Prospect Info: Blues 2023-2024 Prospect Thread

[Davimir Tarablad]

Damn near have a full team of lefties lol

Back to the Hitch era where Backes and Oshie were the only guys in the top 9 that were righties.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Rattie was a much better junior player than Bolduc. Bolduc comes close to matching Rattie’s goal production in the AHL this year and I’ll Venmo you $20.

Production is most certainly not meaningless for a guy that hopes to become a top six forward. Guys who go on to become top six forwards typically produce pretty well in their first AHL season. There are exceptions, of course, but forwards typically peak in production around 23. If he can’t produce in the AHL at 20, there’s not a ton of hope that he’ll suddenly figure it out and become an NHL scorer.

EDIT TO ADD: The cut off for top six forward this year(with at least 25 games played) was .5 points per game(I took 32 teams times six forwards to get this rough estimate. Obviously some teams have more than six above this threshold, some less, but it’s a rough estimate.)

Guys on that number:

Arthur Kaliyev-31 points in 40 AHL games at 20 years old.

Wyatt Johnston-This coming season will be his 20 year old season. He’s a freak.

Anthony Cirelli-37 in 51 AHL games at 20.

Drouin-32 in 70 NHL games at 20, Only a brief, but productive, stint in the AHL.

Ryan Strome-49 points in 37 AHL games at 20. Wow. Way better than I would’ve guessed.

Frank Vatrano-36 goals, 19 assists in 36 AHL games at 20. Again, would not have guessed he was that productive.

Kent Johnson-40 points in 79 NHL games at 20. He’s a stud.

Eeli Tolvanen-36 points in 63 AHL games at 20. Lowest production of the group. I’d be thrilled with that season from Bolduc.

Mike Hoffman-49 points in 76 AHL games at 20. I think Hoffman is a pretty good comp for Bolduc if he makes it as a top six guy.

Again, there are probably outliers(like Tage who was utterly clueless until his age 24 season) but it’s far more common for guys who become scoring forwards to produce right away in the AHL. Production is not at all meaningless.

Your first post was stating that Bolduc has 0 chance to be anywhere close to ppg, which is what Kyrou was close to. I think it's a silly statement that he has 0 chance to be close to that. I also said that I don't really care about AHL production, and I guess I'll elaborate more on that, since a list of random players with stats that you view as impressive doesn't really mean anything, especially if the minimum for what you view has good is 41+ points. If Bolduc has a 20+20 season, I doubt you'd say he had a good season and you'd point to your 1st comment about how he was no where near Kyrou, and not this post.

For why I don't think the stats matter, rookie production or any production at the A really serves no or very little indication of their success at the NHL level. You could have someone like Perunovich immediately light it up, and while injuries have limited his opportunities at the NHL level, because of the difference in the games, he likely won't have the opportunity to be nearly as dynamic at the NHL level as in the minors.

You also have someone like Alexandrov who goes 30 in 67 as a rookie and near ppg in his 2nd season, but is that indicative of anything that is translatable to the NHL level? Those that watched him a lot his rookie season, saw someone that had a NHL future, but his breakout this past season doesn't mean he'll have a higher offensive potential at the NHL level, it just means he's figured the AHL out.

I really don't care what Bolduc's actual production is. We obviously don't want it to be terrible, but whether it's good or bad his rookie year, it doesn't really mean much, but people are acting like it's a make or break season. Or people are acting like a meaningless prospect camp is a reason why he's a complete bust. If he has good production at the A, it means nothing if the actual parts of his game that are needed for the NHL haven't shown improvement. And if his production isn't high, because the coaches want him hyper focusing on other areas to become more NHL ready, I'm not going to say he's a bust.

 

[Pazucha]

Looks like tomorrow scrimmage will be live on youtube.

 

[ChuckLefley]

About Bolduc, he didn't have much time to prepare for the development camp. On June 21, he had a party with the cups in his hometown and he mentioned he was just back from Jamaica and had not been back in the gym or on the ice since the Memorial Cup final on June 4.

I read that Buffalo decided not to have his Quebec temmate Komarov for their development camp and NCAA champion Devon Levi because of how late their seasons ended.

What?!?! Northeastern didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. They even lost their only Hockey East tournament game. Levi actually went to Buffalo and played 7 games for the Sabres after his college career ended on March 11.

 

[542365]

Your first post was stating that Bolduc has 0 chance to be anywhere close to ppg, which is what Kyrou was close to. I think it's a silly statement that he has 0 chance to be close to that. I also said that I don't really care about AHL production, and I guess I'll elaborate more on that, since a list of random players with stats that you view as impressive doesn't really mean anything, especially if the minimum for what you view has good is 41+ points. If Bolduc has a 20+20 season, I doubt you'd say he had a good season and you'd point to your 1st comment about how he was no where near Kyrou, and not this post.

For why I don't think the stats matter, rookie production or any production at the A really serves no or very little indication of their success at the NHL level. You could have someone like Perunovich immediately light it up, and while injuries have limited his opportunities at the NHL level, because of the difference in the games, he likely won't have the opportunity to be nearly as dynamic at the NHL level as in the minors.

You also have someone like Alexandrov who goes 30 in 67 as a rookie and near ppg in his 2nd season, but is that indicative of anything that is translatable to the NHL level? Those that watched him a lot his rookie season, saw someone that had a NHL future, but his breakout this past season doesn't mean he'll have a higher offensive potential at the NHL level, it just means he's figured the AHL out.

I really don't care what Bolduc's actual production is. We obviously don't want it to be terrible, but whether it's good or bad his rookie year, it doesn't really mean much, but people are acting like it's a make or break season. Or people are acting like a meaningless prospect camp is a reason why he's a complete bust. If he has good production at the A, it means nothing if the actual parts of his game that are needed for the NHL haven't shown improvement. And if his production isn't high, because the coaches want him hyper focusing on other areas to become more NHL ready, I'm not going to say he's a bust.

They aren’t random players, they’re the least productive top six forwards in the NHL, something we hope Bolduc becomes. It clearly shows that if you’re going to be a top sixer, you’re probably going to be productive in the AHL right away.

Production in the A, or rather lack of production, is absolutely indicative of future success. There are guys who can score in the A, but not in the NHL, but there aren’t any who can’t score in the AHL, but can in the NHL. If he can’t figure out the A, he’s not going to figure out the big league. This is especially true for forwards. He’s likely about 3 years away from his absolute peak as a player. Players who are going to be impactful in the league have typically shown that at this stage in their career, but there are certainly outliers, and I hope he is one because he’s shown virtually nothing at any stage outside of the Q.

If Bolduc goes 20+20 in the AHL this year I’d be thrilled. That’d be a huge step in the right direction and would show that he might have an NHL future, because production for forwards absolutely does matter no matter how badly you want to build in an excuse for him. I was just taking an issue with someone comparing Bolduc to Kyrou as if they’re remotely similar level players at 20, which just isn’t the case.

 

[DatDude44]

You know your right, not about me making things up, but about Burns not skating. I was typing up notes in my phone during the camp and I believe I wrote notes about another player under Burns and didn't catch it when I transcribed them here. Not a 100% who those notes were about, I suspect Fischer since his notes are empty but not really sure so I will just remove my comments about Burns for now.

I was gonna say that sounded a lot like Fischer lol

 

[bleedblue1223]

They are a group of players you selected to fit your criteria, but since you opened your criteria from initially 0 chance at nearly ppg to at least a 41 point pace, I'm not really going to focus on it. If Bolduc scored at a 41 point pace, I think we'd all consider that somewhat disappointing, but I suppose your argument would suggest he's still on track for a top 6 role, which basically supports my point, that a disappointing season production wise, doesn't have that much of an impact on his NHL future.

If you'd be thrilled with a 20+20 season, then lets just leave it at that. I'm not sure if you view that as an impressive total for that age of a player or have that low of expectations for Bolduc, but either way, lets just leave it there.

 

[542365]

We talk about production, but the Blues specifically told Bolduc to work on his two-way game and deferring a bit more to his teammates. It's pretty obvious that he did that better this year with 16 more assists but still hitting 50 goals. I won't lie to you and say it's no big deal that Bolduc isn't impressing right now, but I'm not super concerned with it either. If he comes into camp and competes OR if he is a decent two-way player and puts up 0.5+ points per game in the AHL, then that's fine with me. Nic Petan and Sven Bartschi both had really productive careers in the WHL with Rattie, but none of those guys could ever establish themselves as NHL players. Bjorkstrand also played on that team and had success in back to back years at over 100 points in those seasons, but played a different style than those guys. He scored at 0.57 points per game in the AHL, broke out in the playoffs, had another season in the A with 0.7 points per game, but didn't become a full time NHL player till his age 22-23 season. Obviously with being the 17th pick you'd expect Bolduc to get here quicker, but development isn't linear and that doesn't mean that's a bad thing. Kyrou didn't look like he was going to pan out until he did. Give the dude some time.

Kyrou looked like he was going to pan out from his D+1 season. And then he went on and actually made his WJC team and was the leading scorer on that team, another good indication of future success. It’s just total fiction to say he didn’t look like he was going to pan out.

I mentioned several times that there were outliers and then you choose an outlier to bring up. Again, I know they exist, but the vast majority of NHL top six forwards in the NHL showed themselves to be productive by their age 20 season, which is this season for Zach. Many of them also had to work on developing their two way game, and still found a way to produce.

 

[Blueston]

Kyrou looked like he was going to pan out from his D+1 season. And then he went on and actually made his WJC team and was the leading scorer on that team, another good indication of future success. It’s just total fiction to say he didn’t look like he was going to pan out.

I mentioned several times that there were outliers and then you choose an outlier to bring up. Again, I know they exist, but the vast majority of NHL top six forwards in the NHL showed themselves to be productive by their age 20 season, which is this season for Zach. Many of them also had to work on developing their two way game, and still found a way to produce.

Yeah, it’s not about whether he puts up 1 ppg in the a. He is working on other things. But if he isn’t scoring at roughly .5ppg at least with his talent and pedigree, that would be cause for concern.

 

[542365]

They are a group of players you selected to fit your criteria, but since you opened your criteria from initially 0 chance at nearly ppg to at least a 41 point pace, I'm not really going to focus on it. If Bolduc scored at a 41 point pace, I think we'd all consider that somewhat disappointing, but I suppose your argument would suggest he's still on track for a top 6 role, which basically supports my point, that a disappointing season production wise, doesn't have that much of an impact on his NHL future.

If you'd be thrilled with a 20+20 season, then lets just leave it at that. I'm not sure if you view that as an impressive total for that age of a player or have that low of expectations for Bolduc, but either way, lets just leave it there.

The 41 point pace is for last year’s NHL top six forwards. They weren’t picked at random to fit any criteria, they were picked because they were the absolute minimum production in the NHL one needs to achieve to be considered a top six forward. I then went and looked at those players’ 20 year old AHL season and found that, unsurprisingly, they were all productive at that age. So if Bolduc was to put up 20+20 in the AHL this year, we should be happy because he’d fit about in the middle of that group, showing that he can score at the professional level and very well might have a top six NHL future. That’d be a very good season for him, especially if he’s made the improvements away from the puck that the coaches are looking for out of him. Are you honestly expecting more than 20+20 from Bolduc this year? That seems pretty unreasonable to me at this stage in his career. He’s a guy we’re just hoping has an NHL future, not some blue chip top five pick or something. That’s why it was so impressive when Kyrou put up nearly point per game at 20 in the AHL. It’s really difficult to do.

I don’t know what I did to cause this to make it look like you’re quoting yourself with a rebuttal. I’ve only been here a decade and still don’t know how this place works.

 

[SergeConstantin74]

What?!?! Northeastern didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. They even lost their only Hockey East tournament game. Levi actually went to Buffalo and played 7 games for the Sabres after his college career ended on March 11.

My bad, he won gold with Canada at the World Championships. He didn’t play much though maybe I should have left him out of what I was saying.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The 41 point pace is for last year’s NHL top six forwards. They weren’t picked at random to fit any criteria, they were picked because they were the absolute minimum production in the NHL one needs to achieve to be considered a top six forward. I then went and looked at those players’ 20 year old AHL season and found that, unsurprisingly, they were all productive at that age. So if Bolduc was to put up 20+20 in the AHL this year, we should be happy because he’d fit about in the middle of that group, showing that he can score at the professional level and very well might have a top six NHL future. That’d be a very good season for him, especially if he’s made the improvements away from the puck that the coaches are looking for out of him. Are you honestly expecting more than 20+20 from Bolduc this year? That seems pretty unreasonable to me at this stage in his career. He’s a guy we’re just hoping has an NHL future, not some blue chip top five pick or something. That’s why it was so impressive when Kyrou put up nearly point per game at 20 in the AHL. It’s really difficult to do.

My expectation is a 50-55ish type point year, I think that would be a solid year, and I think he's certainly capable of more. A lot will depend on what his role is and who he plays with.

I could see something like a 40 type point pace in the first 40 or so games, and a 60+ point pace in the 2nd half. This would be similar to someone like Schwartz, who had 4 points in his first 12 games, and 15 in his next 21. My expectation is simply that he shows improvement as he adjusts to a pro game, and for his talent to show through, because he will argubaly be the most naturally talented player on the team. That's why the production doesn't really matter to me, it's about the process, his improvement.

Similar to Rattie, there is no doubting their ability to put the puck in the net. Rattie in his D+2 was 1st in WHL in ppg and Bolduc was 3rd in QMJHL. Bolduc's overall play was always ahead of Rattie though. Those that say Bolduc floats, really forgets Rattie. You can have a game based around finding soft spots in the NHL, but that was the only part to Rattie's game, and that won't work.

What are your expectations for him, how do you view him amongst our prospects? Alexandrov scored 30 points in 67 games? Are those your expectations for him? I'm just sort of confused if you are just very low on Bolduc and that's why your expectations for a good season are that low for him, or if you view those numbers as more impressive than I do.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And not related to anyone specifically, I hate all the Kyrou talk, it's probably worse than Pietrangelo or Krug with how divisive he is now. In terms of him as a prospect, he was great from the start. I think some had some early wishing that we took DeBrincat or Girard, but I think we made the right pick. He had a big D+1 season, and his rookie year in the AHL was big as well. In his NHL cup of coffee, it wasn't great, but you could tell there was raw potential there. His knock was the playoffs, and so far that has sort of continued. But, as a prospect, there was never really any major red flags through his development.

For Bolduc, I think we kind of fixate on those training camps too much. If we are talking about just his on-ice performance for Quebec, I don't think we should be that concerned about his future, I see more positive progress than I see red flags. If he has the same exact mentality this camp, then I'll worry more like we should've for Kostin, but I also expect a different mentality from him too. In prior years, it's probably easy to enjoy the moment expecting to be sent back to juniors regardless, and this season, he's going into it knowing he's a pro regardless if he makes the big club or not.

I also think that's an impact on the prospect camps. My view on the prospect camps, it's really an opportunity for the new propsects to get familiar with the organization, and for the new and fringe guys to start to make a name for themselves. The guys that have been around awhile or already have made that name for themselves, probably aren't going 100% in these things. Coaches know this too, drafted prospects have just been traveling like crazy and went through the draft, and for everyone, who knows where they are on their summer training plans, some might still be in recovery mode and not started getting back in the swing of things.

 

[Blanick]

Just got here. Dean out on the ice today

 

[Linkens Mastery]

While I don't want to trade him just to trade him. Bolduc should be on the table to aquire an upgrade on defense if a deal surfaces. I think he is the best prospect we have that I would consider trading. Snuggerud and Dvorsky are our only untouchables imho.

 

[542365]

My expectation is a 50-55ish type point year, I think that would be a solid year, and I think he's certainly capable of more. A lot will depend on what his role is and who he plays with.

I could see something like a 40 type point pace in the first 40 or so games, and a 60+ point pace in the 2nd half. This would be similar to someone like Schwartz, who had 4 points in his first 12 games, and 15 in his next 21. My expectation is simply that he shows improvement as he adjusts to a pro game, and for his talent to show through, because he will argubaly be the most naturally talented player on the team. That's why the production doesn't really matter to me, it's about the process, his improvement.

Similar to Rattie, there is no doubting their ability to put the puck in the net. Rattie in his D+2 was 1st in WHL in ppg and Bolduc was 3rd in QMJHL. Bolduc's overall play was always ahead of Rattie though. Those that say Bolduc floats, really forgets Rattie. You can have a game based around finding soft spots in the NHL, but that was the only part to Rattie's game, and that won't work.

What are your expectations for him, how do you view him amongst our prospects? Alexandrov scored 30 points in 67 games? Are those your expectations for him? I'm just sort of confused if you are just very low on Bolduc and that's why your expectations for a good season are that low for him, or if you view those numbers as more impressive than I do.

I was thinking 20+20 over an AHL season of 72 games rather than the 82 that the NHL plays. That’d be about 46 points over 82 games. Barbashev had similar numbers in the Q and put up a 35 point pace his first AHL season, but that was his D+2 season. At Zach’s age he put up a 66 point pace, but he already had a year under his belt in the A, so not necessarily a fair comparison. Morgan Frost had about a 60ish point pace his first year in the AHL and was similarly productive in junior. Jaskin 57, Yamamoto 55, Brink 56, Poehling about 70 in his split AHL seasons at various ages. Kupari 58(I’m just quickly searching younger players who have had varying degrees of success in theNHL, no real method here.)

I guess I should have higher expectations for him. I would still be relatively pleased with 20+20 though. I’ve just never really seen him stand out in any environment except the Q regular season. I think back to Thomas, Kyrou, Fabbri, Blais etc. in their preseason games as a junior player and remember how obvious their skill was and how clear it was that they could develop into a good player. I don’t recall a single standout moment from Bolduc in the preseason. I remember seeing him score a goal in the prospect scrimmage last year, but it was finishing off a nice play from someone else.

I don’t know. It’s not just his game at prospect camps that lowers my expectations. It’s the not making the World Junior team and then whining about it, his substantially lower production in the Q playoffs versus his regular season numbers, how quickly he was sent back in camp last year etc. It’s just a bunch of little things that by themselves aren’t too concerning, but all added up bring up a bit of a red flag. I’d love if I was wrong. He is certainly very talented. I’m just not sure if he’s Ty Rattie level whose game just wasn’t quite good enough for the NHL, or Kyrou/Thomas level who have warts in their game but you put up with it because they can put the puck in the net.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I was thinking 20+20 over an AHL season of 72 games rather than the 82 that the NHL plays. That’d be about 46 points over 82 games. Barbashev had similar numbers in the Q and put up a 35 point pace his first AHL season, but that was his D+2 season. At Zach’s age he put up a 66 point pace, but he already had a year under his belt in the A, so not necessarily a fair comparison. Morgan Frost had about a 60ish point pace his first year in the AHL and was similarly productive in junior. Jaskin 57, Yamamoto 55, Brink 56, Poehling about 70 in his split AHL seasons at various ages. Kupari 58(I’m just quickly searching younger players who have had varying degrees of success in theNHL, no real method here.)

I guess I should have higher expectations for him. I would still be relatively pleased with 20+20 though. I’ve just never really seen him stand out in any environment except the Q regular season. I think back to Thomas, Kyrou, Fabbri, Blais etc. in their preseason games as a junior player and remember how obvious their skill was and how clear it was that they could develop into a good player. I don’t recall a single standout moment from Bolduc in the preseason. I remember seeing him score a goal in the prospect scrimmage last year, but it was finishing off a nice play from someone else.

I don’t know. It’s not just his game at prospect camps that lowers my expectations. It’s the not making the World Junior team and then whining about it, his substantially lower production in the Q playoffs versus his regular season numbers, how quickly he was sent back in camp last year etc. It’s just a bunch of little things that by themselves aren’t too concerning, but all added up bring up a bit of a red flag. I’d love if I was wrong. He is certainly very talented. I’m just not sure if he’s Ty Rattie level whose game just wasn’t quite good enough for the NHL, or Kyrou/Thomas level who have warts in their game but you put up with it because they can put the puck in the net.

Fair enough. I agree he's not a perfect prospect, and if we make a trade moving a higher end prospect, he'd be the one I'd consider.

 

[Blanick]

No Snuggerud on the ice with group two. No Malmstrom either. Can't remember if he was there yesterday either.

 

[542365]

Fair enough. I agree he's not a perfect prospect, and if we make a trade moving a higher end prospect, he'd be the one I'd consider.

Yeah, I don’t want to run him out of town before he’s given a chance to prove what he’s got as a professional, but I wouldn’t let him be the holdup in acquiring a sizable defensive upgrade. Ideally I’d love to do a prospect for prosoect swap with a similar quality right shot Dman(like Scott Morrow from Carolina or Cuelemans from Columbus) but those are pretty rare.

 

[DatDude44]

Buchinger looked filthy today

 

[Blanick]

Buchinger looked filthy today

Might have been my favorite player on the ice today so far. His skating is effortless.

 

[542365]

If Buchinger makes the team while Buchnevich is still here, what’s his nickname?

 

[ChuckLefley]

No Snuggerud on the ice with group two. No Malmstrom either. Can't remember if he was there yesterday either.

Malmstrom hasn’t been on the ice at all. Dean got on the ice but wasn’t comfortable with multiple pairs of skates and only did one and a half drills.

Dickinson still looking great.

 

[STL fan in MN]

If Buchinger makes the team while Buchnevich is still here, what’s his nickname?

Bushy

Pretty sure the first syllable in his name is pronounced like Bush. Has a natural future as a brand ambassador for Busch beer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dickinson still looking great.

That's good to hear.