Evaluating TDL rental acquisitions, part 2 (2019-2023)

[Big Daddy Cane]

Yeah, but the consistent theme here is that almost every team that wins the cup gets a rental. I believe the only reason St.Louis didn't is because they didn't actually believe they were a contender. You seem to be expecting teams to be getting a superstar that plays 10 years for them. Those players traditionally aren't available at the deadline. Most of these teams are picking up the best piece available and aren't paying much.

You keep giving teams a fail for trading a 1st, but like I said in my other post have you tracked what that 1st became? The teams drafting last in the round and that usually isn't a NHL player. I just don't see how giving a way a pick with like a 30% chance of become a fringe NHLer is a fail if it results in a cup win. A team would trade several years picks away for that chance.

The goal isn't to get some superstar player but to get that one extra piece to make you better than your opponent. You mention Vermette was scratched, but he was brought it mainly for vital faceoff situations and was 59% on the draw that playoffs and played 20 games and had 3 game winning goals. How is that not a massive impact? For Colorado Lehkonen had 8 goals and 14 points and 4 game winners, including one that sent to the finals. That's an entire quarter of the game winners to get to the cup, more than any other two other players on the team combined. Twice as many as Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen, and Lankeskog combined. And the guy is still with the team, often on the first line.

Some of these other trades were also phenomenal. Gaborik had 14 goals and 22 points for LAK. Next highest goals that year was 10 from Jeff Carter, coincidentally a deadline acquisition from two years prior that's still with the team...

Mind you, the genesis of keeping track of that is the reaction Carolina, the team I follow, gets yearly. Last year, they chased Meier, who had control, but didn’t get him. Instead of paying the price for a Bertuzzi, they pivoted to depth tweaks like Gosistbehere and Puljujarvi. Given the crippling injuries the team faced (season enders to Pacioretty and Svechnikov), winning two rounds was a successful outcome.

It’s been a modest approach, if term isn’t available; 2020 was the splash deadline as Trocheck and Skjei had multiple years left on their contracts. I wouldn’t be surprised if they look at a similar breakdown in meetings. That’s a pattern you see on that list.

With that being said, I actually agree with you about the value of a contender 1st round pick. It’s overrated in long-term significance to a buying team. Here’s all 1sts for rentals 2010-2019:

Player	Result	Player Taken in Draft Slot
Kovalchuk	Used in trade for Byfuglien	K. Hayes
Kaberle	Used to trade up for Biggs	Rakell
Gaustad	Used to trade up for Girgensons	Jankowski
Iginla	Retained	Klimchuk
Jagr	Retained	Dickinson
Miller + Ott	Used in trade for Kane + Bogosian	Roslovic
Franson + Santorelli	Used to trade down ultimately for Dermott, Bracco and Dzierkals	Konecny
Vermette	Retained	Merkley
Sekera	Retained	Gauthier
Ladd	Used to trade up for Stanley	Rubstov
Hanzal	Retained	Olivier-Joseph
Shattenkirk	Used in trade for B. Schenn	Frost
Eaves	Used to trade up for Oettinger	Jokiharju
Kane	Used in trade for Montour	Tracey
Nash	Used to trade up for Miller	Bernard-Docker
Stastny	Used to trade up for Bokk	Sandin
Hayes	Used in trade for Trouba	Heinola
Duchene	Retained	Thomson

The prospect outcomes roughly follow the percentages. Giving up the pick that could have been used on Konecny for Franson and Santorelli is brutal, but that’s the rare outcome.

The bulk of the big rental trades will go down as insignificant for both sides historically. I suggest not to freak out if a team acts aggressively or conservatively.