I'd actually like to discuss St. Louis as a comparable a little further because I find it quite interesting. First of all, remember how bad they were last season under Davis Payne to start the year, and the dramatic turn around under Hitchcock?
Next, out of interest, lets look at their depth at each position compared to ours (with O'reilly included).
Center:
Duchene, Stastny, O'reilly, Mitchell
Backes, Berglund, Steen, Nichol
Dutchy and O'reilly are still developing but I'd take our group over theirs comfortably.
Wing
Landeskog, Parenteau, Downie, Mcginn, Jones, Hejduk, Mcleod, Kobasew
Tarasenko, Macdonald, Oshie, Perron, Stewart, Schwartz, Sobotka, Langenbrunner
Now obviously their group is much better than ours, but in 3 years (considering they added two wingers in Tarasenko and Schwartz in 2013 our equivalent timeline would be 2016) I don't see it as out of the question that we could add/develop talent at a similar pace. Not certain, but also not impossible.
Defense:
Not worth discussing ours
Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Jackman, Polak, Russel, Cole
Now obviously the difference maker here is Pietrangelo in that I find it highly unlikely we will have a defenseman of that caliber in the next 10 years. But take him out and that core is not really special - deep, well rounded, but not incredible. As a result we will need a couple more talented guys to surround Johnson with, and as a result defense is where I have the most concerns of our organization being able to get their **** together but we'll see.
Goaltending:
Varlamov, Giguere
Halak, Elliot
Varly is just as good if not better than Halak. And we all know what Brian Elliot is when he's not sheltered by an incredible defensive system.
----
What was the point of my doing that comparison? Just to show that I'm not sure that, despite all our setbacks, we're that far off the pace of the most recent very successful rebuild. I think it's conceivable if we continue to draft well and make smart signings like PAP that we will be able to improve the depth on the wing as well as our D corps over the next 3 years.
I believe that there are 2 things that are going to make or break the direction of this rebuild in the next year or so and those are
1) The O'reilly situation - whether they get this guy locked up at a reasonable price or manage to move him for an equivalently valuable asset is key. If we can't get him signed and get a bad return on him that sets back a LONG way.
2) The Stastny situation - they need to make a decision on his future with the team, and either get him locked up long term at a more reasonable price or move him for an equivalenty valuable asset. Again, failure to properly manage this asset will set this rebuild back drastically.
Those two things, along with continued good drafting/development will go a long way to showing me whether or not this management can see this rebuild through to the end or if it will go the way of the Blue Jackets. I'm not as sold on our drafting as some.