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Tasty Biscuits

Tasty Biscuits

with fancy sauce
Aug 8, 2011
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AuroraBorealis said:
McDavid's P/PG in the playoffs = 1.60
Crosby's P/PG in the playoffs = 1.12

30% more scoring from McDavid. Let's make it all fair and subtract that 6% from earlier...era-adjusted. McDavid is still toasting Sid by 24% in the playoffs.
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I think the main points are more:

1) should only calculate it for rounds 1 and 2 for Sid, since McD has only been in the conference finals one time, and scoring typically drips in the conference and especially cup finals.

2) If Sid had Geno stapled to his side the entirety of his playoff runs Like McD does Drai, his PPG would certainly be helped (secondarily so since they wouldn't have made as many cup finals that way, so they'd be playing in higher scoring rounds). Level? Probably not. But it'd be significant.

Also why on earth did you take GPG for the regular season for those stats? Playoff scoring averages would be much more relevant, especially since it seems like those have been up even moreso the last few years comparatively -- that's your "era-adjusted."
 
Icarium

Icarium

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Feb 16, 2010
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AuroraBorealis said:
McDavid has played the Kings 3 years straight. During that time, the Kings rank 6th in the league defensively. There's nothing easy about that matchup for McDavid.
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The Kings penalty kill was often like playing on easy mode, to be fair.
 
AuroraBorealis

AuroraBorealis

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Oct 16, 2018
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Tasty Biscuits said:
I think the main points are more:

1) should only calculate it for rounds 1 and 2 for Sid, since McD has only been in the conference finals one time, and scoring typically drips in the conference and especially cup finals.

2) If Sid had Geno stapled to his side the entirety of his playoff runs Like McD does Drai, his PPG would certainly be helped (secondarily so since they wouldn't have made as many cup finals that way, so they'd be playing in higher scoring rounds). Level? Probably not. But it'd be significant.

Also why on earth did you take GPG for the regular season for those stats? Playoff scoring averages would be much more relevant, especially since it seems like those have been up even moreso the last few years comparatively -- that's your "era-adjusted."
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Okay. If you guys wanna fight reality, that's your business.
All I hear here are excuses that favor Sid, and never anything that mentions McDavid's side. As if he's had perfect conditions or something.
This is not an honest discussion. It's a feelings discussion.

I like Sid and Malkin more than McDavid and Draisaitl, since I'm a Pens fan. But I'm prepared to admit the truth. You guys are not.
 

Offtheboard412

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Feb 26, 2012
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AuroraBorealis said:
View attachment 871073

The median GF/G in years that Crosby made the playoffs is 2.86.
The median in years McDavid made the playoffs is 3.03.

6%. That's the difference between them. There's so much talk about more scoring these days, but people don't actually know what the difference is. It's totally overstated.

McDavid's P/PG in the playoffs = 1.60
Crosby's P/PG in the playoffs = 1.12

30% more scoring from McDavid. Let's make it all fair and subtract that 6% from earlier...era-adjusted. McDavid is still toasting Sid by 24% in the playoffs.

And as for that stuff about quality of opponents...
McDavid has played the Kings 3 years straight. During that time, the Kings rank 6th in the league defensively. There's nothing easy about that matchup for McDavid.
It's just more bending over backwards to support Sid.

McDavid is just straight up a better playoff player than Crosby. That's a fact, no matter how we try to twist things. Accept reality.
Draisaitl is too, btw. He's even above McDavid in production.
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Through 58 playoff games McDavid has 93 points. Crosby through 58 playoff games had 80 points. Seems like a more fair comparison to make. That's not to mention that Crosby played a much larger portion of those 58 games in his early 20's before he had reached what most would consider his "peak" where as McDavid has put up most of his numbers in his mid 20's.

Also I believe just using league goals per game rates between seasons is not a great way to do adjusted scoring. There are significant factors that contribute to scoring that it does not take into account.
 
AuroraBorealis

AuroraBorealis

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Offtheboard412 said:
Through 58 playoff games McDavid has 93 points. Crosby through 58 playoff games had 80 points. Seems like a more fair comparison to make. That's not to mention that Crosby played a much larger portion of those 58 games in his early 20's before he had reached what most would consider his "peak" where as McDavid has put up most of his numbers in his mid 20's.
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Crosby had 120 points at age 19.
72 points in 53 games at age 20.
103 points at age 21.
109 points at age 22.

He was just fine at these ages, which encompass those 58 playoff games. Better, actually. His production in the playoffs worsened after this, in what you call his prime.
From age 24-27 (he missed the age 23 playoffs) Sid had 36 points in 38 playoff games. McDavid at those ages had 74 points in 41 games. Absolutely dumpstered Sid there.
Offtheboard412 said:
Also I believe just using league goals per game rates between seasons is not a great way to do adjusted scoring. There are significant factors that contribute to scoring that it does not take into account.
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Fine, whatever. Any way you slice it, the goal rate in the regular season and playoffs is not as big of a disparity as people say it is. People use that as a crutch too much.
Just because it exists doesn't mean it's a sweeping change.
 
AuroraBorealis

AuroraBorealis

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Oct 16, 2018
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Tasty Biscuits said:
Also why on earth did you take GPG for the regular season for those stats? Playoff scoring averages would be much more relevant, especially since it seems like those have been up even moreso the last few years comparatively -- that's your "era-adjusted."
Click to expand...
Because Hockey Reference doesn't have those f***ing numbers.
Doesn't matter. Calculate them yourself. You'll see that it's not a big difference. Nothing like on the scale that people pretend it is. It's gonna be under 10%, reflecting the state of the regular seasons.
 

Offtheboard412

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Feb 26, 2012
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AuroraBorealis said:
Crosby had 120 points at age 19.
72 points in 53 games at age 20.
103 points at age 21.
109 points at age 22.

He was just fine at these ages, which encompass those 58 playoff games. Better, actually. His production in the playoffs worsened after this, in what you call his prime.
From age 24-27 (he missed the age 23 playoffs) Sid had 36 points in 38 playoff games. McDavid at those ages had 74 points in 41 games. Absolutely dumpstered Sid there.

Fine, whatever. Any way you slice it, the goal rate in the regular season and playoffs is not as big of a disparity as people say it is. People use that as a crutch too much.
Just because it exists doesn't mean it's a sweeping change.
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Being "just fine" is not the same thing as being at his peak. McDavid was "just fine" winning the Art Ross in 16/17 before only putting up 9 points in 13 games in those playoffs.. And I'm not even saying this to try to tear McDavid down. He has been fantastic in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. But timing does affect these things. I don't consider Crosby from 24-27 to be a "peak" Crosby, but that's a whole other conversation. But it just seems odd to me to compare all of Crosby's career vs 58 games for McDavid and say he dunks on Crosby. McDavid's numbers will almost assuredly drop as he ages into his 30's. The only somewhat fair comparison to make is the first 58 games for each, which showed they were not that far apart.

And as far as scoring levels goes it actually is a pretty big change. We just saw Panarin finish with 120 points and didn't even make the top 3 scorers. There have been 3 different guys hitting 140+ points the past 2 seasons. We have seen 4 60 goal seasons in the past 3 years. We had 3 times the amount of 100 points players this season alone as there were from 13/14 through 16/17. We went from scoring being close to dead puck era levels from 2012-2016 to scoring now being the highest it's been since 93/94.
 
AuroraBorealis

AuroraBorealis

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Offtheboard412 said:
Being "just fine" is not the same thing as being at his peak. McDavid was "just fine" winning the Art Ross in 16/17 before only putting up 9 points in 13 games in those playoffs.. And I'm not even saying this to try to tear McDavid down. He has been fantastic in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. But timing does affect these things. I don't consider Crosby from 24-27 to be a "peak" Crosby, but that's a whole other conversation. But it just seems odd to me to compare all of Crosby's career vs 58 games for McDavid and say he dunks on Crosby. McDavid's numbers will almost assuredly drop as he ages into his 30's. The only somewhat fair comparison to make is the first 58 games for each, which showed they were not that far apart.

And as far as scoring levels goes it actually is a pretty big change. We just saw Panarin finish with 120 points and didn't even make the top 3 scorers. There have been 3 different guys hitting 140+ points the past 2 seasons. We have seen 4 60 goal seasons in the past 3 years. We had 3 times the amount of 100 points players this season alone as there were from 13/14 through 16/17. We went from scoring being close to dead puck era levels from 2012-2016 to scoring now being the highest it's been since 93/94.
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Can you clarify what is the peak then?
Most people say 2010-11, but that's one year, and only half a season. That's not really too relevant when talking about larger playoff samples, especially since he wasn't available for that year's playoffs.

Crosby's peak in the playoffs were the early years, the ones I listed. Like, when he was well over 1.00 P/PG.
So it's pretty convenient to only use Crosby's best playoff segment as a comparison, instead of accounting for the mid to late 20's. Sid's playoff career numbers fluctuate wildly. Some of his best work are in his 30's, so I don't see why we're not just looking at career playoffs on the whole.
Offtheboard412 said:
And as far as scoring levels goes it actually is a pretty big change. We just saw Panarin finish with 120 points and didn't even make the top 3 scorers. There have been 3 different guys hitting 140+ points the past 2 seasons. We have seen 4 60 goal seasons in the past 3 years. We had 3 times the amount of 100 points players this season alone as there were from 13/14 through 16/17. We went from scoring being close to dead puck era levels from 2012-2016 to scoring now being the highest it's been since 93/94.
Click to expand...
Like I said before, it's 6% more from teams per game. Use the average for players across the league, not small samples with exceptional individuals. That's the honest way to do it.
The level of the talent pool at the top has improved. It's not just a result of forcing more scoring through hammering down on crosschecking in front of the net or starting PP's with O-zone faceoffs or w/e.
It's just a golden era right now of talent.
 

Offtheboard412

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Feb 26, 2012
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AuroraBorealis said:
Can you clarify what is the peak then?
Most people say 2010-11, but that's one year, and only half a season. That's not really too relevant when talking about larger playoff samples, especially since he wasn't available for that year's playoffs.

Crosby's peak in the playoffs were the early years, the ones I listed. Like, when he was well over 1.00 P/PG.
So it's pretty convenient to only use Crosby's best playoff segment as a comparison, instead of accounting for the mid to late 20's. Sid's playoff career numbers fluctuate wildly. Some of his best work are in his 30's, so I don't see why we're not just looking at career playoffs on the whole.

Like I said before, it's 6% more from teams per game. Use the average for players across the league, not small samples with exceptional individuals. That's the honest way to do it.
The level of the talent pool at the top has improved. It's not just a result of forcing more scoring through hammering down on crosschecking in front of the net or starting PP's with O-zone faceoffs or w/e.
It's just a golden era right now of talent.
Click to expand...
I personally don't think we ever got to see a peak level Crosby in the playoffs outside of 09/10. I thought the level he was at for the last ~50 games of that regular season + the playoffs was pretty close to where he was at in 10/11.

As far as using each of their first 58 games vs using all of Crosby's career, I feel that is more fair because while you state the difference is only 6% when comparing all their career games, in the years McDavid has actually put up monster numbers the difference has been more than 6%. Especially compared to 12/13 through 16/17 where a large bulk of Crosby's playoff numbers where compiled. The last 3 seasons where McDavid has put up these huge numbers the league goals per game average has been at 3.14. The 5 year span from 11/12 through 16/17 the league average was 2.73, which is 13% lower, not 6%. Considering he has scored 76% of his career playoff points in that 3 year span, I do think its more fair to compare their first 58 games when it was a smaller gap.

The debate on league scoring gets complicated, I think it is up due to a number of factors all coming together. The biggest jump occured after the 16/17 and 17/18 seasons, as restrictions on goalie pads size were introduced after both seasons and the league saw a pretty significant jump in scoring. There has also been the reduction in dangerous open ice hitting, allowing players to carry the puck across the blue line and through the center of the ice without having to worry about taking an elbow to the dome, and also the crackdown on illegal stickwork has allowed players more chances to stickhandle and get shots off without defenders slashing their hands. I also believe coaching has played a big part, as the old school coaches and philosophy have begun aging out and the next generation of coaches/coaching philosophy has begun to take over. Teams are running more aggressive systems, utilizing defensemen in the offensive zone more, using 4 or often 5 forwards on the power play, pulling goalies much earlier. Can't forget about 3 on 3 OT as well. The game really has changed a ton since the 2005 lockout and it's finally showing in the scoring.

As for this being a golden era of talent, I think the league is in a good place and definitely has more talent than 10 years ago where there was a bit of a lull with Crosby dealing with injuries, Malkin's inconsistency and Ovechkin dropping off a bit. But I do remember back in 16/17 and 17/18 when scoring was still low that Kucherov, Mackinnon and McDavid were barely breaking 100 points before the changes to the goalies. So I don't think talent alone is the reason for the numbers we're seeing. It's also not a 6% difference but closer to 15%, and the increase has benefitted the top end players more so than the bottom 6 guys. I'm interested to see what kind of numbers we'll see in the next 5-10 years, and whether someone like Bedard or Michkov can potentially start hitting 130+.
 
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