So after a quick glance (according to seeding):
"Piece of cake" early round draw for Nole: Muller, BZM, Djere, FAA, Fritz or Tiafoe, Rune, Carlos
Good draw for Medvedev; Balazs, Purcell, Coric, de Minaur, Rublev, Carlos, Nole
Significantly more difficult draw for Carlos as he has to play both Sinner and Medvedev along the way: Koepfer, Harris, Evans, Norrie, Sinner, Medvedev, Nole
My picks for the quarters and beyond:
Carlos/Sinner
Medvedev/Hurkacz
Ruud/Paul
Nole/Fritz
Carlos/Hurkacz
Paul/Nole
Nole over Carlos
Heavy on Americans. I like Hurkacz as a sleeper. Outside of Carlos, Nole and Sinner, not a lot of players in form right now, so upsets may be plentiful.