The Cap is still the issue, and that actually looks worse now than it did. By the time MacK's next contract rolls around, we are looking at a 13-14m per deal and probably dealing with a flat (or decreasing) cap the next two seasons before maybe rising to high 80s in 2023. Makar is probably a minimum $8m per contract. Landy is going to be a minimum $7m contract. So 2023 you're looking at MacK $13m, Makar $8m, Landy $7m, Rants 9.25m, and Girard at $5m. That is 42.25m between 5 players. That leaves 47.75m for 16-18 players assuming a $90m cap. If Byram ends up as good as the Avs need him to be to contend long-term... we will be probably looking at $7m for him. So basically $50m between the final 15-17 players... where the Avs will need 3 more impact forwards with none under contract now... 15m there between 3 is probably on the extreme low end. Now up to $65 and 25m to spend for a complete bottom 6, 13th F, 4-7D, and 2 goalies. On the goalie front say one prospect works out and one of Frank/Grubs is here for $5m total, likely a low total. Now down to 20m for 9 spots. If Timmins ends up being our #4 guy and he gets a bridge, let's say $3m. Down to 17m for 8 final spots. The #3C market UFA is over $5m now... can't go down that route, so counting on Bowers, well he will be out of his ELC and to his bridge deal. If he ends up Compher level (and we frankly need better), there is minimum 3.5m. Kaut needs to be at that level too. 10m for final 6 spots now.
It gets tight very quickly, even with low assumptions... and even then there isn't reprieve. Say Newhook ends up a #2C and doesn't start his contract until 21-22, well a year after MacK gets his extension... we're looking at $8+m for Newhook to re-up. The year after that, Rants is back up for his extension, and he's going to look to 14+. The Avs will have to find another ~11-12m in room within 2 seasons if that happens. Keeping top talent won't be the issue, it is going to be keeping quality depth when the cap is an issue. All teams who have success run into it and have to re-tool. Some come back, some don't.