I understand context and you make some fair points but the bottom line is that for a team which realistically must build through the draft, the Ducks cannot afford to only count on success when drafting in the top 10. This is especially true for 2019 and later when it was obvious the team was in rebuild mode. It is possible...teams like Dallas and St. Louis are examples of what can be done.
2023-24 | | | | | | | | | | |
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Teams | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | | GF | GF rank | GA | GA rank |
Dallas | 74 | 46 | 19 | 9 | 101 | | 273 | 2nd | 220 | 11th |
St. Louis | 73 | 39 | 30 | 4 | 82 | | 213 | 25th | 224 | 14th |
Anaheim | 73 | 24 | 45 | 4 | 52 | | 179 | 30th | 263 | 30th |
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St. Louis
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Just looked at St. Louis' lineup, specifically their defense. They have only one player drafted between 2019 to the present out of the 10 blueliners that have logged time for the team today. Average age of Blues' blueliners is 29.2 years old.
Blues top-10 scorers that are age 21 or younger: 1 (LW Neighbors)
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Dallas
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The Stars' defense has only one player drafted between 2019 to the present, out of the 10 blueliners that have put on the uniform for the Stars. Average age of the Stars' blueliners is 29.5 years old.
Stars top-10 scorers that are age 21 or younger: 1 (C Johnston)
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Anaheim
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Anaheim has 12 blueliners that have suited up for the team this year. Five of those d-men were drafted from 2019 to the present. Two were drafted in the top-10 and three were drafted in the 2nd round. Average age of Ducks' blueliners is 24.9 years old.
Ducks top-10 scorers that are age 21 or younger: 3 (C McTavish, D Mintyuko, C Carlsson)
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It's all about the D, 'bout the D, 'bout the D
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Looking at the chart above comparing the three teams and info presented below it, it appears having a mature and talented defense is a significant determinant. Of course, if you have both a good defense and offense, then you'll skyrocket to the top like Dallas. A good defense and mediocre offense will have you on the playoff fringe like St. Louis. If you don't have either, then you're the Ducks.
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Last time the Ducks were on the playoff fringes
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The last time the Ducks were in playoff contention at the All-Star break was in 2021-22. Verbeek got rid of D Lindholm and D Manson. We were playing three rookies if one of Fowler, Lindholm, or Manson fell to injury in Drysdale, Benoit, and Mahura. We didn't have enough proper D-veterans to step up in that season, especially when our top-3 were hit with injuries starting at game 34 through game 60, at total of 27. Of those 27 games, all there were on the ice six times.
W & w/o FLM | | | | | | |
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Game set | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | pts % |
34 to 60 | 27 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 22 | 0.407 |
FLM = Fowler, Lindholm, Manson | | | | | | |
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w/FLM | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0.500 |
missing at least one of FLM | 21 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 0.381 |
Instead of rolling with three rookies on the D and trading for veteran RD, then it's possible the Ducks would have earned an additional 5 points minimum at .500 pts % play. At game 60, then the Ducks would have been tied for 3rd in the Pacific at 68 points with Vegas days before the TDL instead of 63 pts and 6th in the Pacific.
We know Murray resigned in early November. Verbeek came onto the scene in Feb, during All-star break or after game 48.
Anaheim was 3rd in the Pacific when Verbeek took over. The only time we added a veteran D to the roster was on March 8th when we picked up Sustr off of waivers and he didn't play until March 10th, game 60. Manson had missed 12 consecutive games, including all-star break, until the Ducks got another vet D to fill in for him in game 60. Date wise, it was from Jan 31 (game 48) to March 10 (game 60).
Today's Anaheim D is far too young, inexperienced, and not developed enough to push the team into playoff contention.
Currently, the Ducks have enough offensive top-end talent going forward, but they're mostly under age 23 and younger in C Zegras (23 yrs old), McTavish (21), Carlsson (19), and Cutter (20). Terry is older at age 26 and Colangelo (22) could be find, provided he's signed. That looks like a formidable top-6 for the near future.
We're hoping to improve our bottom-6 with C Gaucher, LW Myatovic, and others with the mass amount of prospects we've accumulated already or going to get with this year's draft as well.
Defensively, Verbeek might want to be rolling in two rookies full-time into the NHL in Luneau and Zellweger on top of having Minty and LaCombe going into their second full season in the NHL. If those youths don't take significant defensive steps forward, we'll continue to rummage at the bottom of the heap. Most teams won't give away young, defensively strong top-4D because they're difficult to come by. Which means we're gonna have to draft and develop one or more, if possible.