I am wondering what the probability of us qualifying for the playoffs is if we run the table.
Let's fill in the standings assuming we go 5-0 (beating DET, WSH in regulation), and hold the RW over everybody. Not including NJD because if we win out they cannot pass us.
BUF: 82 GP, 89 points
PHI: 77 GP, 83 points
NYI: 76 GP, 83 points
DET: 77 GP, 82 points
WSH: 77 GP, 82 points
PIT: 76 GP, 81 points
To ensure teams finish on 89 or less:
NYI: 3-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 3-2 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 4-2 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)
- We need the Detroit outcome to happen, and 3/4 of the Metro outcomes to happen.
- Here are the games that teams play each other:WSH vs PHI, WSH vs DET, DET vs PIT, NYI vs PIT. Ideally, from the inter-team games, everything ends in regulation, and team aren't winning multiple (ex. it's better if DET goes 1-1, WSH goes 1-1, etc.).
It is very tough to put a number on this, but I don't think the outcomes above are so unrealistic, especially considering we only need 3/4 of the Metro ones to happen. I'd put it around 50-60% based on just a gut feeling..we are not asking for much especially from DET/WSH/PIT.
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Now if we do the exact same exercise, but put our record at 4-1 (this is much more do-able since we are likely losing to one of Dallas or Florida or Tampa) - we still beat DET, WSH in regulation and hold the tie-breaker:
BUF: 82 GP, 87 points
NYI: 2-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 2-3 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 3-3 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)
(also NJD has to drop at least one point)
Again none of those would be individually shocking but it's just asking a lot for 4/5 of those outcomes to happen. This is probably ~ 5%, again just a total guess.
But bottom line, if we can win out, I think it's about a coinflip or better that we get in.