Proposal: Marner to Pittsburgh
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Empoleon8771
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Adding Jarry is a deal killer for the Leafs. Absolutely no way they'd take him on in this deal as well.
I doubt it would ever happen, but I figure a Marner to Pittsburgh deal would be something like Pettersson, Smith, Koivunen and a lottery protected 2025 1st for Marner with some salary retention. All 3 of those players have only 1 year left on their deals, so there is no long-term cap committment for any of those guys.
Then to replace Pettersson, you just try to do a 1 for 1 swap with Rakell for a similarly aged and priced defenseman. Something like Rakell to Colorado for Girard, although I'm not sure Colorado would do that.
I doubt it would ever happen, but I figure a Marner to Pittsburgh deal would be something like Pettersson, Smith, Koivunen and a lottery protected 2025 1st for Marner with some salary retention. All 3 of those players have only 1 year left on their deals, so there is no long-term cap committment for any of those guys.
Then to replace Pettersson, you just try to do a 1 for 1 swap with Rakell for a similarly aged and priced defenseman. Something like Rakell to Colorado for Girard, although I'm not sure Colorado would do that.
Marner just isn't what the Pen need here. Plus giving up assets for a 10 million dollar winger is simply a waste with Sid winding down and Geno in decline. Leafs don't have the assets the Pens need to retool the roster. Plus Mathews needs wingers to justify the extension.
Don't see the pens as a fit for Marner. We need a D who fits the age of our core, and the Pens don't have that.
Bruce Granville
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- Oct 11, 2014
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Yeah.
The Leafs need D.
Karlsson or Doughty are the only above average D possibly available.
- Jun 13, 2010
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I'd probably do it.
Petts, Koivunen, Smith, 1st is too rich for me. I'd rather send them Karlsson then find a swap for Smith or Rakell for a 2nd pairing RD or sign Pesce, Montour, Dumba, etc.
I see it as a win win. Leafs get a #1 RHD which is their biggest weakness (along with goaltending). Pens get a ~100pt winger who can help get them get to the post season.
Once the Pens are in the post-season, they can rest Marner and save him up for next year's regular season.
hamzarocks
Registered User
Karlsson is a long term cap dump
Marner is a maybe 1 year cap dump
No interest from the leafs
Pens are one of the few teams that would actually be a great fit for Marner since he wouldn't have to be a leader or looked to for the bulk of the scoring (see Phil Kessel).
I honestly see this as a potential trade in the offseason.
Perhaps a goalie, defencemen and picks go the other way
Perhaps a goalie, defencemen and picks go the other way
SomeDude
Registered User
As others have mentioned.... Pittsburgh is probably an ideal potential landing spot for Marner. Play him alongside Sid or Geno, bring the average age of their team down a bit and enough cap space to make it work.
The problem is, as others have mentioned, the Pens don't really have much that would be objectively attractive to the Leafs. The only relevant forward they have under the age of 30 is Michael Bunting, who the Leafs were fairly happy to let walk at $4.5m.
On D, I think the Leafs would be looking much more for a Parayko or Larssson-type than a Karlsson type on the right side, and in goal, Tristan Jarry seems very "meh". Ryan Graves maybe an interesting target, although I'm sure the Leafs would rather look for somebody on the right side.
Drew O'Connor would be an interesting add, but an undrafted player with 24 goals and 50 points in 157 NHL games doesn't really move the needle in a Mitch Marner deal.
I'd imagine that a 3rd team would probably have to get involved, to give the Leafs something that they can really use; and/or provide some retention on Marner... or maybe Dubas takes the approach of using his ability to take on Marner's cap hit without retention as their "X factor"; and it's something like O'Connor, Yager, and Graves.
The problem is, as others have mentioned, the Pens don't really have much that would be objectively attractive to the Leafs. The only relevant forward they have under the age of 30 is Michael Bunting, who the Leafs were fairly happy to let walk at $4.5m.
On D, I think the Leafs would be looking much more for a Parayko or Larssson-type than a Karlsson type on the right side, and in goal, Tristan Jarry seems very "meh". Ryan Graves maybe an interesting target, although I'm sure the Leafs would rather look for somebody on the right side.
Drew O'Connor would be an interesting add, but an undrafted player with 24 goals and 50 points in 157 NHL games doesn't really move the needle in a Mitch Marner deal.
I'd imagine that a 3rd team would probably have to get involved, to give the Leafs something that they can really use; and/or provide some retention on Marner... or maybe Dubas takes the approach of using his ability to take on Marner's cap hit without retention as their "X factor"; and it's something like O'Connor, Yager, and Graves.
Empoleon8771
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I think you're overestimating what Marner would bring back in a trade. Kessel brought back Kapanen, Harrington and a 1st in value. I don't think Marner is bringing back much more than that, if at all.
I'd expect something like Smith, Pickering, Ilyin and a lottery protected 2025 1st for Marner if Marner would be coming to Pittsburgh.
Darren McCord
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- Dec 15, 2015
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Mitch Marner's a much better player than Phil Kessel was in his time....
I also don't think that what I've suggested (O'Connor, Yager & Graves) is all that different than what you've suggested (Smith, Pickering, Ilyin & a 1st).
The Penguins should probably also consider conserving their draft capital a bit, given that they've dipped into it in recent years.
If the Leafs can stomach dealing with Dubas, there's probably also a prospect or two within the Leafs organization that Dubas really likes -- Niemla, Akhtyamov, Hirvonen, Moldenhauer, Tverberg, Kokkonen, Voit, Villeneuve, etc... somebody who isn't neccessarily getting the focus that Cowan, Minten, Hildeby and Grebyonkin are getting that make it easier to digest losing guys like Yager & O'Connor.
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Empoleon8771
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I figure Marner wouldn't waive his NMC to come to Pittsburgh if he wasn't interested in re-signing there.
I mean, is he? Kessel carried the Leafs while Marner has been surrounded by an immense amount of talent his entire career.
I think the issue with the proposal you made is that O'Connor pretty much can't be moved if they're adding Marner (due to him being cheap) and Yager is a good step above Pickering and the 1st in terms of value.
I think Pickering and a 1st is a lot more valuable than Yager. With where Pittsburgh is at as an organization, it's very possible that a future 1st rounder could be top 10.
Sure, assume that the Penguins don't win the lottery, and end up sending the 2024 pick 14th OA to the Sharks... and therefore you send the 2025 pick to the Leafs with the same top 10 protection that the 2024 pick had.
What happens if the 2025 pick ends up beign top 10, then you give up the 2026 pick that is completely unprotected.
Yager's certainly a more exciting prospect given the 43% increase in his productivity since being drafted this year; but Pickering has seemingly made some pretty usbstantial strides in his game from a defensive standpoint (going from a team worst -29 to a upper-level +18). Not saying Pickering is better than Yager; simply that Pickering and a Pittsburgh 1st is probably a fair bit more valuable than Yager.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I think you're right that Pickering and a 1st is clearly more valuable than Yager, I just meant that Yager individually is a more valuable asset than either and I wouldn't be super comfortable moving him.
Lafleurs Guy
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Strongly disagree. Kessel was a top ten scorer and showed up in the playoffs. He was the piece that put the Pens over for two cups. Marner hasn’t demonstrated this ability at all.
Kessel when he was traded was coming off a 60 point season, had massive public speculation about his fitness level/ dedication spiraling into questions of his longevity, was a liability defensively, and had been labelled "a winger you cant win with". by many on this board
Lafleurs Guy
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But he always produced in the playoffs. Marner doesn’t. Marner is an absolutely terrible playoff performer with many of the same negatives Kessel had.
Empoleon8771
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I feel like Kessel and Marner are comparably talented players (relative to how they rank league-wide), but Kessel was a better play driver while Marner is a substantially better all-around player. That's why I think the 2015 Kessel trade is a good estimate for what Marner would bring back in a trade, I think it would be like 2 1sts (or a 1st and a 1st round prospect), another lesser prospect and some cap going back.
Like I said above, I think Smith, Pickering, Ilyin and a lottery protected 1st for Marner is really in line with the Kessel trade and is pretty realistic for what a Marner trade would end up looking like. Smith is an interesting guy for the Leafs to target due to his superb playoff track record, they can likely just slide him into Marner's role and see how Smith would do in the playoffs for them.
Like I said above, I think Smith, Pickering, Ilyin and a lottery protected 1st for Marner is really in line with the Kessel trade and is pretty realistic for what a Marner trade would end up looking like. Smith is an interesting guy for the Leafs to target due to his superb playoff track record, they can likely just slide him into Marner's role and see how Smith would do in the playoffs for them.
This.
Marner may not be the most phyiscal guy, but he's a wizard with the puck; has 509 points in 417 games over the last 6 years (100 point pace) -- including his 3 most recent seasons with 97 points in 72 games, 99 points in 80, and 85 points in 69 games.
He's also a solid and reliable defensive player -- much unlike Phil Kessel, and has a much higher "give a damn" level.
