Why would they give up this year's pick? It's currently 7, could be 5-9 going into the lottery. Boston's at best will be 25. I would be shocked if Ottawa's future 1sts are even better than 7, or 11 if they win both remaining games and rise in the standings and then lose the draft and get pushed back further. I think Ottawa would be too. Keep this pick and forfeit a later one that's expected to be further down in the draft.
I'll agree that Ottawa has a really tough decision to make here. No matter what they decide, it could end up hurting them big time.
On the one hand, you're absolutely correct that this might be as high as they pick in the next 3 years.
The question is why they're picking as low as they are.
I think a lot of people would agree that it's a culture problem more than a talent issue. IF management agree's(which I think they do), that isn't a problem that draft picks are going to fix. And further to that; if management agree's, do they really think they can change that within 3 years to get into the PO hunt. Because if they don't think they can fix it that quickly, their Draft position isn't going to improve(and will probably get worse as Giroux ages and their FA's start walking).
It's a complete gamble on their part.
If they give it up this year; they might lose out on the last top 10 pick their going to see for a while, but they'll have the Boston pick to at least grab something.
If they wait, they might end up forfeiting a top 10 pick and go a year without a first round pick at all
And if they wait until '26 they won't have a 2nd round pick either(Chychrun trade) which could really end up hurting them.
It's incredibly risky any way they choose.
If it's me, I only defer if it's in the top 5. Just rip the bandaid off and get it over with.