I get a kick out of you talking in absolutes like you know what the heck you’re talking about.
Well, like for stocks or crypto currencies, when you try to make a coin with hockey cards (or any other sport), you have to learn to project young players and I have tried to do that for a long time now, as Duncan Keith and Keith Yandle were my first "finds". Analyzing a skillset, watching games and clips, reading every report available and a simple analytical data will help in that regard. Even reading other posters opinions on HF can help.
Nick Paul has 24 goals and 46 pts this season. If the league scoring stays relatively similar during Ostapchuk's peak, do you see him topping that, at the NHL level? Do you remember Formenton? Doubled Zack's prodution in his AHL rookie season and most were seeing Alex as a 3rd liner as well...
Stranger things have happened, but I don't see Ostapchuk becoming a Top-6 player. Absolutely nothing suggests that. Based on his junior and AHL rookie season, you hope he is a slow cooker like Paul who will progress into a very useful 2-way player rather than a defensive specialist
Even if it will make you hate my takes even more, for now a SAFE projection is a Sam Lafferty type. I'd say that it is his floor.
And to specify on why Jordan Staal was a wishful comparison, there's a reason he was a 2nd OA pick while Ostapchuk was a 2nd round pick. Staal maybe didn't end up producing like first expected, but he is a perennial Selke candidate despite modest production compared to guys like Barkov, Stone or Bergeron.
If Ostapchuk ends up as a good as Jordan Staal, that is a major homerun.
I will take Nick Paul, but the Big O is nastier. So a nastier version of Big Dick Nick.
Seriously, if he ends up like a Trent Frederic type, that'd be fantastic
