So, this past weekend, I was working on an article for a project that I'm working on with some folks RE:Flames, that essentially took that random Athletic "What it takes to build a cup winner" and actually dissected it to some bare numbers/positions for the top 5 priority positions/requirements for Stanley Cup winners.
It took a look at how the last 5 cup winning franchises as well as Tampa (Who will very likely be the 6th) put together a cup winning team in terms of 5 key component. What I did was eliminate the key factors like "Playoff Hero", essentially, there's no tangible way to account for someone who shows up big for a cup team, as there have been 1st line players through 13th forwards that have played that hero role.
What it broke it down to was five major factors:
1) An elite 1 Centre, who does not require an elite winger.
2) Either an elite 2C (A guy who'd be playing 1C on half the teams in the league) OR a an offensive minded 2C (someone who normally dominates possession, but still produces at a high level).
3) An elite winger. Preferably playing on the second line away from the first line centre. It elevates the 2C into almost a 1B type role. Someone who's goal forward during a playoff run will be +50% 5v5, and even better +60.
4) A Minute eating #1D that controls play heavily when they're on the ice (so 52+% to 60 % CF/SCF/GF)
5) A goalie that has the ability to be elite for a 20 game stretch. Does not require an all-world goalie.
When you look at the Flames, you essentially have 2.5 checks out of 5.
You don't have an elite centre. Monahan isn't that guy. Bennett isn't that guy. Lindholm fits more in that high-end 2C described above.
You have a very good 2C in Mikael Backlund, and in effect, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm.
You have the luxury of having 2 all-star wingers on this team, in Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau
You sort of have that 1D. You had in Gio a year ago, but this past season was regression, and in the playoffs this regressed further. He could find that level again, but you're also counting on it.
You don't have a goalie that could give you that elite level goaltending. Rittich has only shown it in very small patches, with some very ugly patches provided as well.
When you circle back to it, trading Gaudreau is a luxury for Calgary, BUT it has to resolve one of the other key ingredients. If you trade Johnny for a winger and some picks, this team is further behind today than it was yesterday. If you trade Johnny for a legitimate 1D, then you've checked a box. If you trade Johnny in a package to get a 1C that won't need him to produce (but will still play with the likes of Lindholm/Dube/Mangi/Bennett, i.e not pure scrubs) then you check a box and are closer.
The reality the Flames don't have a cup potential roster looking at modern NHL history, without making a key addition. If either of the two boxes in terms of 1C or 1D can be checked in a Gaudreau trade, then you do it.... if not, you're better off trying to land a goalie who can check the fifth box and hope Gio regains form... so that you can try to pseudo check the first requirement using Gaudreau/Some Combination of centres.