Allens Five Hole
Registered User
- Jan 17, 2017
- 234
- 235
Agree with all of this.Austin was in the semifinals last year. Portland was kind of decimated by injury, but they're also notoriously strong at home.
I don't think anyone would say the team is GOOD like top-of-the-table expectation good, but I'd be pretty comfortable saying they are definitely not a BAD team in the MLS like everyone predicted them to be at the start of the season, and should definitely be in the pack. Starting 3-0 already gives them a big leg up on getting a playoff spot with the expanded format even if they struggle some this season.
They've scored a lot of goals off of what you could easily label as luck/out of character mistakes by the opposition, but their strategy is one that creates those mistakes by applying constant pressure and stretching the fitness of the opponents, so in many ways they make their own luck.
The team lead in expected goals in all three of their matches and had the better run of play by most people's eyes. I'm not really sure what sources are strong for soccer analytics, but Footy Stats has CITY ranked #7 in the league in expected goal differential. Their actual goals outpace their expected by the highest margin in the league so you can point to that as another indicator of luck, but it's more like they're lucky on top of outplaying their opponents so far.
I haven't seen any data on it but I would not be surprised if playing a heavy press style leads to the team outperforming xG and underperforming xGA, which would be true of the season so far. Being aggressive against the opposing backline will force mistakes that create opportunity but also leave you vulnerable to counterattack. It's chaotic, but it's also pretty fun and leads to more action on the pitch.
Last night was also fun because you really could see the team has a lot of belief in each other and their style and won't back down. They looked terrible in the first five minutes and conceded that goal but it didn't affect them. In the 81st minute they were protecting a 1 goal lead but they still weren't afraid to commit two players to pressure the opposing goalkeeper with the ball in his box. Most teams in any sport would be turtling in a similar situation but CITY is committed to playing their style. To me that's fun to watch and shows that the coach and the team have instilled the type of belief in each other we wish the Blues had this season.
That said, it's only three games. But there are real reasons to have at least some level of excitement. Ultimately, though, everything is gravy at this point. The team has the lowest payroll in the league and expectations were low. If they lost every game from here on out, the season would still be a success. But I certainly don't think that will happen.
I think there was a lot of misunderstanding with the way that STL City went about their business as an expansion team. I really like that we solidified the spine of our team with DP's and proven players at the top of European football. Burki played GK at Dortmund, a perennial Champions League last 16 club and Lowen has plenty of experience playing in the Bundesliga too, one of the better leagues in the world (probably 3rd behind Premier League and La Liga). Klauss also played on loan at the best Finnish club where they qualify for European competition yearly and he scored goals at a fantastic rate.
Regarding the heavy pressing style, there should be some concern that performances will begin to dip as the year progresses because it is extremely difficult to maintain those fitness levels across the full year, a bit like playing a heavy checking game in hockey.
I am really happy that they've picked up full points for their performances so far because chances are they will probably need every single point to make the playoffs year 1.