This is what you are working on Mr. Nill? Let’s focus on the NHL team please.
The legend!!
20 might be a bit young, but your point still stands. there's a handful of studies out there, they seem to vary, but point to 24-27 depending. here's a few.This is my chance to repeat the mantra that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old. The amount of players (all players, not just NHLers) who actually improve past that point is shockingly rare.
Like KCB said on the main boards, even if you were looking out for Damiani especially, he had just turned into such a pedestrian player that you'd never think he was challenging for the NHL at one point. When these fringe guys get put on the same team as actual prospects with real futures the difference becomes immediately clear.
There's a difference between a young player getting more experienced and earning more ice time and a player's actual technical skills improving. The stats analysis of this problem is going to have trouble separating the two.20 might be a bit young, but your point still stands. there's a handful of studies out there, they seem to vary, but point to 24-27 depending. here's a few.
Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance | Request PDF
Request PDF | Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance | Using NHL data for the 1997-1998 through 2011-2012 seasons, we examine the effect of age on scoring performance and plus-minus for NHL skaters... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGatewww.researchgate.net
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…hockey-graphs.com
experience is knowing when to employ which technical skill, ie, it's a skill all it's own.There's a difference between a young player getting more experienced and earning more ice time and a player's actual technical skills improving. The stats analysis of this problem is going to have trouble separating the two.
I'm talking specifically about when a player isn't actually improving, but ice time increases, such as in cases of injury, or coaches having a trial period before they trust a player within their system.experience is knowing when to employ which technical skill, ie, it's a skill all it's own.
it comes down to how you define from @piqued 's original post, 'that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old.' if experience improves them, are they not better?
i'm not sure it matters if you're improving in athleticism or just knowing what you should be doing, the end result is you're a better player. also fwiw, i can't believe that guy's tradition skills don't improve beyond 20. when you keep doing a thing for 1000s of hours, you're going to get better at it. i think you can make a case that some may deteriorate while others improve. say at some point, you can't skate as fast, but at the same time your ability to tip the puck has improved.
gotchya. in theory, that should be accounted for in the analysis as injury is spread out, and trial periods are both ubiquitous and short relative to a career.I'm talking specifically about when a player isn't actually improving, but ice time increases, such as in cases of injury, or coaches having a trial period before they trust a player within their system.
that's a fair distinction. those studies are focused on those that make the nhl, and of that subset of players, what is their typical peak age.I think we're talking about all hockey players and prospects as opposed to just NHLers.
There's 220+ guys drafted every year and maybe 50 have decent NHL careers, the other 75% probably fit into the category of "peaking at 20". As with any discussion on prospects, you're looking for the exception to the rule, most prospects fail to grow significantly.
I've been communicating poorly, because Ghost of Kyiv's idea was part of my reasoning and I just didn't mention it.gotchya. in theory, that should be accounted for in the analysis as injury is spread out, and trial periods are both ubiquitous and short relative to a career.
ahh, ok. so the example of production per 60 stays constant as ice time varies? yeah, i agree that can def be the case in some circumstances.I've been communicating poorly, because Ghost of Kyiv's idea was part of my reasoning and I just didn't mention it.
But anyway, those specifics were just examples. There can be cases where stats grow but the player doesn't. Damiani is an example of this but in the opposite, his stats shrunk but he didn't get worse. He stagnated for 2-3 years because of injury setback or whatever reasons and that's enough time to get left in the dust. He was PPG because the team was investing into him, and they were doing it more because of potential than ability, at least IMO.
Anyway my TLDR point is I that while I think what you were saying is valid and accurate, it doesn't necessarily disprove what Piqued was saying.