I know this has been discussed a million times but I figure it's the topic at hand so maybe we can discuss it anyway.
If Karlsson's goal was to put as much money in the bank as possible, mission accomplished.
If Karlsson's goal was to go to a competitive team, mission failed spectacularly.
If it's true that Ottawa had offered him $10M AAV, I bet there's a part of him that regrets how things have played out. He left a team where he was a hero/god to end up on a basement dweller, underperforming and playing out an anchor of a contract that can't be traded without some extremely creative accounting.
His story should be a cautionary tale to every athlete who doesn't want to just play out the string, collecting a paycheck on a bottom feeder, living out the best years of your career and life without inspiration.
Again, if the goal was money, then none of what I said matters. But I genuinely don't believe there's many athletes out there in it for just the money. To be that good, you need to have a competitive urge inside of you that supercedes almost everything else. And when you have that kind of natural competitiveness, I would find it hard to believe that you're only in it for a paycheck. But I could be wrong about that.
At the time of the trade, the Sharks previous 3 seasons were:
17/18 - 100pts + 2nd round
16/17 - 99pts + 1st round
15/16 - 98pts + SCF
The year he got there, they finished with 101 points and made it to WCF.
At the time, nobody predicted that San Jose would bottom out that quickly. Should they have? Probably. If you looked closer at their roster construction and salary structure, the signs were there. But they had been one of the most consistent franchises over the previous 10 years, had one of the richest owners in the NHL, and spent to the cap every year.
Erik Karlsson and his agent believed that they were getting money AND a chance to compete for the cup every year.
It didn't work out that way, but that's pro sports. It happens in every league. Nobody predicted the Rams to be one of the worst teams in the NFL the year after winning the Superbowl. But that's where they are. I bet some free-agents are kicking themselves.
The reality is, there is no franchise that guarantees winning. So regardless of where a player goes, there's huge risk when signing an 8 year contract. That's AGES in sports. Anything could happen in that span.
But back in 17/18, nobody would have thought Ottawa would be a better place to win compared to San Jose. And even with San Jose becoming a basement dweller, they still would have been right. We're also a basement dweller, and there are no objective observers who think we're even close to competing, either.
Does Karlsson regret leaving today? Maybe. If he knew the team would be up for sale so (relatively) quickly after his departure, he might have re-considered. But back then, everybody expected Melnyk to remain the owner for the forseeable future. And regardless of who anyone thinks was in the right or wrong, that relationship was irreparable.