RD Artyom Levshunov - Michigan State Univ., NCAA (2024 Draft)

[Michael Farkas]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Ducks chose him. Just screams like a super long term project to me.

He’s not the quickest, his shot from the point is suspect, and his IQ (while I’m sure it can improve) hasn’t really shown me much

Here's the thing, and I don't want give too much of my report out because I can't...but there's a difference between a "project pick" and what this player is in some capacity. And it's really fascinating to see how people size it up...

So, for me, one definition of a "project" is a player who maybe hit a growth spurt and now has to re-find and refine his coordination and dexterity and understand all that kind of stuff...and you see the flashes of skill and all that...but the kid is a bumbling mess sometimes too. Or a player that hasn't really been challenged by a super competitive level of play and there's some really raw factors in there or he plays a really unstructured style that...blah blah blah...

Now, Levshunov is a really unstructured player. So...sure, you can make a claim that he's a "project". But the key thing here is where he's at on his physical development arc (I don't believe in the "single development arc" theory, if you will...combining all that we can glean about a prospect and throwing it on to one timeline...I think that loses some nuance, some really crucial nuance at that). He's really far along in terms of his physical development. He's strong, he's coordinated, he's there from that perspective. I don't mean that he won't get stronger or faster...that's not the intent. Right? Like...the amount of wasted words in scouting reports "well, he'll need to get stronger if he wants to blah blah blah" - yeah, the 17 year old kid isn't able to go 12 rounds with Ryan Getzlaf right now? Ya don't say...

But here's the thing...and this is where things get off the rails. Hockey sense at this point, isn't likely to go too much further as a whole. That's not how it goes - when you track the decision making process across time and leagues and all that... Now, there's elements of it that sort of decide how much room you have left to reasonably grow in that area...and it's really slight stuff, but it all adds up. You have your anticipation, right? On a broader scope, that's what you want. That's not really a trait of this player. But you have other elements...whether that's spatial recognition, adaptive processing, etc. and you have to weigh those out to make an informed decision on where the hockey sense can reasonably go. Coaching can be useful for pattern recognition - and that's hope for this player. Is that someone can give him some cues as to what to do in certain situations and it sticks.

If not, you'll get this sort of rover type player where anything can happen...and quite frankly (and I never would have said this 10 years ago, when I thought there was one dev arc...because that's what some people said I guess), I'd give that player a year to master what he can of his technical ability at a lower level...hypothetically, of course, maybe that's MSU, maybe that's MSU to the AHL, maybe that's a European pro season...give him one and get him in the show...because if you feel like you can't salvage the mental aspect, then don't sit around wasting his athletic prime.

Because once you start fall of your athletic prime and you have limited mental ability and, therefore, adaptability...it falls off quick.

So it can be...it can be a situation where it's almost a "reverse project". Instead of going, "well, this player finally made it at 23, glad we waited" it could be..."man, that player was diesel from age 21 to 26, and he fell off hard"...

 

[DemiGod]

If you don't want to make a mistake with pick 3, select Berkly Catton or Demidov, you won't regret it. Teams try to select a franchise-changing player in the top 3 of the Draft, not a shutdown defense who plays 1,200 games in 20 years and whose only value is to contribute depth chart.
This is an example of why so many teams fail drafting at the top of the draft.
ceiling > position

 

[tomd]

If you don't want to make a mistake with pick 3, select Berkly Catton or Demidov, you won't regret it. Teams try to select a franchise-changing player in the top 3 of the Draft, not a shutdown defense who plays 1,200 games in 20 years and whose only value is to contribute depth chart.
This is an example of why so many teams fail drafting at the top of the draft.
ceiling > position

I think most Anaheim fans (and probably fans in general) are assuming that Demidov will go 2OA. I'd have a really hard time taking Catton at 3OA and I can guarantee that GMPV would REALLY have a hard time taking him.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If Anaheim takes Lev and he hits they basically have a complete team. Of course it could always go the Ottawa but still, what a bright looking future.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

He's far from a project. He's already the best Defenseman in a strong hockey conference. That's a word that gets thrown around too casually on here imo.

That's why gauging and scouting prospects is subjective by person to person.

Anaheim needs a strong powerful shot on the backend. None of the scouting videos that I have seen regarding Lev show that he has a strong shot. They also have other mobile defenseman in their system (Luneau, Warren, Zellweger, Mintyukov, etc.) adding another defenseman is just going to create a logjam (especially if Verbeek has already traded off Drysdale because he loves Luneau).

But here's the thing...and this is where things get off the rails. Hockey sense at this point, isn't likely to go too much further as a whole. That's not how it goes - when you track the decision making process across time and leagues and all that... Now, there's elements of it that sort of decide how much room you have left to reasonably grow in that area...and it's really slight stuff, but it all adds up. You have your anticipation, right? On a broader scope, that's what you want. That's not really a trait of this player. But you have other elements...whether that's spatial recognition, adaptive processing, etc. and you have to weigh those out to make an informed decision on where the hockey sense can reasonably go. Coaching can be useful for pattern recognition - and that's hope for this player. Is that someone can give him some cues as to what to do in certain situations and it sticks.

I appreciate your insight Mike!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

People are starting to micro analyze him too much.

He's 6'2, built like a house already, skates well, plays in all situations, was a nearly 1PPG defenseman in the NCAA last season as one of the youngest players in the league, and was one of the leading scoring defensemen in the USHL the year before as one of its youngest players.

That's a top 5 pick in any draft. Whether he ends up Jack Johnson or Alex Pietrangelo or somewhere in-between, up for debate, but none of that would be a bad outcome with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

 

[majormajor]

People are starting to micro analyze him too much.

He's 6'2, built like a house already, skates well, plays in all situations, was a nearly 1PPG defenseman in the NCAA last season as one of the youngest players in the league, and was one of the leading scoring defensemen in the USHL the year before as one of its youngest players.

That's a top 5 pick in any draft. Whether he ends up Jack Johnson or Alex Pietrangelo or somewhere in-between, up for debate, but none of that would be a bad outcome with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

Certainly if you think Jack Johnson is an okay result at 3OA then it's all overanalysis. If that's not going wrong then you can't go wrong with Levshunov.

 

[Garbageyuk]

People are starting to micro analyze him too much.

He's 6'2, built like a house already, skates well, plays in all situations, was a nearly 1PPG defenseman in the NCAA last season as one of the youngest players in the league, and was one of the leading scoring defensemen in the USHL the year before as one of its youngest players.

That's a top 5 pick in any draft. Whether he ends up Jack Johnson or Alex Pietrangelo or somewhere in-between, up for debate, but none of that would be a bad outcome with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

Him and Buium are getting slept on so much. They put up 36 and 50 points, respectively. That is basically unprecedented for players their age.

Buium is capable of playing an elite, smothering shutdown game on top of that too. As the season went on, he improved at a ridiculous rate in that regard. This guy absolutely shutdown first Celebrini & Hutson, and then Gauthier, Smith, Perreault, and Leonard en route to the NCAA championship.

Levshunov is a big, strong, mobile RHD who has all the tools to round out his game as well. The base he has to work with is crazy.

Contrast these guy’s seasons with other recent college D prospects:

Quinn Hughes:

Draft year: 29 points
D+1: 33 points

Luke Hughes:

D+1: 39 points
D+2: 48 points

Lane Hutson:

D+1: 48 points
D+2: 49 points

Cale Makar:

D+1: 21 points
D+2: 49 points

 

[Adele Dazeem]

People are starting to micro analyze him too much.

He's 6'2, built like a house already, skates well, plays in all situations, was a nearly 1PPG defenseman in the NCAA last season as one of the youngest players in the league, and was one of the leading scoring defensemen in the USHL the year before as one of its youngest players.

That's a top 5 pick in any draft. Whether he ends up Jack Johnson or Alex Pietrangelo or somewhere in-between, up for debate, but none of that would be a bad outcome with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

Definitely higher IQ than a Jack Johnson.

 

[forever1922]

People are starting to micro analyze him too much.

He's 6'2, built like a house already, skates well, plays in all situations, was a nearly 1PPG defenseman in the NCAA last season as one of the youngest players in the league, and was one of the leading scoring defensemen in the USHL the year before as one of its youngest players.

That's a top 5 pick in any draft. Whether he ends up Jack Johnson or Alex Pietrangelo or somewhere in-between, up for debate, but none of that would be a bad outcome with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

I don't think questioning his few areas of weakness while admitting he is good at others is micro analyzing.

He is the consensus #1 defensive prospect of the draft after all. And for that debate it is valid to point out even if he does things well that others might surpass him eventually.

I wonder if teams are debating his upside vs the rest of the field or if they "settle" for lack of better word, for Levshunovs floor being so high.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I really don't think people understand how rare it is to be in the NCAA in your draft year, especially as a defenseman and it's not like he went to a Michigan level program where he was insulated with a lot of talent.

He's going no later than 3.

 

[mistaclick]

There’s a reason he’s so high in rankings and mocks.

Remember folks, he’s played two years in North America and prior to that he played in Belarus juniors!! (Where he produced at a level never seen before)

The potential is sky high considering where he was a few years ago compared to now. That’s why he’ll easily be a top 5 pick and I’d expect him to go 2 or 3.

 

[57special]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Ducks chose him. Just screams like a super long term project to me.

He’s not the quickest, his shot from the point is suspect, and his IQ (while I’m sure it can improve) hasn’t really shown me much

 

[Hockey Duckie]

That is not the point. If relying to get pucks through players is your play at the NHL level you have no offense to your game. He has room to add, but either his reads or his skating would need to enable that.

I don't see anyone underrating his defense, he has issues with, I think, consistency not so much compete but he has all the tools to be effective.

He can lead transition and defend and maybe that leads to enough outnumbered situations where he can still be contributing offensively. But for the those reasons offense is the area of his game that I feel is most uncertain.

When looking for the best defenseman of the draft, just as you would wonder if your offensive defenseman can develop his defense the same is true for Levshunov and offense. Which is more common?

Your two rebuttal points carry a particular preference to your own liking and misidentifying who Lev is.

=============================================
Point 1. There is a difference between 1v1 and team offensive play.
=============================================

Does Lev rely on getting pucks through players? That is like me asking you, "Did you watch the video I shared of EP's breakdown of Levshunov that identifies activation and misdirection as ways he can score points?" The latter answers the former. The video shows why Lev does earn a lot of primary assists, hence a team offensive player.

2024	Top D-men
Defenseman	League	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG		+/-
Lev	NCAA	38​	9​	26​	35​	0.92​		27​
Buium	NCAA	42​	11​	39​	50​	1.19​		33​
Parekh	CHL (OHL)	66​	33​	63​	96​	1.45​		39​
Dickinson	CHL (OHL)	68​	18​	52​	70​	1.03​		56​
Silayev	KHL	63​	3​	8​	11​	0.17​		-9​
Yakemchuk	CHL (WHL)	66​	30​	41​	71​	1.08​		-6​

That table is proof that Lev loves passing the puck around with the team than "relying on getting pucks through players." Buium is the same and easily comparable as they're both in the NCAA. For U19 NCAA scoring d-men, Buium ranks #1 and Lev #2. For all NCAA d-men scoring, Buium ranks #1 and Lev #9. That should speak volumes about Buium and Lev's offense, but it doesn't resonate with you.

You want a different type of scoring OFD, then you have Parekh and Yakemchuk.

A better example of misidentifying an offensive player would be saying Getzlaf won't be great at the NHL level as he doesn't want to score a lot of goals b/c he would be "relying to get pucks through players" like a Corey Perry. They're two different types of offensive scorers, one loves to pass (team offense) and the other loves to score goals (1v1). Apparently, both types can succeed at the NHL level.

================================================
Point 2. You identified Lev as a shutdown defenseman. That is a mistake.
================================================

When looking for the best defenseman of the draft, just as you would wonder if your offensive defenseman can develop his defense the same is true for Levshunov and offense. Which is more common?

I already identified that Lev was the 2nd highest scoring U19 d-man in the NCAA this past season and the 9th overall scoring defenseman in all of the NCAA. You're upset that Lev finished 2nd in U19 scoring d-man in the NCAA and 9th overall scoring d-man in all of the NCAA as a rookie? I don't understand the hate on Lev's offense.

Also, I do not comprehend this thought Lev is only a shutdown defenseman?

================================
Lev was an OFD who converted into a 2-way D.
================================

Lev converted himself into a 2-way D between his D-1 and D+0 seasons, while maintaining his scoring prowess.

Lev
Season	League	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG		+/-	+/- Rank on team
D-1	USHL	Green Bay	62	13	29	42	0.68		-15	Last
D+0	NCAA	Michigan State	38	9	26	35	0.92		27	First

Lev's offense as a defenseman in the USHL displayed top-end talent. He was the highest scoring d-man on team, fifth highest scoring d-man in the USHL, and highest scoring d-man U18 in the USHL.

Team high in +/- rating on the Green Bay team was a +11. There were only three players in double digit negative ratings on the team. Of course, Lev owning the worst +/- on the team with a -15 rating.

At a higher level of competition in the NCAA and on a not so stacked team, Lev finished first in +/- on the team. The second highest +/- was a +20. The team low was a -3 rating, by a defensemen.

As you can see, Lev has already vastly improved his defensive play as an OFD to where he can be identified as a 2-way D. Since teams can acknowledge this fact of rapid development for Lev, then the projection of his play into the future becomes higher as a 2-way D.

===============================
Where do high-end 2-way D go in the draft?
===============================

Let's look at the a recent "year of the defensemen" in the 2022 draft.

Tier 1: 2-way D

Nemec​

Jiricek​

Tier 2: High-end OFD

Korchinski​

Mintyukov​

Mateychuk​

Now, we can see why Lev is highly valued in the draft to where he might go #2 overall to Chicago.

 

[forever1922]

Your two rebuttal points carry a particular preference to your own liking

Yes, that is the point of having discussion. I humbly suggest you try having actual preferences over stats aswell.

I, nor anyone else consider Levshunov a shutdown defenseman at either level, honestly, what is the point in suggesting something like that? It is simply an opinion that his defense will improve, there is no doubt in my mind about that. But offense is where the doubts start creeping to me.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

what’s the issue? In every highlight video I’ve seen, I’m not impressed by his shot. I’ve said it countless times

 

[monsieurthibz]

Here's the thing, and I don't want give too much of my report out because I can't...but there's a difference between a "project pick" and what this player is in some capacity. And it's really fascinating to see how people size it up...

So, for me, one definition of a "project" is a player who maybe hit a growth spurt and now has to re-find and refine his coordination and dexterity and understand all that kind of stuff...and you see the flashes of skill and all that...but the kid is a bumbling mess sometimes too. Or a player that hasn't really been challenged by a super competitive level of play and there's some really raw factors in there or he plays a really unstructured style that...blah blah blah...

Now, Levshunov is a really unstructured player. So...sure, you can make a claim that he's a "project". But the key thing here is where he's at on his physical development arc (I don't believe in the "single development arc" theory, if you will...combining all that we can glean about a prospect and throwing it on to one timeline...I think that loses some nuance, some really crucial nuance at that). He's really far along in terms of his physical development. He's strong, he's coordinated, he's there from that perspective. I don't mean that he won't get stronger or faster...that's not the intent. Right? Like...the amount of wasted words in scouting reports "well, he'll need to get stronger if he wants to blah blah blah" - yeah, the 17 year old kid isn't able to go 12 rounds with Ryan Getzlaf right now? Ya don't say...

But here's the thing...and this is where things get off the rails. Hockey sense at this point, isn't likely to go too much further as a whole. That's not how it goes - when you track the decision making process across time and leagues and all that... Now, there's elements of it that sort of decide how much room you have left to reasonably grow in that area...and it's really slight stuff, but it all adds up. You have your anticipation, right? On a broader scope, that's what you want. That's not really a trait of this player. But you have other elements...whether that's spatial recognition, adaptive processing, etc. and you have to weigh those out to make an informed decision on where the hockey sense can reasonably go. Coaching can be useful for pattern recognition - and that's hope for this player. Is that someone can give him some cues as to what to do in certain situations and it sticks.

If not, you'll get this sort of rover type player where anything can happen...and quite frankly (and I never would have said this 10 years ago, when I thought there was one dev arc...because that's what some people said I guess), I'd give that player a year to master what he can of his technical ability at a lower level...hypothetically, of course, maybe that's MSU, maybe that's MSU to the AHL, maybe that's a European pro season...give him one and get him in the show...because if you feel like you can't salvage the mental aspect, then don't sit around wasting his athletic prime.

Because once you start fall of your athletic prime and you have limited mental ability and, therefore, adaptability...it falls off quick.

So it can be...it can be a situation where it's almost a "reverse project". Instead of going, "well, this player finally made it at 23, glad we waited" it could be..."man, that player was diesel from age 21 to 26, and he fell off hard"...

That has to be my favorite post of the month. Thanks a lot not only for your insight, but your way of explaining and vulgarizing was a nice treat for my eyes and my brain.

 

[tomd]

I don't think questioning his few areas of weakness while admitting he is good at others is micro analyzing.

He is the consensus #1 defensive prospect of the draft after all. And for that debate it is valid to point out even if he does things well that others might surpass him eventually.

I wonder if teams are debating his upside vs the rest of the field or if they "settle" for lack of better word, for Levshunovs floor being so high.

Totally agree. Setting aside the left/right dynamic, I think there is a world where he could be the third or fourth defensemen off the board behind Silayev, Buium, and Dickinson. I think teams may feel that these other D may have more upside in 3-5 years than Levshunov. Of course, all it takes is one team to love him at 2OA or 3OA and he'll go first but the choice is all going to be based on projection and every team will have their own opinion.