Pre-Game Talk: Perry is in! Oilers v Nashville

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TopShelfGloveSide

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gags did plenty of PK for Detroit, and hes one of our top players in ev points per 60… he scored 16 points in 16
games to get CBJ to the 2nd longest all-time win streak… he has been there before. Call me cray cray but G unit has done everything possible on and off the ice to earn it. Brown is 700 days without a goal. Gags can PK. Half the team can PK Actually. Reducing down to 3 Pk pairings is a very recent development. Most of em aren’t even our best PKers, they just can’t do anything else well so they get their ice time on PK when they can. Hyman is a better PKer than Brown, and maybe Perry is a better netfront presence.
You want to use Hyman on the PK? The top line minutes guy who plays like a dog every shift? Hell why not just put McDrai out every PK as well.

“Most em’ aren’t our best Pkers.” You mean Brown, Ryan and Janmark I assume? Please enlighten me how you came to this conclusion.
 
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alphahelix

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You want to use Hyman on the PK? The top line minutes guy who plays like a dog every shift? Hell why not just put McDrai out every PK as well.

“Most em’ aren’t our best Pkers.” You mean Brown, Ryan and Janmark I assume? Please enlighten me how you came to this conclusion.
McLellan Tippett Hitch etc all used McDrai at times, because they’re the best. Hyman is one of the best. Janmark is one of the best. If you’re worried we wont have enough PKers without Brown…. The PK will improve with one of those guys added in. Some of them have proven they can do both.

EV we could use more juice lately. Gags has top 4 scoring rates at EV. PP we could use more juice too. None of this would hurt.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

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I love Sam Gagner, but he was never fast, and he has his hips rebuilt in the offseason, he can't PK at this point in his career, imo, and I thought he looked noticeable slow against the Hawks, I think him having a game off is fine.

Personally I would sit Janmark, but I get it.
 
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tiger_80

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Quickie PGT!

Looks like Gagner will be the scratch.

Perry Finch.

The nice thing about these lines, is that most of the guys on the bottom six are or will be part of some special teams, to get them more ice time, and into the game more. Janmark, Brown, Ryan and McLeod killing penalties, and Perry with 2nd unit PP duty.
Depending on how he fares, I won't be surprised if Perry gets some ice time on the top 2 lines. He scored 40 points only 2 years ago and had something like 9 points in 16 games to start this season. That's pretty much what Foegele has produced on the 2nd line.
 

TheBrew

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I love Sam Gagner, but he was never fast, and he has his hips rebuilt in the offseason, he can't PK at this point in his career, imo, and I thought he looked noticeable slow against the Hawks, I think him having a game off is fine.

Personally I would sit Janmark, but I get it.
The 06 team had Harvey, Dvorak, Winchester, Laraque coming in and out of the lineup. Depth is a good thing come the playoffs.
 

Drivesaitl

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Our PK was terrible last season. No Gagner hasn’t been Pking this season. He killed penalties 3 years ago? So what.

How is it odd? It’s common sense.
I don't think you clearly follow the cause and effect. The Oilers pk wasn't terrible last season it was average. A Connor Brown specifically being on your pk may make a difference of a couple GA in a complete season.

Gagner already has 2 GWG's this season. you know, scoring the winning goal, the most quantifiable contribution to winning there is.

Theres 5% difference between our pk this season and last. Improved, yes, but not all or even significant amount of that improvement can be attributed to Brown.

Lets do some basic arithmetic. The Oilers have been shorthanded 150X this season. They're 5% better on pk. This means they've allowed about 7 less goals on pk this season than they would if they had the same kill rate as last season. Long story short it ends up being a small difference. For instance in this whole 15 game Win streak it would represent about 2 GA. Connor Browns proportion of that difference would be negligible. The differentiation between Connor Brown and X player filling in on the pk would be very small.

Scoring goals, and particularly GWG> effect on Winning games than a modest contribution on pk. "its common sense" But apparently it needs explaining.
 

TopShelfGloveSide

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McLellan Tippett Hitch etc all used McDrai at times, because they’re the best. Hyman is one of the best. Janmark is one of the best. If you’re worried we wont have enough PKers without Brown…. The PK will improve with one of those guys added in. Some of them have proven they can do both.

EV we could use more juice lately. Gags has top 4 scoring rates at EV. PP we could use more juice too. None of this would hurt.
How was our PK when we had McDrai playing on it?
I don't think you clearly follow the cause and effect. The Oilers pk wasn't terrible last season it was average. A Connor Brown specifically being on your pk may make a difference of a couple GA in a complete season.

Gagner already has 2 GWG's this season. you know, scoring the winning goal, the most quantifiable contribution to winning there is.

Theres 5% difference between our pk this season and last. Improved, yes, but not all or even significant amount of that improvement can be attributed to Brown.

Lets do some basic arithmetic. The Oilers have been shorthanded 150X this season. They're 5% better on pk. This means they've allowed about 7 less goals on pk this season than they would if they had the same kill rate as last season. Long story short it ends up being a small difference. For instance in this whole 15 game Win streak it would represent about 2 GA. Connor Browns proportion of that difference would be negligible. The differentiation between Connor Brown and X player filling in on the pk would be very small.

Scoring goals, and particularly GWG> effect on Winning games than a modest contribution on pk. "it’s common sense" But apparently it needs explaining.
No. It was below average. And the debate started with me saying the Pk is clicking at 92% on this streak so why would you pull one of the main Pkers. So your 5% argument is irrelevant. If the PK numbers start dropping I wouldn’t be opposed to him sitting out.

The common sense comment was you not grasping that the winner of the special teams battle usually wins the games.
 

Drivesaitl

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How was our PK when we had McDrai playing on it?

No. It was below average. And the debate started with me saying the Pk is clicking at 92% on this streak so why would you pull one of the main Pkers. So your 5% argument is irrelevant. If the PK numbers start dropping I wouldn’t be opposed to him sitting out.

The common sense comment was you not grasping that the winner of the special teams battle usually wins the games.
The improved pk has a slight bit to do with Brown. It has more to do with the coaching, and with the unit buy ins. The bolded has little to do with Brown specifically who is only on one of the units, and probably doesn't make even an appreciable difference. Any difference Brown might make on pk is outweighed by his deleterious effects on offense any time he's on the ice.

The Net effect of a Connor Brown is arguably worse than not having him at all. Thats the bottom line.
 
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TopShelfGloveSide

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The improved pk has a slight bit to do with Brown. It has more to do with the coaching, and with the unit buy ins. The bolded has little to do with Brown specifically who is only on one of the units, and probably doesn't make even an appreciable difference. Any difference Brown might make on pk is outweighed by his deleterious effects on offense any time he's on the ice.

The Net effect of a Connor Brown is arguably worse than not having him at all. Thats the bottom line.
Ok.
 
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McFlyingV

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Giddy to see Perry in the bottom 6 with McLeod and Hollywood. I think he scores tomorrow.

Let’s see if he can skate better than Lucic first.
Completely different player so kind of a weird comment. Perry doesn't rely on throwing bone crushing hits to be effective and never has. He goes to the dirty areas in front of the net, has excellent hockey IQ and has a quality set of hands. None of the characteristics that Lucic had at any point in his career.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

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The improved pk has a slight bit to do with Brown. It has more to do with the coaching, and with the unit buy ins. The bolded has little to do with Brown specifically who is only on one of the units, and probably doesn't make even an appreciable difference. Any difference Brown might make on pk is outweighed by his deleterious effects on offense any time he's on the ice.

The Net effect of a Connor Brown is arguably worse than not having him at all. Thats the bottom line.
This is stupid. He can't piss a drop offensively, no question, if you think he's a net negative, you aren't watching. And if you are watching you aren't paying attention.
 

Drivesaitl

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This is stupid. He can't piss a drop offensively, no question, if you think he's a net negative, you aren't watching. And if you are watching you aren't paying attention.
Sure jimmi

Being that you don't understand I'll try to simplify it. Connor Brown being on ice EV has resulted in probably around 8-10 less goals for being scored than should be expected given the toi, allotment, matchups, QOT, QOC etc. That Connor Brown conversely may impact 2-3 less pkGA in a season doesn't make up for the potential EV goals squandered.

Nor can it be said that Connor Brown on ice is a net benefit of any kind EV. He has 8 more GA than GF on ice.

So that the net benefit is negative, dressing Connor Brown for games this season. If one wants to look at the cap cost of it in total its even more of a negative.
 
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McFlyingV

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This is stupid. He can't piss a drop offensively, no question, if you think he's a net negative, you aren't watching. And if you are watching you aren't paying attention.
I don't think he's a net negative, he's a quality forechecker and backchecker and he's creating chances, but obviously until those start going into the net he's more of a net nothing at 5v5.

With that said he's a quality PKer, and one of our top 4 forwards. The best unit in terms of results is still McLeod and Foegele, but his unit is doing good work as well.

I guess the obvious rotation of players at this point is Janmark, Brown and Gagner for the 4th line. Janmark likely stays in more frequently because he's a left shot, but I think there's pro's and con's of having Brown or Gagner in the lineup. More offence obviously (at this point) from Gagner, but at the cost of some defensive play and pk play. Having the option to rotate guys on the 4th line is a good thing.

The 06 team had Harvey, Dvorak, Winchester, Laraque coming in and out of the lineup. Depth is a good thing come the playoffs.
Dick Tarnstrom and Matt Greene too. That team had excellent depth.
 

Drivesaitl

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I don't think he's a net negative, he's a quality forechecker and backchecker and he's creating chances, but obviously until those start going into the net he's more of a net nothing at 5v5.

With that said he's a quality PKer, and one of our top 4 forwards. The best unit in terms of results is still McLeod and Foegele, but his unit is doing good work as well.

I guess the obvious rotation of players at this point is Janmark, Brown and Gagner for the 4th line. Janmark likely stays in more frequently because he's a left shot, but I think there's pro's and con's of having Brown or Gagner in the lineup. More offence obviously (at this point) from Gagner, but at the cost of some defensive play and pk play. Having the option to rotate guys on the 4th line is a good thing.
Statistically speaking Brown is a net negative.

He's a cooler on any line he's on and still while having appreciable EVGA. He's not even playing shutdown hockey EV.
 
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McFlyingV

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Perry Finch.


Depending on how he fares, I won't be surprised if Perry gets some ice time on the top 2 lines. He scored 40 points only 2 years ago and had something like 9 points in 16 games to start this season. That's pretty much what Foegele has produced on the 2nd line.
I'm sure he'll get some looks in the top 6 at points when they shuffle the lines and I wouldn't be surprised if he looked good there. McDavid and Drai have both looked good with Maroon, and at this point in his career Perry still has the touch around the net, but can't do as much of the puck retrieval heavy lifting or carrying the puck into the zone.

Would actually shape up pretty nicely is he ended up fitting in the top 6 and they could run a McLeod-Holloway-Foegele 3rd line. Either way I love all the possible options, and hopefully they add another player or two before the deadline.
 

TopShelfGloveSide

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Giddy to see Perry in the bottom 6 with McLeod and Hollywood. I think he scores tomorrow.
I’m also giddy to see that line. I also think sometimes players try to push Holloway around because he’s young and plays an aggressive game. It will be interesting to see if they do that with Perry floating around. Perry had an hilarious amount of fights last season. (9 + 1 in the playoffs)
 

tiger_80

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I'm sure he'll get some looks in the top 6 at points when they shuffle the lines and I wouldn't be surprised if he looked good there. McDavid and Drai have both looked good with Maroon, and at this point in his career Perry still has the touch around the net, but can't do as much of the puck retrieval heavy lifting or carrying the puck into the zone.

Would actually shape up pretty nicely is he ended up fitting in the top 6 and they could run a McLeod-Holloway-Foegele 3rd line. Either way I love all the possible options, and hopefully they add another player or two before the deadline.
As far as I recall, in his prime he was excellent at cycling the puck together with Getzlaf. he could shoot too, but his skating was average at most.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

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I don't think he's a net negative, he's a quality forechecker and backchecker and he's creating chances, but obviously until those start going into the net he's more of a net nothing at 5v5.

With that said he's a quality PKer, and one of our top 4 forwards. The best unit in terms of results is still McLeod and Foegele, but his unit is doing good work as well.

I guess the obvious rotation of players at this point is Janmark, Brown and Gagner for the 4th line. Janmark likely stays in more frequently because he's a left shot, but I think there's pro's and con's of having Brown or Gagner in the lineup. More offence obviously (at this point) from Gagner, but at the cost of some defensive play and pk play. Having the option to rotate guys on the 4th line is a good thing.


Dick Tarnstrom and Matt Greene too. That team had excellent depth.
I've advocated for Brown to be part of that rotation, because I believe other guys can fill in on the PK, but my main point is Connor Brown is not a net negative to the Oilers in games. Expecting more from him is fine, more was expected when was signed, but treating that short coming like nothing he does matters is stupid. Straight up.
 
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McFlyingV

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As far as I recall, in his prime he was excellent at cycling the puck together with Getzlaf. he could shoot too, but his skating was average at most.
Yeah he's a good cycle player, but never had amazing wheels. A lot of his success came from his hockey IQ and a nice set of hands around the net though. Much like his nickname "the worm" he should be able to wiggle into just about any of the 4 lines on this roster and not look out of place.
 

K1984

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I don't think you clearly follow the cause and effect. The Oilers pk wasn't terrible last season it was average. A Connor Brown specifically being on your pk may make a difference of a couple GA in a complete season.

Gagner already has 2 GWG's this season. you know, scoring the winning goal, the most quantifiable contribution to winning there is.

Theres 5% difference between our pk this season and last. Improved, yes, but not all or even significant amount of that improvement can be attributed to Brown.

Lets do some basic arithmetic. The Oilers have been shorthanded 150X this season. They're 5% better on pk. This means they've allowed about 7 less goals on pk this season than they would if they had the same kill rate as last season. Long story short it ends up being a small difference. For instance in this whole 15 game Win streak it would represent about 2 GA. Connor Browns proportion of that difference would be negligible. The differentiation between Connor Brown and X player filling in on the pk would be very small.

Scoring goals, and particularly GWG> effect on Winning games than a modest contribution on pk. "its common sense" But apparently it needs explaining.

Our PK killed us in key moments last year despite being average.

Elite PK is critically important to this team, especially considering the treatment we get from the refs, and especially considering our PP is average this year and can’t seem to be relied upon to make up for PK shortfalls. 7 less goals this year is a lot, possibly worth up to 4-6 standings points. Maybe more considering the number of low scoring games we have been involved in.

I like Gagner, but if we’re being honest with ourselves he has been a beneficiary of having a combination of a bit of a hot hand and good luck. 2 random GWG’s doesn’t change that. The strength of our PK, which has been a backbone of our success since Woodcroft stopped having a chance to wreck it, has been a staple and will continue to need to be so for us to win everything.
 
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