Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[saskriders]

So with the league technically at 33 franchises, and owners liking big expansion fee dollars, it is pretty likely we see expansion at some point in the next few years.

On top of that the three biggest metro areas in Canada and the US that don't have an active team are Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix.

Phoenix obviously still has their inactive franchise, Atlanta has an interested ownership group with a potentially new building, and while there hasn't been as much smoke around Houston they do have an arena and potential owner.

Those three cities fit nicely into 3 of the 4 divisions the NHL has. But that leaves the question, who becomes the 9th team in the Atlantic? There aren't a whole lot of candidates, and they each have some question marks around them.

Quebec is the obvious answer for many. But who owns the team? Is the NHL still hesitant to go back? There isn't much potential for growth in the market either.

Hamilton/Toronto 2 is another option, but do Toronto and/or Buffalo need a dump truck of money to give up territory rights?

Hartford would be cool. But where do they play? Who owns the team? Is the city big enough and does it have the corporate dollars to support the team?

If GTA 2 doesn't work, what about Montreal 2? They had 2 teams once before, and the metro population is more than twice the size of many other NHL markets.

Maybe Atlanta joins the Florida teams in the Atlantic, but then where does team 36 pop up in the Metro?

Baltimore seems like it is Caps territory.

Is Cleaveland or Cincinnati an option?

Louisville isn't huge, but wouldn't be the smallest metro area. Maybe the NHL would like being the first Big 4 league in the market like they were with Vegas.

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[Tawnos]

With Atlanta back, I think you move the Predators to the Eastern Conference and put another team somewhere out west.

Talking purely about markets, San Diego tends to be my top choice if their arena plans come to fruition. Portland would be good once their court issues resolve. Would a team in Austin be a viable idea so quickly on the heels of Houston? Kansas City is one of the largest remaining markets without NHL or NBA and they have an arena, though it probably needs some renovations to bring up to modern spec.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

As you said, Atlanta and Houston seem to be the front-runners, which would put them at 35 if Meruelo gets his affairs in order (which I doubt). A lot about what they do will likely depend upon if that happens. I think that the NHL does want to get to 36, but if they are sitting at 33, 34, or 35 for a while that they wouldn’t mind too much.

Bettman name dropped Cincinnati and Omaha previously, but I have some serious doubts that those are actual billion+ dollar bids-in-the-making.

Portland and Kansas City seem like the most sensible in my head, but I don’t think we’ve heard hide nor hair there of interested parties. San Diego has likewise been mentioned as part of a push for a new arena, so that could make for a fun option if they’re serious and not just using the NHL (and NBA) as an incentive to get a good arena deal only to drop it once they do.

Milwaukee or Indianapolis would be personal hopes of mine for a more compact travel schedule for the Hawks, not going to lie, but I have doubts about their sustainability with another team added, and they likewise haven’t had any interested buyers surface. I agree that Louisville could work if the delightfully named KFC Yum! Center can sufficiently hold an NHL rink, but show me the money up front, please.

I’d be all for Canada getting another team, but it seems like the expansion fee has priced out likely parties in QC and add to that an assured indemnity needs on top to Toronto for any GTA team and I doubt that anyone would reasonably fork over the dough necessary there.

Beyond those options, it seems like the board is pretty full. What’s left as an option? Really just Hampton Roads, Virginia, and I don’t see an arena deal getting there, or Austin or San Antonio, and those don’t seem to have the fiscal backing or support that Houston has.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I've come around to the view for awhile now that in assessing expansion/relocation bids you have to look at ownership first and foremost.

Atlanta has to be #1, with detailed plans and in fact two ownership groups.

#2 Houston - depends how serious they are.

#3 Phoenix. I know AM has the rights to a team which you'd think should put them to #1, but doubts about his ability to build an arena drop them down the list.

#4? There's nothing really obvious. I can come up with a wish list of possible locations (QC, Portland, San Diego, you name it) but there's no hints of ownership groups willing to spend the money required for those cities.

 

[timekeep]

Houston should be the NHL's top target if the owner of the Rockets truly wants in. Atlanta and Phoenix need to have committed owners this time. Other targets would KC, Indy and Milwaukee. Portland would be nice too. Cleveland and Cincy are interesting. I doubt Quebec gets a look and we need to be concerned that Winnipeg may be moving.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Houston should be the NHL's top target if the owner of the Rockets truly wants in. Atlanta and Phoenix need to have committed owners this time. Other targets would KC, Indy and Milwaukee. Portland would be nice too. Cleveland and Cincy are interesting. I doubt Quebec gets a look and we need to be concerned that Winnipeg may be moving.

doubtful Independence would be considered..... Kansas City metro stance likely hasn't changed.... it's also doubtful you'd see Cincinnati based off that history or Cleveland.... Indy or Milwaukee is a hard no since the Bucks locked FISERV. Can't see Gainbridge either for Indy

 

[timekeep]

doubtful Independence would be considered..... Kansas City metro stance likely hasn't changed.... it's also doubtful you'd see Cincinnati based off that history or Cleveland.... Indy or Milwaukee is a hard no since the Bucks locked FISERV. Can't see Gainbridge either for Indy

No idea what the Independence refers too.
KC might change if the NHL was serious. What is Cincy's and Clevelands history? And is different than Arizona or Atlanta?
Sorry I don't have a clue about Fiserv or Gainbridge?

 

[ponder719]

No idea what the Independence refers too.

I think autocorrect hijacked "Indianapolis" there.

As to the topic at hand, whichever city popped up with an arena and $1.5-2B to burn. I would hope it's Quebec, the only logical answer that fits into the Atlantic, but I suspect it's San Diego, with a series of divisional adjustments to account for that.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

No idea what the Independence refers too.
KC might change if the NHL was serious. What is Cincy's and Clevelands history? And is different than Arizona or Atlanta?
Sorry I don't have a clue about Fiserv or Gainbridge?

because Kansas City is a flat no..... team is in Independence..... Cincinnati had that issue over 2 leagues/same sport.... Cleveland, GL getting Gilbert after alligning w/ Columbus..... Milwaukee got locked out when FISERV was built... Bradley Center was demolished and the existing team is UWM Panther aka the MECCA.... Indy has the Pacers/Fever as co-tenants..... that's why the Fuel have a separate arena....

I think autocorrect hijacked "Indianapolis" there.

As to the topic at hand, whichever city popped up with an arena and $1.5-2B to burn. I would hope it's Quebec, the only logical answer that fits into the Atlantic, but I suspect it's San Diego, with a series of divisional adjustments to account for that.

Independence= https://www.kcmavericks.com ARENA has been there since 2009

 

[MMC]

Kansas City

Bettman also dropped KC as having interest when he mentioned Cincinnati and Omaha

 

[ponder719]

Independence= Kansas City Mavericks | Kansas City, MO Professional Hockey | Schedule ARENA has been there since 2009

Fair enough. I don't pay that much attention to the names of arenas, and since Indianapolis was part of the conversation elsewhere, I made my best guess.

 

[SImpelton]

No new team in Canada. You can count on the ownership of the existing teams to block Quebec or Hamilton, or at least make them less convenient attractive for prospective new owners than other options, and there's no other viable spot in Canada for an NHL caliber team.

Basically you're asking for 4 new teams so if I may, I think we'll see 2 groups of 2.:

Houston and Atlanta enter the league together.

Phoenix and San Diego enter the league together.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I think autocorrect hijacked "Indianapolis" there.

As to the topic at hand, whichever city popped up with an arena and $1.5-2B to burn. I would hope it's Quebec, the only logical answer that fits into the Atlantic, but I suspect it's San Diego, with a series of divisional adjustments to account for that.

Quebec doesn't happen unless there's a off ramp for an existing EC Team... much like AZ TO UT....

Bettman also dropped KC as having interest when he mentioned Cincinnati and Omaha

unless that's changed I'll believe when I see it

 

[Takuto Maruki]

Bettman name dropped Cincinnati and Omaha previously, but I have some serious doubts that those are actual billion+ dollar bids-in-the-making.

I agree that Louisville could work if the delightfully named KFC Yum! Center can sufficiently hold an NHL rink, but show me the money up front, please.

The irony of both Louisville and Cincy is that they're close enough to one another that placing one franchise effectively eliminates the other city.

To be quite honest, I feel like aside from the obvious, and barring any sort of changes in other locales (specifically Portland and San Diego) there's really no answer to who might be next in line after ATL/HOU/PHX, if it ever comes to that. This isn't like MLS, or even the USL/CPL where you can realistically put a team in any tom, dick and harry metro area as long as a stadium is present and expect people to come through the gates and make a decent profit.

 

[Max Milk]

The Cleveland Barons will ride again. Mark my words.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Quebec doesn't happen unless there's a off ramp for an existing EC Team... much like AZ TO UT....

But let's look at that AZ to UT "off-ramp". It cost Ryan Smith $1.2 billion dollars.

Relocation is not some secret way to get a bargain-priced team - because that will only reduce franchise value.

Said it before, I'll say it again - if PKP had $1.2 bil to spend the Coyotes would be in Quebec City, not Utah. After all Quebec City has an almost-new state of the art NHL arena and a long history of hockey.

But (as I theorize) PKP doesn't have $1.2 bil, and thus Quebec City was nowhere to be seen.

 

[tucker3434]

My guess is Portland. Seems pretty plug and play. Pretty sure the Trail Blazers arena handles hockey already. No idea how current ownership feels about owning an NHL team. But if either they or a subsequent owner want it, shouldn’t be that hard to make it happen. #23 media market, 2.5m people. It all fits.

Austin is my wild card. The way that city is growing, the NHL will want to be there, but it may still be ~20 years early.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Austin is my wild card. The way that city is growing, the NHL will want to be there, but it may still be ~20 years early.

No idea who the investors are, but Austin is my pick. One of the fastest growing cities in NA in the last decade, HUGE corporate (namely tech) presence, no other professional team other than the MLS, and a very young demographic. I'd think this market is a homerun.

 

[Tawnos]

I've come around to the view for awhile now that in assessing expansion/relocation bids you have to look at ownership first and foremost.

Atlanta has to be #1, with detailed plans and in fact two ownership groups.

#2 Houston - depends how serious they are.

#3 Phoenix. I know AM has the rights to a team which you'd think should put them to #1, but doubts about his ability to build an arena drop them down the list.

#4? There's nothing really obvious. I can come up with a wish list of possible locations (QC, Portland, San Diego, you name it) but there's no hints of ownership groups willing to spend the money required for those cities.

I tend to come at this from the other direction. Not that billionaires are infallible of course, but for me the discussion of markets is basically a matter of “where would a successful businessperson who could afford a team be interested in putting one.”

For example, Warren Buffett could easily afford an NHL team. If he were interested, would he really be interested in putting one in Omaha? So I look up the various factors that would make it a viable market and I come to the conclusion that, no… he would not.

You do absolutely have to have an owner who can afford to buy and run a team. It’s one of the 4 legs of the expansion table… market size, arena, growth potential being the other three. 100% you need all 4. But for me, the ownership component is the least interesting one to discuss.

 

[gstommylee]

No idea who the investors are, but Austin is my pick. One of the fastest growing cities in NA in the last decade, HUGE corporate (namely tech) presence, no other professional team other than the MLS, and a very young demographic. I'd think this market is a homerun.

and who's gonna build that 17k seat arena that doesn't involve tax payers dollars.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I tend to come at this from the other direction. Not that billionaires are infallible of course, but for me the discussion of markets is basically a matter of “where would a successful businessperson who could afford a team be interested in putting one.”

For example, Warren Buffett could easily afford an NHL team. If he were interested, would he really be interested in putting one in Omaha? So I look up the various factors that would make it a viable market and I come to the conclusion that, no… he would not.

You do absolutely have to have an owner who can afford to buy and run a team. It’s one of the 4 legs of the expansion table… market size, arena, growth potential being the other three. 100% you need all 4. But for me, the ownership component is the least interesting one to discuss.

Totally disagree.

If you go back, what, 24 months, SLC was barely ever mentioned as a NHL destination. I mean it was discussed, but way back on the list. So what happened? Ryan Smith bought the Jazz, bought Real Salt Lake, and suddenly wanted to buy an NH franchise. The market size and arena didn't change (really disagree about "growth potential - these guys aren't looking at 20+ year timelines).

And with the price being $1.2 bil, there's fewer people who can afford an NHL franchise - and of those fewer still who would want one. You mentioned Warren Buffet - no sign he'd want one. He's notoriously frugal and only buys businesses he understands.

So you can extoll the virtues of Virginia Beach, sing paeans to Louisville, or talk about how groovy Austin would be - none of it matters unless you have an ownership group in place.

 

[Melrose Munch]

San Diego

I am willing to be we will find and owner there before Phoenix.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

No idea who the investors are, but Austin is my pick. One of the fastest growing cities in NA in the last decade, HUGE corporate (namely tech) presence, no other professional team other than the MLS, and a very young demographic. I'd think this market is a homerun.

where's the arena.... when Cedar Park essentially covers said market

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

The Cleveland Barons will ride again. Mark my words.

in what arena.... if the Cavaliers own the arena in Cleveland and already own a team in said arena.... it's why Cleveland has had hockey there since 2006.... there is no Barons franchise it's now the Barracuda.

 

[Tawnos]

Totally disagree.

If you go back, what, 24 months, SLC was barely ever mentioned as a NHL destination. I mean it was discussed, but way back on the list. So what happened? Ryan Smith bought the Jazz, bought Real Salt Lake, and suddenly wanted to buy an NH franchise. The market size and arena didn't change (really disagree about "growth potential - these guys aren't looking at 20+ year timelines).

And with the price being $1.2 bil, there's fewer people who can afford an NHL franchise - and of those fewer still who would want one. You mentioned Warren Buffet - no sign he'd want one. He's notoriously frugal and only buys businesses he understands.

So you can extoll the virtues of Virginia Beach, sing paeans to Louisville, or talk about how groovy Austin would be - none of it matters unless you have an ownership group in place.

I mean, like I said.. it’s a vital part of the story. I just don’t find it interesting because it’s a dead end discussion. “Is there an owner? No one yet? They aren’t getting a team.” How boring of a position for a message board.

SLC was often a name that came up in expansion discussions around here. It usually got dismissed because of the Jazz and misunderstandings about the size of the market. I clearly remember saying that it would’ve been a perfect market for the NHL if there weren’t an NBA team. Though I hadn’t thought of the winter sports as an X factor until Smith came around and mentioned it.

Prospective owners might not care about growth potential, but the league does. They’re not putting a team any place just because an owner comes forward with an expansion fee.