OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Doritos Bowl Match Up - Taylor Swift vs San Andreas Fault

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JTG

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I think they probably need a new QB. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pickett improved a lot next season but I think even if that happened, the Steelers would probably want a different QB.

But I think they've put themselves in the 4th and long of needing a QB and FA/trade aren't offering any convincing trick plays to get themselves over the line. In that situation, I'd rather punt than go for it because I think long term that works out better.

I would be interested in seeing if any of the 2nd/3rd tier of QBs in this draft drop to the 2nd or 3rd, but that's about it. Also that doesn't fit into the metaphor.

No one here is going to say that the QB position is not upgradeable. I just think there is a differing in philosophies of what is necessary v. an upgrade. I don't find QB necessary. I think Kenny can do everything we need him to do. Now in the future if there is a serious upgrade and we have a rounded out roster...draft the QB and ditch Kenny. All for that.
 

ChaosAgent

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What do you like about him enough to put him that high if you think he's a crappy bet to be a smart and accurate player?

Or I guess to put it another way - do we fundamentally disagree on what the most important attributes for a QB are, or do we agree but you see Fields very different, or do we agree and don't see Fields different in which case I am very puzzled.

I think Fields has likely made developmental strides in becoming a smart and accurate player, which is why the Bears and the national commentariat is even considering keeping him around.

In addition, I do weight athleticism and raw arm strength much higher. We saw the difference in arm talent between Pickett and Rudolph, and Rudolph isn't even elite in arm talent.

I also don't buy into "Steelers can never develop a QB" stuff because that seems to be a backwards justification to continue giving Kenny Pickett a job he has not earned.
 

Mr Jiggyfly

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There are two views -

1. Steelers build around Pickett and consequently, Pickett has the best chance to succeed, and if he does not, everyone (including Pickett) knows that it just didn't work out.

2. No matter who the Steelers bring in, as long as Kenny Pickett is here they will not be a successful football team. For the team to move forward, they need to get a QB and then build out from there.

I can't really see one side ever coming to the other. One is much less risky and would cost less assets. The other if they hit, it could send this team in motion for another 20 years. If they miss, it just sinks them further down.

I can't see any scenario next season where this team has a QB that can overcome Tomlin's incompetence AND the arms race in the AFC.

Fields, Wilson, Tannehill, doesn't matter... they are all roads to more mediocrity.

Best scenario now looks like hoping MR stays around and competes with KP.

I think KP will need to have really special stuff to fix the mental damage Tomlin and Canada have caused, and as I told you before, I'm not going to judge his dome game, but I have little hope there.

MR is a high level backup type, so if he wins the starting job, it's just 1996 Mike Tomczak with a bad haircut.

Upgrade the line and find the next guy in the future.
 
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Peat

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not to nitpick, but I don’t really consider the Steelers “dug into a hole”. They took a swing on Pickett and round 1 and they missed, but there are no long term ramifications from the move. Teams that have “dug themselves in a hole” would be the Broncos, Saints, Giants, and Raiders who all committed significant guaranteed money to vet QBs who aren’t good, and it’s difficult to get out of those contracts.

You could argue that could be the case with Fields if they immediately extended him, eg Danny Dimes, but it’s a little too early to speculate on that. A Jordan Love type of “prove it” extension seems like a possibility as well.

Fair.

They're not dug into a hole in terms of having a contract that they can't move away from.

What I mean by dug into a hole is that they're not in a strong enough draft position to start thinking about taking the draft's best. Honestly the best thing for the team would have been to leave Trubisky in there to tank away.

Combine that with not having a strong staff in terms of spotting and developing QBs, and I think the Steelers are in a hole in terms of not having routes to improving the position that make sense. I would rather they improved the team in such a scenario, both to boost the chances of getting a miracle this coming season and to be in a position where making vast outlays makes more sense next season if needed.
 

pistolpete11

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Yeah I just don't view a 2nd round pick and potentially ~$21m in 2025 as prohibitive if it could represent an upgrade at the most important position on the team, which is coincidentally our worst. That would be like the 20th highest QB contract by AAV. Sure, Pickett is cheap, but he's a bridge to nowhere. I just view continuing to give him more starts as being futile, and maybe that's where I just fundamentally disagree with some people on here.
The question is how much of an upgrade it is and if it's enough to win a Super Bowl.

If you think Fields can win a Super Bowl, fair enough. I don't, so what's the point on wasting assets and money on him?
 
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T1K

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Fields is a tough one for me. On one hand, I agree he’s the highest ceiling QB we can reasonable acquire this off-season, but on the other side he will cost assets and will immediately push for an extension, which could get messy.

I’m neutral about that move with a slight lean towards going for it. I liked him a lot as a prospect, and Chicago has been a dumpster fire org.
 

WickedWrister

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Your disagreement with me on Pickett would be I'd put the word probably in front of futile.

But the probably larger disagreement is that I'd then slap the same label on just about every alternative I can see.

At which point I believe it's best for the Steelers to accept they've dug a deep enough hole already and they are best off preserving their strength to climb out rather than to keep digging.
Yeah, shit's bleak man.

I guess we aren't in cap hell though? Assuming ARob/Cole are cut and Heyward restructures, we should be in good shape. No long term contracts on the books besides Watt, Minkah, and Highsmith which expire in '26, 27, and 28.
not to nitpick, but I don’t really consider the Steelers “dug into a hole”. They took a swing on Pickett and round 1 and they missed, but there are no long term ramifications from the move. Teams that have “dug themselves in a hole” would be the Broncos, Saints, Giants, and Raiders who all committed significant guaranteed money to vet QBs who aren’t good, and it’s difficult to get out of those contracts.

You could argue that could be the case with Fields if they immediately extended him, eg Danny Dimes, but it’s a little too early to speculate on that. A Jordan Love type of “prove it” extension seems like a possibility as well.
Let's say they trade for Fields and pick up his 5th year option. And decline Kenny's 5th year next year but keep him on the roster ala Devin Bush. That QB room would cost ~10m in 2024 and ~26m in 2025. Add another cheap option for the 3rd QB spot. That's still not breaking the bank and would put us around league average for the position. NFL Positional Payrolls
 
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T1K

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Fair.

They're not dug into a hole in terms of having a contract that they can't move away from.

What I mean by dug into a hole is that they're not in a strong enough draft position to start thinking about taking the draft's best. Honestly the best thing for the team would have been to leave Trubisky in there to tank away.

Combine that with not having a strong staff in terms of spotting and developing QBs, and I think the Steelers are in a hole in terms of not having routes to improving the position that make sense. I would rather they improved the team in such a scenario, both to boost the chances of getting a miracle this coming season and to be in a position where making vast outlays makes more sense next season if needed.
It’s been mentioned before, but KC traded up for Mahomes. They had a late 1st and put together a package to trade up. The problem is, I don’t think there’s a guy like that available this year. I’ve been trying really hard to sell myself on JJ McCarthy, but he’s just NOT it.

My thing with Pickett is I don’t really wanna burn another year on a guy we know isn’t the answer. I don’t feel that way about Fields, but I think it’s reasonable if someone came to that conclusion on him based off his NFL tape so far — the same way I have on Pickett.
 
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ChaosAgent

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Also @ChaosAgent, just because they were wrong about Pickett doesn't mean they have to go in the exact opposite direction.

I am fine if they go out and get Kirk Cousins instead.

Or bring back MR and give him an actual chance to beat KP on the merits.

The dialogue around Fields seems to be that he is rapidly improving, no? If that's just clickbait noise, then fine, but Chicago people seem to think keeping him is a viable choice. Certainly if we had the 1OA there would be zero discussion. That tells me that Fields is still a pretty good prospect in some circles.
 

JTG

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I can't see any scenario next season where this team has a QB that can overcome Tomlin's incompetence AND the arms race in the AFC.

Fields, Wilson, Tannehill, doesn't matter... they are all roads to more mediocrity.

Best scenario now looks like hoping MR stays around and competes with KP.

I think KP will need to have really special stuff to fix the mental damage Tomlin and Canada have caused, and as I told you before, I'm not going to judge his dome game, but I have little hope there.

MR is a high level backup type, so if he wins the starting job, it's just 1996 Mike Tomczak with a bad haircut.

Upgrade the line and find the next guy in the future.

And that's a totally different conversation. This isn't a whole lot different than when Haley came. We will see how it goes. I like the turnover on the staff. I think Tomlin has to accept change or his seat is going to get hot. I really do this this is the cross roads for him. This has been bad...if he has the entirely new staff and the team is still 8-10 wins and doesn't win a playoff game...that's not progress and they need to very seriously consider getting someone in here.

Part of me hopes they sign Tomlin to a decent contract this year because I could see him being an asset for us in 2 years if he shits the bed. Teams will never believe it's his fault. It's unbelievable.
 

Pens1566

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If I were Chicago, I'd trade back and let some team give basically 3 drafts worth of picks for that 1 pick. I don't think Williams is it and if they draft him and miss...the abyss only gets deeper for Bears fans.

This ^. I have a bad feeling that Williams is gonna "Manziel" his way out of the league in like ~4 yrs or so.
 

WickedWrister

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It’s been mentioned before, but KC traded up for Mahomes. They had a late 1st and put together a package to trade up. The problem is, I don’t think there’s a guy like that available this year. I’ve been trying really hard to sell myself on JJ McCarthy, but he’s just NOT it.

My thing with Pickett is I don’t really wanna burn another year on a guy we know isn’t the answer. I don’t feel that way about Fields, but I think it’s reasonable if someone came to that conclusion on him based off his NFL tape so far — the same way I have on Pickett.
I would be surprised if JJ McCarthy got past this run of teams in the middle of the 1st:
1707932681609.png


Then you got a lot of draft analysts saying things like this:

I just think some team is gonna fall in love with his tools + winning the natty.
 
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pistolpete11

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I am fine if they go out and get Kirk Cousins instead.

Or bring back MR and give him an actual chance to beat KP on the merits.

The dialogue around Fields seems to be that he is rapidly improving, no? If that's just clickbait noise, then fine, but Chicago people seem to think keeping him is a viable choice. Certainly if we had the 1OA there would be zero discussion. That tells me that Fields is still a pretty good prospect in some circles.
This may come as surprise, but I don't watch the Chicago Bears in my free time :laugh: So I have no idea if he's improving.

But I guess 'improving' is subjective. He 'improved' from a 85.2 QB rating last year to a 86.3 year. So technically, yes...? I guess. Pickett was 81.4 for reference.



For the record, I'm all for bringing Rudolph back. I think he fits Smith's offense well (run the ball and make big plays in the passing game) and will be the lowest risk (no picks needed and the contract will be reasonable). If neither Pickett or Rudolph show enough, look for somebody in the draft next year and Rudolph can be the bridge/mentor for the new guy.
 
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Peat

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Re Mahomes as a runner - to a certain extent, it's kind of irrelevant whether he's a runner or not. He's not fast for this generation of QB. Which ever way it lands, he's not a reason to get excited about blazingly fast QBs.

I'd also add that a few of those running QBs did it last by being really fast, and more by being pretty fast and very strong. Hurts is the obvious example. So too would Allen be if he made a final (which he can more than do if he stops running into Mahomes).

No one here is going to say that the QB position is not upgradeable. I just think there is a differing in philosophies of what is necessary v. an upgrade. I don't find QB necessary. I think Kenny can do everything we need him to do. Now in the future if there is a serious upgrade and we have a rounded out roster...draft the QB and ditch Kenny. All for that.

I mean that's kind of what I'm saying, at least this offseason. I do not look at the players available and see a meaningful QB.

Despite thinking it is borderline necessary.

I think Fields has likely made developmental strides in becoming a smart and accurate player, which is why the Bears and the national commentariat is even considering keeping him around.

In addition, I do weight athleticism and raw arm strength much higher. We saw the difference in arm talent between Pickett and Rudolph, and Rudolph isn't even elite in arm talent.

I also don't buy into "Steelers can never develop a QB" stuff because that seems to be a backwards justification to continue giving Kenny Pickett a job he has not earned.

Okay, gotcha.

For me the differences between what we saw from Rudolph and Pickett seems Canada based. Pickett was pushing the ball downfield aggressively and accurately in his one non-Canada game.

But yeah, I weigh athleticism about as low as possible for the position. It clearly matters but to me the make or break factor is the brain. I also think that if Fields had made serious strides towards being a smart and accurate player, his stats would look very different. There's a particularly weird and unlovely microstat where he was about the least accurate player from a clean pocket (bar Will Levis) and it wasn't even really close.

Finally re the "Steelers can never develop a QB"...

a) I think that's a pretty fair assessment of their efforts in the last 5 years or so. I'd go so far as to say that the Steelers' record with their drafted QBs since Rudolph is actually frighteningly incompetent.

b) They've got to try and do it anyway. There is no other game in town (bar a very lucky bounce in FA/trade) and in many ways, the quicker Tomlin does it the quicker he either proves the critics here wrong (win) or proves us right and gets fired (win). But I'd rather take good value shots. I haven't dug into Penix/Nix/McCarthy etc.etc. but there could be a guy there I'd feel good about in Rs 2-3. That makes a lot more sense to me than hoping we could put right 3 years of Fields' busted development.

Yeah, shit's bleak man.

I guess we aren't in cap hell though? Assuming ARob/Cole are cut and Heyward restructures, we should be in good shape. No long term contracts on the books besides Watt, Minkah, and Highsmith which expire in '26, 27, and 28.

They're not, but that's partly because they drafted like shit and don't have enough good players to be in cap hell :laugh: It's certainly not cap heaven either.

It’s been mentioned before, but KC traded up for Mahomes. They had a late 1st and put together a package to trade up. The problem is, I don’t think there’s a guy like that available this year. I’ve been trying really hard to sell myself on JJ McCarthy, but he’s just NOT it.

My thing with Pickett is I don’t really wanna burn another year on a guy we know isn’t the answer. I don’t feel that way about Fields, but I think it’s reasonable if someone came to that conclusion on him based off his NFL tape so far — the same way I have on Pickett.

If the team had infinite patience, waiting for an opportunity to jump up and grab a guy they really love is the best answer. Uhm. Infinite patience is not an NFL trait. But right now I'm not seeing it with any of the QBs who might be there (although at the same time, if it was easily visible, they wouldn't be there, soo...)

I don't love punting the year on Pickett, even if I think he's better than 80% of the people here. I'm just very skeptical about the alternatives. And if people want to lay out the case why I'm wrong about a guy, that'd be great, but so far it hasn't happened.
 

Pens1566

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I would be surprised if JJ McCarthy got past this run of teams in the middle of the 1st:
View attachment 819567

Then you got a lot of draft analysts saying things like this:

I just think some team is gonna fall in love with his tools + winning the natty.


I just can't see it with him. Something about him just seems off to me.

I've kinda ignored the top 3 (Williams/Maye/Jayden) because there's no way we would ever have a shot at picking them ... but out of the next tier I still prefer Nix by quite a bit.

And I've seen tons of mocks lately with us taking one of Hartman or the FSU guy in like the 6th. So there is that ...
 

JTG

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This ^. I have a bad feeling that Williams is gonna "Manziel" his way out of the league in like ~4 yrs or so.

I wasn't a fan of Williams just watching him. One of the opinions I really value a lot regarding draft prospects in Merrill Hoge. Merrill eviscerated Caleb Williams when someone asked him about the QB.

I like Maye more. I've liked Maye more through the whole process. I think he did more with less. That being said, he could Trubisky this whole thing. Maye is not without warts, but I think many of his warts are due to just having a team that wasn't very good. He seems much more coachable to me. Williams seems like a dude that an OC is going to have to be cool with giving him a structure and having him work within that structure.

I think Daniels is my #1.
 
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Peat

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I would be surprised if JJ McCarthy got past this run of teams in the middle of the 1st:
View attachment 819567

Then you got a lot of draft analysts saying things like this:

I just think some team is gonna fall in love with his tools + winning the natty.


I guess I get it. If he'd gone back for another year and developed on an expected arc, he'd be going top 5. So if you back your QB development, why not take the chance to grab him now?

But at the same time, I kind of don't, because it feels like he left a lot unproven and developing a raw QB in the NFL is different to doing it in the NCAA.

But there we go. I feel like Anthony Richardson shows us how NFL teams feel about raw tools high ceiling guys. Gobble gobble gobble.
 

Pens1566

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I wasn't a fan of Williams just watching him. One of the opinions I really value a lot regarding draft prospects in Merrill Hoge. Merrill eviscerated Caleb Williams when someone asked him about the QB.

I like Maye more. I've liked Maye more through the whole process. I think he did more with less. That being said, he could Trubisky this whole thing. Maye is not without warts, but I think many of his warts are due to just having a team that wasn't very good. He seems much more coachable to me. Williams seems like a dude that an OC is going to have to be cool with giving him a structure and having him work within that structure.

I think Daniels is my #1.

Hoge has had one too many concussions for me to take him seriously on anything anymore. His brain is mostly liquid at this point.
 

pistolpete11

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I don't think people would be talking about McCarthy going in R1 is he wasn't the QB for the National Champs. Michigan relied on a great defense, a dominant O-line and run game, and McCarthy managed the game. He barely cracked 200 yards most games. Granted a lot of that is on play calling, but I'd want to see more from a guy I'm taking in R1.
 

ChaosAgent

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This may come as surprise, but I don't watch the Chicago Bears in my free time :laugh: So I have no idea if he's improving.

But I guess 'improving' is subjective. He 'improved' from a 85.2 QB rating last year to a 86.3 year. So technically, yes...? I guess. Pickett was 81.4 for reference.



For the record, I'm all for bringing Rudolph back. I think he fits Smith's offense well (run the ball and make big plays in the passing game) and will be the lowest risk (no picks needed and the contract will be reasonable). If neither Pickett or Rudolph show enough, look for somebody in the draft next year and Rudolph can be the bridge/mentor for the new guy.

I think he improved towards the end of the year. They put in their backup, Bagent, and he outperformed Fields. That probably lit a fire under Fields as he realized that his way of playing wasn't conducive to winning. The Bears went 4-3 once they put Fields back in and people were generally happy with his play. I think that's why there's even some momentum to bring him back.

I'm fine with a Pickett/Rudolph competition as I have been the whole time. I'd trade a 2nd for Fields though if the option were available.
 

Peat

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I mean, he did better drafting before analytics were as a big of a thing as they are now :laugh:

Both laughing and intrigued by that.

Did Colbert do better because his judgment beat the analytics and when he listened to them he made more mistakes, or did he do better because his peers weren't as good and once they found analytics they found ways to be as smart?

Or just something else entirely.
 

JTG

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Re #2, how do you define “successful”? I think a lot of people in the camp to move on from Pickett believe he doesn’t have the ceiling to be a Super Bowl caliber QB. I don’t see him beating the gauntlet of AFC studs like Mahomes, Allen, Stroud, etc.

Don't see him beating...he has played Stroud once and Allen once. Both were bludgeoning, but both QBs put up 30+ and we couldn't even put up 7.

As I and many others have said, this year is it for Kenny. He has to come out and be successful. If he is not successful and this team doesn't look better, this entire team needs to be gutted and we need to start completely over from the coach out.

If this year goes poorly, they are much better off trading TJ, Minkah, and Highsmith. They will be past their primes by time this is cleaned up. After the 2024 season, I think there has to be a "nuclear" button and then need to blow this back to the studs and start over.
 
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