I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.
There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.
If they get average or better goaltending I think they'll be in the playoffs, but if they get anything like the goaltending they got last year they are in for a tough season. I think they also need to hope that last year was a fluke in terms of injuries, though I'm not really convinced it was especially when it comes to Carlson and Backstrom.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, like Washington, also had some really bad goaltending last season. If they get average goaltending they should be in the playoffs as well. I have a very hard time seeing the Islanders missing the playoffs, and the Hurricanes just finished 3rd in the NHL in standings points so despite a poor offseason from them they are certainly going to be in playoff contention. And the Rangers could still surprise despite shooting themselves in the foot this offseason. And heck, New Jersey should be significantly better this season with the additions of Hamilton and Tatar and growth from Hughes and Hischier. Even if it's not enough to really get NJ into the playoff picture it'll be fewer easy points for Washington which they racked up last year.
I think it's entirely reasonable to have the C*pitals on the outside looking in, especially when it's only by 3 points like the model above is predicting. Looking at the other divisions his projections also seem to make a lot of sense, so I have a hard time saying he is way off with Washington.