Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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- 14,636
A lot of people have been talking about Florida's decision to pull Bobrovsky yesterday, down 4 goals with six minutes left in the game. Obviously, it was very likely they were going to lose either way. But did the decision make sense?
We can make a reasonable ballpark estimate of what would have happened, if the Panthers didn't pull Bobrovsky. Since they were down by four goals, regardless of what Las Vegas did, if the Panthers scored between 0 and 3 goals, they were going to lose.
In order to tie the game, they'd need to score 4 goals, while allowing none. Or they would have to score 5 goals, while allowing 1. And in order to win the game (in regulation), Florida would have had to score 5 goals while allowing none, or 6 goals while allowing no more than one, etc.
Using the Poisson probability distribution, we can make a reasonable ballpark estimate of how the game was likely to unfold. I'll spare everyone the mathematical details, but here's a table showing the outcomes:
(The rows show the number of goals scored by the Panthers, and the columns show the number of goals scored by the Knights. So, for example, the cell showing 2.1% is the probability of Florida scoring two and Las Vegas scoring zero).
Obviously there are a lot of simplifying assumptions that go into this. (The most significant point is I'm assuming the rest of the game unfolds at 5-on-5. A powerplay would change the analysis, and although I could incorporate that, it would take a lot of work, and it likely wouldn't change the outcome in a meaningful way). With that disclaimer in mind, if my inputs are reasonable, this suggests that the most likely outcome for the final six minutes of the game (59% probability) would have been no goals (in which case, Florida loses).
There was about a 31% chance of either team scoring a goal, and about an 8% chance of two goals being scored (either two for Vegas, two for Florida, or one each). Obviously, all of these outcomes would lead to Florida losing.
Adding everything up, I estimate that, had the Panthers not pulled Bobrovsky, they would have had about a 1-in-8,000 chance of tying the game (sum of the yellow cells), and about a 1-in-140,000 chance of winning the game (sum of the green cells).
We can make a reasonable ballpark estimate of what would have happened, if the Panthers didn't pull Bobrovsky. Since they were down by four goals, regardless of what Las Vegas did, if the Panthers scored between 0 and 3 goals, they were going to lose.
In order to tie the game, they'd need to score 4 goals, while allowing none. Or they would have to score 5 goals, while allowing 1. And in order to win the game (in regulation), Florida would have had to score 5 goals while allowing none, or 6 goals while allowing no more than one, etc.
Using the Poisson probability distribution, we can make a reasonable ballpark estimate of how the game was likely to unfold. I'll spare everyone the mathematical details, but here's a table showing the outcomes:
(The rows show the number of goals scored by the Panthers, and the columns show the number of goals scored by the Knights. So, for example, the cell showing 2.1% is the probability of Florida scoring two and Las Vegas scoring zero).
Obviously there are a lot of simplifying assumptions that go into this. (The most significant point is I'm assuming the rest of the game unfolds at 5-on-5. A powerplay would change the analysis, and although I could incorporate that, it would take a lot of work, and it likely wouldn't change the outcome in a meaningful way). With that disclaimer in mind, if my inputs are reasonable, this suggests that the most likely outcome for the final six minutes of the game (59% probability) would have been no goals (in which case, Florida loses).
There was about a 31% chance of either team scoring a goal, and about an 8% chance of two goals being scored (either two for Vegas, two for Florida, or one each). Obviously, all of these outcomes would lead to Florida losing.
Adding everything up, I estimate that, had the Panthers not pulled Bobrovsky, they would have had about a 1-in-8,000 chance of tying the game (sum of the yellow cells), and about a 1-in-140,000 chance of winning the game (sum of the green cells).