Buffalo Bills Week 13: Bills (7-4) v. Pats (8-4)

[DangleCity]

No, the Pats had weather that played to their strength and knew they wasted a first round pick on a game manager QB.

The Bills are a pats heavy team with no run game. The Pats have a run heavy team with no trust in a first round QB. When you have 50 mph winds….. that favors the run heavy team.

That run heavy team won by 4. Almost lost, like if Diggs pulled in that end zone catch that hit his arm.

If I’m a Pats fan, which I assume you are. This game would have me shit my pants. A Bills team that can’t throw the ball in 50 mph winds (which is all they can do) lost by 4 points.

Outside of 1 run, the Pats running game would be 3rd last in the league.

Imagine going into a playoff game throwing for 19 yards and running at an average that is 3rd last in the league.

Now imagine losing to that team lol

 

[Panthaz89]

Jesus a Pats fan actually coming in and bragging about a 4 point win...hope the Bills come in and whoop their asses by 30+ in Foxborough. Also hope the Bills beat TB and then my Panthers(who cares their seasons is over anyway) so the most unbearable fan base in the world can keep quiet.

 

[missingmika]

Straight up delusion. Same as the Bills coaches and players. You can keep down playing the Patriots and what happened last night, but remember you still LOST to that team so insulting the Patriots only makes the Bills look even worse for losing lmao

Awww you’re so fragile. The Bills has every disadvantage and barely lost.

Bill B, probably the best coach ever thought wow we wasted a first round pick on QB and decided not to throw, because the QB sucks.

The weather gave an advantage to the Pats that you probably will never see again in the NFL. Even with that advantage they barely won.

This Pats team is pathetic and sucks.

 

[DangleCity]

Awww you’re so fragile. The Bills has every disadvantage and barely lost.

Bill B, probably the best coach ever thought wow we wasted a first round pick on QB and decided not to throw, because the QB sucks.

The weather gave an advantage to the Pats that you probably will never see again in the NFL. Even with that advantage they barely won.

This Pats team is pathetic and sucks.

Lol Mac threw 3 times and still had a better rating than Allen.

You can keep making excuses about weather and one off plays and whatever else you can dream up but at the end of the day, as bad you want to make out the Patriots to be there is still one spot reserved below them for the Bills who lost at home to them

 

[DangleCity]

Thank you for holding the AFCE seat warm for 11 month while the Patriots took a vacation. See you in another 20 years when the Bills manage to put together another roster capable of dethroning the Patriots

 

[misterchainsaw]

Imagine being so desperate for attention you spend all night on an opposing team's thread who clearly don't want you around. How pathetic. It's bedtime, kiddo.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Thank you for holding the AFCE seat warm for 11 month while the Patriots took a vacation. See you in another 20 years when the Bills manage to put together another roster capable of dethroning the Patriots

I used to intern for a pro football team, so let me tell you what I saw, since I've had access and conversations with actual professional coaches and scouts.

- The Bills are the typical 2020s passing team. Their defense is loaded to stop passing offenses. Their offense is a passing offense. The Bills played this game with their two biggest strengths seriously degraded.

- The Pats have a power run game and the Bills don't play it well. However, schematically, teams can load up on the run and beat team like the Pats. Concepts like spillage, fire blitzes, and run gap shooting work. The Bills didn't really try any of it until the 4th quarter, on the last drive, and only with Milano.

- If the Bills forced the Pats into more passing, it plays into the Bills defensive strength. You'd think that loading up against the run opens up the pass. It does, but also gives the defense more ability to disguise itself and play to their own strengths. Belichick himself does this all the time.

- If Tyler Bass hits the late field goal, the situation late is completely changed, and the Bills aren't trying to force the ball into the end zone. That's a Pats strength.

Game 2 without the weather may be a different story.

 

[brian_griffin]

It’s a live thread during the heat of the battle, what did you expect? If you want well thought out takes after the games been decided, check back in a few hours.

Here's mine...

Theme #1: Pats run game is good, and people are kidding themselves if they think that's either easy to stop if you know they won't throw, or that winning without passing is illegitimate.

Literally you have no passing game whatsoever to worry about the run game should not be effective at all.

(and)

It'S been good, but not this good. Take into account they literally aren't throwing and you have to be able to stop this.

A team can know 100% in advance they will face a lop-sided run attack, or alternatively a lop-sided pass attack, and still fail miserably if their personnel match up poorly with their opponent, even with the correct scheme. Analogous to a hockey goalie knowing the opponent will "always" shoot high-glove, or another goalie knowing they'll regularly try to get him to open up his 5-hole, and despite that foreknowledge being largely ineffective in reducing those weaknesses because they are... inherent weaknesses, even if the defensive scheme in front of him is forcing shots wide, or limiting odd-man rushes against.

Theme 1b: Bills rush defense still did a respectable job. Bills have 2 losses this season due to a single long-gainer run for a TD. Titans and Pats. Without the long-gainer by NE, that game had 44 carries for 158 yds. If you knew your opponent would only get 8% of their yards through the air, and 92% on the ground, and on 98% of their total plays they'd have 177 yards, I'd think you'd like your chances. 2 FG on 177 yards. 1 TD on 64 yards (add 5 more if you want to count the entire drive).

Theme #2:

It would be cool if McDermott could adapt and play anything other than nickel when getting abused in the ground

(and)

We play exclusively nickel, which means we’re very undersized when teams have less than 3 WRs on the field

I thought they did play a 3rd LB a decent amount and use 4 d-backs... maybe I'm wrong.

Theme #3:

Ok this is the worst challenge in nfl history. McDermott seems in over his head tonight. Abysmal coaching.

I don't think he got it......but unless there's a view we haven't seen, it's not getting overturned

Common sense tells us there's no way he got that 1st down.

He wasn’t even close to getting it IMO. Which means it will be inconclusive and the Patriots keep it.

They stopped him but they’ll never get a clear look to reverse the bizarre decision to award the first. The official who did wasn’t signaling anything until after Jones was shoved over post whistle.

You already know that timeout is gonna be an end game factor. You can’t challenge that unless you’re 101% certain

Wholly agree with all of the above. I understand McDermott firmly believing Jones was stopped. But, since the ruling on the field was spot of ball enabled 1st down, you can't challenge that without some TV view by your coaches / staff that Jones was short. Especially against the Pats.

Theme #4:

Patriots run game has been destroying the whole league. Bills D isn't doing that badly, really. I think the Bills have to develop a running game on offense. Patriots win games because they can run the ball effectively, something Buffalo doesn't ever commit to doing.

Agree. An effective rushing attack helps time of possession, and likely decreases risk of turnovers (many interceptions are tipped balls. the rushing analog of a tipped ball might be a bad exchange. They happen way less often than tipped-ball interceptions. And I would equate a non-tipped-ball pick with a fumble.)

Theme #5: Coaching, outside of the challenge on 4th down run.

Burning a timeout for nothing. Wtf.

Well this game is over, terrible job by the coaching staff tonight

At any point in the game did anyone think, "wow, Daboll fooled the Pats there", or "Daboll did something unexpected IN A GOOD WAY there"? Nope? Didn't think so either.

We got out coached tonight by Bill.

That's certainly debatable, but also needs to be put in context. Belichek has been learning / coaching football as long as McDermott has been alive. Let that sink in.

To be clear, I detest the Pats, Belicheck, Brady, Gronk, et al.

A few more QB runs, jet motions, or screen passes and they win that game last night. For some odd reason, they decide to rip out entire sections of their offensive playbook on a weekly basis and can't fathom sprinkling them back in when their gameplan fails. It's been happening all season.

More Allen RPOs would have been ideal, especially if the Bills were using "12-personnel" sets.

Bad play calling, bad clock management and Allen with happy feet and worrying about penalties. What a mess.

Bills could have afforded one of those categories of mess-ups, not all three.

I could not disagree more. Pats are up in spite of Bill.

I don't get this take. Belicheck will NEVER beat himself. EVER. He will always have his team prepared. He will never make a wrong decision.

Two times late in the 4th quarter Belicheck had players go down "injured" and stay down, in effect gaining 2 additional long time outs. I strongly suspect those were designed "injuries". Bills need to add that "drill" to their playbook.

Surprised we're not seeing more run pass option tonight.

Completely baffled me too. Even if NE defenders were going to be stout against the run regardless, it would have forced a little less focus on the interior and more awareness of lateral pursuit for contain / to seal the edge.

Theme #6: Weather games like this do happen, and sometimes it accentuates one team's advantage over another, and blunts the opponent's strengths.

If there wasn’t the wind, Bills would be winning this game.

Possibly. We'll see in the rematch.

I dunno what Dabolls plan was. Allen was cutting through the wind with only slight difficulty.

Should have targeted Beasley and/or RB screens a little more. I get the danger of a RB screen if the wind takes the ball and makes it a lateral / backward pass which could be recovered by the defense, but they could have been selective in using it.

I wonder if the game plan adjustments would have been broader if Daboll was on the sidelines vs. in the box. I assume he gets intel from coaches on the sideline, but that introduces a secondhand subjective filter to the information received to make decisions.

I’m so sick of hearing about the weather. Jim Kelly and the K-gun offense shredded teams in this weather.

Remember the Colts snow-globe game a few years ago, when the Bills were in all-red and Fred Jackson scored to the far (non-press-box-side) corner of the tunnel end zone?

Theme #7: Odds and ends observations:

Pats gonna take a safety.

I thought that too. If there wasn't the case of the reset play clock for the Bills non-time-out timeout, I think there would have been another 10-15 seconds of game clock remaining, and I would have expected the Pats to take a long circuitous play to take the safety, then kick off with 5 seconds or so to go.

Theme #8: Small decisions or mistakes have big impacts.

Well, the extra point vs the two came in huge here. I know it was too early chase points but if we get the 2 on our TD, we only need a FG to tie

BINGO! I picked up on this potential influence as soon as the conversion was made. And your post was the only mention of this in the game-day thread, but the decision by Belicheck to go for 2 after their touchdown was a game-changer. First of all, he likely decided pre-game they'd go for two against the wind all game long, given the difficulty kicking and the prowess of their running game. Moreover, he likely didn't view a 2-pt attempt stochastically, correctly assuming there were a greater number of outcomes where he could succeed on the try. The net effect was the Bills could not play for the tie in the 4th quarter, and that impacted the Bills decisions, and likely paralyzed Daboll's frozen brain even further.

So did the missed kick by Bass.

So did Harris' long TD run.

So did Brieda's fumble.

True. Which is why you can't afford mistakes against the Pats. It took a Cam Newton fumble in the final minute in Foxboro for the Bills to win there (I know the Pats would have needed to score, but we all saw it coming.)

Bills have become masters of letting teams off the hook and beating themselves this year

Best in the league at it. Although I think someone (Lions?) have something like 8 1-score-or-less losses this year

 

[brian_griffin]

@DangleCity: I firmly believe you are overhyping the alleged dominance of the Patriots win to a far larger extent that Bills fans are minimizing the loss.

They were running the ball right up the gut literally the entire game and both teams knew it. They shouldn't have been able to gain2 yards, let along 64 on one play. The Bills are screwed. How they hell are they going to stop the run when the play a team that actually has some balance on offense, when they couldn't stop a team that was telling you they were going to run it

Bolded to identify hyperbole.

It wasn't a fluke. It was pathetic defense by the Bills. They stacked the box and still gave up a 64 yard run.

Even your fraud 3.3 stat is way too many yards to give up per run when the defense knows a run is coming.

Most knowledgeable Bills fans understand that stacking the box can actually make you susceptible to an occasional long-gainer, as there is minimal-to-none second-level support when stacking the box. Moreover, Bills fans know their defense is built to favor pass defense vs. run defense in part to complement their pass-oriented offense. Maybe we'll send some of that knowledge East for a Christmas stocking stuffer.

I'd ask Santa to throw in one of those "18-1" NY Giant T-shirts, but there are just too many good ones to choose from. Those NY'ers are creative designers.

Was thinking of somehow having the 0:09 moment of this 0:11 clip framed, but that won't fit in a stocking:
(it's the dropped catch by Brady on the double-reverse in the Eagle Super Bowl, for those who have the video blocked by NFL)


I'll also observe that only 1 of the Patriot Super Bowl wins was dominating (vs. Rams). I frequently ponder why Teddy Bruschi hasn't stop COVID, after all the sick / dying children he brought back to life, the famines and droughts he ended, and the Chernobyl radiation he eliminated by absorbing it into his body.

NO ONE IS DUMPING THE RUN. How many times do we have to tell you that not how it works. You don't get to pick and choose what plays to use to fit the narrative.

And you don't get to ignore context. Most NFL teams would like their chances in a game holding the opposing offense to 241 yards, which by the way, in case you missed it, was the lowest output by the Pats this year. The Pats ran 49 total plays, a statistically significant low value, and their 46 carries was 50% higher than their season average rushing attempts (excluding the abnormally low rushing attempts Bucs game). In a more balanced game between rushes and passes, it is doubtful they come close to those rushing yard values, even with a long gainer or two.

Straight up delusion. Same as the Bills coaches and players. You can keep down playing the Patriots and what happened last night, but remember you still LOST to that team so insulting the Patriots only makes the Bills look even worse for losing lmao

(and)

Thank you for holding the AFCE seat warm for 11 month while the Patriots took a vacation. See you in another 20 years when the Bills manage to put together another roster capable of dethroning the Patriots

The above two posts should be used in the "Rules - read before posting" thread on every team board as textbook examples of trolling. They are that good.