GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

Gabriel426

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Jun 30, 2015
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I'm lukewarm on bertuzzi, I could be swayed one way or the other. But my God does Bertuzzi's goofy-gangly skating and choppiness remind me of David Clarkson. Like I cannot for the life of me believe my eyes when I watch Bertuzzi skate up and down the ice in the best hockey league in the world.
I would just keep Bert for entertainment. Still remembered one regular season game where he dived to block a shot that is like 20 ft away.

Jokes aside, I like what he brings to the team.
And he does his job and would be even better if he is on PP1 as a net front presence
 

Americanadian

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Sep 11, 2016
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I always hear the PA pressures players to get as much as they can. I can't confirm this happens, but I have heard it many times. They want star players to make more to drive pressure on the cap. The more teams that are up against the cap I guess the more pressure they can put on the cap formula in the next CBA negotiation?
I’ve heard the same story in the media but it’s just not true. The players as a whole get the same amount of money every season regardless of the cap. The cap going up only benefits free agents. It negatively impacts players under contract.
 
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Dion TheFluff

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Jun 22, 2015
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Let's say both of these scenarios are on the table for the Leafs after July 1 signing bonuses are paid. Which door would you choose?

Door A

:leafs
Shea Theodore

:vegas
Mitch Marner

Door B

:leafs
Juuse Saros
Tanner Molendyk
2025 2nd round pick

:nashville
Mitch Marner
definitely door B. Getting a goalie that matches the pedigree and talent of our divisional rivals could be huge + I think I remember seeing that the Leafs brass was really high on Moldendyk at the draft as well.
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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Marner would be Huberdeau based on the situation and player style. I’m not sure how much you remember from the Tkachuk/Huberdeau trade but Huberdeau was seen as the better player at the time by the public and specifically this website.
Marner
100 pt player
PK
200' defensive game
PP
selke candidate
Multiple 95 - 100 pt seasons

Huberdeau
Had a breakout year 120 pts
80 pt average in his career
PP
is not good defensively

Never thought he was a great player
Calgary should have traded him before he signed his big contract . I think ownership wanted him signed because of losing Jonny hockey and Tkachuk.
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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Curious if the Elias Pettersson drama could result in an EP40 for MM16 blockbuster. Just putting that out there and hoping the radio and podcast chatter can piggy back off this.
Peterson since he signed his contract has not played that great and if we are trading Marner it's to concentrate on D.
 
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Americanadian

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Sep 11, 2016
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Marner
100 pt player
PK
200' defensive game
PP
selke candidate
Multiple 95 - 100 pt seasons

Huberdeau
Had a breakout year 120 pts
80 pt average in his career
PP
is not good defensively

Never thought he was a great player
Calgary should have traded him before he signed his big contract . I think ownership wanted him signed because of losing Jonny hockey and Tkachuk.
Huberdeau was top 5 in hart voting that year. I’ve said it multiple times in this thread but Huberdeau is closer stylistically to Marner than Tkachuk and their contract status was identical.

You also called Huberdeau an 80 point player and Marner a 95-100 point player. In the 4 seasons leading up to the trade Huberdeau averaged 99 points per 82 GP. Marner has averaged 103 P/GP over the last 4 seasons.
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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I would just keep Bert for entertainment. Still remembered one regular season game where he dived to block a shot that is like 20 ft away.

Jokes aside, I like what he brings to the team.
And he does his job and would be even better if he is on PP1 as a net front presence
If we had dman that could get the puck to the net Bertuzzi tn. front bugging the goalie tipping picks in.

Trade
Jamcrock
kampf
Ljiligren



But concentrating on D first and 2nd

Montour would be a great add to the blueline
Tanev

Hopefully they can get JT to waive retain 4.5 mil
Sign Monahan for 5 nil
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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Huberdeau was top 5 in hart voting that year. I’ve said it multiple times in this thread but Huberdeau is closer stylistically to Marner than Tkachuk and their contract status was identical.

You also called Huberdeau an 80 point player and Marner a 95-100 point player. In the 4 seasons leading up to the trade Huberdeau averaged 99 points per 82 GP. Marner has averaged 103 P/GP over the last 4 seasons.
My bad 90 av
 

Brobust

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Sep 29, 2017
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So I've been thinking about some RFAs that might get non-tendered or traded that we might be able to pick up cheap like we did with Benoit last year, or Bunting previously. Some of the players are post-hype prospects, and some are guys that put up solid numbers in the AHL but haven't gotten an opportunity.

I've noticed that a lot of prospects have their breakouts much later on, between the ages 24-27 (i.e., close to the ends of their RFA status). Teams are thus forced to make hard decisions (pay or nay) and sometimes cut loose guys that end up breaking out with their new teams.

Examples:

Benoit (breakout at age 24)
Bunting (breakout at age 26)
Verhaege (breakout at age 25)
Bennett (breakout at age 25)
Forsling (breakout at age 25)
Marchment (breakout at age 26)
Zacha (breakout at age 25)
All these guys were either cut loose, not re-signed, or traded for very little.

Upcoming interesting RFAs that teams are going to make decisions on:

Lucas Carlsson, LD
Joseph Veleno, C
Akil Thomas, RW
Adam Boqvist, RD
Boris Katchouk, LW
Juuso Valimaki, LD
Lias Andersson, C
Kole Lind, RW
Jack McBain, C
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G
Phillip Broberg, LD

Did you stick Simon Benoit on that list of breakout players or is there some other Benoit I'm missing?
 

conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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I’ve heard the same story in the media but it’s just not true. The players as a whole get the same amount of money every season regardless of the cap. The cap going up only benefits free agents. It negatively impacts players under contract.
Except the cap gets renegotiated every so often. I would have to think the players association wants every team maxed out on the cap and before the Covid flat cap that didn't used to be the case.

Your position makes sense when every team is spending to the cap, when they are not all doing that you could see why the PA wants every player, fighting for every last dollar.
 

Brobust

Registered User
Sep 29, 2017
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Let's say both of these scenarios are on the table for the Leafs after July 1 signing bonuses are paid. Which door would you choose?

Door A

:leafs
Shea Theodore

:vegas
Mitch Marner

Door B

:leafs
Juuse Saros
Tanner Molendyk
2025 2nd round pick

:nashville
Mitch Marner

Neither. Don't want to get pending UFAs back in any Marner deal. They should target younger, cost controlled players. Because if you're trading Marner you want to make improvements in multiple areas and cannot be stuck with another big money contract.

I'm especially against the Saros trade. This team, which is top heavy even without Mitch Marner, cannot afford to spend $8-9M on a guy who won't be playing in 25-30 games every season.
 
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LeafSteel

GO LEAFS GO!!!
Mar 5, 2014
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UFA’s I am hoping for:

Elias Lindholm
Anthony Stolarz
Matt Roy/Pesce
Desharnais

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Robertson-Lindholm-Nylander
Bertuzzi-Tavares-McMann

Rielly-Pesce/Roy
McCabe-Liljegren
Benoit-Desharnais
Edmundson-Timmins

Woll
Stolarz
Hildeby
 

Gaberd2608

Registered User
Jul 14, 2022
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If we had dman that could get the puck to the net Bertuzzi tn. front bugging the goalie tipping picks in.

Trade
Jamcrock
kampf
Ljiligren



But concentrating on D first and 2nd

Montour would be a great add to the blueline
Tanev

Hopefully they can get JT to waive retain 4.5 mil
Sign Monahan for 5 nil


Pesce and Montour and our defense is overhauled. Not sure how much they each would want but if we can make Tavares disappear and a few others may be doable.

Rielly. Pesce
Mccabe. Montour
Benoit. Lybushkin
Edmonson. Timmins
 

LeafSteel

GO LEAFS GO!!!
Mar 5, 2014
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Toronto
Neither. Don't want to get pending UFAs back in any Marner deal. They should target younger, cost controlled players. Because if you're trading Marner you want to make improvements in multiple areas and cannot be stuck with another big money contract.

I'm especially against the Saros trade. This team, which is top heavy even without Mitch Marner, cannot afford to spend $8-9M on a guy who won't be playing in 25-30 games every season.
No interest in Saros and would be a mistake.

Woll has shown a lot. We have Hildeby chomping at the bit and we have a couple of goalie prospects showing well too.

You sign UFA Stolarz to 1B with Woll. He will sign for less than Samsonov and much less than Saros as a UFA.

You see what Woll has, and you let Hildeby and the other goalie prospects force their way through.

Saris in a Marner trade would be an absolute waste. I really don’t feel any enthusiasm for anything Nashville has.

Much more interested in Utah (boy that feels weird saying), Seattle, Columbus, Vegas, Buffalo etc.

Do this right and it could be a really significant move and moment in correcting things here.

Get it wrong and we are losing a tremendous talent in Marner that could set us back.

He needs to go, but we need to do it right.
 

Americanadian

Registered User
Sep 11, 2016
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Except the cap gets renegotiated every so often. I would have to think the players association wants every team maxed out on the cap and before the Covid flat cap that didn't used to be the case.

Your position makes sense when every team is spending to the cap, when they are not all doing that you could see why the PA wants every player, fighting for every last dollar.
If the cap is 20M or 100M the players still get the same amount of money. They always gets 50% of HRR.
 
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conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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If the cap is 20M or 100M the players still get the same amount of money. They always gets 50% of HRR.
50% was negotiated in the CBA. It is not an immovable number. The next CBA could see that number move up or down. It could also see the calculation for HRR be altered.

It is the PA's objective to have players making as much money as possible. There are 32 teams in the NHL, if the salary cap was $100M and every team was spending to the cap that would mean players are making a collective $3.2b plus LTIR players.

To reach their objective they can negotiate an increase in the cap split. 55% to the players would generate another $320m for the players. We also don't have all teams spending to the cap, they will want that too obviously.

If they are not pushing salaries higher on every individual negotiation they are not creating the leverage they need in negotiations.
 

4thline

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Jul 18, 2014
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He needs to go, but we need to do it right.
It would be really nice to get a star/top pair d back.

But my main worry right now is that we get hyper fixated on D and take a sub-optimal return with a lot of value being tied up in a dman of comparable quality to what we could have gotten via UFA.

I think there's a lot of paths/returns are "right" in that they could enable us to get a better playoff result, so many that unless we get blatantly hosed the only way to evaluate is going to be hindsight on the conclusion of Matthews contract- and whether we actually win something
 

Malachi Crunch

Registered User
Sep 24, 2022
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To Toronto: Juuse Saros + Jeremy Lauzon + Zachary L’Heureux
To Nashville: Mitch Marner

I wouldn’t mind something along those lines. L’Heureux seems like a player you’d love on your team but hate to play against.
I don't mind this. Saros needs to come with a lot of sweeteners. I really like L'Heureux. He may be a goon/greaseball who can actually play. Those players are rare commodities and you need to get them at a young age. L'Heureux's AHL playoffs were amazing. It's a great sign to see that type of player produce like that in the playoffs.
 

ErnieLeafs

Registered User
Apr 7, 2009
12,066
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No interest in Saros and would be a mistake.

Woll has shown a lot. We have Hildeby chomping at the bit and we have a couple of goalie prospects showing well too.

You sign UFA Stolarz to 1B with Woll. He will sign for less than Samsonov and much less than Saros as a UFA.

You see what Woll has, and you let Hildeby and the other goalie prospects force their way through.

Saris in a Marner trade would be an absolute waste. I really don’t feel any enthusiasm for anything Nashville has.

Much more interested in Utah (boy that feels weird saying), Seattle, Columbus, Vegas, Buffalo etc.

Do this right and it could be a really significant move and moment in correcting things here.

Get it wrong and we are losing a tremendous talent in Marner that could set us back.

He needs to go, but we need to do it right.
Saros is in the Vezina conversation, year after year. He's absolutely the goalie we haven't had since..... Belfour? Cujo?

And he fits the plan of having the best shot at a cup with Matthews signed
 
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JEI

Jericho
Jun 7, 2004
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Wolls injury history so far in his pro career would make me lean towards an established starter who can carry a 50+ game workload. Just until he proves himself more.
 

Tony Romo

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
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Petterson for Marner is interesting, but it still means we have 4 10m+ forwards next year. albeit, 3 would be C's. You'd still have space to sign a really good defender this offseason.

Don't know if the canucks would do it.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
52,799
34,886
Wolls injury history so far in his pro career would make me lean towards an established starter who can carry a 50+ game workload. Just until he proves himself more.

I don't disagree but that's going to be hard to find without giving up a ton of term and/or spending a lot of assets to acquire one. I think I'd rather just roll the dice on Woll, get a solid goaltender to back-up/start half the games and give Hildeby a shot as the 3rd stringer.

The Marner for Saros basis trade could make a lot of sense for that though. Not sure what a deal looks like for that but I'm sure you could probably get a Tomasino or something in it too.
 

Americanadian

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Sep 11, 2016
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50% was negotiated in the CBA. It is not an immovable number. The next CBA could see that number move up or down. It could also see the calculation for HRR be altered.

It is the PA's objective to have players making as much money as possible. There are 32 teams in the NHL, if the salary cap was $100M and every team was spending to the cap that would mean players are making a collective $3.2b plus LTIR players.

To reach their objective they can negotiate an increase in the cap split. 55% to the players would generate another $320m for the players. We also don't have all teams spending to the cap, they will want that too obviously.

If they are not pushing salaries higher on every individual negotiation they are not creating the leverage they need in negotiations.
If you’re the owners why would you care about money already committed when negotiating a split? If the players say “you’re already committing $3.2B, please give us more” where is the convincing argument? The money already committed is mitigated by escrow.

The league is also continuously moving towards owners who don’t rely on the team generated revenue to stay afloat. Moving away from owners like Melnyk and Mereulo - they are more prepared than ever for a lockout. It is far more likely that 50% goes up in favor of the owners than vice versa.
 

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