The Fate of Dubas

[zeke]

The Leafs have seen all of Hyman, Brown, Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, Andersen go out the door

oh don't forget Marleau, Hainsey, Zaitsev and polak too.

If you want a full accounting of the roster changes since the big contracts kicked in it goes something like this, as of last year:

Kadri ---> Tavares
Hyman -> Bunting
JVR -----> Mikheyev

Bozak ---> Kerfoot
Marleau -> Engvall
Brown ---> Kase

Komarov -> Kampf
Moore ----> Spezza
Martin ----> Simmonds

Plekanec --> Blackwell
Kapanen --> Robertson
Johnsson -> Abruzzese


Hainsey ---> Brodie
Gardiner --> Muzzin

Zaitsev ----> Giordano
Polak ------> Lyubushkin

Dermott --> Sandin
Carrick ----> Liljegren


Andersen --> Campbell
McElhinney -> Mrazek


At least as good forwards, huge upgrade on defense, and yes the goalies did get worse - though those inherited goalies got worse themselves anyways.

 

[Americanadian]

oh don't forget Marleau, Hainsey, Zaitsev and polak too.

If you want a full accounting of the roster changes since the big contracts kicked in it goes something like this, as of last year:

Kadri ---> Tavares
Hyman -> Bunting
JVR -----> Mikheyev

Bozak ---> Kerfoot
Marleau -> Engvall
Brown ---> Kase

Komarov -> Kampf
Moore ----> Spezza
Martin ----> Simmonds

Plekanec --> Blackwell
Kapanen --> Robertson
Johnsson -> Abruzzese


Hainsey ---> Brodie
Gardiner --> Muzzin

Zaitsev ----> Giordano
Polak ------> Lyubushkin

Dermott --> Sandin
Carrick ----> Liljegren


Andersen --> Campbell
McElhinney -> Mrazek


At least as good forwards, huge upgrade on defense, and yes the goalies did get worse - though those inherited goalies got worse themselves anyways.

Honestly didn't realize that Tavares, Muzzin weren't on the roster when Matthews/Marner contracts kicked in and JVR, McElhinney, Komarov, Bozak were. Sarcasm aside, I don't understand why you're adding in half seasons from Lyubushkin, Plekanec, Blackwell. Of the players you mentioned that I haven't already covered Mikheyev, Mrazek, Kase, Spezza, Campbell and most likely Simmonds are gone. The Leafs are left with Kerfoot, Engvall (pre-Dubas), Bunting, Kampf, Jarnkrok as the remaining of the top 9. If they had 3-4M extra in cap space as I previously mentioned they could have added Bjorkstrand or Niederreiter instead of Jarnkrok (and I like the Jarnkrok deal). If Bunting has another good season they are probably going to lose 2/4 of Engvall, Bunting, Kerfoot, Kampf next summer which just accentuates the ongoing problem here.

The defense is much better though!

The goaltending is up in the air.

 

[Legion34]

1. Winning league-wide trophies on a first contract is incredibly rare and 5/6 of the players did, exemplifying they are among the very best in the league. Matthews and Kane did not. Being the best in the league is worth something on a contract you would think?
2. I never added the years after the contracts were signed as I previously mentioned to you.
3. This is purely subjective on both of our parts.
4. Out of all the players judged, Matthews had the lowest amount of games played through his first 2 years so I don't understand this gripe.
5. Using cap hit for the actual year the contract signed vs signing year only pertains to Kane, Malkin and Crosby. For all three of those contracts the cap rose at a historically low rates the year their contracts kicked in. Crosby: 2008-09 lowest rise in the history of the salary cap. Malkin 2009-10: lowest rise in the history of the salary cap. Kane 2010-11: 2nd lowest rise in the history of the salary cap. You could make the argument all day long based off the trend of the cap that the teams anticipated these contracts having a lesser CH% when they kicked in.
6. I didn't ignore Kovy and Nash - I provided data with and without them. I think it's naive to use contracts that were signed before a single game was played with a salary cap.

Look at the largest UFA contract's ever signed: Panarin and Tavares. Did either of those players ever have better point totals than Gaudreau? Did either of those players ever win a league-wide trophy?

Once you figure out the answer to that question you may realize that UFA is all about desperation. If a team is desperate enough for high end talent they will pay whatever it takes. It is much more difficult to predict UFA contracts than it is to predict RFA.

1.) it is not about what you or I “think” it’s what the market suggests. Your thinking that a trophy adds 1% AAV means nothing. What if I “think” being the second greatest goal scorer of the past 30 years is worth more than 14%. It’s irrelevant. It’s what the market Comparables show

If you think 1 trophy on ELC is important. Why don’t you think 4 minimum is important?

2.) Matthews didn’t have the lowest goals or games at the time of his contracts. He played 2.5 seasons. Again you are conflating performs “after” Contracts while elc.

Matthews played 82 games plus 68 games. Plus about 40’games. He had played more than 164 games. It’s not possible you are comparing the numbers accurately
When looking at time of signing when many signed early.

3.) your numbers in the cap are wrong for crosby. His cap hit dropped 2% by the time it kicks In. Matthews dropped .03% . How is that the lowest Increase in
History.

4.) you are comparing “UFAs who left” with UFAs who didn’t. They are still ufa eligible contracts. That Tavares can be compared to.

But like you said. Despite desperation. Tavares 13.8% AAV is still at or below most ufa eligible contracts in a Bidding war. That’s more impressive not less

 

[Americanadian]

1.) it is not about what you or I “think” it’s what the market suggests. Your thinking that a trophy adds 1% AAV means nothing. What if I “think” being the second greatest goal scorer of the past 30 years is worth more than 14%. It’s irrelevant. It’s what the market Comparables show

If you think 1 trophy on ELC is important. Why don’t you think 4 minimum is important?

2.) Matthews didn’t have the lowest goals or games at the time of his contracts. He played 2.5 seasons. Again you are conflating performs “after” Contracts while elc.

Matthews played 82 games plus 68 games. Plus about 40’games. He had played more than 164 games. It’s not possible you are comparing the numbers accurately
When looking at time of signing when many signed early.

3.) your numbers in the cap are wrong for crosby. His cap hit dropped 2% by the time it kicks In. Matthews dropped .03% . How is that the lowest Increase in
History.

4.) you are comparing “UFAs who left” with UFAs who didn’t. They are still ufa eligible contracts. That Tavares can be compared to.

But like you said. Despite desperation. Tavares 13.8% AAV is still at or below most ufa eligible contracts in a Bidding war. That’s more impressive not less

1. Ignoring a player being the best in the league and receiving a trophy that says so seems biased.

2. I have been comparing the full season prior to signing as "platform years". For Matthews, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Nash that was 2 full season. For Stamkos and Kovalchuk that was 3.

3. NHL Salary Cap History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps here is a link to the salary cap by year. 2008-09 was the lowest increase in the history of the salary cap when it happened, so was 2009-10. It's a literal fact.

4. Yes I am.

Tavares' could have been in line with his UFA comparables but I don't know how you can argue Gaudreau didn't deserve the same amount of money if not more.

 

[Legion34]

1. Ignoring a player being the best in the league and receiving a trophy that says so seems biased.

2. I have been comparing the full season prior to signing as "platform years". For Matthews, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Nash that was 2 full season. For Stamkos and Kovalchuk that was 3.

3. NHL Salary Cap History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps here is a link to the salary cap by year. 2008-09 was the lowest increase in the history of the salary cap when it happened, so was 2009-10. It's a literal fact.

4. Yes I am.

Tavares' could have been in line with his UFA comparables but I don't know how you can argue Gaudreau didn't deserve the same amount of money if not more.

1.) you are ignoring 4 trophies. That seems biased.

2.) you have the years wrong. Crosby year it jumped 12%

3.) you comparing “platform years” ignores actual production and goals and performance that are
Relevant. You just deciding to cherry pick things has no bearing in the real world.


4,$ post pandemic gauranteed flat cap for 3 years is unprecedented. Regardless if that. Gaudreau was confirmed to be offered 8 x 10.5. This was openly reported
By the actual GM who offered it.

Guadreau took less. Just like Tavares.

 

[Americanadian]

1.) you are ignoring 4 trophies. That seems biased.

2.) you have the years wrong. Crosby year it jumped 12%

3.) you comparing “platform years” ignores actual production and goals and performance that are
Relevant. You just deciding to cherry pick things has no bearing in the real world.


4,$ post pandemic gauranteed flat cap for 3 years is unprecedented. Regardless if that. Gaudreau was confirmed to be offered 8 x 10.5. This was openly reported
By the actual GM who offered it.

Guadreau took less. Just like Tavares.

1. What 4 league-wide (not rookies only) trophies did Matthews win during his ELC?
2. I have the correct year. It jumped 12.7%, at the time it was the lowest cap rise in history.
3. I didn't invent the term platform year.
4. Tavares was reportedly offered 13M/year from San Jose and 11.4Mx8 by the Islanders. Again - UFA contracts are largely unpredictable.

 

[capfit9]

Stanley Cup Lineup:

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Stanley Cup Lineup:

View attachment 574013

View attachment 574014

Goaltending and bottom 6 forward group makes me want to puke. That is some ugly stuff right there.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

Yes thats how we got in a situation where we're one of the best teams in hockey.

You spelt regular season wrong.

 

[andora]

Goaltending and bottom 6 forward group makes me want to puke. That is some ugly stuff right there.

We never got the timing right .. where top players are supported by a middle group then supplemented by a quality cheap group.. last three winners showed this very well

We blasted through the middle part too fast where the top guys dont have the mid range support and are trying to attack it from behind now with the cheap group hoping the right mix sticks and the players come of age and outperform

This can reset itself if a bunch of our grown talent can step in and be impactful

It can also reset a bit depending on 34 and 88 new contracts into tavares expiring

 

[capfit9]

We never got the timing right .. where top players are supported by a middle group then supplemented by a quality cheap group.. last three winners showed this very well

We blasted through the middle part too fast where the top guys dont have the mid range support and are trying to attack it from behind now with the cheap group hoping the right mix sticks and the players come of age and outperform

This can reset itself if a bunch of our grown talent can step in and be impactful

It can also reset a bit depending on 34 and 88 new contracts into tavares expiring

Goalies in the Matthews-Marner Era:

Frederik Andersen
Jhonas Enroth
Antoine Bibeau
Curtis McElhinney
Garret Sparks
Michael Hutchison
Jack Campbell
David Rittich
Petr Mrazek
Joseph Woll
Erik Kallgren
Matt Murray
Ilya Samsonov

 

[mikeyz]

It doesn't seem like that at all. How could you come to that conclusion?

Because 6 straight 1st round playoff losses suggests that AM and MM are more about money then winning ATM. Until they win a round at the absolute minimum, that’s going to be the prevailing narrative.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Because 6 straight 1st round playoff losses suggests that AM and MM are more about money then winning ATM. Until they win a round at the absolute minimum, that’s going to be the prevailing narrative.

It doesn't suggest that at all.

 

[Menzinger]

‘Expected’ top 5.


You should also consider being paid in US currency with living expenses in CDN

Lots of things are also more expensive in Canada, which I think negates this though.

 

[Racer88]

Yes thats how we got in a situation where we're one of the best teams in hockey.

How can you keep saying that when we have been First round losers 6 years in a row

 

[ACC1224]

Lots of things are also more expensive in Canada, which I think negates this though.

I’m sure in some instances yes and others no.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Honestly didn't realize that Tavares, Muzzin weren't on the roster when Matthews/Marner contracts kicked in and JVR, McElhinney, Komarov, Bozak were. Sarcasm aside, I don't understand why you're adding in half seasons from Lyubushkin, Plekanec, Blackwell. Of the players you mentioned that I haven't already covered Mikheyev, Mrazek, Kase, Spezza, Campbell and most likely Simmonds are gone. The Leafs are left with Kerfoot, Engvall (pre-Dubas), Bunting, Kampf, Jarnkrok as the remaining of the top 9. If they had 3-4M extra in cap space as I previously mentioned they could have added Bjorkstrand or Niederreiter instead of Jarnkrok (and I like the Jarnkrok deal). If Bunting has another good season they are probably going to lose 2/4 of Engvall, Bunting, Kerfoot, Kampf next summer which just accentuates the ongoing problem here.

The defense is much better though!

The goaltending is up in the air.

It does get irritating thinking we can have both jankrok and nied on this team instead of kerfoot and engvall (his 2 mil in cap is needed for extra change). Big 4 + bunting kampf jankrok nied kubel now we're finally getting somewhere as a hard team to play against. All fits in cap too. I do like Kerfoot but Nied is better suited to reach the 20 goal mark and play better in top 6 when needed.

Engvall can actually stay I forgot about Holls 2 mil. Add ZAR to that depth and we sweep all series

 

[ShaneFalco]

How can you keep saying that when we have been First round losers 6 years in a row

Actual results do not matter. It's the expected wins, and should of wons, and luck

 

[MAB1]

Stanley Cup Lineup:

View attachment 574013

View attachment 574014

Gaudette, Simmonds out, Robertson & Knies in.

 

[andora]

We cant realistically expect a top spot contributing knies - it would be a bonus imo

I am excited about him as anyone.. but he will be coming off a smaller games played season number wise, and you wonder if the conditioning is there to warrant pencilling him in 2lw

Expect the neutral (bottom line spot duty and pressbox) and hope for better (2lw john leclair rookie sensation)

 

[capfit9]

Gaudette, Simmonds out, Robertson & Knies in.

no identity

 

[ShaneFalco]

Gaudette, Simmonds out, Robertson & Knies in.

How inspiring. Don't forget game-changer Denis Malgin

 

[Racer88]

Actual results do not matter. It's the expected wins, and should of wons, and luck

I would like this but I don’t have a like button for some reason

 

[andora]

I would like this but I don’t have a like button for some reason

I can like it for you.. but it will cost you 13 draft slots

 

[Racer88]

I can like it for you.. but it will cost you 13 draft slots

Is that 13 up or 13 down. Lol