Only Dostal with some result here. Freddie was also a 3rd rounderDostal, Siderov, Pastujov, Hinds from fairly recent drafts. We’ll see how they end up, but certainly good prospects and Dostal looking like the future starter.
Only Dostal with some result here. Freddie was also a 3rd rounderDostal, Siderov, Pastujov, Hinds from fairly recent drafts. We’ll see how they end up, but certainly good prospects and Dostal looking like the future starter.
ducks fans on facebook are hilarious. i don't use it anymore, but i still like to login whenever there's something notable happening with the team for a good laughNever have I ever seen a more incompetent group of fans in my life than the Ducks fans complaining about this trade on the Ducks Facebook page. My god it’s embarrassing that they even associate themselves with this team.
2nd round picks is roughly 3/10, which I assume you still think is near worthless, but try telling that to the Dallas Stars.I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.
Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.
Never underestimate Madden's abillity to find quality players in the later rounds of the draft.Why even bother for a 3rd, 4th, 5th…..those later round picks have zero value IMO. I get wanting to ship him off but Lyubushkin is worth more than that. He’s a serviceable NHL defenseman.
I don't think the goal is to play NHL games. Ducks will play at least 82 of them, unless there's a disaster, for the foreseeable future. The goal is to make the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup.I’m not saying we can.
What im saying is the chances of the 3rd round pick becoming an NHLer, even for the equivalent of the 30 or so games Lyubushkin will play for the Leafs, is extremely low.
I was curious about your 1 in 10 figure. Just some quick eyeballing - from 2014-2017, it's about five guys per season who have played 100 games in the NHL to this point (1 in 6). Before that, it's about 10 guys per season (1 in 3). I didn't really look at "impact" but those are guys who have played more than a season, so teams think they can contribute at least.I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.
Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.
The two sites I looked at had it at around 13-14% chance of playing more than 100 games. Slightly greater than 1 in 10.I was curious about your 1 in 10 figure. Just some quick eyeballing - from 2014-2017, it's about five guys per season who have played 100 games in the NHL to this point (1 in 6). Before that, it's about 10 guys per season (1 in 3). I didn't really look at "impact" but those are guys who have played more than a season, so teams think they can contribute at least.
This brings up two thoughts.
1. The odds of those guys playing in the NHL are better than your figures. Third rounders take longer, on average, to make the NHL, and there's certainly less chance, but it's not 10%.
2. That said, because it takes longer, what are the odds that a given third round pick is going to be an NHL player with the team that drafted him? I don't have the time to look into that, but I suspect that a lot of these guys might shuffle around before they stick, or be included as throw-ins to deals. So while the chance that a 3rd round draft pick becomes an NHL player is greater than 10%, the chance that a 3rd round pick becomes an NHL player FOR THE TEAM THAT DRAFTS HIM might very well be that low. But that would need further analysis.
Anyway, I don't think a 3rd round pick is next to nothing. It has value. I think the 4th round is when these things start becoming closer to lottery tickets.
Yes, but you can trade a 3rd round pick for a player - Lybushkin cost a 4th, so a 3rd can be used to get a player better than Lybushkin next year. A pick can be added to another trade for an even better player. A 3rd still has a 10-20% chance of becoming an NHL player. The team is clearly in tank mode for the last 23 games. This opens a roster spot for current prospects, and yields a spot if we want to try to get Moore to sign.I’m not saying we can.
What im saying is the chances of the 3rd round pick becoming an NHLer, even for the equivalent of the 30 or so games Lyubushkin will play for the Leafs, is extremely low.
I love 2nd and 3rd round picks. Alot of talented players that are passed up for their imperfections such as height, etc. I think these rounds are where the scouts prove their worth.I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.
Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.
Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.The two sites I looked at had it at around 13-14% chance of playing more than 100 games. Slightly greater than 1 in 10.
Not to mention it doesn't take into account the strength of the scouting department. Ducks have had one of the better ones, so there's probably a slightly higher chance of getting a guy that can eventually contribute.Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.
Of course, if you include 2018-2023 in your calculation, that would drive the number down. But that's misleading, since those players have not had a chance to make their way to the NHL yet.
Yes, but you can trade a 3rd round pick for a player - Lybushkin cost a 4th, so a 3rd can be used to get a player better than Lybushkin next year.
Verbeekenating.Who can then be flipped for a 2nd, which can be flipped for another player ....
In a few years we'll have turned Lyubushkin into a 1st overall pick!
And I official dub this strategy as "Verbeeking" ... "Verbeekening?" ... Lemme workshop it.
I do wonder with Bush moved and Fowler injured, if we look for a cap dump dmen… I think lindstrom has been alright… I really don’t want to see Hagg playing.With Fowler likely missing several games I’d go with
Mintyukov-Gudas
Zellweger-Vaakanainen
LaCombe-Lindstrom
Hagg
Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.I do wonder with Bush moved and Fowler injured, if we look for a cap dump dmen… I think lindstrom has been alright… I really don’t want to see Hagg playing.
Curious if there are any dmen that are seen as cap dumps signed this year and next or at least cheap to acquire
hmm I’d like that, ceci has been pretty solid for them if I recall…. Maybe make it a big deal.Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.
Verbeekenating.
I already trademarked “Verbeekening” for the annual trade deadline purges.
I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.
Of course, if you include 2018-2023 in your calculation, that would drive the number down. But that's misleading, since those players have not had a chance to make their way to the NHL yet.
They've been ridiculously healthy and I think that luck will end at some point. If they try to upgrade Ceci, I would keep him in case of an injury. They may not be able to for cap reasons though.Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.
Lybushkin is a low value asset to be fairI would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.
Def more of a cap causality…. They can find depth pieces for a lot less cap.They've been ridiculously healthy and I think that luck will end at some point. If they try to upgrade Ceci, I would keep him in case of an injury. They may not be able to for cap reasons though.
I agree that it's low value. But Verbeek did well here - turned a 4th round pick into a season of mentorship for Mintyukov + a 3rd rounder. Yeah, it's on the margins, but I think it matters.I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.
Less recent but Madden era: Freddie Andersen, Moore, Mahura and Welinski.Dostal, Siderov, Pastujov, Hinds from fairly recent drafts. We’ll see how they end up, but certainly good prospects and Dostal looking like the future starter.
Maybe this is surge pricing for the Verbeekenator.
What kind of asset do you think a 6-7D rental is worth? Can you find examples of comparable players who were traded for more? And again, whatever we get back is infinitely more valuable than him walking away for nothing.I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.