds IMO. For as athletic as he is, he has never impressed me by what is between his ears. Also he does not lead the Bills D as a Middle Linebacker should. Add a blue chip MLB in the off season and another OLB to compliment Milano. Continue to develop Oiliver, Phillips, Basham, Epenesa, and Rousseau on the front. Tre White back will help tremendously if he can be near 100% again.

 

[brian_griffin]

On the overtime:

NFL's OT rules are complete, utter garbage.

Overtime rules in the NFL are brain dead. Whoever won the coin toss was going to win this game.

This is why I don’t like NFL overtime rules.
how is it fair that the other team has no chance to try to equalise.

They should allow other team to get the ball too in overtime regardless of coin toss.

The NFL OT rules are better than they used to be, but it's still BS that it just comes down to a coin toss.

Exactly. It used to be sudden death, like in NHL playoff hockey, FG on first possession could win it.

Don't mind losing this game as much as I hate the NFL OT rules. The coin toss winner has such a huge advantage.

You'd think anyone in the NFL who came up with the OT rules would at least make it so if the winner of the coin toss scores a TD the opposing team has 1 chance to match said team with a TD as well.
Coming in peace.

I'm not blaming the OT rules. I'm fine keeping them; they are better than the sudden death on any score, including a FG, that used to be for all games, and was for playoffs too (reg. season and playoff OT were out of sync for a season, I think).

One can likely successfully argue that, come playoffs, most all of the playoff team offenses are capable of driving the field to score on an initial possession. Scared of losing the coin toss? Don't play to tie in regulation, on either side of the ball.

Have your defense stop their offense if you lose the coin toss.

Another poster offered up some potential OT rule changes. Here's a rule change I'll propose: Revert to the old rule of a touchback on any kick (initial kickoff, subsequent punt, etc.) placing the ball for the change of possession at the 20 yard line. The line was moved from the 20 to the 25 to increase scoring, and reduce the probability of high-momentum collisions on returns for balls returned.

 

[buffalowing88]

I'm not saying that's what they SHOULD do, I just think that's what Buffalo WOULD do. They love their familiarity with their staff. I don't think he would implement those screens, mainly because the offense here would have a different strength in terms of weapons. In Carolina he had Olson and pretty much nobody else for Newton. If I remember their reliance on the screen game really hit when CMC arrived. And for what it's worth he was able to squeeze out a 1000 yard season out of Benjamin, but that was in 2014.

Totally understand. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me regardless of his rep in Carolina.

That's a good point about Cam not having the same kind of weapons. Olsen was far and away the only legitimate target for the majority of the time Shula was there. The 2-3 deep passes would be to Ginn and never connected to begin with.

He did get infatuated with the screens with CMC in particular. Which, I get to some extent. But he was definitely dicking around with that with Mike Effin' Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart beforehand as well. I worry he's going to look at Singletary's quickness if he comes here and immediately try to replicate that.

We'll see, though. It always surprises me how he sticks around and pops back up somewhere in the football world every few years even though his results have always been...underwhelming.

 

[buffalowing88]

A lot here. Hang with me.

On the weekend:
(Posted after the Bucs came back to tie the RamsThat didn't age well, did it?

On the coaching:
(and)

This is where I was at immediately after the game.

Regardless of who stays among the coaches, who leaves, and who replaces them, the Bills coaching organization need to do three things if they want the team to move to the next level. All staffs spend a lot of time on the Offensive, Defensive, and Special teams game plans and practicing for those. There are 3 additional areas where I feel the Bills are deficient, and need to focus on if they expect to get to the next level. The following make a key difference in one-score games, and therefore overall record, home-field and other advantages. In no particular order:

1. Coaches challenges. McDermott, and whomever advises him, have a poor success rate. I'm okay with "wasting" a challenge (and being charged a time out) in order to have, net effect, an extended time out to give the D or the O a rest, or to setup a series of pre-set plays on offense, etc., given a game situation, but I think those scenarios are <10% of the challenges the Bills have made in McD's tenure. Their "system" for challenges is poor. There are better teams out there - Bills need to upgrade.

2. Game clock management. Last night's game aside - and this is not recency-bias, the McDermott Bills have had too many situations where they mis-manage the game clock on both sides of the ball. They really need to focus on this, because it will be the difference in a few games a year. Again, whatever system they are using is poor, whether it's their flowchart for situations (score, yard line, down, time remaining, timeouts remaining, etc.), or their communication on and off the field, or the situational awareness of the players, etc. It can and should be upgraded.

3. Penalties and "working the referees". Bills, in too many games, either take too many penalties, or fail to push back at the referees real-time when egregious incompetence happens.

and IMO, Fraser may or may not be gone. He's been a head coach (HC) before. And I don't think last night's game ending tarnishes his attractiveness. He's a clear upgrade to many of the other defensive coordinators (DCs) around the league, and would have that influence as a HC. The question is how other teams view him as a HC option.

@Der Jaeger: do you favor the Bills sticking with, in essence, a "base nickel" or 4-2-5 scheme if Fraser is gone? I'm fine with it, personally.

Bills needed to run a little to get the defense a rest. Maybe should have done more option-type plays. Agree with the rest of your post.

Not disagreeing, but I'll flip it another way. You don't need to rely on big plays if your unit is well-coached and rock-solid in scheme and cohesion (think Patriots plug-and-play on defense for many years). KC has the highest concentration of big-play offensive players in the AFC. I'd rather 11 guys (and a few subs) who grade as "B"s or better, than swapping out a few of those for A+ guys but having to settle for a couple C's in order to get the cap to fit. Bills picked apart the guy who subbed in for Matthieu last night. I don't know that I want to risk that. I know I'm setting up a straw-man / false equivalency, but I'd rather not weaken any links in order to temper-harden a couple.
McKenzie will have first shot as the Beasley replacement as the slot receiver.

Thought about this lying in bed last night. Recap which games the Bills won, vs. the Bills lost, vs. their opponent won. Here's my view:

Bills wins:
@ Dolphins
Washington
Texans
@Chiefs regular season
Dolphins
Jets
@Saints
Panthers
@Patriots
Falcons (although it took a while to get on track)
Jets
Patriots Wild Card

Bills lost / beat themselves:
@Titans
@Jaguars
Chiefs playoffs (if we're willing to acknowledge that had the Bills hung on to win, the Chiefs would say the same thing, missing the FG and XP, and also allowing 5/5 4th down conversions, including TDs.

Opponents wins:
Steelers
Colts

Push:
Patriots
@Buccaneers

Best 4-game playoff weekend ever, in totality, and will likely never be topped.

The game clock management seems to be a continual issue with McDermott. It's nothing completely atrocious like we see every season with McCarthy but he doesn't seem as worried about the minutiae when it comes to the clock as other coaches. He needs to find someone on the staff who he can turn to for that because he's fine as a delegator and that clearly is just not his thing.

 

[TehDoak]

....And if you haven't seen this angle of the 4th and 4 run...



What a waste of a superhuman effort by allen.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

On the overtime:




Exactly. It used to be sudden death, like in NHL playoff hockey, FG on first possession could win it.



I'm not blaming the OT rules. I'm fine keeping them; they are better than the sudden death on any score, including a FG, that used to be for all games, and was for playoffs too (reg. season and playoff OT were out of sync for a season, I think).

One can likely successfully argue that, come playoffs, most all of the playoff team offenses are capable of driving the field to score on an initial possession. Scared of losing the coin toss? Don't play to tie in regulation, on either side of the ball.

Have your defense stop their offense if you lose the coin toss.

Another poster offered up some potential OT rule changes. Here's a rule change I'll propose: Revert to the old rule of a touchback on any kick (initial kickoff, punt, etc.) placing the ball for the change of possession at the 20 yard line. The line was moved from the 20 to the 25 to increase scoring, and reduce the probability of high-momentum collisions on returns for balls returned.

Just play a quarter of football for ot. If it's still tied, play a second. Or something similar. Right now ot in playoffs is too heavily weighted to the team winning the coin toss. That way, teams have to play offense and defense to win in ot.

And now I've said enough on that

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

On the overtime:




Exactly. It used to be sudden death, like in NHL playoff hockey, FG on first possession could win it.



I'm not blaming the OT rules. I'm fine keeping them; they are better than the sudden death on any score, including a FG, that used to be for all games, and was for playoffs too (reg. season and playoff OT were out of sync for a season, I think).

One can likely successfully argue that, come playoffs, most all of the playoff team offenses are capable of driving the field to score on an initial possession. Scared of losing the coin toss? Don't play to tie in regulation, on either side of the ball.

Have your defense stop their offense if you lose the coin toss.

Another poster offered up some potential OT rule changes. Here's a rule change I'll propose: Revert to the old rule of a touchback on any kick (initial kickoff, subsequent punt, etc.) placing the ball for the change of possession at the 20 yard line. The line was moved from the 20 to the 25 to increase scoring, and reduce the probability of high-momentum collisions on returns for balls returned.

Or...just play out an extra quarter (shorten the length of time if you want) of football. There isn't a need for elaborate overtime rules that change the game.

 

[brian_griffin]

The game clock management seems to be a continual issue with McDermott. It's nothing completely atrocious like we see every season with McCarthy but he doesn't seem as worried about the minutiae when it comes to the clock as other coaches. He needs to find someone on the staff who he can turn to for that because he's fine as a delegator and that clearly is just not his thing.

It's not atrocious, but it is bad. We fans question it far more than we praise it. When you win a lot of games easily, it perhaps keeps you from focusing the time and attention on it that it deserves. Then you think of someone like Belichek who has been coaching longer than McDermott has been alive (literally), and you'll see that it is ingrained in him.

I have no idea how the Bills make decisions, who does it, what process they use, what data they use, who sorts and funnels the info., etc.

There should be some kind of "slide rule" type chart with down, distance to go, time remaining, number of time outs, etc., on both sides of the ball which determines when TO is called and not called, how much clock to allow to run down, etc.

 

[brian_griffin]

Just play a quarter of football for ot. If it's still tied, play a second. Or something similar. Right now ot in playoffs is too heavily weighted to the team winning the coin toss. That way, teams have to play offense and defense to win in ot.

And now I've said enough on that

I'd be fine with that. But until they change the rules, I won't blame them.


Separate topic:
I only care about 3 things moving forward:
1) The Bills mental optimism; Allen just one among them. This concern is primary to me, above all else.
2) Beane, McDermott, and the Coaching staff vow to improve, and improve their decision making, regardless of who goes, who stays, and in what roles.
Implicit with #1 and #2 is getting the right / best outside help / external changes needed.
3) 2022 team commits with a vengeance to win the top seed.
Last night's game, if played in BUF, is a Bills win.

 

[kirby11]

....And if you haven't seen this angle of the 4th and 4 run...



What a waste of a superhuman effort by allen.

I'm still pissed on his behalf. Dude was headed for all-time legend status in terms of a single postseason if he kept his run up.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

So what do we even draft? WR? OL? DB? It's gotta be a combo of those the first few rounds right? WR are fine now, but aging. Davis coming through helps a lot, and McKenzie is a solid stable piece.

I'm thinking DB, then WR/OL or flip those last two.

No need for WR unless Beasley leaves & no replacement is signed by that point.

No real need for DB other than that elusive 'big nickel'.

My offseason priorities in no particular order :

Dynamic dual threat RB (Kamara/Deebo Samuel type)
TE2/cover for Knox
IOL
1T DT
Big nickel

Obviously things can & will change depending on cuts & FA (re)signings.

 

[missingmika]

I think for draft you need to go impact the first 2 rounds.

Im going:
1st - CB
2nd: G
3-5th: P Matt Araiza

Those are the only positions where you can draft and get a starter who can make an impact on this team next year.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

@brian_griffin

I think McKenzie is a different animal to Beasley - but if he ended up taking that position I think you still need to go out to get a backup slot. It's such an important piece to this puzzle.

Early days - but I see a receiver room of Diggs, Davis, Beasley/X, McKenzie, Stevenson, Kumerow & I'm happy with that.

I'm not saying don't add talent if you can - but it's a very low priority plus I've wanted Davis/McKenzie to get bigger roles all season - adding another guy would only take snaps away from those two.

 

[missingmika]

No need for WR unless Beasley leaves & no replacement is signed by that point.

No real need for DB other than that elusive 'big nickel'.

My offseason priorities in no particular order :

Dynamic dual threat RB (Kamara/Deebo Samuel type)
TE2/cover for Knox
IOL
1T DT
Big nickel

Obviously things can & will change depending on cuts & FA (re)signings.

I think Beasley will be a cap casualty and we already have his replacement on the roster. WR isn’t a need unless we cut Beasley and lose McKenzie to FA.