Speculation: 2023-24 Roster Thread

[Ducks DVM]

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

 

[DavidBL]

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

I think we're all just hoping he just didn't mention it.

 

[JAHV]

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

The history of GMs saying things and then doing other things is long and distinguished. Sometimes, the things they say ("the coach's job is safe") are directly and immediately contradicted by the things they do (like when the coach gets fired a week later).

And I'm not even necessarily accusing Verbeek of being disingenuous. It's possible he's lying, or obfuscating, or being coy. But it's also possible that he said what he meant at the time, but then in the offseason changes his mind or comes to a different conclusion about what the team needs.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

I think we're all just hoping he just didn't mention it.

I mean if the opportunity presents itself.. I'm sure he will jump on it..

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The history of GMs saying things and then doing other things is long and distinguished. Sometimes, the things they say ("the coach's job is safe") are directly and immediately contradicted by the things they do (like when the coach gets fired a week later).

And I'm not even necessarily accusing Verbeek of being disingenuous. It's possible he's lying, or obfuscating, or being coy. But it's also possible that he said what he meant at the time, but then in the offseason changes his mind or comes to a different conclusion about what the team needs.

You also need to take into account the past actions Verbeek has taken.

This year, Verbeek introduced four first time rookies to the NHL, bypassing the AHL, in C Carlsson, LD LaCombe, LD Mintyukov, and RD Luneau. IMO, Verbeek was trying to speed up the reset rebuild. The former three played all season and Verbeek is expecting improvements from all three next season. Luneau has more factors attached to him such as Verbeek robbed him from the Q to physically build up Luneau and traded away RD Drysdale because of the promise Luneau showed.

We have, at most, two years left of Fowler and Gudas. If Luneau spends the year in the AHL next year, then he doesn't get the full season experience at the NHL level. It leaves one full year of NHL experience for Luneau as a rookie before the two vets depart. That doesn't make sense with this whole "speeding up the reset rebuild" process Verbeek initiated this season to want to slow down now.

 

[Reveille1984]

I feel like if Verbeek really wanted to "speed up" the rebuild he would be acquiring some help on D, not having all of Minty/Zell/Luneau/LaCombe be regulars in the lineup. Those guys are probably at least 3-4 years away on average from becoming actual competent, consistent defensemen, and the chance of all of them even becoming that is pretty low. That's just the nature of the development curve.

I'm not necessarily in favor of doing things one way or the other, but let's call a spade a spade. This d-core is a long ways away from getting us out of rebuild mode.

 

[robbieboy3686]

He's gotten stronger and has made himself a bit tougher to play against. Will be cheap to sign and therefore a no brainer to bring him back as depth IMO

Vaak>lacombe give me reliable over mistake a plenty kid jaxxon

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

He didn’t want cam to play any worse

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

As long as Verbeek is committed to playing Luneau, Minty, and Z2 in the NHL next year I don't see the logic of signing a mid pair D for 5-6 years at $5M-$6M AAV. What we really lack is anybody truly capable of playing top pair D. Sure you can jettison any of Vaaks, Lindtstrom, LaCombe, but when you add in Folwer and Gudas for two more years we still have a serious logjam of guys competing for the 3-6 slots with two unlucky guys being fed to the wolves every night on the top pair.

If we were prioritizing winning next year then sure a sold mid pair guy improves the D. But that doesn't appear to be the path Verbeek is telling us he is on. Unless we can sign/trade a legit top pair guy I see no logic in acquiring anything less on D.

And, all of this goes double if we draft a top D prospect this summer.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I mean if the opportunity presents itself.. I'm sure he will jump on it..

Obviously there will be defensemen available. The problem (if you want to call it that) is that we have lots of kids who apparently are going to get jobs on the blue line. Minty, Zellweger, LaCombe all seem destined for regular minutes next year, along with Fowler, Gudas, and probably Vaaks and even Luneau. We also have Hinds and Helleson who will need at least cups of coffee, and guys like Dionicio, Smith and Warren pushing from below.

The upshot is, the opportunity to add to the defense WILL present itself, but it kinda seems like that's beside the point.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

I think goals can/should change.

We def need a top 6 RW…. I think our bottom 6 actually kinda gets better with the addition of gauthier + rw.

Zegras mctavish _____
Gauthier carlsson terry
Killorn strome Vatrano
Johnston Lundy leason
- can have nesterenko/regenda/colangelo play for Johnston most nights.

Defense is still questionable fit
Mintyukov zellweger luneau fowler are all kinda top4 puck movers.
Gudas is a shutdown guy
Lacombe right now kinda a utility guy to move around the line up (but I think he can be top 4 puckmover also)
Decisions to make about Vaaks, lidstrom , lagesson

But regardless we have too many guys that are more puck mover/offense guys. I think he’ll have to look at defense, cause some of those pairing options are a bit questionable

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

I think goals can/should change.

We def need a top 6 RW…. I think our bottom 6 actually kinda gets better with the addition of gauthier + rw.

Zegras mctavish _____
Gauthier carlsson terry
Killorn strome Vatrano
Johnston Lundy leason
- can have nesterenko/regenda/colangelo play for Johnston most nights.

Defense is still questionable fit
Mintyukov zellweger luneau fowler are all kinda top4 puck movers.
Gudas is a shutdown guy
Lacombe right now kinda a utility guy to move around the line up (but I think he can be top 4 puckmover also)
Decisions to make about Vaaks, lidstrom , lagesson

But regardless we have too many guys that are more puck mover/offense guys. I think he’ll have to look at defense, cause some of those pairing options are a bit questionable

The perfect RW would be Stamkos.. He can play center too if needed

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The perfect RW would be Stamkos.. He can play center too if needed

I don’t think I agree, he’s a power play merchant at this stage of his career

 

[AngelDuck]

I don’t think I agree, he’s a power play merchant at this stage of his career

That’s what we need. We right hand shot that can hammer the one time pass coming from Carlsson or Zegras.

They should really throw 2X10 AAV at Stamkos and see what happens

 

[Gliff]

Are people just assuming that Verbeek was lying,or are they just ignoring him and wishlisting? He very clearly said the offseason goals were a top 6 RW and more scoring in the bottom 6. Zero mention of defensemen upgrades.

Wishful thinking. Pesce and Roy are both perfect fits to play with Minty and Zellweger.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Wishful thinking. Peace and Rou are both perfect fits to play with Minty and Zellweger.

I don’t know that I can conceive of Verbeek giving Roy at 29 years old the salary or term he’d require to join this dumpster fire.

 

[DavidBL]

I don’t know that I can conceive of Verbeek giving Roy at 29 years old the salary or term he’d require to join this dumpster fire.

Is it that from from what he gave Strome? He was going to offer lindholm 6 years 2 years ago when we were "further away" in the rebuild then we are now.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Is it that from from what he gave Strome? He was going to offer lindholm 6 years 2 years ago when we were "further away" in the rebuild then we are now.

That’s from what he wouldn’t offer Lindholm - term.

I think Roy would require a max term and/or a massive dollar amount from us. He will want a Cup, and won’t want to be a 5 year bridge guy here who gets jettisoned just when the team becomes Cup relevant (assuming all goes well) - the end of any contract here would need a NMC. If he wants a Cup, he will have many better positioned suitors. If he wants max term, he will have more willing suitors (based on Verbeek’s history).

 

[DavidBL]

That’s from what he wouldn’t offer Lindholm - term.

I think Roy would require a max term and/or a massive dollar amount from us. He will want a Cup, and won’t want to be a 5 year bridge guy here who gets jettisoned just when the team becomes Cup relevant (assuming all goes well) - the end of any contract here would need a NMC. If he wants a Cup, he will have many better positioned suitors. If he wants max term, he will have more willing suitors (based on Verbeek’s history).

I mean, how big do you realistically think that number has to be to come down from 7 years to 6? Where is your cutoff for a deal you're comfortable with?

 

[gilfaizon]

That’s what we need. We right hand shot that can hammer the one time pass coming from Carlsson or Zegras.

They should really throw 2X10 AAV at Stamkos and see what happens

I think the short term is the big thing for this team. I'd much prefer this over throwing a longer term at Reinhart, Marchessault or Toffoli. Those seem to be the top RH shots available. Improving the PP would go a long way for this team.

 

[DavidBL]

I think the short term is the big thing for this team. I'd much prefer this over throwing a longer term at Reinhart, Marchessault or Toffoli. Those seem to be the top RH shots available. Improving the PP would go a long way for this team.

So would improving the PK.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I mean, how big do you realistically think that number has to be to come down from 7 years to 6? Where is your cutoff for a deal you're comfortable with?

The discussion needs to start with how high the salary/term needs to be to get Roy to sign here.he won’t be signing for 6x6, and he will require IMO a NMC.

Why would he sign here for anything less than an overpayment retirement contract? Killorn and Gudas are bad comparables, because they got much shorter contracts due to their ages. Roy will want 7 years, and IMO will get it from someone.

 

[DavidBL]

The discussion needs to start with how high the salary/term needs to be to get Roy to sign here.he won’t be signing for 6x6, and he will require IMO a NMC.

Why would he sign here for anything less than an overpayment retirement contract? Killorn and Gudas are bad comparables, because they got much shorter contracts due to their ages. Roy will want 7 years, and IMO will get it from someone.

Can't say I agree with you. I feel like you're overstating what it would take to get a UFA here. The teams that can afford the money and term for Roy are all bad. We're not the only struggling team that are going to pursue him and how much can the good teams really offer? We'll see I guess. Either We'll get him and we can discuss if we had to overpay or we don't and we'll never know what it would have taken outside of what he ultimately signes for.

Is 6.5x6 a massive overpayment at that point? If he's better than Pesce, as I feel like some here think he is, is that really a bad deal? These are guys who probably considered to be in the same realm defensively as Lindholm who got 6.5x8 2 years ago with a lower cap and resigned before he made UFA.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

The discussion needs to start with how high the salary/term needs to be to get Roy to sign here.he won’t be signing for 6x6, and he will require IMO a NMC.

Why would he sign here for anything less than an overpayment retirement contract? Killorn and Gudas are bad comparables, because they got much shorter contracts due to their ages. Roy will want 7 years, and IMO will get it from someone.

Is Roy really worth 7 years? Is he that good? Why wont kings keep him than? I think he would be a good partner with Myntikov

 

[JAHV]

The discussion needs to start with how high the salary/term needs to be to get Roy to sign here.he won’t be signing for 6x6, and he will require IMO a NMC.

Why would he sign here for anything less than an overpayment retirement contract? Killorn and Gudas are bad comparables, because they got much shorter contracts due to their ages. Roy will want 7 years, and IMO will get it from someone.

I am skeptical that a team will give him seven years in UFA. There are currently 13 defensemen in the league who signed a 7+ year deal at age 29 or older. Of those 13:

• Only two signed that deal as a UFA - Alex Pietrangelo with Vegas and Torey Krug with the Blues.
• Both of these are far different types of d-men than Roy:
  • Pietrangelo is a bona fide star #1 defenseman.
  • Krug is not quite that, but he's an offensively gifted d-man who plays significant power play minutes.
• The other 11 all signed their deals with the team that currently held their rights (Karlsson, Doughty, Josi, Burns, Spurgeon, Vlasic, Seabrook, McDonagh, Parayko, Weegar, and Mayfield).
• Obviously Vlasic and Seabrook are the cautionary tales, although they will both be at least two years older than Roy would be when his deal expired.
• Parayko and Mayfield are the two most similar players to Roy in terms of style, and I think there are some concerns with both deals (and Mayfield is only in the first year of his).
• Interestingly, if I drop the criteria down to five years, only one additional defenseman shows up: Tyler Myers, who signed as a free agent with the Canucks. Myers, incidentally, is a decent comp for Roy - a bigger, tougher RHD, although Myers is much bigger, but less mobile.

Teams very, very rarely hand out seven-year deals to late 20's UFA defensemen. And if they do, it's because they're star offensive defensemen, not defensive types. And the reason is because of the cautionary tales - defensive d-men often don't age well; it seems that once the miles build up and the skating deteriorates, the ability to get to where you need to be on the ice to play sound, physical, positional hockey is impaired to the point of ineffectiveness. Some teams are willing to take that risk on their own guys. No one is willing to take that risk on a new guy.

Summary: No one is offering Roy a seven-year deal this summer except for perhaps the Kings (and I seriously doubt they will). My guess is that he gets a four- or five-year offer in the $6 million range. If I'm the Ducks, I would look hard at that kind of deal for a guy like Roy.

 

[MMC]