GKJ
Global Moderator
- Feb 27, 2002
- 188,065
- 39,986
“You’re not going to field 6 Makars,” is the number right before they hit rock bottom in the second act of the Flyers musical.
ExactlyHe cannot be good or even average. No NHLer has ever been drafted late and succeeded as a pro. 80-90% of the board here say he's nothing, so I guess that's that. Close the thread. We're done here.
Every cup winner has guys like this. Cernak, Hjalmarsson, McNabb… You need guys that won‘t hurt the team on a regular shift, or break the bank
McNabb was a huge scorer in Junior btw.
Once you look into how many pre-NHL low scoring guys actually make it, your worldview changes.
I can't imagine the organizational arrogance it takes to think you're the one who can identify the next Lucic correctly.
What are your thoughts on Mcdonald? Not enough offensive output to be a good enough puck mover at the NHL level?Yeh, the odds are infantisemal.
If you draft a CHL forward (example used as I have the stats AND place most guys drafted from) who is putting up less than 0.9 P/GP in their draft year?
It is a ~1% chance they become a "legit" top 6 NHLer.
Wayne Simmonds
Milan Lucic
James Neal
Mark Stone
Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Hagel
is pretty much the entire list of guys drafted between 2005 and 2018 (after that some guys still developing etc) who became top 6 forwards. 6 out of ~500. And not including all the guys NOT drafted who produced below that rate!
What are your thoughts on Mcdonald? Not enough offensive output to be a good enough puck mover at the NHL level?
When you get past #100, historically the odds get low to find a NHL player period.
10% for 200 games, 6.7% for 400 games, 4% for 700 games, 2% for Allstar.
So about 15:1 to find a guy who's a starter (and probably bottom six/bottom four).
And I suspect those odds are lower these days as scouting has improved (video world wide so no prospect goes unnoticed).
If McDonald turns out to be a solid 3rd pair D-man, that's a "triple" where he was picked.
Same with Sotheran.
Even then, the odds are still stacked against you.But a really good way to increase your odds is draft guys who actually produce against their peers...
undersized guys who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall - Barkey
poor skaters who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall - Knuble
guys buried on good teams whose numbers are suppressed - Avon
overagers who bloomed late and were fantastic at ~19-20 - Attard
account for 90% of all draft steals
Even then, the odds are still stacked against you.
Which is why it's good to pick up extra picks later in the draft, but fans often overvalue those picks, if you can add an actual player it's often better than a marginal prospect who might contribute in five years if he beats the odds.
You need guys like Hjarmalsson, who were All World defensive Defensemen. True. He was also paid the equivalent of 5+ in today’s AAV for two of Chicago’s Cups. Hell, that was an underpayment because the league as a whole hadn’t caught on yet. While we’re at it, Chicago let that guy sign an offer sheet right after their first Cup.
But mostly what kills me is the idea that Brayden McNabb was integral to a Cup win. Have you ever been in a traditionalist industry where things are done a certain way because that’s how they’ve always been done? Same argument. McNabb is fine. You can plug in any number of other guys who were also fine and not much will change. Some will be the same archetype and some won’t. Which is the point.
We'll see about Attard, he might get a call up later after the TDL...Feels like another headstone to add to the USHL to NCAA draft reentry graveyard: Kalynuk 2020, St. Ivany 2022, Attard 2024, McDonald 2026.
Mcnabb was the #4 dman on a cup winner making peanuts. That’s pretty integral to paying studs like Pietrangelo.
Just DiMarco for now.Did he sign an ELC? Anyone with a reliable source?
Why are you calling him a dumbass for this?Well you can't play on an ATO and still keep your college eligibility so he'll be signing an ELC (probably that starts next season). Dimarco is a dumbass.
There are plenty of examples of him proving to be a dumbass but if you want to simp for him go ahead.Why are you calling him a dumbass for this?
McDonald might very well sign his ELC next year if he looks fairly decent during his ATO, but there are instances of teams deciding after an ATO that a player isn’t ELC worthy.
He’s just reporting the facts. McDonald is heading for Lehigh Valley and he’ll be playing on an ATO, not burning an ELC year to play now.
I agree with everything you’re saying. He has absolutely proven himself to be a fool in other instances.There are plenty of examples of him proving to be a dumbass but if you want to simp for him go ahead.
A sophomore in college is not leaving school in March to play on an ATO and forfeit his college eligibility without the guarantee of an NHL contract on the horizon. If he's truly in Lehigh Valley already, he will be signing an ELC that likely starts next season and he will finish the year out in the AHL on a try out contract. Discussing the technicalities of an ATO are meaningless in this situation. By all accounts they love the player and see him as a big part of the future. There is a zero percent chance they are letting him walk after the agreement is up.
Btw he can walk in free agnecy this summer so the team has incentive to sign him asap.
He can sign an ELC that doesn't kick in until next year and still finish out the year with the Phantoms. Happens all the time. Ghost is the obvious one that comes to mind.I agree with everything you’re saying. He has absolutely proven himself to be a fool in other instances.
But I don’t think he deserves any disrespect for this story. Bad reporters can still do good work occasionally. DiMarco did nothing wrong here. He was actually the first (only) flyers beat to get the McDonald story last night.
I agree it’s extremely likely Hunter signs his ELC and it begins next year. But that’s not what’s happening right now. Reporting it that way would be wrong. Right now he’s just on an ATO and only eligible to play with the Phantoms unless an emergency arises with the big club (a player on an ELC would be free to be called up).
Honestly surprised they didn't. Especially with the injuries. Maybe if he hit double digit points they would have.Wouldn't it be funny if they signed him to an ELC for this year to burn a year -- and actually played him a few games in the NHL.