# The stock market thread.



## Thucydides

When USA slipped into recession there a few years back, I became intrigued by the stock market. I was still pretty broke at the time, and couldn't afford to buy shares or stocks in any company. Instead I bought some books - Benjamin Graham's, The Intelligent Investor, being the one I feel the need to name drop - Everything I learned about investing, the stock market, and how to invest your money wisely has been learned from this book. If anyone hasn't read it, and is interested in investing, or the stock market itself, it's a must read. But I digress.

Fast forward a few years later, my financial situation is different, and suddenly the price of oil has gone from 100 dollars a barrel, to 43, so I decided to take the plunge into the volatile world of the stock market.

Anyone actively involved besides with your pension/401k at work?


----------



## Hammettf2b

Always been intrigued by it but never had the disposable income to actually do anything, therefore I never really did any research on how to go about it.


----------



## The Joker*

I trade daily.


----------



## Thucydides

Ryan Atwood said:


> I trade daily.




Oil stocks ?


----------



## The Joker*

stingo said:


> Oil stocks ?



No. No energy stocks at all. TSLA and SCTY I guess.


----------



## HanSolo

Bawsaq is currently unavailable for GTA Online. Please try again later.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

we did a stock market simulation project in my econ class where we had a fake $100,000 to invest in real stocks. my group ended up with $146,000 at the end of the month. We just found cheap stocks around $14 that would jump in value.

We'd go all in when the price was low and then watch it until the value rose by like 20 cents, then sell them all, wait for the value to drop again, and then repeat. We'd usually buy in and then out about 20 times an hour.

we weren't sure if that was illegal or just the way that buying stocks works but that's what we did

our most reliable stock was FSAM


----------



## ChickenBurrito

RoyalVoyager said:


> we did a stock market simulation project in my econ class where we had a fake $100,000 to invest in real stocks. my group ended up with $146,000 at the end of the month. We just found cheap stocks around $14 that would jump in value.
> 
> We'd go all in when the price was low and then watch it until the value rose by like 20 cents, then sell them all, wait for the value to drop again, and then repeat. We'd usually buy in and then out about 20 times an hour.
> 
> we weren't sure if that was illegal or just the way that buying stocks works but that's what we did
> 
> our most reliable stock was FSAM




Did your game factor in the cost of each trade? Every time you bought or sold the stock it would have cost you about $8.


----------



## ChickenBurrito

I don't trade daily but I check on my portfolio daily. If I notice that a stock or ETF I own is starting to dip or I read something about a stock I own I'll try to sell it and take the profit I've made. I'm not trying to get rich off the stock market but I do have a nice amount for retirement that I hope to keep increasing.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

ChickenBurrito said:


> Did your game factor in the cost of each trade? Every time you bought or sold the stock it would have cost you about $8.




$8 per stock? if so, no


----------



## Thucydides

If I bought 100 shares of td bank stock in the morning, I would pay the price for the shares, plus a 9.99 commission fee. and if selling those shares in the afternoon, it's going to cost me another 9.99 commission fee to sell. 

So I need to make at least 30 bucks to be at all profitable if doing that.

I do a bit of day trading, mostly on oil stocks, as they are extremely volatile right now, some of them swinging anywhere from 40-60 cents in a single hour. 

I've made some money day trading, but I've lost and been forced to hold "long" too.

I have 2 risky stocks, but for me, I see the market as an investment and try not to gamble with the market too much, unless I see a stock is crazy undervalued, and then I might throw a thousand bucks at it, and hope for 100-200 profit before selling. Besides those two stocks, all of the stocks I buy into pay either a monthly, or a quarterly dividend. 

Nothing better than making capital gains on the initial shares purchased, plus them also paying you just to hold their shares.


----------



## hitman9172

Come from a finance background and very involved in the stock market.

Day trading is a fool's game. Almost all day traders will underperform the market in the long-run after factoring in fees and taxes.

Invest in low-cost ETFs unless you have the time, energy, intensity, and quantitative financial skills to research individual stocks (which most people in the world don't have). I also invest in blue-chip "dream" companies, but only at times when the world is ending, like during the last financial crisis. Unless you're in a recession, most blue chip companies are either fairly priced or overly priced, which means that they're probably not the best option if you're trying to maximize long-term returns.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

this guy^


----------



## Tyler Foli

I took a stock market class this past semester in school. It was interesting for sure but I've never had the kind of money to invest in it. I'm also a pretty risk-averse individual so while I thought it was cool and I applaud those who make it work them, it's probably not something I would spend a lot of time doing.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

I follow the stock market only so far as to see how the overall market/indexes do for the day, as I only invest in broad market index ETFs, no singular company stocks.


----------



## Thucydides

hitman9172 said:


> Come from a finance background and very involved in the stock market.
> 
> Day trading is a fool's game. Almost all day traders will underperform the market in the long-run after factoring in fees and taxes.
> 
> Invest in low-cost ETFs unless you have the time, energy, intensity, and quantitative financial skills to research individual stocks (which most people in the world don't have). I also invest in blue-chip "dream" companies, but only at times when the world is ending, like during the last financial crisis. Unless you're in a recession, most blue chip companies are either fairly priced or overly priced, which means that they're probably not the best option if you're trying to maximize long-term returns.




While I agree with your main point - investing in broad low cost index funds (vanguard total market index fund).

As for buying individual stocks - as long as you keep up on it, buy a small amount of companies, can read and more importantly understand quarterly reports) buying stocks and reits can make you a lot of capital gain, especially when investing in the long term. 

Look at the historical growth at some of your favourite companies stocks. 

I am more of a deep value investor, and it is working, but it's definitely not for the lazy investor.


----------



## markrander87

Keep an eye on MEEC...


----------



## Thucydides

markrander87 said:


> Keep an I on MEEC...




Are you talking about Midwest Energy Emiss? If so, is 0.69 cents a good level to get in at?


----------



## montreal

I have worked for several of the top investment banks, have been trading stocks, funds, stock options for over 20 years. My degree is in Finance, got my Series 6 and 63 while working for the Vanguard Group. 

Right now I invest mostly in highly speculative stocks in the bio-tech sector. But I don't recommend it for anyone that isn't a professional as it's a very high risk area. You need to know how to read charts, how to hedge with options and find someone that you can trust that has some kind of medical background.


----------



## Hammettf2b

montreal said:


> I have worked for several of the top investment banks, have been trading stocks, funds, stock options for over 20 years. My degree is in Finance, got my Series 6 and 63 while working for the Vanguard Group.
> 
> Right now I invest mostly in highly speculative stocks in the bio-tech sector. But I don't recommend it for anyone that isn't a professional as it's a very high risk area. You need to know how to read charts, how to hedge with options and find someone that you can trust that has some kind of medical background.




Thinly veiled brag about being a stock market professional.


----------



## Hammettf2b

montreal said:


> I didn't think it was that thin.




haha, question for you. What would be the minimum amount of money to start investing long term for a complete noob like me?


----------



## orangecrush8

The company I work for has an employee share purchase plan. They match 50% of employee contributions up to a max of 5% per pay.


----------



## montreal

Hammettf2b said:


> haha, question for you. What would be the minimum amount of money to start investing long term for a complete noob like me?




That's a tough question since I know nothing about you,

what are you looking to do with the money, is this for your retirement or extra cash?

how old are you (ball park is fine, 20's? 30's?)

can you afford to take a lot of risk or do you need the money in the near future to buy things (house, car, etc..)

I assume you don't have any experience trading stocks, are you trying to learn and want to be an active investor (that means you do all the work, you do the research, you execute the trades, you track the progress) or are you just looking to put some money into the market and not have to worry about it? 

You need to figure out what kind of financial instrument is best for you based off you risk tolerance. For someone that doesn't know the market, but is young so they have lots of years to grow, and is ok with taking some risk you would want something like an index fund. If you don't want to take a lot of risk you go with a bond fund or cds if you need the money in the near future and don't want to risk capital. 

If you are just using "play" money meaning you want to put a little into the market to buy a stock but don't know what stock and don't know how to go about researching said stocks, you might want to look at an ETF which is a collection of stocks in a certain sector (tech, energy, etc...)


----------



## Hammettf2b

montreal said:


> That's a tough question since I know nothing about you,
> 
> what are you looking to do with the money, is this for your retirement or extra cash?
> 
> how old are you (ball park is fine, 20's? 30's?)
> 
> can you afford to take a lot of risk or do you need the money in the near future to buy things (house, car, etc..)
> 
> I assume you don't have any experience trading stocks, are you trying to learn and want to be an active investor (that means you do all the work, you do the research, you execute the trades, you track the progress) or are you just looking to put some money into the market and not have to worry about it?
> 
> You need to figure out what kind of financial instrument is best for you based off you risk tolerance. For someone that doesn't know the market, but is young so they have lots of years to grow, and is ok with taking some risk you would want something like an index fund. If you don't want to take a lot of risk you go with a bond fund or cds if you need the money in the near future and don't want to risk capital.
> 
> If you are just using "play" money meaning you want to put a little into the market to buy a stock but don't know what stock and don't know how to go about researching said stocks, you might want to look at an ETF which is a collection of stocks in a certain sector (tech, energy, etc...)




Would like to make some extra cash for the near future. I'm 30 and would like to leave the investment in one place for a while.


----------



## The Joker*

hitman9172 said:


> Unless you're in a recession, most blue chip companies are either fairly priced or overly priced, which means that they're probably not the best option if you're trying to maximize long-term returns.



That's funny, because the bluest of all blue chips in the world (AAPL) is severely undervalued imo.


----------



## Thucydides

Hammettf2b said:


> Would like to make some extra cash for the near future. I'm 30 and would like to leave the investment in one place for a while.




Do you think oil is going to go back up in the near future? If so, there's your answer. 

I'm *very* bullish on oil, and have a lot of my money weighted in the energy sector. 

Bought into solid companies from 53 bucks per barrel(called the bottom wrong) all the way down to 43, and bought on the way back up to 53 

Holding and waiting now. 

I've known guys that started investing with just 1500 dollars. You're not going to get rich off that but it's do-able. 

Read Benjamin Graham's the intelligent investor.


----------



## Thucydides

I just want to add thAt 1500 is a good start to investing . You're going to want to add to that as much as you can. 

Most brokers won't take you without a minimum of 12,500. 

I started with 20k . 

I'll also save you the trouble and tell you not to play the true penny stocks/pink sheets. 

Did it twice and lost my money each time. Buying into micro cap gold junior mining companies hoping for them to move up 6 cents. Lol 

There are better risks to take.


----------



## Hammettf2b

stingo said:


> Do you think oil is going to go back up in the near future? If so, there's your answer.
> 
> I'm *very* bullish on oil, and have a lot of my money weighted in the energy sector.
> 
> Bought into solid companies from 53 bucks per barrel(called the bottom wrong) all the way down to 43, and bought on the way back up to 53
> 
> Holding and waiting now.
> 
> I've known guys that started investing with just 1500 dollars. You're not going to get rich off that but it's do-able.
> 
> Read Benjamin Graham's the intelligent investor.






stingo said:


> I just want to add thAt 1500 is a good start to investing . You're going to want to add to that as much as you can.
> 
> Most brokers won't take you without a minimum of 12,500.
> 
> I started with 20k .
> 
> I'll also save you the trouble and tell you not to play the true penny stocks/pink sheets.
> 
> Did it twice and lost my money each time. Buying into micro cap gold junior mining companies hoping for them to move up 6 cents. Lol
> 
> There are better risks to take.



Awesome, thanks!!!


----------



## markrander87

stingo said:


> Are you talking about Midwest Energy Emiss? If so, is 0.69 cents a good level to get in at?




Yes...I locked in when it was at $0.50.

Unfortunately I should have sold when it reached $2.50 and then reinvested.


----------



## hitman9172

Ryan Atwood said:


> That's funny, because the bluest of all blue chips in the world (AAPL) is severely undervalued imo.




Could be. Or it could be overvalued. Tech companies have very fast product life cycles. Apple could be a second tier tech company 10 years from now. It was only a mere 8 years ago that Apple was an afterthought. 15 years ago Microsoft ran the world. Samsung looked to be challenging Apple for the top spot in tech a few short years ago and now look at it. And I won't even mention Blackberry. Valuing tech companies is inherently difficult because they leapfrog each other so quickly. Rapid change is often the enemy of most investors

My point about most blue chip companies not being undervalued still stands. Most people are unlikely to achieve the returns they desire by pursuing blue chip companies. Unless we're in a market panic.

Most people believe they can outperform the market in the long run after fees and taxes and most people are wrong. It is a rare skill to find. For most people, Jack Bogle's advice is valid: "Just buy the damn index fund".


----------



## Tim Calhoun

Right now I'm waiting for the next stock market crash (I predict 2017-18) before investing significant chunks of my savings back in the market.

Stocks are just way too overvalued right now.


----------



## Thucydides

Tim Calhoun said:


> Right now I'm waiting for the next stock market crash (I predict 2017-18) before investing significant chunks of my savings back in the market.
> 
> Stocks are just way too overvalued right now.




You think the stock market is overvalued now? 

Just wait. 

Can't see the market crashing in 2017-18.


----------



## hitman9172

stingo said:


> You think the stock market is overvalued now?
> 
> Just wait.
> 
> Can't see the market crashing in 2017-18.




Odds are that neither of you (or anyone else here) can predict when the market will crash next.

Problem with sitting in cash is that the (US) market often rises by enough where its value will be higher than it is today, even after a correction. Cash also becomes a sort of "drug" which you never want to let go of until its too late. 
If you're sitting in cash and the market drops, odds are that you'll mis-time it by staying in cash too long hoping for a further drop.


----------



## Soliloquy of a Dogge

Invest in Los Pollos Hermanos and Cluckin' Bell. 

De-Invest in HFBoards.


----------



## montreal

Hammettf2b said:


> Would like to make some extra cash for the near future. I'm 30 and would like to leave the investment in one place for a while.




now it depends on how much knowledge you have of the market, how much work you want to put into it and how much risk you want to take. 



Ryan Atwood said:


> That's funny, because the bluest of all blue chips in the world (AAPL) is severely undervalued imo.




keep this in mind, AAPL is just coming off a 4 of 1 stock split not that long ago which means that now there is 4 times as many shares then there was so that means demand needs to be 4 times higher. I almost bought back in when it hit 123, was hoping it would drop to 121 but I was only going to buy a small amount like 90 or 100 shares just because I've had it in the past and done well plus I think it's like the best stock in the world in the long run. Just that with the split it may take a little while before you see it back over 200 again. 

I used to own Snapple ice tea, that sucker split 3 times very quickly and I made a decent amount on it but I waited too long to get out as all the splits caught up to demand and it started drooping. Each stock is it's own so I'm not comparing, just stating that you have to keep things in perspective. 



stingo said:


> Do you think oil is going to go back up in the near future? If so, there's your answer.
> 
> I'm *very* bullish on oil, and have a lot of my money weighted in the energy sector.
> 
> Bought into solid companies from 53 bucks per barrel(called the bottom wrong) all the way down to 43, and bought on the way back up to 53
> 
> Holding and waiting now.
> 
> I've known guys that started investing with just 1500 dollars. You're not going to get rich off that but it's do-able.
> 
> Read Benjamin Graham's the intelligent investor.




Oil has easily been my best stock picks over the years, I've gotten very lucky to be in at the right time and I just got out completely when it was in the upper 90's (if I was really smart I would have shorted it as I was told by several traders that it was going under 75 and likely a lot worse, should have listened)

Energy has been beaten up, I got out but just stuck my toe back in on Chesapeake Energy with a small buy since I liked the chart and it was cheap. I will slowly rotate back into energy as I'm not sure when it bounces back but there is some good value plays. I know Graham's work as I studied Warren Buffett who learned under Graham, value investing is not really my thing but I would highly recommend that approach for people that work outside the industry (or even in the market if they aren't active investors) 



Tim Calhoun said:


> Right now I'm waiting for the next stock market crash (I predict 2017-18) before investing significant chunks of my savings back in the market.
> 
> Stocks are just way too overvalued right now.




Stock valuation is high and concerning but I could still see a few good years before I get too concerned. Trying to time the big drops is really hard to do but that's why I recommend to people that are heavily invested to always have a nice chunk of spare cash ready to pounce for when that day comes as you got to buy when no one else is buying if you want to get in at lower levels.


----------



## Thucydides

montreal said:


> now it depends on how much knowledge you have of the market, how much work you want to put into it and how much risk you want to take.
> 
> 
> 
> keep this in mind, AAPL is just coming off a 4 of 1 stock split not that long ago which means that now there is 4 times as many shares then there was so that means demand needs to be 4 times higher. I almost bought back in when it hit 123, was hoping it would drop to 121 but I was only going to buy a small amount like 90 or 100 shares just because I've had it in the past and done well plus I think it's like the best stock in the world in the long run. Just that with the split it may take a little while before you see it back over 200 again.
> 
> I used to own Snapple ice tea, that sucker split 3 times very quickly and I made a decent amount on it but I waited too long to get out as all the splits caught up to demand and it started drooping. Each stock is it's own so I'm not comparing, just stating that you have to keep things in perspective.
> 
> 
> 
> Oil has easily been my best stock picks over the years, I've gotten very lucky to be in at the right time and I just got out completely when it was in the upper 90's (if I was really smart I would have shorted it as I was told by several traders that it was going under 75 and likely a lot worse, should have listened)
> 
> Energy has been beaten up, I got out but just stuck my toe back in on Chesapeake Energy with a small buy since I liked the chart and it was cheap. I will slowly rotate back into energy as I'm not sure when it bounces back but there is some good value plays. I know Graham's work as I studied Warren Buffett who learned under Graham, value investing is not really my thing but I would highly recommend that approach for people that work outside the industry (or even in the market if they aren't active investors)
> 
> 
> 
> Stock valuation is high and concerning but I could still see a few good years before I get too concerned. Trying to time the big drops is really hard to do but that's why I recommend to people that are heavily invested to always have a nice chunk of spare cash ready to pounce for when that day comes as you got to buy when no one else is buying if you want to get in at lower levels.




Great post. Very interesting, and informative, thank you. 

I've not invested into any American oil companies, as I've had my hands full investing in the Canadian energy sector. Here's some of the plays I've made this past winter that has made me money, with my buy and sell points. 

Blackpearl Resources - Bought at 1.18, bought again at 0.77 and 0.85 cents. Sold at 1.27. Nice profit. 

Pacific Rubiales - Bought from 4.50 all the way down to 2.50. It was just bought out a couple weeks ago for 6.00. Sold at 6.33. Nice profit again. 

Legacy Oil and Gas - Bought at 1.80, the price immediately took off over the next couple weeks to a high of 3.15. Still holding as I believe they are going to either sell assets, or be bought out for a share price of 6-7 dollars here in the next couple weeks. The price is still at good levels right now for getting in. 2.75, and there's lots of news articles out there explaining what is going on with the company if you're interested. They have some amazing assets. Worth a look. Before oil crashed Legacy was 10 bucks a share. 

These were some risky stocks, so I got out when I was happy with the profit margins, and put the money, and profit into safe dividend paying bank and blue chip energy companies, as long as they paid a dividend - Suncor, Crescent Point Energy (Love their 0.23 cent monthly dividend. They pay my phone bill every month. )

I've also invested some of my money into Reits. One of my good buddies and I are going to get into actual real estate this summer/fall, but until then I am happy to make some money off real estate without the headache of finding good tenants and fixing problems that arise. Love that Reits pay a monthly dividend. I own Killam Reit, and Chartwell Retirement.

*hitman* I want to get into low cost ETFs. Can you list off some? I'd love to look into them more. Are there any that pay a monthly dividend, or is it all quarterly? 

I've had losses in the stock market as well, and i've learned that if you just randomly pick stocks and just cross your fingers, chances are, you're going to lose your money. I spend hours researching, reading quarterly reports, and e-mailing and talking to the company before I invest any money into them. I would like to become a "lazy investor" where I don't have to devote as much/any time to it, and don't have to check the market everyday. I want to rest easy knowing my money is working for me, which is why I'm really interested in index funds. 

What do you think of the Total Market Vanguard Index Fund, *hitman*?


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Great post. Very interesting, and informative, thank you.
> 
> I've not invested into any American oil companies, as I've had my hands full investing in the Canadian energy sector. Here's some of the plays I've made this past winter that has made me money, with my buy and sell points.
> 
> Blackpearl Resources - Bought at 1.18, bought again at 0.77 and 0.85 cents. Sold at 1.27. Nice profit.
> 
> Pacific Rubiales - Bought from 4.50 all the way down to 2.50. It was just bought out a couple weeks ago for 6.00. Sold at 6.33. Nice profit again.
> 
> Legacy Oil and Gas - Bought at 1.80, the price immediately took off over the next couple weeks to a high of 3.15. Still holding as I believe they are going to either sell assets, or be bought out for a share price of 6-7 dollars here in the next couple weeks. The price is still at good levels right now for getting in. 2.75, and there's lots of news articles out there explaining what is going on with the company if you're interested. They have some amazing assets. Worth a look. Before oil crashed Legacy was 10 bucks a share.
> 
> These were some risky stocks, so I got out when I was happy with the profit margins, and put the money, and profit into safe dividend paying bank and blue chip energy companies, as long as they paid a dividend - Suncor, Crescent Point Energy (Love their 0.23 cent monthly dividend. They pay my phone bill every month. )
> 
> I've also invested some of my money into Reits. One of my good buddies and I are going to get into actual real estate this summer/fall, but until then I am happy to make some money off real estate without the headache of finding good tenants and fixing problems that arise. Love that Reits pay a monthly dividend. I own Killam Reit, and Chartwell Retirement.
> 
> *hitman* I want to get into low cost ETFs. Can you list off some? I'd love to look into them more. Are there any that pay a monthly dividend, or is it all quarterly?
> 
> I've had losses in the stock market as well, and i've learned that if you just randomly pick stocks and just cross your fingers, chances are, you're going to lose your money. I spend hours researching, reading quarterly reports, and e-mailing and talking to the company before I invest any money into them. I would like to become a "lazy investor" where I don't have to devote as much/any time to it, and don't have to check the market everyday. I want to rest easy knowing my money is working for me, which is why I'm really interested in index funds.
> 
> What do you think of the Total Market Vanguard Index Fund, *hitman*?




I don't follow the Canadian energy sector but I have owned Suncor in the past. I also did well with a bio-tech Tekmira based out of Burnaby, BC and Goldcorp based out of Vancouver, BC. But it sounds like you are doing your homework and that is a major key as too many people don't want to put the time in. The lesson I've learned is that no one will work as hard for your money as you will.

Reits and real estate are a good way to go as well, I have had some Reits in the past that pay a nice dividend and if you know real estate you can do really well there as the market will bounce around but in the end it's usually a good bet depending on location and other factors of course.

I know you were asking the other poster about ETF's, I have never owned one so I will defer but I do like them for investors that like a sector but don't want to own the stock outright. As for the Total Market Vanguard Index Fund, having worked for Vanguard I highly recommend them, imo they are one of the best in the business hands down. I like the 500 Index but I wouldn't buy it until it pulls back, then again I don't trade with index funds either since I do all the work myself.

good luck to you!


----------



## Thucydides

montreal said:


> I don't follow the Canadian energy sector but I have owned Suncor in the past. I also did well with a bio-tech Tekmira based out of Burnaby, BC and Goldcorp based out of Vancouver, BC. But it sounds like you are doing your homework and that is a major key as too many people don't want to put the time in. The lesson I've learned is that no one will work as hard for your money as you will.
> 
> Reits and real estate are a good way to go as well, I have had some Reits in the past that pay a nice dividend and if you know real estate you can do really well there as the market will bounce around but in the end it's usually a good bet depending on location and other factors of course.
> 
> I know you were asking the other poster about ETF's, I have never owned one so I will defer but I do like them for investors that like a sector but don't want to own the stock outright. As for the Total Market Vanguard Index Fund, having worked for Vanguard I highly recommend them, imo they are one of the best in the business hands down. I like the 500 Index but I wouldn't buy it until it pulls back, then again I don't trade with index funds either since I do all the work myself.
> 
> good luck to you!




Thanks for your reply. 

I have been watching their ETF, VTI. Historically seems to raise 5% every year. Once you get to a certain point ($1,000,000), you could live off say, 3% in a country like Costa Rica for the rest of your life, retiring years ahead of 65. That's a long ways away for me yet though.

Yes, a lot of Reits pay a great dividend, and if you do your homework, there's some money to be made there in capital gain along with a safe dividend. 

Why did you get out of Suncor? Before the crash in oil, I hope. I just bought into Suncor late last week at 56 a share. Warren Buffet got in at 58, so I'm thinking I'm safe at these levels. Haha.

I do a lot of the work myself, too, which is another reason I didn't immediately enter into Index funds. I thought buying individual stock would help me get a better grasp of the market. 

Any advice or tips on your part would be appreciated though. Like I said, I just entered the stock market for the first time back in December and have a ton to learn.

Edited: Are those companies you listed still a good play now? (Goldcorp, and the biotech) I'll have to check them out. Enjoy your week-end.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Thanks for your reply.
> 
> I have been watching their ETF, VTI. Historically seems to raise 5% every year. Once you get to a certain point ($1,000,000), you could live off say, 3% in a country like Costa Rica for the rest of your life, retiring years ahead of 65. That's a long ways away for me yet though.
> 
> Yes, a lot of Reits pay a great dividend, and if you do your homework, there's some money to be made there in capital gain along with a safe dividend.
> 
> Why did you get out of Suncor? Before the crash in oil, I hope. I just bought into Suncor late last week at 56 a share. Warren Buffet got in at 58, so I'm thinking I'm safe at these levels. Haha.
> 
> I do a lot of the work myself, too, which is another reason I didn't immediately enter into Index funds. I thought buying individual stock would help me get a better grasp of the market.
> 
> Any advice or tips on your part would be appreciated though. Like I said, I just entered the stock market for the first time back in December and have a ton to learn.
> 
> Edited: Are those companies you listed still a good play now? (Goldcorp, and the biotech) I'll have to check them out. Enjoy your week-end.




I was in and out of Suncor and GG a long time ago, just made the money I wanted and got out as it wasn't my money but for a client's account. I got into GG way before the gold rush but got out way too soon. But that's how you learn, through years and years of experience. I wouldn't go back into gold as I don't like how it's traded at all.

I still like TKMR a lot, the chart is ugly but if you can live with risk I think you will get a real nice reward in next few years. The price is good, if interested you might want to consider to dollar cost average which in case you don't know, that just means instead of trying to time the market you buy smaller amounts over a longer period of time. It reduces your risky exposure but you won't make as much. On the other hand if you bought say 1000 shares at 14, in say 2 years (perhaps more, perhaps less, bio-techs are very risky but that's why they pay out so big if you are in the right one at the right time) you could be looking at 30 to 50K minus the 14K you put in plus the cost to buy and sell and taxes. 

I think at some point they get bought out as they have a lot of drugs in the pipeline, the downside risk is that their drugs are still in early to very early stages which makes their risky factor much higher. I like the management team, they seem to know what they are doing and while it's a slow process, I do like them long term. I got out at 24 but am itching to get back in, just waiting to see how it continues to trade as there's no good reason why it should have fallen this much so the shorts must be invading. You have to be very careful about the short interest, they can do a lot of damage and usually know what's going on before the market does.

As for advice, it sounds like you have a good approach. I know I learned a lot in my Finance classes reading william o'neil and his approach called CANSLIM. His book really helped me learn how to read charts, while I'm not overly a technical investor, I would never make a move without having a good feeling about the chart. Then again I have to do this for a living.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAN_SLIM


----------



## Thucydides

I hear you about the shorts. I was following and in on Athabasca oil at 2.50, and didn't realize the amount of shorts out on the stock. Something like 68 million. I just read about the company and researched the company and liked them as a mid - term play - 2017. It was the first shares I've ever bought, and learned from it. Luckily, I was able to average down when the price fell to 1.61. I still have a feeling it will be bought out in the long term due to the value of their assets, so I'm okay with some pretty low swings.

How do you know when to get out? Buffet says to wait 6-11 years.

What level are you hoping to get back in at on the biotech?

I'll research it, and do my homework, and if I like it and am confident in it, I'll put it on my watchlist for sure. But if you think it's a good play, I'm sure it is, considering your field of work. 

Where did you go to school?


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> I hear you about the shorts. I was following and in on Athabasca oil at 2.50, and didn't realize the amount of shorts out on the stock. Something like 68 million. I just read about the company and researched the company and liked them as a mid - term play - 2017. It was the first shares I've ever bought, and learned from it. Luckily, I was able to average down when the price fell to 1.61. I still have a feeling it will be bought out in the long term due to the value of their assets, so I'm okay with some pretty low swings.
> 
> How do you know when to get out? Buffet says to wait 6-11 years.
> 
> What level are you hoping to get back in at on the biotech?
> 
> I'll research it, and do my homework, and if I like it and am confident in it, I'll put it on my watchlist for sure. But if you think it's a good play, I'm sure it is, considering your field of work.
> 
> Where did you go to school?




I let the charts tell me when it's time to get out, sometimes you get caught holding the bag though which could mean you have a long wait before you can get your money back. Personally I think it's the hardest part of investing. 

TKMR I am waiting to see how it continues to trade, I like the price but not how it's been acting. The lower it goes the more attracted I get though since it wasn't long ago it was a 30 bucks. Can't hurt to put it on your watch list, just keep in mind it's a very risky stock.

I went to a small business school, Goldey-Beacom College in Wilmington Delaware.


----------



## Thucydides

Did a bit of research and not sure how I feel about investing in Ebola vaccination. I think it's a stock run by news. How far along in trials are they? Did they pass initial trials? 

I don't know anything about the biotech sector so i try not to invest in things I don't understand . 

I will watch it though. 

I have been thinking of doing a two year business degree and writing my mutual fund license. Is it possible to enter the business world at my age, 31?


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Did a bit of research and not sure how I feel about investing in Ebola vaccination. I think it's a stock run by news. How far along in trials are they? Did they pass initial trials?
> 
> I don't know anything about the biotech sector so i try not to invest in things I don't understand .
> 
> I will watch it though.
> 
> I have been thinking of doing a two year business degree and writing my mutual fund license. Is it possible to enter the business world at my age, 31?




They are much more then just ebola, they also have good exposure to the Hep B market as well as a cancer drug (I don't know too much about that one though) as well as other drugs. The ebola human trails were put on hold until the breakout, they have had the most success of any other company in terms of primate and humans survival rates (100%) but yes ebola is very much traded by the news and the story is now all but over from the look so it. ZMapp had some success but they are private owned and it takes them a very long time to create the drug. 

As I said bio-tech's are very risky, they carry a huge risk-reward ratio, they aren't for your average investor but as you continue to learn it can be a great money maker if you know what you are doing. I'm in no way suggesting you buy it, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.

Yes it's possible to enter the field at 31, or 41 for that matter depending on what you want to do as financial advisors will always be in demand and they often don't care what you know but if you can sell.


----------



## hitman9172

montreal said:


> they often don't care what you know but if you can sell.




That's the problem with institutional finance


----------



## montreal

hitman9172 said:


> That's the problem with institutional finance




agreed, they are taught not to do what's best for you but what's best to not lose you money. For some that's not bad but for others that need the incoming in their retirement years it impacts them.

I'd say the worst problem in the stock market/investing is short sellers, the SEC sitting on their hands and doing nothing about the fails to deliver list, HFT, dark pools.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

montreal said:


> agreed, they are taught not to do what's best for you but what's best to not lose you money. For some that's not bad but for others that need the incoming in their retirement years it impacts them.




This is why I despise some of the financial talking heads. You should only buy one product and forget the rest is basically the message. A financial product is one tool in a toolbox. High Growth Mutual funds inside tax advantaged account might not be the best solution for an oilfield worker who has to live with big booms and busts within his industry.

A unionized postal worker with a pension plan might not need low risk/low growth bond fund ETFs. ect.

A financial planner should be able to build a plan based on your personal circumstances not shove whatever products they feel like selling down your throat.


----------



## Beauner

As someone who is currently working towards a finance degree, this thread proves to me that I still have a looooong way to go before I completely understand Fiance 

The book looks like a great tool though, so thanks for that.


----------



## montreal

Beauner said:


> As someone who is currently working towards a finance degree, this thread proves to me that I still have a looooong way to go before I completely understand Fiance
> 
> The book looks like a great tool though, so thanks for that.




I've been doing this over 20 years and I learn new stuff all the time. There's so much to learn overall, but just try to get the basic things down first. Experience is a great teacher, but it can also be a costly one in this line of work.


----------



## Plural

I know absolutely nothing about the stock markets. Would lose all my money if went there alone.


----------



## tony d

I don't play the stock market but for anyone who does I suggest doing your research and invest your money wisely and to know when to get out.


----------



## Thucydides

montreal said:


> They are much more then just ebola, they also have good exposure to the Hep B market as well as a cancer drug (I don't know too much about that one though) as well as other drugs. The ebola human trails were put on hold until the breakout, they have had the most success of any other company in terms of primate and humans survival rates (100%) but yes ebola is very much traded by the news and the story is now all but over from the look so it. ZMapp had some success but they are private owned and it takes them a very long time to create the drug.
> 
> As I said bio-tech's are very risky, they carry a huge risk-reward ratio, they aren't for your average investor but as you continue to learn it can be a great money maker if you know what you are doing. I'm in no way suggesting you buy it, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.
> 
> Yes it's possible to enter the field at 31, or 41 for that matter depending on what you want to do as financial advisors will always be in demand and they often don't care what you know but if you can sell.




Thanks. This is encouraging news about entering the financial sector. I'm going to begin signing up for some courses this week. 

I only did very little research on the company, but i'll continue to read. Do you have a price in your head that you'd be wanting to get back in at? I would wait until some shorts fell off before buying, in my opinion. I'm going to follow this stock closely, and read more about the biotech sector. I love the reward factor of a good company. I'm still young enough where I don't mind a little risk as long as I am confident in the long term outlook. 

What is your view on the mid-term/long-term oil outlook?


----------



## The Joker*

stingo said:


> Thanks. This is encouraging news about entering the financial sector. I'm going to begin signing up for some courses this week.
> 
> I only did very little research on the company, but i'll continue to read. Do you have a price in your head that you'd be wanting to get back in at? I would wait until some shorts fell off before buying, in my opinion. I'm going to follow this stock closely, and read more about the biotech sector. I love the reward factor of a good company. I'm still young enough where I don't mind a little risk as long as I am confident in the long term outlook.
> 
> What is your view on the mid-term/long-term oil outlook?



Short term - poor
Longterm (years) - good
Longterm (many years) - poor


----------



## Thucydides

Also, do you follow the American banks at all? I've had Bank of America on my watchlist for awhile..


----------



## The Joker*

There's far better buying opportunities right now than American banks.


----------



## trueblue9441

does anyone use robinhood to trade?


----------



## Beauner

montreal said:


> I've been doing this over 20 years and I learn new stuff all the time. There's so much to learn overall, but just try to get the basic things down first. Experience is a great teacher, but it can also be a costly one in this line of work.




I always figured that it would take years and years to be adequately knowledgeable. Also I would bet that I learn a lot more after I graduate/at my first job than I do in school. But the basics are definitely a good place to start


----------



## Thucydides

trueblue9441 said:


> does anyone use robinhood to trade?




I do all my trading through my banks web broker. Very easy to use and understand.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Thanks. This is encouraging news about entering the financial sector. I'm going to begin signing up for some courses this week.
> 
> I only did very little research on the company, but i'll continue to read. Do you have a price in your head that you'd be wanting to get back in at? I would wait until some shorts fell off before buying, in my opinion. I'm going to follow this stock closely, and read more about the biotech sector. I love the reward factor of a good company. I'm still young enough where I don't mind a little risk as long as I am confident in the long term outlook.
> 
> What is your view on the mid-term/long-term oil outlook?




good luck with the courses!

I keep an eye on the chart, if it keeps bleeding then I will grow very concerned. If it falls through 10 then the flood gates could open so I would watch it very closely to see if support holds or if it turns up being a falling knife which you never want to try and catch on the way down but once support comes in you can pick it up very cheap. bio-techs are so risky because they can have explosive moves in either direction at any time so it really helps if you know how to use options to hedge your investment. Puts or calls are a must if you have a lot on the line (a lot will vary from person to person)

If support holds around this level then I might step it and pick up a small amount of say 500 shares and see how it does over time. For me it's about reading and reacting to what I see so I don't know what I am going to see until I see it. If that makes sense. 

I've done really well with oil in the past. mid term I think oil will be up from these levels (meaning 6 months from now) and long term I like oil, not as much as I used to as I was heavy into oil back before it broke out when oil in the 40's was unheard of. I do think we'll see 100 oil in the future, but when is hard to say as I have not paid anywhere near as much attention to oil as I haven't like the entire commodities sector and I am heavily into bio-techs which take up a ton of my time along with the MMJ sector which right now is the wild wild west of investing but medical pot is going to only get much bigger as it's going to be a huge money making sector in the future imo.



stingo said:


> Also, do you follow the American banks at all? I've had Bank of America on my watchlist for awhile..




I've worked for several of them. JPMorgan, Citi, Mellon. I did really well getting in and out of Citi, I like JPM but the price is too high. I think GS is the best but from knowing traders and the stories they tell me, GS is very dirty so I won't touch them. I am not too fond of bank stocks right now in general as I still worry about their exposure to the housing market in the US as well as student loan debt being extremely high. If Citi dropped into the low 40's I might buy back in as I know their chart the best out of all the banks.



Beauner said:


> I always figured that it would take years and years to be adequately knowledgeable. Also I would bet that I learn a lot more after I graduate/at my first job than I do in school. But the basics are definitely a good place to start




Well adequately knowledgeable is going to vary from person to person. I look at it as more like once you have the basic knowledge you will just be adding to it layer by layer with each passing year of experience.


----------



## Beauner

montreal said:


> Well adequately knowledgeable is going to vary from person to person. I look at it as more like once you have the basic knowledge you will just be adding to it layer by layer with each passing year of experience.




I just meant knowledgeable enough to be good at whatever job I end up at. But that's certainly a good way to look at things. 

On topic though, I don't have a ton to mess around with but I'm putting some in a mutual fund soon. Once I get enough I'd love to start trading on my own but that's still probably a few years away. In the meantime I use Investopedia's stock simulator


----------



## montreal

Beauner said:


> I just meant knowledgeable enough to be good at whatever job I end up at. But that's certainly a good way to look at things.
> 
> On topic though, I don't have a ton to mess around with but I'm putting some in a mutual fund soon. Once I get enough I'd love to start trading on my own but that's still probably a few years away. In the meantime I use Investopedia's stock simulator




I'd recommend learning through paper trades first. This way you can't lose any money but you get to experience just what it would be like if you were in the market. By paper trades, for those that don't know, you simply start with an amount that you think you might end up trading with in the future. Then you research your stock, once you find one you want to buy, you write down the price and the amount of shares you hope to buy. Then you track it over months and see how you would have done. Never hurts to do this a lot but can hurt a lot if you don't learn to crawl before trying to sprint. I know it may sound stupid to some but it can be a very useful learning tool if you are honest with yourself and put the work in.


----------



## Tim Calhoun

tony d said:


> I don't play the stock market but for anyone who does I suggest doing your research and invest your money wisely and to know when to get out.




Now that is some truly groundbreaking investment advice.


----------



## The Joker*

Tim Calhoun said:


> Now that is some truly groundbreaking investment advice.



lirl

"If you're going to play the market, do some research."

Thanks, tips.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Been waiting for this thread!

Been investing heavily for the past five or so years. Recently been in more of a selling mood...never a bad thing to take some profit. I've had fun with it (really become a huge hobby for me) and I've been reasonably successful so far. Success is sometimes fleeting in the market, so I'll enjoy it while I can lol.

Also, Ryan Atwood, I've owned BAC for a fair amount of time. It is SO TEMPTING with that valuation, but as I've learned this company always manages to screw it up somehow.

I'm making a little money on it, but the is stock nowhere near where I thought it would be.

I personally really like oil right now for investing. It's not as low as it was, but lots of good options for this industry still IMO.

If you want to get involved, but are scared/nervous about investing...invest in index funds. Proven way over the long term that will very likely earn you a decent earnings. 

The number one thing I've learned is never to panic sell...nothing wrong with getting rid of a loser (we all have them at some point, me included. Had to sell of Petrobras at a significant loss...that one really hurt), but only sell if you truly think the stock is done. History shows that over the long haul stocks generally have peaks and valleys...sometimes have to stick with a loser for long periods of time, but patience usually pays off in this market. Also, I find that I don't really truly understand stock until I watch it for at least three months. The key really is patience and research.

Any industries you guys particularly recommend right now? Small cap seems to be the way to go...valuations are so high. Not familiar enough with Bio-Tech to invest heavily in it, but good on you for participating in that. Can certainly make some big profits.


----------



## montreal

Ducksforcup said:


> Been waiting for this thread!
> 
> Been investing heavily for the past five or so years. Recently been in more of a selling mood...*never a bad thing to take some profit*. I've had fun with it (really become a huge hobby for me) and I've been reasonably successful so far. Success is sometimes fleeting in the market, so I'll enjoy it while I can lol.
> 
> Also, Ryan Atwood, I've owned BAC for a fair amount of time. It is SO TEMPTING with that valuation, but as I've learned this company always manages to screw it up somehow.
> 
> I'm making a little money on it, but the is stock nowhere near where I thought it would be.
> 
> I personally really like oil right now for investing. It's not as low as it was, but lots of good options for this industry still IMO.
> 
> If you want to get involved, but are scared/nervous about investing...*invest in index funds. Proven way over the long term that will very likely earn you a decent earnings*.
> 
> *The number one thing I've learned is never to panic sell*...nothing wrong with getting rid of a loser (we all have them at some point, me included. Had to sell of Petrobras at a significant loss...that one really hurt), but only sell if you truly think the stock is done. History shows that over the long haul stocks generally have peaks and valleys...sometimes have to stick with a loser for long periods of time, but patience usually pays off in this market. Also, I find that I don't really truly understand stock until I watch it for at least three months. The key really is patience and research.
> 
> Any industries you guys particularly recommend right now? Small cap seems to be the way to go...valuations are so high. Not familiar enough with Bio-Tech to invest heavily in it, but good on you for participating in that. Can certainly make some big profits.




some good points/tips, I bolded the best ones. 

I almost bought BAC at 5 bucks, but I already owned Citi and they were a rival so I sat that one out, oh well. I still worry about their exposure to lawsuits so I won't go near it unless lots of other things I like fall apart badly. 

The market wants you to panic and sell just as they want you to panic and buy into the storm. Knowing when to get in and especially get out is not easy and even the best in the business will screw it up. If it was easy everyone would do but as you said it never hurts to take profit and I can't stress that one enough cause it's extremely true. 

valuations are high, but with the summer months often you see stocks run flat so if you bide your time you might find some value out there. I am way overweight small cap bio-tech/pharma stocks but I don't recommend them to anyone that isn't a pro but they can be a lot of fun to follow and a good learning tool to both the upside and downside. Like todays action is EBIO, but that's how bad it can get when your drug fails phase III. 

One sector I have started to look at is the social media, was thinking of taking a position in LNKD as it's been hammered, had a small amount of twitter but got out in the 50's by luck as I just didn't how it was trading (did much better with facebook in the 40's wish I bought more) The sector has been getting hit so if it keeps dropping I might circle back.


----------



## Ducksforcup

montreal said:


> some good points/tips, I bolded the best ones.
> 
> I almost bought BAC at 5 bucks, but I already owned Citi and they were a rival so I sat that one out, oh well. I still worry about their exposure to lawsuits so I won't go near it unless lots of other things I like fall apart badly.
> 
> The market wants you to panic and sell just as they want you to panic and buy into the storm. Knowing when to get in and especially get out is not easy and even the best in the business will screw it up. If it was easy everyone would do but as you said it never hurts to take profit and I can't stress that one enough cause it's extremely true.
> 
> valuations are high, but with the summer months often you see stocks run flat so if you bide your time you might find some value out there. I am way overweight small cap bio-tech/pharma stocks but I don't recommend them to anyone that isn't a pro but they can be a lot of fun to follow and a good learning tool to both the upside and downside. Like todays action is EBIO, but that's how bad it can get when your drug fails phase III.
> 
> *One sector I have started to look at is the social media, was thinking of taking a position in LNKD as it's been hammered, had a small amount of twitter but got out in the 50's by luck as I just didn't how it was trading (did much better with facebook in the 40's wish I bought more) The sector has been getting hit so if it keeps dropping I might circle back.*




Some good points. You def. know your stuff. I am still learning every day...it is such a fascinating endeavor.

And I have been thinking about social media as well. Not the biggest fan of LNKD (Twitter has been hammered as well), but I do like Facebook. That's what I tried to do with BAC in terms of trying to take advantage of big dips...looks like it is starting to pay off (knock on wood lol). SO MANY litigations.

Nice call on FB getting it in the 40's...that's a nice profit for you. Wish I'd been as prescient.


----------



## The Joker*

_You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy._


----------



## montreal

Ducksforcup said:


> Some good points. You def. know your stuff. I am still learning every day...it is such a fascinating endeavor.
> 
> And I have been thinking about social media as well. Not the biggest fan of LNKD (Twitter has been hammered as well), but I do like Facebook. That's what I tried to do with BAC in terms of trying to take advantage of big dips...looks like it is starting to pay off (knock on wood lol). SO MANY litigations.
> 
> Nice call on FB getting it in the 40's...that's a nice profit for you. Wish I'd been as prescient.




There's two things I know in life, hockey and stocks! I started thinking that Twitter might be facing future lawsuits after I heard about Ashely Judd trying to get people arrested for their threats so I dumped it and within a couple days it tanked. Don't know if I would ever buy again. FB I did well on the stock aside from not buying more but messed up the calls as I just missed the run which would have easily tripled my profits. But buy/selling calls and puts is very, very difficult. 

When LNKD fell through 200, I thought I would stay away for a little since it broke a key technical level, I wait and see where the support comes in. To me that is so important, you really want to wait and see just where the support is, it doesn't mean you still can't get burned but better to have a feel for where it seems to be bottoming out at. But that is something that can take many years of trading to develop.


----------



## Ducksforcup

montreal said:


> There's two things I know in life, hockey and stocks! I started thinking that Twitter might be facing future lawsuits after I heard about Ashely Judd trying to get people arrested for their threats so I dumped it and within a couple days it tanked. Don't know if I would ever buy again. FB I did well on the stock aside from not buying more but messed up the calls as I just missed the run which would have easily tripled my profits. But buy/selling calls and puts is very, very difficult.
> 
> When LNKD fell through 200, I thought I would stay away for a little since it broke a key technical level, I wait and see where the support comes in. To me that is so important, you really want to wait and see just where the support is, it doesn't mean you still can't get burned but better to have a feel for where it seems to be bottoming out at. But that is something that can take many years of trading to develop.




For sure, you can look at charts all you want, but you don't get a _feel_ for the stock unless you watch it for some extended period.

Haven't even bothered getting into the Puts/Calls segment of trading, but I've been starting to look into it. If I'm honest, I've been very lucky...when I first started let's just say my investment strategy wasn't exactly complex. "I recognize Microsoft...let's buy that!"

It's come a long, long way...

I bought some BABA and O recently. BABA for the long term and O for the stability/yield. Bought both on dips. The BABA earnings report was a blessing...figured this counter-fitting issue was overblown (although it's still a major issue of course).

What's your favorite metric...like P/E, P/B etc? And how much do you take the yield into account?


----------



## hockeyfish

I've dabbled a bit, but am certainly looking to do much more. Of course, time and extra cash are holding my back. Right now, killing debt and investing in myself are higher priorities. 

I've done some basic trading recently though. Bought into Lithium as I see great demand as we eventually move into electric vehicles and away from massive power grids. Also bought into GoPro.


----------



## montreal

Ducksforcup said:


> For sure, you can look at charts all you want, but you don't get a _feel_ for the stock unless you watch it for some extended period.
> 
> Haven't even bothered getting into the Puts/Calls segment of trading, but I've been starting to look into it. If I'm honest, I've been very lucky...when I first started let's just say my investment strategy wasn't exactly complex. "I recognize Microsoft...let's buy that!"
> 
> It's come a long, long way...
> 
> I bought some BABA and O recently. BABA for the long term and O for the stability/yield. Bought both on dips. The BABA earnings report was a blessing...figured this counter-fitting issue was overblown (although it's still a major issue of course).
> 
> What's your favorite metric...like P/E, P/B etc? And how much do you take the yield into account?




It was the same for me, I got into stocks at a younger age back in High School. I didn't have a clue what I was doing but got lucky as I made money on every trade so I think that's why I got hooked as it was just seemed like the way to go. Took a long time to be able to trade options and while I use them to hedge it can still go very wrong. If you get involved with puts/calls just be very, very careful. 

I don't trust BABA so I stayed out, have had a few China stocks over the years but mainly I prefer to stay clear. I know it's not the smartest move since their econ has been killing it but I just don't trust anything I read from there. 

I don't know if I have a favorite metric, I know the one I hate is P/E, refuse to ever look at it. I like ROE, debt to cash ratio, short interest (a must to look at), the 50 and 200 moving averages.


----------



## montreal

hockeyfish said:


> I've dabbled a bit, but am certainly looking to do much more. Of course, time and extra cash are holding my back. Right now, killing debt and investing in myself are higher priorities.
> 
> I've done some basic trading recently though. Bought into Lithium as I see great demand as we eventually move into electric vehicles and away from massive power grids. Also bought into GoPro.




nothing wrong with killing debt and investing in your self. I looked at GoPro after it got hammered, have done really well with TASR which makes the body cams for police so needless to say that one has easily been one of my best calls. Kicking my self for not pulling the trigger on TSLA at 170 since it's 250 but that's nothing compared to the buy I passed on for Netflix at 57, hot damn did I miss a massive run up.


----------



## hockeyfish

montreal said:


> nothing wrong with killing debt and investing in your self. I looked at GoPro after it got hammered, have done really well with TASR which makes the body cams for police so needless to say that one has easily been one of my best calls. Kicking my self for not pulling the trigger on TSLA at 170 since it's 250 but that's nothing compared to the buy I passed on for Netflix at 57, hot damn did I miss a massive run up.




Sure, it's easy to look at a chart at a low and a high and think what if you had perfect timing. We'd all be billionairs. 

Anyway, I feel I'm way ahead of the game as at least I think about investing and have kept my debt relatively low. Granted, I don't make much money from my job and don't own anything nice or go anywhere, but still. 

Considering getting in on Fitbit when it hits. Could be interesting.


----------



## Ducksforcup

hockeyfish said:


> Sure, it's easy to look at a chart at a low and a high and think what if you had perfect timing. We'd all be billionairs.
> 
> Anyway, I feel I'm way ahead of the game as at least I think about investing and have kept my debt relatively low. Granted, I don't make much money from my job and don't own anything nice or go anywhere, but still.
> 
> Considering getting in on Fitbit when it hits. Could be interesting.




The younger we start, the better off we will be. So good for you sir! Nice to have that money working for ya.

And yep, we all have "those" stories.  

I seriously considered FB when it was near its all time low (around 12 bucks).

Mistakes were made.

And montreal, ya China is def. iffy in regards to information, but I just feel really strongly about BABA. It's scale alone makes me confident. I bought it after the big dip from the first earnings...it's been a little of a rough ride, but it's clawing its way back up. 

I think that is what hooked me as well (my relative success). In hindsight, I realize I was very lucky to start in 2009. Stocks were still quite low and more than fairly valued.

Good call on short interest...if other people are concerned, you should be too. My main thing is debt level...if it is too crippling, I tend to stay away.


----------



## Radek27

More into real estate investing however I have been thinking about trying out REITS. 

Anyone have an opinion on REITS good or bad?


----------



## Thucydides

Radek27 said:


> More into real estate investing however I have been thinking about trying out REITS.
> 
> Anyone have an opinion on REITS good or bad?




I'm invested in two reits. I like them. Not a lot of growth or volatility, but that's what I wanted. I bought them for their monthly dividend. You're getting the benefits of owning real estate without the headache of finding tenants, etc. Companies are legally obligated to pay out 90% of their earnings in dividends to shareholders.

Pick a good reit in a good location and I think you'll do okay. 

Eventually I'd like to have about 50k strictly in reits.


----------



## kilgro

My two favorite stocks i own are disney and under armour. Got myself some Disney at 94 and UA at 67 then again at 77 recently. Also own fb, twtr, tsla, scty and bank of ireland


----------



## Whiplash27

Got in ADXS at $13.5 or so. Doing quite well .


----------



## Thucydides

Averaged down on some oil stocks yesterday. 

Going to do some buying next week.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Radek27 said:


> More into real estate investing however I have been thinking about trying out REITS.
> 
> Anyone have an opinion on REITS good or bad?




This is pertinent because I quite literally just bought one (Stock Ticker "O")

I like them a lot...very stable and by law they have to give most of their profits to shareholders.

Probably aren't going to make huge capital gains, but it's a nice play to make in this kind of environment with high valuations IMO. It's a conservative play, but that's ok!

Nice explanation of REITs (not that you need it, but a good tool nevertheless).

https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-basics/what-reit


----------



## Ducksforcup

kilgro said:


> My two favorite stocks i own are disney and under armour. Got myself some Disney at 94 and UA at 67 then again at 77 recently. Also own fb, twtr, tsla, scty and bank of ireland




Bought DIS about two years ago...haven't looked back since.

Man this company just prints money. And with Star Wars coming out...I still think this company has room to make even more capital gains IMO.

Nice call on Under Armour...that's one of those ones I heard about a little too late. Congrats man.  All I hear is good things about the management.


----------



## kilgro

Ducksforcup said:


> Bought DIS about two years ago...haven't looked back since.
> 
> Man this company just prints money. And with Star Wars coming out...I still think this company has room to make even more capital gains IMO.
> 
> Nice call on Under Armour...that's one of those ones I heard about a little too late. Congrats man.  All I hear is good things about the management.





Yea it's gonna be a fun ride this year with Disney. The avengers 2 has been killing it too and lots of other stuff in the works. Hard to find anything to complain about with Under armour. just keeps chugging along. My parents have killed it on UA


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> Averaged down on some oil stocks yesterday.
> 
> Going to do some buying next week.




Oil stocks in general aren't as low as they once were a couple months ago, but I still think you can find some value in this industry. 

Agree with your assessment. Any particular ones you looking at more than others?


----------



## montreal

hockeyfish said:


> Sure, it's easy to look at a chart at a low and a high and think what if you had perfect timing. We'd all be billionairs.
> 
> Anyway, I feel I'm way ahead of the game as at least I think about investing and have kept my debt relatively low. Granted, I don't make much money from my job and don't own anything nice or go anywhere, but still.
> 
> Considering getting in on Fitbit when it hits. Could be interesting.




yea but when you do this for a living it really hurts to see such huge profits pass you by. At the same time you just have to chalk it up, you can't be right all the time. 

I don't know what Fitbit is but I will look into it.



Ducksforcup said:


> The younger we start, the better off we will be. So good for you sir! Nice to have that money working for ya.
> 
> And yep, we all have "those" stories.
> 
> I seriously considered FB when it was near its all time low (around 12 bucks).
> 
> Mistakes were made.
> 
> And montreal, ya China is def. iffy in regards to information, but I just feel really strongly about BABA. It's scale alone makes me confident. I bought it after the big dip from the first earnings...it's been a little of a rough ride, but it's clawing its way back up.
> 
> I think that is what hooked me as well (my relative success). In hindsight, I realize I was very lucky to start in 2009. Stocks were still quite low and more than fairly valued.
> 
> Good call on short interest...if other people are concerned, you should be too. My main thing is debt level...if it is too crippling, I tend to stay away.




I had considered buying some Yahoo shares prior to the IPO of BABA, but I wasn't 100% sold on yahoo either so I passed. 

As for debt level, it depends on the sector and what kind of rev they are projected to do in the future. That's why bio-techs are so difficult since projecting a few years out is so hard to do. I should have made a killing today on one of my top picks, ACHN as they just announced huge news last night but instead it got hammered likely due to shorts trying to take advantage before it runs up. thought about buying more but already have a lot invested in it, still thinking about it. 



Radek27 said:


> More into real estate investing however I have been thinking about trying out REITS.
> 
> Anyone have an opinion on REITS good or bad?




I've had REITS in the past and done well with them in the past, if you get a good div on it all the better. 



kilgro said:


> My two favorite stocks i own are disney and under armour. Got myself some Disney at 94 and UA at 67 then again at 77 recently. Also own fb, twtr, tsla, scty and bank of ireland




My first two stocks were DIS and Snapple. I got DIS at 39 and sold it at 110, have recommend them a lot in the past to people that look for more safety as DIS is just a well run company that makes money.


----------



## Cody Webster

Pay.


----------



## Thucydides

Ducksforcup said:


> Oil stocks in general aren't as low as they once were a couple months ago, but I still think you can find some value in this industry.
> 
> Agree with your assessment. Any particular ones you looking at more than others?




Adding to current positions in legacy oil and gas, & crescent point energy. Not opening anything new. I am comfortable buying at these levels. 

I believe Goldmann is shorting oil so I take everything they say with a grain of salt.

My next new position, I think, will be Wells Fargo. At some point. 

What about you? Any companies on your watch list?


----------



## Thucydides

Question. What would you more experienced investors do in this situation. 

Let's say you bought 2000 shares in oil company. For 1. Oil company has great assets and are bought by bigger oil company for 7 per share. Congrats you just made 12,000! 

Do you sell immediately take profits and diversify your portfolio with it? Or do you wait?


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> Question. What would you more experienced investors do in this situation.
> 
> Let's say you bought 2000 shares in oil company. For 1. Oil company has great assets and are bought by bigger oil company for 7 per share. Congrats you just made 12,000!
> 
> Do you sell immediately take profits and diversify your portfolio with it? Or do you wait?




Depends really...do you think it has a realistic shot of going up?

If so, keep it.

If not, never a bad thing to take a profit and run. If you are feeling any doubt, I would just sell it personally.


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> Adding to current positions in legacy oil and gas, & crescent point energy. Not opening anything new. I am comfortable buying at these levels.
> 
> I believe Goldmann is shorting oil so I take everything they say with a grain of salt.
> 
> My next new position, I think, will be Wells Fargo. At some point.
> 
> What about you? Any companies on your watch list?




Been following WFC ever since the stress tests were last released (I know a little late on the ball lol). 

Think it is one of the better run banks in North America. The valuation is kinda high right now though I would say.

I have a big watch list...the ones I am most excited about are PHO (water etf) and JACK (jack in the box). I really think water will be treated as a commodity in the future...want to get in on this industry and an ETF seems like a good way to do it. As far as JACK, I just think it's a smart company with a good niche...late night food at affordable prices. Very well run company with excellent marketing. Also, John Deere and PG as relatively safe stocks. I like DE especially since it is a pretty good value right now IMO.

I'm always looking for new stocks to start watching...I'll take any suggestions from anyone.  I learn more each day...that's what makes this field so fascinating.


----------



## KareemTrustfund

#InvestInTheFund


----------



## Thucydides

Ducksforcup said:


> Been following WFC ever since the stress tests were last released (I know a little late on the ball lol).
> 
> Think it is one of the better run banks in North America. The valuation is kinda high right now though I would say.
> 
> I have a big watch list...the ones I am most excited about are PHO (water etf) and JACK (jack in the box). I really think water will be treated as a commodity in the future...want to get in on this industry and an ETF seems like a good way to do it. As far as JACK, I just think it's a smart company with a good niche...late night food at affordable prices. Very well run company with excellent marketing. Also, John Deere and PG as relatively safe stocks. I like DE especially since it is a pretty good value right now IMO.
> 
> I'm always looking for new stocks to start watching...I'll take any suggestions from anyone.  I learn more each day...that's what makes this field so fascinating.




I'm going to buy into that water ETF at some point. That's very forward thinking, and smart. 

I'm invested mainly in the Canadian oil sector right now. I don't know how interested you are in investing there , but I really like Kelt exploration. Kel.to 

If, and when, the oil sector turns around, there's some nice money to be made with some of the depressed levels right now. Worth checking out for sure.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Question. What would you more experienced investors do in this situation.
> 
> Let's say you bought 2000 shares in oil company. For 1. Oil company has great assets and are bought by bigger oil company for 7 per share. Congrats you just made 12,000!
> 
> Do you sell immediately take profits and diversify your portfolio with it? Or do you wait?




I'd have to look at the company closely but the easy answer is to take the profits. Or you could sell like 1500 shares so if it goes up more you still have some skin in, if it goes down some you reduced your risk exposure by a lot.



Ducksforcup said:


> I have a big watch list...the ones I am most excited about are PHO (water etf) and JACK (jack in the box). I really think water will be treated as a commodity in the future...want to get in on this industry and an ETF seems like a good way to do it. As far as JACK, I just think it's a smart company with a good niche...late night food at affordable prices. Very well run company with excellent marketing. Also, John Deere and PG as relatively safe stocks. I like DE especially since it is a pretty good value right now IMO.
> 
> I'm always looking for new stocks to start watching...I'll take any suggestions from anyone.  I learn more each day...that's what makes this field so fascinating.




I've heard good things about PNC from people that have worked there but I never looked into buying the stock.

I agree on water, used to own philadelphia suburban water which is now called aqua America. Got out of it a long time ago, will get back in some day. I never followed JACK but it's insane what some of these food chains go for these days. chipotle is a monster.


----------



## KingLB

Ducksforcup said:


> Been waiting for this thread!
> 
> The number one thing I've learned is never to panic sell...nothing wrong with getting rid of a loser (we all have them at some point, me included. Had to sell of Petrobras at a significant loss...that one really hurt), but only sell if you truly think the stock is done. History shows that over the long haul stocks generally have peaks and valleys...sometimes have to stick with a loser for long periods of time, but patience usually pays off in this market. Also, I find that I don't really truly understand stock until I watch it for at least three months. The key really is patience and research.






Ducksforcup said:


> Mistakes were made.
> 
> Good call on short interest...if other people are concerned, you should be too. My main thing is debt level...if it is too crippling, I tend to stay away.




Ha! I was gonna ask if you were ready to get back into Petrobras....but think you answered that.


----------



## hitman9172

Radek27 said:


> More into real estate investing however I have been thinking about trying out REITS.
> 
> Anyone have an opinion on REITS good or bad?




Not a huge fan of REITs. They're not nearly as tax efficient as owning real estate yourself (if you can afford it). Also, there is no way REITs will be able to sell a big chunk of the properties they are comprised of in any short-term period. REIT values seem to be based on overly optimistic assumptions.


----------



## KingLB

stingo said:


> I do all my trading through my banks web broker. Very easy to use and understand.




Curious how much per trade? When I first started, I asked my bank....they wanted $30 a trade!!!


----------



## Thucydides

KingLB said:


> Curious how much per trade? When I first started, I asked my bank....they wanted $30 a trade!!!




9.99 per trade - That's with TD. 
CIBC I know has 6.99 per trade.


----------



## Thucydides

montreal said:


> I'd have to look at the company closely but the easy answer is to take the profits. Or you could sell like 1500 shares so if it goes up more you still have some skin in, if it goes down some you reduced your risk exposure by a lot.




Thank you. This is my line of thinking as well. I'm going to sell a large chunk of the shares if and when it happens with this rumoured buyout. I could diversify that cash into safer stocks/index funds and reward myself with a trip. 

But I think it would eat at me if I sold the stock, and it went up to 10 bucks (What it was before oil crashed) per share, knowing I could have made $18,000 instead of $12,000.

That's the intensity, and "fun" of the stock market though.


----------



## Thucydides

anyone looking at the shopify ipo being launched today? 17 bucks a share.


----------



## Ducksforcup

KingLB said:


> Ha! I was gonna ask if you were ready to get back into Petrobras....but think you answered that.




LOL nope. 

Biggest mistake I've ever made. Government run corporation...something I never want to be involved with ever again. They have responsibilities to the Brazilian government/people that hamstring what would otherwise be a world-class company.

I've learned from it though...honestly it was probably good for me to have that titanic of a failure. Relatively cheap mistake.

Ended well...sold it at a huge loss and invested the remain moneys into DIS...it's worked out.


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> anyone looking at the shopify ipo being launched today? 17 bucks a share.




Try and avoid those IPOS as much as I can. Just so crazy.

It's so easy to get caught up in it all though. I couldn't help myself with BABA (though I didn't buy any, I was following it like a hawk).

Generally though just a good idea to stay away from what I've seen. Just too many unknowns IMO.

I checked out that Canadian oil stock by the way...I am intrigued. Thanks for the insight.


----------



## Thucydides

kelt? 

Great company. Tons and tons of insider ownership. Great management . They recently closed the acquisition of artek exploration. And they have a ton of experience with the Montney. 

Really like them.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Thank you. This is my line of thinking as well. I'm going to sell a large chunk of the shares if and when it happens with this rumoured buyout. I could diversify that cash into safer stocks/index funds and reward myself with a trip.
> 
> But I think it would eat at me if I sold the stock, and it went up to 10 bucks (What it was before oil crashed) per share, knowing I could have made $18,000 instead of $12,000.
> 
> That's the intensity, and "fun" of the stock market though.




What I tell people in that situation, speaking from experience, you will be a lot madder if you don't sell any shares and it goes down a good bit vs not selling any shares and it goes up a good bit. At least for most. But it's all about what you are trying to do, the chart, the fundamentals, the sector, the economy, how the overall market has been doing. Taking at least some profits off the table is usually the smart move but it would also depend on the factors I listed and your gut feel for the stock. It's easy to get caught up in greed and want more, as I've done that a lot of times over the years, sometimes it worked out better other times it didn't (or I had a long wait to get back to those levels).

I talked a college buddy into buy Amazon at 30 bucks years ago, this person didn't know much about trading but he had some cash to invest. When it hit 300 I said either take some profits or sell it all as it was up huge. In hindsight it would have gone much better had he not sold out since they just got a price target of 520. You just never know though how things are going to end up going. Surprises good or bad can always be right around the corner. 



stingo said:


> anyone looking at the shopify ipo being launched today? 17 bucks a share.




I usually don't buy ipo's, I did well with Visa's but often I will just sit back and track them for a little. That's what I did on Facebook and Twitter.


----------



## Thucydides

Always good advice. Thank you. 

The company in question is legacy oil and gas. Pretty sure there's an announcement coming shortly. I threw 3600 at the stock , thinking it would be a good play when the price was 1.80 , as I liked their assets. The price today did a huge run up on a lot of volume - 4 million shares traded within an hour or two. Seen the same thing with pacific rubiales. 

I've already doubled my money so I'd be happy with that if worse comes to worse.


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> Always good advice. Thank you.
> 
> The company in question is legacy oil and gas. Pretty sure there's an announcement coming shortly. I threw 3600 at the stock , thinking it would be a good play when the price was 1.80 , as I liked their assets. The price today did a huge run up on a lot of volume - 4 million shares traded within an hour or two. Seen the same thing with pacific rubiales.
> 
> I've already doubled my money so I'd be happy with that if worse comes to worse.




Very impressive. Well done. A speculative move to be sure, but it seems like you did your HW. 

As far as oil, I've been looking a lot at MPC lately. Also own shares of SLB.

And montreal, concur with stingo you are certainly giving excellent advice. That story about your friend...sure that guy loves you now. What a capital gains! Ya he missed out on some more, but the way I like to look at it...it could just as easily have gone the other way. Better to sell if you have some doubts. Nothing wrong with taking a profit and investing that money elsewhere. Like you said, you just never know what is going to happen (and that's what makes this so exciting).


----------



## The Joker*

I got a small allotment in the Shopify IPO (not small, but small compared to what I requested). Still holding, with a stop-loss on it. Will see how it moves for the next few weeks if it doesn't get stopped out.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Always good advice. Thank you.
> 
> The company in question is legacy oil and gas. Pretty sure there's an announcement coming shortly. I threw 3600 at the stock , thinking it would be a good play when the price was 1.80 , as I liked their assets. The price today did a huge run up on a lot of volume - 4 million shares traded within an hour or two. Seen the same thing with pacific rubiales.
> 
> I've already doubled my money so I'd be happy with that if worse comes to worse.




I hadn't heard of legacy before but just looking it over, looks like a good call by you. Looks like there's support at the 2.50 level, if it breaks out above he 3 dollar level it will be interesting to see what range it moves into. I did really well a several years back with an oil company from Norway, was called Stolt but now is called Subsea7 (Subcy) bought in in the 3's sold out at 13 and bought back in around 10 and sold out again at different levels up to 30. Haven't looked at it in a long time but might start keeping an eye, just not really sure where oil is headed though in the short term and I've got my hands full with so many bio-techs for now. 



Ducksforcup said:


> As far as oil, I've been looking a lot at MPC lately. Also own shares of SLB.
> 
> And montreal, concur with stingo you are certainly giving excellent advice. That story about your friend...sure that guy loves you now. What a capital gains! Ya he missed out on some more, but the way I like to look at it...it could just as easily have gone the other way. Better to sell if you have some doubts. Nothing wrong with taking a profit and investing that money elsewhere. Like you said, you just never know what is going to happen (and that's what makes this so exciting).




I used to own SLB, sold it back when oil was around 100, did well although I should have bought back in as it has moved back to the 90's quickly. Solid company that is well run and makes money.


----------



## Thucydides

Ducksforcup said:


> Very impressive. Well done. A speculative move to be sure, but it seems like you did your HW.
> 
> As far as oil, I've been looking a lot at MPC lately. Also own shares of SLB.
> 
> And montreal, concur with stingo you are certainly giving excellent advice. That story about your friend...sure that guy loves you now. What a capital gains! Ya he missed out on some more, but the way I like to look at it...it could just as easily have gone the other way. Better to sell if you have some doubts. Nothing wrong with taking a profit and investing that money elsewhere. Like you said, you just never know what is going to happen (and that's what makes this so exciting).




Haha thanks. I had been watching the stock as it fell from 4 bucks all the way down to 1.17 (should have bought in then) but I was new and greed kicked in, and I wanted and expected it to go lower. Human nature. I knew there was a lot of inside ownership , and that they owned it at 10 bucks a share. The assets looked great , so I made a move. Worked out okay. 

Thanks for your input on legacy Montreal. Appreciate that. It bottomed around 2.56 the other day and I was going to buy some more but told myself to wait. Has a real hard time holding 3 bucks and fell to 2.99 right at the close today. Haha. See what happens tomorrow . I don't expect it to be too busy with it being Memorial Day in the states, but I am anxious to hear more about the sale. I just hope it's not another head fake, but with articles in the globe and mail I don't think it is this time. 

ducks for cup (or anyone ) what would you consider buying levels for Wells Fargo? Low 50s?


----------



## Ducksforcup

Don't know about an exact price target for WFC, but if it gets back down to that area of 50 bucks I'd start thinking about it. I don't think it will make a killing capital gains wise, but there isn't a more solid bank to buy IMO.

Its tough because at this point no one truly knows when the Fed will raise interest rates. The banks more than any other industry would benefit immensely from such a move of course.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Haha thanks. I had been watching the stock as it fell from 4 bucks all the way down to 1.17 (should have bought in then) but I was new and greed kicked in, and I wanted and expected it to go lower. Human nature. I knew there was a lot of inside ownership , and that they owned it at 10 bucks a share. The assets looked great , so I made a move. Worked out okay.
> 
> Thanks for your input on legacy Montreal. Appreciate that. It bottomed around 2.56 the other day and I was going to buy some more but told myself to wait. Has a real hard time holding 3 bucks and fell to 2.99 right at the close today. Haha. See what happens tomorrow . I don't expect it to be too busy with it being Memorial Day in the states, but I am anxious to hear more about the sale. I just hope it's not another head fake, but with articles in the globe and mail I don't think it is this time.
> 
> ducks for cup (or anyone ) what would you consider buying levels for Wells Fargo? Low 50s?




What I would look for in the quick glance I gave it, is if it falls through the 2.50 support, I'd look to see where the support comes in and if it shows strength at the new support level then I would consider adding more. On the other hand it looks like resistance is at the 3.00 level, so the problem is if it keeps trying to break through and keeps failing, without news it should drop back to the support level at some point. It would depend on how much you believe the sale will happen and when. 



Ducksforcup said:


> Don't know about an exact price target for WFC, but if it gets back down to that area of 50 bucks I'd start thinking about it. I don't think it will make a killing capital gains wise, but there isn't a more solid bank to buy IMO.
> 
> Its tough because at this point no one truly knows when the Fed will raise interest rates. The banks more than any other industry would benefit immensely from such a move of course.




I would guess that they are looking at a Sept rate raise but I'm skeptical that it will even happen then unless the GDP was impacted more from the bad weather in the 1st quarter as that 1st quarter GDP # was terrible. At this point it's hard to say when they will raise the rate, I personally lean towards it being later then Sept but that could change quickly when the 2nd quarter #'s are out.


----------



## Thucydides

Thanks - still no news, and again the stock breaks 3 dollars but hovers around 2.95-2.99. Big volume again today on this stock - 5 million alone on the TSX. 

Will continue to wait it out.


----------



## Thucydides

Broke 3 bucks today and held past the close. 

Meaningless, or hope? Haha


----------



## Ducksforcup

Market taking a little shellacking today.

Making some buying opportunities methinks.


----------



## Thucydides

That legacy deal went through. Not good for anyone who didn't get in at a real low. Bought for 2.87 - below the price it closed at today. 

Crescent point bought them and all my legacy shares are being converted into crescent point shares. Ceescent point pays a nice dividend so I am okay with my money in a safer stock. 

A lot of shareholders will be calling for investigations into this deal before its all said and done. 

Yes ducks - market took a beating today . Think I'm going to wait to do more buying.


----------



## Dave is a killer

The stock market is so over valued right now, expect it to take a dump in the near future... That's when you should jump in ... the economy isn't really as strong as the stock market is bearing it out to be.


----------



## montreal

Joe T Choker said:


> The stock market is so over valued right now, expect it to take a dump in the near future... That's when you should jump in ... the economy isn't really as strong as the stock market is bearing it out to be.




depends on what you consider the near future and how much of a drop you consider a dump? We'll see where the US economy ends up, it was a terrible 1st quarter but was it more to do with the bad weather or is the recovery losing steam? We'll find out when they announce 2nd quarter gdp, personally I think the US economy is better then the 1st q #'s showed but I guess we'll see.

Waiting on the sidelines for a serious drop that could be years away (if say you are talking about a 20% correction) it might be awhile. If you just mean a sharp pull back, well the summer months in July and August tend to be slow so you might find some stocks will be cheaper before the best time of the year in Dec/Jan.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

montreal said:


> depends on what you consider the near future and how much of a drop you consider a dump? We'll see where the US economy ends up, it was a terrible 1st quarter* but was it more to do with the bad weather or is the recovery losing steam?* We'll find out when they announce 2nd quarter gdp, personally I think the US economy is better then the 1st q #'s showed but I guess we'll see.
> 
> Waiting on the sidelines for a serious drop that could be years away (if say you are talking about a 20% correction) it might be awhile. If you just mean a sharp pull back, well the summer months in July and August tend to be slow so you might find some stocks will be cheaper before the best time of the year in Dec/Jan.




Weather excuse is a joke imo. Its just putting lipstick on a pig. Even the Oilers used the weather excuse this season to explain poor attendance. Had nothing to do with a bad hockey club according to management (at the time)


----------



## Dave is a killer

montreal said:


> depends on what you consider the near future and how much of a drop you consider a dump? We'll see where the US economy ends up, it was a terrible 1st quarter but was it more to do with the bad weather or is the recovery losing steam? We'll find out when they announce 2nd quarter gdp, personally I think the US economy is better then the 1st q #'s showed but I guess we'll see.
> 
> Waiting on the sidelines for a serious drop that could be years away (if say you are talking about a 20% correction) it might be awhile. If you just mean a sharp pull back, well the summer months in July and August tend to be slow so you might find some stocks will be cheaper before the best time of the year in Dec/Jan.




From the Bureau of Economic Analysis

And there is a chart to boot related with that article


----------



## Ducksforcup

Joe T Choker said:


> The stock market is so over valued right now, expect it to take a dump in the near future... That's when you should jump in ... the economy isn't really as strong as the stock market is bearing it out to be.




This is certainly true.

The way I explain it...this situation is the same as a voter voting for one guy because they hate the other guy.

Everyone knows the stock market is overvalued, but there are very few other decent options for people to put their money. 

By in large I am saving for the inevitable correction/selling off my holdings. 

Having said that, I still there are deals to be had even in this current market. And with the economy not looking so good...maybe the Fed prolongs this cheap money policy. In a cheap money market, I think the stock market actually looks pretty good honestly. Small cap is the way to go for sure.


----------



## Thucydides

I was thinking 3 different index funds - total market, dividend paying one, small cap one. 

I agree - small caps are a great way to go.


----------



## puckguy11

Started an IRA with a portion of my tax refund this year; right now have it split between VTI and EWC. Looking to add some non-North American exposure in the near future.


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> I was thinking 3 different index funds - total market, dividend paying one, small cap one.
> 
> I agree - small caps are a great way to go.




Index funds are probably one of the best long-term investments you can make. Excellent idea.


----------



## Ducksforcup

puckguy11 said:


> Started an IRA with a portion of my tax refund this year; right now have it split between VTI and EWC. Looking to add some non-North American exposure in the near future.




Good for you! Are these your first stock positions? 

IRAs are a fantastic investment vehicle.


----------



## nhldiedinthe90s*

hitman9172 said:


> Come from a finance background and very involved in the stock market.
> 
> Day trading is a fool's game. Almost all day traders will underperform the market in the long-run after factoring in fees and taxes.
> 
> Invest in low-cost ETFs unless you have the time, energy, intensity, and quantitative financial skills to research individual stocks (which most people in the world don't have). I also invest in blue-chip "dream" companies, but only at times when the world is ending, like during the last financial crisis. Unless you're in a recession, most blue chip companies are either fairly priced or overly priced, which means that they're probably not the best option if you're trying to maximize long-term returns.




Most people fail at whatever they pursue in life. Doesn't make their pursuit a fools game.

I mostly do technicals. Penny stocks are over-rated IMO, story driven stuff doesn't appeal to me.


----------



## hitman9172

nhldiedinthe90s said:


> Most people fail at whatever they pursue in life. Doesn't make their pursuit a fools game.
> 
> I mostly do technicals. Penny stocks are over-rated IMO, story driven stuff doesn't appeal to me.




Spending time day trading when there's a massive chance you'll underperform the market is a fool's game. You could buy an S&P or total stock market index fund, do something else far more enjoyable or productive with all your spare time, and end up better off than the vast majority of day traders.


----------



## Onslow

Idk if this has been mentioned yet, but novice investors/traders should be aware of the different tax implications (at least in the US. I'm assuming Canada is similar?) for long term gains and dividends versus short term gains.


----------



## puckguy11

Ducksforcup said:


> Good for you! Are these your first stock positions?
> 
> IRAs are a fantastic investment vehicle.




Not my first rodeo; I have a 401(k) from a prior job I plan to roll into the IRA. Did have a question though: While the main focus of my portfolio will be ETFs (Broker has commission free ETFs), I do have a few individual stocks I'd like to add at some point. Should I be that concerned about the weight of certain holdings in the portfolio, or if I just buy what I know/love alongside the cornerstone ETFs?


----------



## Ducksforcup

puckguy11 said:


> Not my first rodeo; I have a 401(k) from a prior job I plan to roll into the IRA. Did have a question though: While the main focus of my portfolio will be ETFs (Broker has commission free ETFs), I do have a few individual stocks I'd like to add at some point. Should I be that concerned about the weight of certain holdings in the portfolio, or if I just buy what I know/love alongside the cornerstone ETFs?




The more diversity the better.

As far as the weight, I'm not too sure to be honest. You certainly don't want to be too exposed to one industry. Wish I could help more, but I'm just not as familiar with IRAs.

Good luck!  What stocks are you looking at?


----------



## Ducksforcup

hitman9172 said:


> Spending time day trading when there's a massive chance you'll underperform the market is a fool's game. You could buy an S&P or total stock market index fund, do something else far more enjoyable or productive with all your spare time, and end up better off than the vast majority of day traders.




I mean you aren't necessarily wrong (though I wouldn't call it a "fool's game"), but that's just no fun.  Besides, as long as you are patient with your stocks (ie: not panic sell)...you should be ok in the long run.

Sure I could just buy index funds and forget about it...but that's just not my style.

Not saying index funds are bad at all...far from it. They are an amazing option that research has shown consistently perform.


----------



## puckguy11

Ducksforcup said:


> The more diversity the better.
> 
> As far as the weight, I'm not too sure to be honest. You certainly don't want to be too exposed to one industry. Wish I could help more, but I'm just not as familiar with IRAs.
> 
> Good luck!  What stocks are you looking at?




Coke, Disney, Ford


----------



## Ducksforcup

puckguy11 said:


> Coke, Disney, Ford




Nice, some fantastic big-cap companies there.

DIS especially is a darling of the market now...and it's hard to imagine the momentum slowing down (although Tomorrowland wasn't as successful as they wanted it to be).

I love Coke's ubiquity. It's a relatively conservative stock, but nothing wrong with that. They do have some challenges with the increasing push towards healthier products, but their will always be a market for Coke. I know they've been trying to get those fancy vending machines in more places.


----------



## puckguy11

Ducksforcup said:


> Nice, some fantastic big-cap companies there.
> 
> DIS especially is a darling of the market now...and it's hard to imagine the momentum slowing down (although Tomorrowland wasn't as successful as they wanted it to be).




Former Cast Member myself, so it's definitely close to me. The Lucasfilm/Marvel purchases puts less pressure on a Tomorrowland to succeed. You look at a Dreamworks, they have what, one movie out this year? Don't want to put those eggs in that basket.


----------



## montreal

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Weather excuse is a joke imo. Its just putting lipstick on a pig. Even the Oilers used the weather excuse this season to explain poor attendance. Had nothing to do with a bad hockey club according to management (at the time)




well I would never tie in the US economy to anything the oilers are doing, but we'll see when the numbers come out. It's also going to be bad news for the NHL and their cap if the US economy falls back into recession. 



nhldiedinthe90s said:


> Most people fail at whatever they pursue in life. Doesn't make their pursuit a fools game.
> 
> I mostly do technicals. Penny stocks are over-rated IMO, story driven stuff doesn't appeal to me.




I look at most things but always trying to improve my knowledge of technical trading. Do you find success using the Fibonacci retracement or using the "golden ratio" of 68.1% ? 



hitman9172 said:


> Spending time day trading when there's a massive chance you'll underperform the market is a fool's game. You could buy an S&P or total stock market index fund, do something else far more enjoyable or productive with all your spare time, and end up better off than the vast majority of day traders.




day trading and active investing often won't beat the S & P, if you aren't a pro and prefer to not be involved, buying index funds is a great way to go. I used to work for the Vanguard Group so I think very highly of them and the job they do. But I do this for a living so I don't want to pay someone to do something I think I can do better then they can. But for people that don't have the time to follow as imo it can take up a lot of time doing research, then index or ETF's are a good way to have your money work for you.



Onslow said:


> Idk if this has been mentioned yet, but novice investors/traders should be aware of the different tax implications (at least in the US. I'm assuming Canada is similar?) for long term gains and dividends versus short term gains.




yes, it's important to keep tax rates, inflation and trading costs in mind when looking at your gains.



puckguy11 said:


> Not my first rodeo; I have a 401(k) from a prior job I plan to roll into the IRA. Did have a question though: While the main focus of my portfolio will be ETFs (Broker has commission free ETFs), I do have a few individual stocks I'd like to add at some point. Should I be that concerned about the weight of certain holdings in the portfolio, or if I just buy what I know/love alongside the cornerstone ETFs?




It's impossible to say since I don't know your risk tolerance, but if you think you can handle a decent amount of risk then being a little overweight in stocks can help you grow your portfolio quicker assuming you pick the right ones of course. But if you don't feel you have a long time to be in the market to ride out the ups and downs then perhaps you should be underweight stocks. 

Peter Lynch who was a famous Fund Manager at Fidelity often wrote in his books about buying what you know. I personally believe in it, it clearly worked out for him. 



puckguy11 said:


> Coke, Disney, Ford




I did well with Dis and F, never owned coke cause I think the soda market at some point is going to get hit hard. Plus I took a beating on sodastream in the past, thought that they would sell well in the US.


----------



## puckguy11

montreal said:


> It's impossible to say since I don't know your risk tolerance, but if you think you can handle a decent amount of risk then being a little overweight in stocks can help you grow your portfolio quicker assuming you pick the right ones of course. But if you don't feel you have a long time to be in the market to ride out the ups and downs then perhaps you should be underweight stocks.
> 
> Peter Lynch who was a famous Fund Manager at Fidelity often wrote in his books about buying what you know. I personally believe in it, it clearly worked out for him.
> 
> 
> 
> I did well with Dis and F, never owned coke cause I think the soda market at some point is going to get hit hard. Plus I took a beating on sodastream in the past, thought that they would sell well in the US.




I'm in my mid 20's and seeing how this is an IRA account, this is for the long haul.


----------



## Thucydides

Market has been taking a beating gentlemen. Buy, or wait? 

Check out this China small cap etf - ECNS ishares trust. Lost 12 dollars in the last two days. A lot of unhappy people . 

Might buy some just for the profits when it eventually shoots back up. Going to hold on a bit though.


----------



## montreal

I freed up some cash before the Greece meltdown last Monday, I didn't jump in at the end of that day, thought about it but waited so now I'm just going to nibble on some things if I see a good price. 

I have owned some China stocks in the past, but I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot poll. It sounds like things are going to go from bad to really ugly. I'm concerned what it will do to the US stock market if it goes too ugly. 

I'm looking at FEYE, AMBA, GWPH, SRPT, CEMP, CLVS. Want to add to my positions in SGYP, TNXP, ACHN, RCPI (long story).


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

stingo said:


> Market has been taking a beating gentlemen. Buy, or wait?
> 
> *Check out this China small cap etf - ECNS ishares trust. Lost 12 dollars in the last two days. A lot of unhappy people *.
> 
> Might buy some just for the profits when it eventually shoots back up. Going to hold on a bit though.




I saw this today and thought it was quite interesting...


----------



## Thucydides

Yeah it went down to 39 this morning. So it's lost 15 now. 

I'm going to wait and see how China goes. But I'm going to be on on it for sure. China's small caps will be okay.


----------



## Thucydides

DXJ a Japanese etf is also hitting new lows.

I think I'll ride out this Greece mess. 

Is the pope telling the Catholic Church to not invest in big oil going to send shockwaves through the sector even more?

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end for oil? With climate change being at the front and center of nearly everything now , I'm beginning to wonder. 

I don't think oil is dead yet, but many years from now will we be able to look back and say this is where it started?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

stingo said:


> DXJ a Japanese etf is also hitting new lows.
> 
> I think I'll ride out this Greece mess.
> 
> Is the pope telling the Catholic Church to not invest in big oil going to send shockwaves through the sector even more?
> 
> Are we witnessing the beginning of the end for oil? With climate change being at the front and center of nearly everything now , I'm beginning to wonder.
> 
> I don't think oil is dead yet, but many years from now will we be able to look back and say this is where it started?




Cheap oil will set the clean energy movement back a few years until oil prices recover to the 100$ range. 

I think the end of oil will come from technological revolutions. Someone will invent something somehow that will change the world landscape. Just like the internet changed communications for example. We simply don't know what that thing is yet.


----------



## Thucydides

check out ECNS today. Up 9 bucks. Knew it was going to shoot up quick.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

stingo said:


> check out ECNS today. Up 9 bucks. Knew it was going to shoot up quick.




You must have confidence that the Chinese can fix their problems.


----------



## AnAceOfKidneys

time to look at some call options on gold?


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> You must have confidence that the Chinese can fix their problems.




Don't care. Bought late yesterday at 40 and sold today at 48 - missed the high but all good. Sometimes there's just some stocks where you have to strike when the iron is hot and be open to some risk, and sell quick. Could have crashed more but I figured a bottom was formed.

Didn't put much into it. That's always the case , but okay profit.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

stingo said:


> Don't care. Bought late yesterday at 40 and sold today at 48 - missed the high but all good. Sometimes there's just some stocks where you have to strike when the iron is hot and be open to some risk, and sell quick. Could have crashed more but I figured a bottom was formed.
> 
> Didn't put much into it. That's always the case , but okay profit.




Yes, if you are good at trading volatility then there's money to be made. I suck at that so I always look at stocks from a different perspective.


----------



## Thucydides

I look at stocks as a long term investment. But sometimes in a market as volatile as today's, and having been watching the market closely for a long time, sometimes there's good deals to be had and they don't last long. I normally don't day trade anymore just when I see a good deal. Good deals happen when people panic.


----------



## Thucydides

whooooweeee. i'm down big today. when is the hurting going to stop? haha


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Today is my only positive day in the last 3 days


----------



## John Price

Devaluation of the chinese yuan leading to market fluctuations


----------



## Ducksforcup

Market has been rough lately, but as long as interest rates remain low...it remains a viable place to at least garner some return in my view.


----------



## Ducksforcup

stingo said:


> Market has been taking a beating gentlemen. Buy, or wait?
> 
> Check out this China small cap etf - ECNS ishares trust. Lost 12 dollars in the last two days. A lot of unhappy people .
> 
> Might buy some just for the profits when it eventually shoots back up. Going to hold on a bit though.




A China play is pretty speculative...it takes the assumption that China will do everything it can to prop up its economy. The real question is will it be enough?

I own BABA...so I hope it will be lol.


----------



## Thucydides

I was in and out of ECNS in 2 days. I'm staying far away from China. I'm wishing I stayed far away from oil.


----------



## montreal

if oil falls into the 30's, I might start getting back in slowly by dollar cost averaging. Will look to own SLB again as I got out when it was over 100 but would like to pick some up if it dips into the 70's. I am a killing on SUBCY back when it was under the name Stolt and then later Acergy, they are based in Norway so I might look at that them again. SDRL is another I might start picking some up on the cheap a little at a time. I've red where some thing oil could actually drop into the 20's but not sure I see that happening. We'll see what does happen if it breaks the 40 level as that could make things get real interesting.

Thought about picking up some appl at 113 but opted not to since China has me concerned. Probably should have but will keep an eye on it.


----------



## John Price

Som,eone fix the damn china economy


----------



## montreal

Mike Emrick said:


> Som,eone fix the damn china economy




well at worst they are talking about a 5.5% growth rate, down from 7%. Personally I have more concerns with their stock market since it's so heavily invested by retail.


----------



## WeThreeKings

I don't understand the stock market.

How do I make monies.


----------



## John Price

mutual funds

just let other people do it for u


----------



## WeThreeKings

I don't trust other people.


----------



## WeThreeKings

Nobody wants to see anybody else happy or rich if they themselves are not happy or rich. If they are happy and rich, they don't want anybody to be happier or richer than them.

People are WOAT.


----------



## John Price

Either that or do a pyramid scheme

"I'll take your money and invest it."


----------



## WeThreeKings

Lirl I had someone try to get me into a pyramid scheme once.


----------



## hockeyfish

WeThreeKings said:


> I don't trust other people.




In that case, may I suggest investing in a high quality mattress.


----------



## WeThreeKings

hockeyfish said:


> In that case, may I suggest investing in a high quality mattress.




I sleep on a board to keep my posture perfect.


----------



## Classicnamesup

Canadian Couch Potato > the guy you are paying 2% to not beat the market


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Mike Emrick said:


> mutual funds
> 
> just let other people do it for u




lol no

invest in ETF's, less fees and you make more money (potentially)


----------



## needzmoarcleary

Very interest reading through this thread and very informative. My dad has been telling me to get into stocks for a bit now. I was very reluctant bc of financial situation and working on music and finding a good job. I do have a nice job and have gotten caught up finacially (student loans and other debt). Definately interested in testing the waters. I guess besides doing the research what would be an ideal number to start out with? I guess me being me having a ideal number money wise is something I'm more interested in about. Like I don't have 50k laying around. What's something realistic that isn't selling myself short but not investing like way too much to start off.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

needzmoarcleary said:


> Very interest reading through this thread and very informative. My dad has been telling me to get into stocks for a bit now. I was very reluctant bc of financial situation and working on music and finding a good job. I do have a nice job and have gotten caught up finacially (student loans and other debt). Definately interested in testing the waters. I guess besides doing the research what would be an ideal number to start out with? I guess me being me having a ideal number money wise is something I'm more interested in about. Like I don't have 50k laying around. What's something realistic that isn't selling myself short but not investing like way too much to start off.




Buy a book on ETFs would be a good way to start. Learn the differences between different investment types and also learn the most tax efficient ways to invest.

One of the ways I learned about all this stuff was buying/selling silver bullion coins. You don't have to put much money into it. Today coins go for 15-20$. Depending what country you live in they are tax free. You also don't need a brokerage account. It allowed me to learn how to follow charts, learn how to do research, where to find good information ect. Then as I got a better job and earned more moeny and got better at investings I ventured into the stock market and other investments.

I think in todays digital age you could probably do the same with bitcoin as a low cost way to learn how to trade but i don't know enough about bitcoin to give a more detailed answer.


----------



## njdevscup30

buy low sell high imo


----------



## Thucydides

freed up some cash last night on the china news. 

averaged down on the vanguard total stock index fund. it fell to 33. back up to over 35 now. 

got in western energy drilling services when it fell to 3.10. It's back up over 4 now. 

good day so far. got clobbered on some of the stocks I've owned though. 

dow down over 1000. black monday.


----------



## Thucydides

needzmoarcleary said:


> Very interest reading through this thread and very informative. My dad has been telling me to get into stocks for a bit now. I was very reluctant bc of financial situation and working on music and finding a good job. I do have a nice job and have gotten caught up finacially (student loans and other debt). Definately interested in testing the waters. I guess besides doing the research what would be an ideal number to start out with? I guess me being me having a ideal number money wise is something I'm more interested in about. Like I don't have 50k laying around. What's something realistic that isn't selling myself short but not investing like way too much to start off.




You don't have to go "all in" at once. Buy some safe stocks, a little bit at a time. there's some really good buys out there today. it's like the clearance candy aisle at walmart the day after halloween today. 

just be patient. i think it's gonna go lower from here. china is all smoke and mirrors. i don't think it's hit bottom yet.


----------



## John Price

Rip dow Jones


----------



## SJSharksfan39

Mike Emrick said:


> Rip dow Jones




Might be a little premature. Market had come back a lot since.


----------



## Dakota Sioux

SJSharksfan39 said:


> Might be a little premature. Market had come back a lot since.




Nothing but a correction. I've been through more than one of these and have always held tight. In the end it has always worked out. It will again.


----------



## Thucydides

a lot of the losses have already been corrected or are close to being corrected to last weeks levels. just have to hold on. 

took profits on the stocks i purchased this morning, unsure as to whether or not this is a correction or the start of a bear market.


----------



## John Price

Yeah REBOUND


----------



## WeHaveBeenFletched

if you have 401k/market long term investments you just have to ride out corrections with the market like we had recently. if you worry about your money every single day then you need to get out. or put your money in a low interest, safe fund.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

njdevscup30 said:


> buy low sell high imo




Today, you could have done that before lunchtime.


----------



## John Price

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Today, you could have done that before lunchtime.




Dad that's Fox 

Undo undo


----------



## Siamese Dream

Anyway, this piece of paper is worth 80k, so I get onto the blower to Timbo
Hi Charlie, how's tricks?
Got a piece of paper here worth 80k but by tonight it's going to be worth 2 million!
Crikey, why?
Because I say so

[Yt]ZiJa9diJOMk[/MEDIA]


----------



## Soliloquy of a Dogge

Too poor to afford to invest. #BlackMonday does not have an effect on me.


----------



## Siamese Dream

"It's just a load of ****** bankers having made stupid bets with each other when they're drunk, no bad thing has happened, it's not like all the pigs in South America suddenly died of blight"

[Yt]DdF76QhVEFE[/Yt]


----------



## njdevscup30

I have cash in a roth IRA I need to invest. I know it's long term, so there is no "bad" time to invest, I might take the plunge soon. Just into basic Vanguard mutual funds.


----------



## montreal

Some really great prices, I couldn't get them in the first few minutes but still was able to add a few at a decent price. Will be keeping an eye on others like Amba, Netflix, Appl, IBB, don't want to buy the big names when the market is acting so crazy since it's hard to call a bottom and they could still drop a lot.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## WeThreeKings

A lot of angry americans today.


----------



## Cody Webster

NBC News ‏@NBCNews 5m5 minutes ago

China stocks tumble more than 6 percent at open


----------



## WeThreeKings

A lot of angry Chinese people today.


----------



## Dave is a killer

Joe T Choker said:


> The stock market is so over valued right now, expect it to take a dump in the near future... That's when you should jump in ... the economy isn't really as strong as the stock market is bearing it out to be.




Knocks on front door, looks around, sits down and has a drink, smoke


----------



## Hansen

buy money sell money


----------



## Hansen

just not canadian money


----------



## John Price

World equities swing as Shanghai plumbs new depths
2 Yahoo News / 2 hours ago
A slump in Chinese shares sparked pandemonium across financial markets on Monday, wiping some $2.7 trillion off global equitiesEquity markets convulsed on Tuesday as Chinese stocks pursued their worst rout in nearly two decades, after concerns of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy sparked panic selling around the globe. Shanghai stocks tumbled on Tuesday, extending their steepest four-day fall since 1996, but European equities rebounded in early trading as investors went bargain-hunting after heavy losses the previous day. A slump in Chinese shares sparked pandemonium across financial markets on Monday, wiping some $2.7 trillion off global equities as bourses from London to Buenos Aires were caught up in the plunge.


----------



## Thucydides

Going to be another big sell off today, it appears.


----------



## WeThreeKings

sell off vacations dot com


----------



## ShootIt

stingo said:


> Going to be another big sell off today, it appears.




Dow futures up 600 points after China cuts interest rates.


----------



## WeThreeKings

Well enDOWed


----------



## Satan

Stocks in good companies


----------



## WeThreeKings

Ix buys stock in HFboards


----------



## Shrimper

China collapsing.


----------



## WeThreeKings

China karate chops the stock market.


----------



## John Price

WeThreeKings said:


> Ix buys stock in HFboards




CRV CRAVE ONLINE UP 50.20a


----------



## WeThreeKings

lmao


----------



## Alex Jones

Bulltrap today guys, beware.


----------



## WeThreeKings

High risks ventures for errbody


----------



## The Joker*

Took another $20k off the table about an hour ago. Feeling good about my cash:holdings ratio right now. Waiting in the wings for my time.


----------



## WeThreeKings

You have no money. You put it all in Vegan stocks and nobody buys vegan.


----------



## Siamese Dream

It is just people were juggling with numbers that didn't exist and it got out of hand because they're arse holes


----------



## WeThreeKings

I got one hand in my pocket and the other one's giving a peace sign


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Ryan Atwood said:


> Took another $20k off the table about an hour ago. Feeling good about my cash:holdings ratio right now. Waiting in the wings for my time.




Same, I have a ton of cash ready to pounce once another correction and panic sell happens.


----------



## WeThreeKings

I want 5% of all your gross earnings.


----------



## ChickenBurrito

WeThreeKings said:


> I want 5% of all your gross earnings.




You sound like a liberal


----------



## WeThreeKings

I am a Liberal.


----------



## ChickenBurrito

WeThreeKings said:


> I am a Liberal.




Well you sound like one so...


----------



## WeThreeKings

well you sound like a bum


----------



## SJSharksfan39

Even when the Market has a rally, it will probably still end up in the red. This market is a little weird.


----------



## WeThreeKings

HIgh stakes games.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Dead cat bounce.


----------



## WeThreeKings

dead dog bounce sounds better.


----------



## Alex Jones

SJSharksfan39 said:


> Even when the Market has a rally, it will probably still end up in the red. This market is a little weird.




Its going down again tomorrow. Lower lows all day long today. It's not a rally, just a bounce from extreme overselling.


----------



## John Price

China


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Alex Jones said:


> Its going down again tomorrow. Lower lows all day long today. It's not a rally, just a bounce from extreme overselling.




DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all up over 1.5% in pretrading today soooo you're completely wrong. Hope you don't work in the financial industry.


----------



## John Price

ChickenBurrito said:


> DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all up over 1.5% in pretrading today soooo you're completely wrong. Hope you don't work in the financial industry.




I agree


----------



## WeThreeKings

Alex Jones gave me financial advise and now I live in a cardboard box.

What do?


----------



## John Price

The problem is yall freak out over a couple of bad days. The market fluctuates. Deal with it.


----------



## WeThreeKings

Mike Emrick stop freaking out. The Market fluctuates. Deal with it.


----------



## The Joker*

And there it goes again... predicting the Dow to drop into the red mid-day, and then rally to 15,800 to 15,900 to close.


----------



## WeHaveBeenFletched

Mike Emrick said:


> The problem is yall freak out over a couple of bad days. The market fluctuates. Deal with it.




The problem is yall freak out over a couple of bad days. The market fluctuates. Deal with it.


----------



## Alex Jones

ChickenBurrito said:


> DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all up over 1.5% in pretrading today soooo you're completely wrong. Hope you don't work in the financial industry.




Pretrading is garbage. I bet it will will finish down. People got trapped yesterday as well.


----------



## WeThreeKings

I'm a trapper not a rapper.


----------



## SJSharksfan39

Alex Jones said:


> Pretrading is garbage. I bet it will will finish down. People got trapped yesterday as well.




The Dow is now up over 500 points. Still think it will go down?


----------



## OhCaptainMyCaptain

Quite a climb on the Dow today. What a roller coaster that has been the last three days.


----------



## John Price

Yeah wasn't it supposed to go down! ?


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Alex Jones said:


> Pretrading is garbage. I bet it will will finish down. People got trapped yesterday as well.




What will happen tomorrow? I want to fade your pick


----------



## WeThreeKings

Everyone invest the opposite of Alex Jones


----------



## hockeyfish

It's times like these I remember wise old words...

There is always money in the banana stand.


----------



## WeThreeKings

This is true,


----------



## Thucydides

Oil is up almost 10% today. Nice rally. Dead cat bounce, or have we seen the bottom?


----------



## John Price

It was a blip 

Move along


----------



## WeThreeKings

Black Monday.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Oil is up almost 10% today. Nice rally. Dead cat bounce, or have we seen the bottom?




it's a nice technical move but would be surprised if the bottom is in just yet as Oil could have some tougher days over the next few months.


----------



## WeThreeKings

Invest in water.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Invest in Waffles with lots of syrup.


----------



## WeThreeKings

Invest in parties with lemons.


----------



## BuppY

Invest in water.


----------



## WeThreeKings

BuppY said:


> Invest in water.




Retweet.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

now that i have a real job i want to start investing in stuff

how start


----------



## njdevscup30

open a 401k or roth IRA. Put money in. Invest in general stock market funds, and watch them go up and down for a while while you learn what's going on. In general, best to invest in tax advantaged accounts while you don't know much. Just pick a couple Vanguard ETFs or Mutual Funds to start.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Jangling Man said:


> now that i have a real job i want to start investing in stuff
> 
> how start



Don`t lis`ten to any of the Nerd`s in this T`hread. Many People think, Buy Low, Sell High. But it`s not that Sim`ple. My Gr8 Grappable Gran Pappable was so G`ood at S`tockin`g, that Many though`t he was In`sider Tradin`g.  He Had one Piece of S`imple advice: `Buy High, Sell Higher. ` The Reaso`n bein`g is, Is that u can Make more M`oney that way.

So R`em`ber: _Buy High, Sell Higher_.


----------



## John Price

Jiminy GOAT


----------



## Finnish your Czech

Jiminy Cricket said:


> Don`t lis`ten to any of the Nerd`s in this T`hread. Many People think, Buy Low, Sell High. But it`s not that Sim`ple. My Gr8 Grappable Gran Pappable was so G`ood at S`tockin`g, that Many though`t he was In`sider Tradin`g.  He Had one Piece of S`imple advice: `Buy High, Sell Higher. ` The Reaso`n bein`g is, Is that u can Make more M`oney that way.
> 
> So R`em`ber: _Buy High, Sell Higher_.




That's good advice.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

There are three ways to make money in the stock market.

Be First, Be Smarter or Cheat.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Good to see this thread revived!

Market has been a strange Duck lately. Tons of volatility. 

Who knows when the Fed will raise interest rates?  Increasingly looking like it won't happen in December now.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

Jiminy Cricket said:


> Don`t lis`ten to any of the Nerd`s in this T`hread. Many People think, Buy Low, Sell High. But it`s not that Sim`ple. My Gr8 Grappable Gran Pappable was so G`ood at S`tockin`g, that Many though`t he was In`sider Tradin`g.  He Had one Piece of S`imple advice: `Buy High, Sell Higher. ` The Reaso`n bein`g is, Is that u can Make more M`oney that way.
> 
> So R`em`ber: _Buy High, Sell Higher_.




#TeamMeat


----------



## montreal

Ducksforcup said:


> Good to see this thread revived!
> 
> Market has been a strange Duck lately. Tons of volatility.
> 
> Who knows when the Fed will raise interest rates?  Increasingly looking like it won't happen in December now.




I don't know when they will raise, I wouldn't rule out December yet, but I could see them holding off till March. Got to think they will raise by then. 

I'm a bit surprised by oil holding up so well, bio-tech has gotten killed but talk about attractive prices. Great time to dollar cost average into them.


----------



## Satan

bbuy low... sell high


drink budeweirser


----------



## Thucydides

montreal said:


> I don't know when they will raise, I wouldn't rule out December yet, but I could see them holding off till March. Got to think they will raise by then.
> 
> I'm a bit surprised by oil holding up so well, bio-tech has gotten killed but talk about attractive prices. Great time to dollar cost average into them.




You see anything attractive on the TSX in the biotech sector? I was following TTPH for awhile, watched them fall from 35 to 7. It's around 9 now, and was thinking of taking a small position. 

Oil stocks are moving, finally. Thanks, Putin.


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> You see anything attractive on the TSX in the biotech sector? I was following TTPH for awhile, watched them fall from 35 to 7. It's around 9 now, and was thinking of taking a small position.
> 
> Oil stocks are moving, finally. Thanks, Putin.




I don't trade off the TSX, just Nasd/NYSE. I bought into TTPH, like them a lot. The drop was overblown, if you have a long term outlook. So many bio's are extremely attractive but I'm buying small amounts in each in case they take another down turn (bio's are not for everybody since they are so volatile) 

I am still holding off on getting back into oil, but keeping a close eye on it.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

buy high sell higher


----------



## Thucydides

I have a long term outlook on biotechs. 5-7 years? 

I've been eyeing up "long run exploration" on the TSX. A couple months ago I bought in and got out on the run up. Oil continued to get killed and the stock fell to 0.29 cents a share. BUT ... A Chinese energy company offered 1.30 per share and long run agreed. This is what caused the run up in the first place. And it fell back down, I'm assuming by pro traders shorting it in order to quadruple their $$$ instead of merely doubling it. 

http://longrun.mwnewsroom.com/press...n-private-placemen-tsx-lre-201508041020055001

There's the news release from the company. 

I'm going to see where oil goes tmw and start my position. 

There's also a large kill fee if the deal doesn't go through. Can't see why it won't??


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> I have a long term outlook on biotechs. 5-7 years?




depends on where each individual biotech is at in terms of phase I, phase II or phase III. It takes so long to get through each level depending on what kind of disease they are fighting. The late stage ones will likely have a much shorter time horizon and the early stages could be 5-10 years easily. Bio's are just so risky but that's why they are so attractive as they offer so much upside. 

TTPH should be back on track in 2-3 years or less hopefully. Right now bio's are getting crushed but if you dollar cost average in, it can be a great addition to ones portfolio. 

Here's some bigger ones I like, BLUE, BRMN, GWPH, GILD, REGN

Some mid's, PTCT, SGEN, JUNO, ITCI, CEMP, SRPT, XON

Some smaller ones, SGYP, SYN, IDRA, TNXP, OMER, PGNX, AQXP, CNAT


----------



## Thucydides

Thank you. What do you think of that view on long run ? Am I way off base?


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> Thank you. What do you think of that view on long run ? Am I way off base?




I never heard of long run and mainly just trade US companies. In the past this isn't a strong time for oil but I've been surprised at how well it's held up as I thought for sure it would be low 40's or even high 30's by now. I'm still not sold that the bottom is in but with Putin in Syria and the Iran deal looking like it will go through perhaps this will push oil higher. There's also the US in Texas is looking to end the ban on exporting oil which goes back to the early '70's and if that goes through I would be interested to see what kind of impact it has on price.


----------



## Thucydides

It's definitely getting interesting. Opec meeting next week with non-opec members - Mexico, Norway, Brazil, etc. Venezuela wants the oil price back at 70. Needs it back at 100, but 70 will be enough for now. Can't see the Saudi's caving. Not yet anyway.


----------



## steafo

This thread has been a good read. For the more experienced people in this thread what are your favorite websites/apps to read charts, news etc....

I am a complete newbie and I am just starting to research how this all works. Any sources of information would be beneficial to me.


----------



## John Price

I agree I want to learn more 

Resources are appreciated 

Sometimes I watch cnbc


----------



## montreal

steafo said:


> This thread has been a good read. For the more experienced people in this thread what are your favorite websites/apps to read charts, news etc....
> 
> I am a complete newbie and I am just starting to research how this all works. Any sources of information would be beneficial to me.




The book that really helped me learn charts was How to Make Money in Stocks by William J. O'Neil. He runs the newspaper Investors Business Daily. 

I use yahoo finance for just general stuff, so I'm on there every day. 

The important thing if you are new imo, is to learn the basics first. How the stock market works, difference between Nasd and NYSE, difference between Value and Growth stocks. Different types of financial instruments. (It helped me to learn them one at a time, so I heavily focused on stocks first, then options, then say bonds, etc...)


----------



## QnebO

Jiminy Cricket said:


> Don`t lis`ten to any of the Nerd`s in this T`hread. Many People think, Buy Low, Sell High. But it`s not that Sim`ple. My Gr8 Grappable Gran Pappable was so G`ood at S`tockin`g, that Many though`t he was In`sider Tradin`g.  He Had one Piece of S`imple advice: `Buy High, Sell Higher. ` The Reaso`n bein`g is, Is that u can Make more M`oney that way.
> 
> So R`em`ber: _Buy High, Sell Higher_.




What is "high" anyway. You mean buy only very expensive companies like apple, and sell them with 0,52312% profit the same day? If so, what are you injecting? The profit is mainly generated with difference of buy-in and sell-out prices. If you think you can live with minimal profits per stock, you must already own billions that you can play with, otherwise the payments for banks are going to be bigger than the profit.


----------



## QnebO

Ducksforcup said:


> Who knows when the Fed will raise interest rates?  Increasingly looking like it won't happen in December now.




Based on what we should be waiting them to raise interest rates? Definitely interesting, maybe it would be time to buy that ridiculously cheap interest roof for a house loan..


----------



## John Price

QnebO said:


> What is "high" anyway. You mean buy only very expensive companies like apple, and sell them with 0,52312% profit the same day? If so, what are you injecting? The profit is mainly generated with difference of buy-in and sell-out prices. If you think you can live with minimal profits per stock, you must already own billions that you can play with, otherwise the payments for banks are going to be bigger than the profit.




I think great grammapable palpable knows what he's talking about. They thought he was insider trading he was so good .


----------



## QnebO

Mike Emrick said:


> I think great grammapable palpable knows what he's talking about. They thought he was insider trading he was so good .




I'm trying to make him troll more and look like I believe it. It's like counter-trolling. But do not tell him.

_Or I just wasn't awake_


----------



## CarlWinslow

I've always wanted to get in on this. I see things like weed stocks jumping following Trudeau's election, which is something a person could take a pretty decent gamble on. It was fairly clear Trudeau was going to win so there was some predictability there.

My issues are as follows:

How much cash would a guy need to have in an account to sort of get going at relatively low stakes?

What online brokerage is good for Canadians AND would accept a sort of low stakes deposit to start?


----------



## MrFunnyWobbl

My Aecon stock jumped 70 cents with the Liberals election.


----------



## QnebO

Russian and China stocks in general raising, any #HFINSIDER knowledge about it?


----------



## Ducksforcup

Big fan of Google Finance, but Yahoo Finance is good as well. Like using "The Motley Fool" and "Barrons" for analyst reports.

Stocks across the board with a huge day today (mostly due to likely increased ECB stimulus).


----------



## QnebO

Windows 10 economy app is the best for me. It also has great service in Finnish and listing news from Finnish papers ect. In addition to, of course, international stuff.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Here are my links

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://www2.morningstar.ca/homepage/IntroPage.aspx?culture=en-CA
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business
http://www.stockcharts.com/

I also use the obvious ones such as Google Finance, CNBC, ect.

I use questrade as an online broker.


----------



## montreal

Crazy market, so many attractive prices. AMBA is falling like a rock, never owned it before but thinking of getting in. SKX I own, it's just coming off a 3-1 split but it's down huge in after-hours due to earnings, I actually like what I red and if it drops into the low 30's it's a buy for sure. TASR is another one I own that is still very cheap compared to future earnings. 

ACHN is going to be a big winner, the bio-techs are getting killed right now but at some point the bleeding will stop and someone is going to make a killing picking up the cheap shares. Keeping my eye on VRX, almost bought some at 90 but if they did fudge sales #'s that's going to be very ugly on top of it already dropping from over 260 to under 90 in less then 3 months. Ouch. 



CarlWinslow said:


> I've always wanted to get in on this. I see things like weed stocks jumping following Trudeau's election, which is something a person could take a pretty decent gamble on. It was fairly clear Trudeau was going to win so there was some predictability there.
> 
> My issues are as follows:
> 
> How much cash would a guy need to have in an account to sort of get going at relatively low stakes?
> 
> What online brokerage is good for Canadians AND would accept a sort of low stakes deposit to start?




I can't really help you there as I live in the states. I use Scottrade, but most online brokers you can set up accounts for 2K or so, have heard of others that are less but I would just add that the less money the harder it can be to make money. 

I was in weed stocks when they were really hot and was lucky to get out in all but one. That sector has been crushed after it was insanely hot. I would never recommend OTC stocks (and even more so to the pink sheet stocks) to anyone as they are very risky on top of the regular equity risk as they have unregulated risk meaning they can just about do or say anything.


----------



## Thucydides

weed stocks, boys. weed stocks. what an incredible run these past two weeks. got out today with 6x returns. ogi.v, cgc.v

CarlWinslow - Just open a trading account with your bank. You can trade online, buy and sell. I'm with TD. I had to call and make an appointment with the bank. You can start with as much cash as you wish, as long as you have enough to cover the share price and the trade price. I pay 9.99 per trade, but they all differ. But t's really risky. Someone is going to get left holding the bag at some point.


----------



## John Price

I base all my financial transactions on what "The Special One" would do


----------



## Stand Witness

stingo said:


> weed stocks, boys. weed stocks. what an incredible run these past two weeks. got out today with 6x returns. ogi.v, cgc.v
> 
> CarlWinslow - Just open a trading account with your bank. You can trade online, buy and sell. I'm with TD. I had to call and make an appointment with the bank. You can start with as much cash as you wish, as long as you have enough to cover the share price and the trade price. I pay 9.99 per trade, but they all differ. But t's really risky. Someone is going to get left holding the bag at some point.




HI fellow owner of CGC 

After making a solid return I decided to sell out enough to breakeven and keep the remainder in as profit. I was willing to sell 2/3 at probably a lower price than I could get if I waited but I just have a feeling it will level out and drop a bit soon. I made that mistake with BBD (Bombardier). Bought at 1.15, price starting going up within the next week, I had a plan to sell at 2.00 after seeing it go up for a while but decided to hold off because of the jumps it was taking every day. Ended up hitting like 2.02 the same day I was going to sell and then it dropped back down to where it is at about 1.50 right now. I was going to do the same thing and sell to my breakeven and keep the rest for my portfolio.

I am going to look up OGI. I am looking for another weed stock to get into. My buddy bought some of APH which is about half the price of CGC and similar increases of .10-.20c raises per day.


----------



## Thucydides

Keep riding cgc up. It'll go to 8-10, and I wouldn't be comfortable holding it any longer than that. I doubled cgc.v and made the 6xreturns on ogi.v 

Good price to get in on BBD. I haven't gone in it yet.


----------



## CarlWinslow

Any of you guys playing the dividend game? I've spoken to some people who basically buy stocks with constantly increasing dividends to hold long term for immediate cash flow.

Then, although those stocks can dip in value, they generally go up over the longer term if they want to get out. Think Target as an example.


----------



## Thucydides

I primarily play the dividend game. Most of my money is in dividend paying, safe stocks. Canadian Banks, and most of my cash is in VUN.to Vanguard Total Stock Index Fund. It tracks the entire US stock market, and historically, the stock market goes up every year, even if it crashes, I mean, it will eventually come back. They pay a quarterly dividend. It's safe, I just keep adding to it every pay, even if it's like 10-20 shares at a time. It helps me sleep better at night. Haha 

I just got into weed stocks because I knew there was going to be some insane run-ups. I'm in a little bit on OGI.V, but I'm going to get completely out tomorrow, or whenever I'm even. Got in at 1.15. Oops. I'll put the cash back into Vanguard.


----------



## Ricchi e Poveri

I think it is a little bit early to jump on the oil train. When the time is due I will trade australian oilers because of the weaker aussie. But I want to see a reversal formation. Great day today btw. Next week will be crucial for the rest of the year. Will european markets (Dax) rise higher because of the US-rate hike and the stronger dollar? Or will the markets anticipate a 'rate hike after the rate hike' ? Will gold go even lower? Will the HSI follow Shanghai? Exciting times. Good luck to all HFBoard traders.


----------



## GREMLIN

MrFunnyWobbl said:


> My Aecon stock jumped 70 cents with the Liberals election.




I own it too in my TFSA, bought it around 11$



montreal said:


> Crazy market, so many attractive prices. AMBA is falling like a rock, never owned it before but thinking of getting in. SKX I own, it's just coming off a 3-1 split but it's down huge in after-hours due to earnings, I actually like what I red and if it drops into the low 30's it's a buy for sure. TASR is another one I own that is still very cheap compared to future earnings.
> 
> ACHN is going to be a big winner, the bio-techs are getting killed right now but at some point the bleeding will stop and someone is going to make a killing picking up the cheap shares. Keeping my eye on VRX, almost bought some at 90 but if they did fudge sales #'s that's going to be very ugly on top of it already dropping from over 260 to under 90 in less then 3 months. Ouch.
> 
> 
> 
> I can't really help you there as I live in the states. I use Scottrade, but most online brokers you can set up accounts for 2K or so, have heard of others that are less but I would just add that the less money the harder it can be to make money.
> 
> I was in weed stocks when they were really hot and was lucky to get out in all but one. That sector has been crushed after it was insanely hot. I would never recommend OTC stocks (and even more so to the pink sheet stocks) to anyone as they are very risky on top of the regular equity risk as they have unregulated risk meaning they can just about do or say anything.




Hey Montreal, I just found out about this thread as I dont visit the lounge too often, you're one of my favorite posters to get reports on habs prospects but I had no idea you worked in the stock market, I went through the whole thread and I gotta say I really appreciated your insight, I kinda wish there was more activity in this thread because it's been a super interesting read for me as I am a finance student, I was pretty lucky to come from a family that have been involved in the stock market for a while and can educate me on the stock market a little bit, my mother has managed a trading account for me during my childhood and still does because she is pretty good at it but does not do it professionally either. I also worked crazy hours during the past two summers to gather enough money to open my own trading account and experience and try to test different trading methods on my own as I have a particular interest in technical analysis because it's a method a university teacher I really liked recommended to me, the idea of seeing profits on a regular basis instead of just waiting on them constantly attracts me a lot but I understand I need to basically become a master at it if I dont want to get burned. I've been trying to read and gather knowledge on the subject everyday for about a year and a half now and have had some success and also a major failure panic selling trading leveraged natural gas ETN's, I am definitely done with those now.

I see that you are an expert in Biotech, I currently dont own any bio stocks in the account I manage on my own but in the one my mother manages I currently own PFE, GILD (that was my idea, bought it @90$) AND SNY which went through hell last week after they announced no profit growth for the next 2 years, if you have any recommandations on any of these I would highly appreciate your insight. I'm following VRX but it still feels like there is more pain is coming, waiting for a bottom here. As for other stocks I'm mostly invested in Canadian banks, Canadian energy ETFs which got killed the last year, FB and AAPL.

Any kind of insight on whatever stock you're looking at would interest me very much, thanks!



Marner to the Leafs said:


> HI fellow owner of CGC
> 
> After making a solid return I decided to sell out enough to breakeven and keep the remainder in as profit. I was willing to sell 2/3 at probably a lower price than I could get if I waited but I just have a feeling it will level out and drop a bit soon. I made that mistake with BBD (Bombardier). Bought at 1.15, price starting going up within the next week, I had a plan to sell at 2.00 after seeing it go up for a while but decided to hold off because of the jumps it was taking every day. Ended up hitting like 2.02 the same day I was going to sell and then it dropped back down to where it is at about 1.50 right now. I was going to do the same thing and sell to my breakeven and keep the rest for my portfolio.
> 
> I am going to look up OGI. I am looking for another weed stock to get into. My buddy bought some of APH which is about half the price of CGC and similar increases of .10-.20c raises per day.






stingo said:


> Keep riding cgc up. It'll go to 8-10, and I wouldn't be comfortable holding it any longer than that. I doubled cgc.v and made the 6xreturns on ogi.v
> 
> Good price to get in on BBD. I haven't gone in it yet.




I've been following BBD and weed stocks a lot lately too, mostly CGV and OGI but I'm waiting for it to settle down to find an entry because they are definitely overrated right now with the crazy run up they've had since the Trudeau election. I dont know about CGV going to 8-10$ though, thats like a 400% return.

I think Baytex is an interesting stock too, went from 30$ to 6$ in the last year, very volatile lately, potential buyout candidate, waiting on this one for an entry closer to 5$.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Hey Montreal, I just found out about this thread as I dont visit the lounge too often, you're one of my favorite posters to get reports on habs prospects but I had no idea you worked in the stock market, I went through the whole thread and I gotta say I really appreciated your insight, I kinda wish there was more activity in this thread because it's been a super interesting read for me as I am a finance student, I was pretty lucky to come from a family that have been involved in the stock market for a while and can educate me on the stock market a little bit, my mother has managed a trading account for me during my childhood and still does because she is pretty good at it but does not do it professionally either. I also worked crazy hours during the past two summers to gather enough money to open my own trading account and experience and try to test different trading methods on my own as I have a particular interest in technical analysis because it's a method a university teacher I really liked recommended to me, the idea of seeing profits on a regular basis instead of just waiting on them constantly attracts me a lot but I understand I need to basically become a master at it if I dont want to get burned. I've been trying to read and gather knowledge on the subject everyday for about a year and a half now and have had some success and also a major failure panic selling trading leveraged natural gas ETN's, I am definitely done with those now.
> 
> I see that you are an expert in Biotech, I currently dont own any bio stocks in the account I manage on my own but in the one my mother manages I currently own PFE, GILD (that was my idea, bought it @90$) AND SNY which went through hell last week after they announced no profit growth for the next 2 years, if you have any recommandations on any of these I would highly appreciate your insight. I'm following VRX but it still feels like there is more pain is coming, waiting for a bottom here. As for other stocks I'm mostly invested in Canadian banks, Canadian energy ETFs which got killed the last year, FB and AAPL.
> 
> Any kind of insight on whatever stock you're looking at would interest me very much, thanks!.




I've been trading stocks since the early '90's, have worked for Vanguard Group, JPMorgan, Citi, etc... With Bio's it's a great time to start a position but you have to know what you are doing as it's high risk. But that's why people invest in them as they have major upside. Right now the sector has been getting thumped but should start working it's way back. 

I mainly invest in US companies and I only trade off the Nasd/NYSE, and if I have a lot of money in one stock I prefer to hedge a bit with options. As for technical analysis it's a must but I usually look at everything. How do the fundamentals look, what kind of cash to debt do they have, if they don't make money how much do they burn through. What's the short interest look like, how much float as the lower floats can really move quickly but you have to be careful with them. Revs and earnings estimates for future growth. Then I look at the sector, how it's been doing, if I think it's hot or a value play. What's the chart look like, where is the support, how does it trade when testing the resistance level etc... 

I'm not great at charts, but always use them to get an idea of where I think the stock is headed. But other times I will just buy as a value play, other times I buy to dollar cost average into a position if I think I'm going to build it up over several years, buying small amounts on the dips. Sometimes I buy if they are expecting data/news soon to try and catch the pop and get out for some quick cash. Sometimes I buy because the chart looks like a good setup. So I don't follow any one rule to trading, often I go with my gut after all the years of experience but I also know that this is a business where being wrong can cost you a lot of money and you have to accept that at times you will be wrong even though it can be for the right reasons. The market can just do unexpected things that don't make sense, mainly because of illegal shorts and HFT but it can also work to your benefit as well. 

Here are some things I've done well with in Biotech- First the big/mid caps- REGN, GILD, KITE, BLUE, GWPH, JUNO, PCRX, ITCI, XON. I'm thinking of getting in CELG and NVS as I like both but waiting on some of the others to move up more so that I can take some more profits. GILD is a good long term hold, REGN might get bought out, KITE I like a lot, JUNO I don't know if they get bought by CELG or not. 

Now here's some small/micro caps that I've done well with, ACHN, RLYP, EXEL, FOLD, CEMP, SRPT, OPK, ATRA, ZIOP, SYN, PGNX, LPCN, SGYP, ABUS, IDRA, XOMA, MEIP.

Here's some that I like but haven't worked out yet, TTPH, OCUL, NBIX, ESPR, PTCT, ADXS, RCPI.

I think ACHN is going to be a big win, I love the story behind RCPI as it's a long term play for me but for now it's been my worst pick. They have a great drug though and I know their story better then any other stock I have ever researched. 

As for non Bio's, I have done well with FB and think it's a good long term hold. I just bought APPL at 115 but waiting to see where that goes. Really like TASR for the long term, SKX should be in the '40's in 6-9 months.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

FANG is keeping the stock market alive.


----------



## Ozz

montreal said:


> SKX should be in the '40's in 6-9 months.




I sure hope so. I bought when it dropped, but too soon as it continued to do so. Getting back to the 40s will be a great payoff here for being patient.

Me, I don't know much but I follow daily/weekly trends. For active trading I buy and sell on a swing and usually am in & out with profit anywhere from minutes to a couple days depending on how fast they prices move up (and hit my goals). 

I'm not sure what happened last week but everything I got into saw a loss or has stayed put. The rapid fluctuations stopped, but I trust (hope) they'll get back to it in a week or so. It sucks to sit and look at, but at least I have the time to wait for them to do what I bet on in the first place.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> I sure hope so. I bought when it dropped, but too soon as it continued to do so. Getting back to the 40s will be a great payoff here for being patient.
> 
> Me, I don't know much but I follow daily/weekly trends. For active trading I buy and sell on a swing and usually am in & out with profit anywhere from minutes to a couple days depending on how fast they prices move up (and hit my goals).
> 
> I'm not sure what happened last week but everything I got into saw a loss or has stayed put. The rapid fluctuations stopped, but I trust (hope) they'll get back to it in a week or so. It sucks to sit and look at, but at least I have the time to wait for them to do what I bet on in the first place.




it should, they put up some insane sales numbers for 3rd quarter and I would think that the 4th will be even better since it should be their time of year. I got it at around 20 post split but I added a small amount at 31. Not worried unless it falls through 20 then I will get concerned.


----------



## ChickenBurrito

Mike Emrick said:


> I base all my financial transactions on what "The Special One" would do




Probably why you still live at home?


----------



## GREMLIN

montreal said:


> I've been trading stocks since the early '90's, have worked for Vanguard Group, JPMorgan, Citi, etc... With Bio's it's a great time to start a position but you have to know what you are doing as it's high risk. But that's why people invest in them as they have major upside. Right now the sector has been getting thumped but should start working it's way back.
> 
> I mainly invest in US companies and I only trade off the Nasd/NYSE, and if I have a lot of money in one stock I prefer to hedge a bit with options. As for technical analysis it's a must but I usually look at everything. How do the fundamentals look, what kind of cash to debt do they have, if they don't make money how much do they burn through. What's the short interest look like, how much float as the lower floats can really move quickly but you have to be careful with them. Revs and earnings estimates for future growth. Then I look at the sector, how it's been doing, if I think it's hot or a value play. What's the chart look like, where is the support, how does it trade when testing the resistance level etc...
> 
> I'm not great at charts, but always use them to get an idea of where I think the stock is headed. But other times I will just buy as a value play, other times I buy to dollar cost average into a position if I think I'm going to build it up over several years, buying small amounts on the dips. Sometimes I buy if they are expecting data/news soon to try and catch the pop and get out for some quick cash. Sometimes I buy because the chart looks like a good setup. So I don't follow any one rule to trading, often I go with my gut after all the years of experience but I also know that this is a business where being wrong can cost you a lot of money and you have to accept that at times you will be wrong even though it can be for the right reasons. The market can just do unexpected things that don't make sense, mainly because of illegal shorts and HFT but it can also work to your benefit as well.
> 
> Here are some things I've done well with in Biotech- First the big/mid caps- REGN, GILD, KITE, BLUE, GWPH, JUNO, PCRX, ITCI, XON. I'm thinking of getting in CELG and NVS as I like both but waiting on some of the others to move up more so that I can take some more profits. GILD is a good long term hold, REGN might get bought out, KITE I like a lot, JUNO I don't know if they get bought by CELG or not.
> 
> Now here's some small/micro caps that I've done well with, ACHN, RLYP, EXEL, FOLD, CEMP, SRPT, OPK, ATRA, ZIOP, SYN, PGNX, LPCN, SGYP, ABUS, IDRA, XOMA, MEIP.
> 
> Here's some that I like but haven't worked out yet, TTPH, OCUL, NBIX, ESPR, PTCT, ADXS, RCPI.
> 
> I think ACHN is going to be a big win, I love the story behind RCPI as it's a long term play for me but for now it's been my worst pick. They have a great drug though and I know their story better then any other stock I have ever researched.
> 
> As for non Bio's, I have done well with FB and think it's a good long term hold. I just bought APPL at 115 but waiting to see where that goes. Really like TASR for the long term, SKX should be in the '40's in 6-9 months.




Thanks for the tips, dont ever hold back from posting here, it's super interesting for me and many others I'm sure.

I'll take a good look at the Biotechs you mentionned, add them to my watchlist and try to get familiar with their price actions to catch some dips. I see you're very high on ACHN, I might try to start a position in the future if the price can go a little lower, should've bought on the bad news that brought it back to 7 a couple weeks back, their HCV pipeline is very interesting as it reminds me of GILD who I had decent success with it, I just wish I sold the latter when it was at 120 to buy back lower, I gotta trust my instincts more, I have an easier time buying than selling, one of my teachers said that was really common with young investors.

I had never heard of RCPI, had quite a ride in the last couple years, seems like it's at an interesting level to start a position right now as the pain has settled down significantly the last 2 months, I wont be lazy and will try to do my research on them but do you think it will keep going lower short term? I know you do this professionally and might not be interested in giving that kind of advice to a random person on the internet, if thats the case I wont blame you for it at all but I would definitely trust you a lot more than any random guy on stocktwits or Seeking Alpha. The chart does look like it's been in consolidation for a while now and primed for a breakout. I just dont know if I have the nerves to invest in a stock that can lose 10% on any random day yet, that would be a first.

SKX is interesting, their long term chart was looking great up until their 3rd Q earnings, you guys seem pretty confident it's going back up soon, their rising inventory levels are a little worrisome for me but I'll definitely try to start a small position if it gets under 25, if it is indeed going back to the 40's that would easily be my best play yet.

TASR seems like their video cameras will be big in the future, will definitely keep an eye on that one too.

I like FB a lot too for the long term, I really like their management and I think they still have plenty of room to grow, they're making the right moves and I have no reason to believe they wont keep doing the same in the future.

EA and ATVI are two stocks that I'd like to get into as well, EA is huge in mobile gaming and I can't see that sector slowing down anytime soon.

As for Canadian stocks, I've been trying to add RCH to my portfolio for a while now, waited for a good dip all year but all it ever does is go up so I'm still waiting.

Anybody have an opinion on AMAYA gaming? Canadian company that owns most of the bigger online poker brands, went from 31 to 20 yesterday on weak earnings, should be volatile in the next couple weeks.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Thanks for the tips, dont ever hold back from posting here, it's super interesting for me and many others I'm sure.
> 
> I'll take a good look at the Biotechs you mentionned, add them to my watchlist and try to get familiar with their price actions to catch some dips. I see you're very high on ACHN, I might try to start a position in the future if the price can go a little lower, should've bought on the bad news that brought it back to 7 a couple weeks back, their HCV pipeline is very interesting as it reminds me of GILD who I had decent success with it, I just wish I sold the latter when it was at 120 to buy back lower, I gotta trust my instincts more, I have an easier time buying than selling, one of my teachers said that was really common with young investors.
> 
> I had never heard of RCPI, had quite a ride in the last couple years, seems like it's at an interesting level to start a position right now as the pain has settled down significantly the last 2 months, I wont be lazy and will try to do my research on them but do you think it will keep going lower short term? I know you do this professionally and might not be interested in giving that kind of advice to a random person on the internet, if thats the case I wont blame you for it at all but I would definitely trust you a lot more than any random guy on stocktwits or Seeking Alpha. The chart does look like it's been in consolidation for a while now and primed for a breakout. I just dont know if I have the nerves to invest in a stock that can lose 10% on any random day yet, that would be a first.
> 
> SKX is interesting, their long term chart was looking great up until their 3rd Q earnings, you guys seem pretty confident it's going back up soon, their rising inventory levels are a little worrisome for me but I'll definitely try to start a small position if it gets under 25, if it is indeed going back to the 40's that would easily be my best play yet.
> 
> TASR seems like their video cameras will be big in the future, will definitely keep an eye on that one too.




yea very high on ACHN's future prospects, it got knocked down because many thought they would get bought out but instead opted to a do a deal with J&J for 1.1 Billion payment and they bought 500M in stock. They should be coming out with data soon on their 4 week treatment which GILD has already said they can't do 4 weeks. 

RCPI the management has done a terrible job but they have a truly great product. Look into inflammation and how many things relate to it. Then look into the product Anatabloc. It's no longer sold but I took it and it worked great, they are working on it as a drug vs supplement and they have run into many problems from shorts to the FDA but they have something great. Just keep an eye on it as they should be starting Phase II in the next few months, once that's done it could get moving. It's a high risk high reward type. 

TASR is very well set up and there's no way it should be this low, should be in the 40's over the next 12 months, they are going to start making a lot of money.


----------



## steafo

As a newbie I am doing my own digging and learning. I just came across the term RSI. How important is that for a metric to use? It seems like something very valuable to the investor. I guess what do you believe to be the best ways to value a potential investment?


----------



## Satan

buy low and sell high



thats what i do


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## montreal

steafo said:


> As a newbie I am doing my own digging and learning. I just came across the term RSI. How important is that for a metric to use? It seems like something very valuable to the investor. I guess what do you believe to be the best ways to value a potential investment?




It depends on what you are trying to and how much importance you put on technical metrics. For new investors I think dollar cost average is an easier way to go since it's for longer term so you don't need to focus much on reading charts which can take many years to really get a good grasp on. 

RSI is the relative strength index, what it's telling you is a low score would mean it's oversold so it might be a good time to buy and a high score means it's overbought and might be a good time to take some profits. Personally I don't use it that much, while I don't do anything without looking at the charts first, I'm not heavy into technical metrics. Charts while very useful can be misleading, for me after 20 years of trading I try to use all the info I can gather but trust my gut over anything else. 

Here's an example, I recently bought 75 shares of APPL at 115 on the day they reported earnings just based on the fact that I felt China was being overblown and that they would do well in their earnings. I should have been keeping an eye on the RSI as it was creeping into the 70's which means it's overbought. I could have gotten out with a 6-7 point profit and got back in at around the same price I got but with an extra $450/525 minus transaction costs. But since it was only 75 shares and I had planned on holding this long term I didn't bother with it.


----------



## hitman9172

An absolute must-read for all young investors:

"If You Can: How to Get Rich Slowly" by William Bernstein - https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

Probably the two best forums for new stock market investors. Both are full of posters who became millionaires through saving and long-term investing:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/index.php


----------



## GREMLIN

TASR, SKX and many others looking really good exactly like montreal said they would


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> TASR, SKX and many others looking really good exactly like montreal said they would




it was a good day for sure. Still think TASR and SKX have a lot more to go. Almost bought in some SUNE yesterday at 2.87, not sure if it's a smart move but down from 30's and the balance sheet is a bit of mess but thought it would bounce today. Oh well maybe it will drop tomorrow or Friday and maybe I'll pick up a few hundred shares.

Might do the same with CLVS, I almost bought it at 68 but liked others and I'm overloaded with Bio's. Thought I made a big mistake when it broke 100 but then the FDA asks for more data and it drops to 26. Will be keeping an eye on it to see where support comes in at and how it trades the next few days. Might jump in with a small buy and see how it goes. 

Waiting for a good price on SGEN, TRVN, ALDR to get in. TXNP is another good one, have been building up a position for some time but think later next year they should be in the 20's or 30's.


----------



## steafo

montreal said:


> it was a good day for sure. Still think TASR and SKX have a lot more to go. Almost bought in some SUNE yesterday at 2.87, not sure if it's a smart move but down from 30's and the balance sheet is a bit of mess but thought it would bounce today. Oh well maybe it will drop tomorrow or Friday and maybe I'll pick up a few hundred shares.
> 
> Might do the same with CLVS, I almost bought it at 68 but liked others and I'm overloaded with Bio's. Thought I made a big mistake when it broke 100 but then the FDA asks for more data and it drops to 26. Will be keeping an eye on it to see where support comes in at and how it trades the next few days. Might jump in with a small buy and see how it goes.
> 
> Waiting for a good price on SGEN, TRVN, ALDR to get in. TXNP is another good one, have been building up a position for some time but think later next year they should be in the 20's or 30's.




Do you have any insight as to why TASR bounced from 17.40 or so to low 16's then back to 18? I haven't read anything that makes sense to me. Again, I'm a newbie so I'm just looking for what someone more seasoned looks at when you see something bouncing around that much over 2-3 days.


----------



## GREMLIN

steafo said:


> Do you have any insight as to why TASR bounced from 17.40 or so to low 16's then back to 18? I haven't read anything that makes sense to me. Again, I'm a newbie so I'm just looking for what someone more seasoned looks at when you see something bouncing around that much over 2-3 days.




I think yesterday's bounce came from the news of LAPD announcing they had a deal set in order to buy 6K body cameras and from a couple analysts rating upgrade.


----------



## Ozz

My bios are all killing me this month. All looked poised to rally and...crash. Planning to hold on but they seem to be going nowhere and I'm not sure when to give in.

In other news, NFLX and WTW are ridiculous lately. I am in, out, in, out, skipping the dips and just keep cashing in.


----------



## montreal

steafo said:


> Do you have any insight as to why TASR bounced from 17.40 or so to low 16's then back to 18? I haven't read anything that makes sense to me. Again, I'm a newbie so I'm just looking for what someone more seasoned looks at when you see something bouncing around that much over 2-3 days.




Well it was extremely oversold on earnings which weren't bad to begin with. It broke a key support level but had some good news as they should be announcing a big order with London, NY and LAPD as well as working on a deal with the UN as the CEO has been in France a few weeks ago to work on a deal with the UN. This was trading at 36 when they had a good earnings report but said that the 3rd quarter would be more or less the same as the 2nd and since then it's been getting hammered. It has a large short position that got burned bad when this moved from the 10 dollar range through the 20's and into the mid 30's. 



Ozz said:


> My bios are all killing me this month. All looked poised to rally and...crash. Planning to hold on but they seem to be going nowhere and I'm not sure when to give in




what bio's, I am heavy into bio's as I have been buying them up left and right since August. I've done a ton of research on the sector over the past 2 years so I might be able to shed some light on things depending on if they are ones I own, have owned or track.


----------



## Ozz

montreal said:


> Well it was extremely oversold on earnings which weren't bad to begin with. It broke a key support level but had some good news as they should be announcing a big order with London, NY and LAPD as well as working on a deal with the UN as the CEO has been in France a few weeks ago to work on a deal with the UN. This was trading at 36 when they had a good earnings report but said that the 3rd quarter would be more or less the same as the 2nd and since then it's been getting hammered. It has a large short position that got burned bad when this moved from the 10 dollar range through the 20's and into the mid 30's.
> 
> 
> 
> what bio's, I am heavy into bio's as I have been buying them up left and right since August. I've done a ton of research on the sector over the past 2 years so I might be able to shed some light on things depending on if they are ones I own, have owned or track.




Thanks for the thoughts! I appreciate any input. 

MACK & AFMD - had a half dozen or so moves for these in Oct. that yielded from 500-1500 in profits with 10-40 cent increases. These aren't so bad right now but I did expect they'd have gone up by now. From what I see, most feel they have a positive outlook next month. I haven't got too much into them and they're not losing too much yet, so I can sit.



IMMY - this one has given me similar success with similar moves, but not as frequently. I bought in at 7.29 when that was looking to be/be close to the support line. I was looking for anywhere into the 8s but it lost instead. I didn't put a stop on it because I thought it may come back up as quickly as it dropped, but it just kept dropping and is now into the 5s. This one has lost me over 2x what the other two combined have.


My non-bio killer, CAR (Avis), was just a stupid buy at the time. Since it bottomed it's been doing well, but I still have a ways to go to earn what I lost. It dropped to low 50s and I bet on it going up a dollar or so. It dropped 10  Another case of not putting a stop on it because it appeared volatile enough in both directions to not worry. So much for that!


----------



## GREMLIN

montreal said:


> Almost bought in some SUNE yesterday at 2.87, not sure if it's a smart move but down from 30's and the balance sheet is a bit of mess but thought it would bounce today. Oh well maybe it will drop tomorrow or Friday and maybe I'll pick up a few hundred shares.




Back to 2.86, are you going to try and catch a bounce?

I'm not that risk averse personally.

BTW thanks again for the idea on SKX I chased it yesterday am and it was an excellent decision, I usually try to not chase stocks after a big bounce but I had a good feeling it was going to keep going based on your input and the chart, will stay in for a while now. Do you just hold it until it reaches your target or do you usually sell some after the big bounces, I'm thinking I'll hold until at least 40.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> Thanks for the thoughts! I appreciate any input.
> 
> MACK & AFMD - had a half dozen or so moves for these in Oct. that yielded from 500-1500 in profits with 10-40 cent increases. These aren't so bad right now but I did expect they'd have gone up by now. From what I see, most feel they have a positive outlook next month. I haven't got too much into them and they're not losing too much yet, so I can sit.
> 
> IMMY - this one has given me similar success with similar moves, but not as frequently. I bought in at 7.29 when that was looking to be/be close to the support line. I was looking for anywhere into the 8s but it lost instead. I didn't put a stop on it because I thought it may come back up as quickly as it dropped, but it just kept dropping and is now into the 5s. This one has lost me over 2x what the other two combined have.




I own MACK and have been in and out of it a couple times. Very disappointed in the black box label, went through it with ARIA and got out too soon with only small profits although it's never really done much since but I had a lot at the time at a really good price (mid 4's to 6). I just bought back in on Friday but I'm thinking of dumping it as I have a few others that I like more but I'm waiting on the price to drop to the range I want. I do think there is upside at this level I just don't know if it's going to trade sideways for too long say 8 to 11 range. I don't have that much as my last buy I only bought 300 shares just trying to catch a little bounce. Will keep an eye on it though if I get it out as I got to think it will be in the 20's at some down the road I just don't know how long of a wait.

AFMD isn't one I track but I just added it to my list as it has some interesting qualities so I want to do some more research. The chart though would have me concerned if it doesn't hold the support at 6. I'd keep a close eye on it although we could have some overall factors in the coming days that could impact the entire sector. There's the possible Pfizer deal at 150 Billion, if that goes through it might trigger more M&A. Tomorrow we should get some info from the FDA on BRMN's drug which also means SRPT and PTCT could be impacted but I've heard talk that if it goes well these guys are going to be in high demand and could cause a jump in the sector unless it goes the other way. There's also the news from United Healthcare which may get out of Obamacare and that is something to keep an eye on if any others join them and then what it could mean to the healthcare sector overall. 

I don't know IMMY, I know the chart is troubling now that it's broken support. I have a few that I'm getting hit hard on but it's always a tough call to stick with possible more losses, cut and run or double down. Several of the bio's I had that got hit hard I added more when I saw a price that I liked. It worked well on most but not all which just put me down further. Since overall I think the bio-tech sector is due for a turnaround I'm holding my dogs with fleas but I am very concerned about how the president race starts shaping up by the Spring so I'm hoping that I can take some major profits before then in case Clinton gets in and goes after bio's again. 



Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Back to 2.86, are you going to try and catch a bounce?
> 
> I'm not that risk averse personally.
> 
> BTW thanks again for the idea on SKX I chased it yesterday am and it was an excellent decision, I usually try to not chase stocks after a big bounce but I had a good feeling it was going to keep going based on your input and the chart, will stay in for a while now. Do you just hold it until it reaches your target or do you usually sell some after the big bounces, I'm thinking I'll hold until at least 40.




In the case of SKX like TASR when I feel they have big upside, I don't get in and out. I don't have a ton of SKX but with the quarter they just had I'm going to sit on these shares till 40's or 50's however long it takes. TASR I have much bigger position in but I will hold that likely a very long time, might take some profits in the 40's depending on how it's trading. 

Other times I look at what the market is telling me, if I feel I need to get out early I will. Since I buy different things for different reasons it's more like a case by case basis. 

As for SUNE I will hold off for now and see how it trades the next few days although tomorrow is options expiration so if it gets hit hard enough I might pick up some at the end of the day. I would only buy a small amount either way.


----------



## Ozz

montreal said:


> I own MACK and have been in and out of it a couple times. Very disappointed in the black box label, went through it with ARIA and got out too soon with only small profits although it's never really done much since but I had a lot at the time at a really good price (mid 4's to 6). I just bought back in on Friday but I'm thinking of dumping it as I have a few others that I like more but I'm waiting on the price to drop to the range I want. I do think there is upside at this level I just don't know if it's going to trade sideways for too long say 8 to 11 range. I don't have that much as my last buy I only bought 300 shares just trying to catch a little bounce. Will keep an eye on it though if I get it out as I got to think it will be in the 20's at some down the road I just don't know how long of a wait.
> 
> AFMD isn't one I track but I just added it to my list as it has some interesting qualities so I want to do some more research. The chart though would have me concerned if it doesn't hold the support at 6. I'd keep a close eye on it although we could have some overall factors in the coming days that could impact the entire sector. There's the possible Pfizer deal at 150 Billion, if that goes through it might trigger more M&A. Tomorrow we should get some info from the FDA on BRMN's drug which also means SRPT and PTCT could be impacted but I've heard talk that if it goes well these guys are going to be in high demand and could cause a jump in the sector unless it goes the other way. There's also the news from United Healthcare which may get out of Obamacare and that is something to keep an eye on if any others join them and then what it could mean to the healthcare sector overall.
> 
> I don't know IMMY, I know the chart is troubling now that it's broken support. I have a few that I'm getting hit hard on but it's always a tough call to stick with possible more losses, cut and run or double down. Several of the bio's I had that got hit hard I added more when I saw a price that I liked. It worked well on most but not all which just put me down further. Since overall I think the bio-tech sector is due for a turnaround I'm holding my dogs with fleas but I am very concerned about how the president race starts shaping up by the Spring so I'm hoping that I can take some major profits before then in case Clinton gets in and goes after bio's again.





Thanks for the input. Pretty much the same feelings I have, to hold for now and see how it goes. Part of me wants to take what I have invested in my losses and put it on a quicker winner and make up the difference, then buy in by the time these losers are ready to run again. But after I take my planned swing profits tomorrow/early next week, I'll have enough to play around with while these sit idle.


10/20 edit: IMMY gained back 22.8% today. That's more than half of what I had lost so far; I'm tempted to cut out here to watch it in the next couple days and decide whether or not to be happy I got this much back or join a possible rally. The chart looks safer to me than it has been, but I just don't know how much weight to put into this 1 day.


----------



## Ozz

Made it out with $9000+ from KBIO today. Didn't expect that much of a rally at this point  

Saw some other smaller, quicker scores as well throughout the day good for 430-800 each. Great week to make up for (and then some) the missteps I mentioned before. All but 2 of those have almost earned their losses back as well since I've stayed in my positions. At this point, cutting even is better than a loss as far as the bottom line goes.


----------



## John Price

http://www.businessinsider.com/stockpile-sells-gifts-cards-for-stock-2015-11



> The next time you're in a Kmart, OfficeMax, Wegmans, Safeway, or another major retail chain, take a minute to peer at the gift cards by the register.
> 
> Some might be for stock.
> 
> Since early October, the California-based company Stockpile has offered physical gift cards in stores to present loved ones with $25, $50, or $100 of stock ownership.
> 
> "We're making it easy and affordable for anybody to give, get, and own stock in their favorite companies," says Avi Lele, Stockpile's cofounder and CEO.
> 
> Here's how it works: You spot a Stockpile gift card at the store (or choose a virtual version online), and buy a card that's worth $50 of Apple stock for your niece's graduation. She goes online, creates an account by entering basic information including her date of birth and Social Security number, and types in a code from the card to redeem her stock.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mike Emrick said:


> http://www.businessinsider.com/stockpile-sells-gifts-cards-for-stock-2015-11




This is an obvious sign that we are in a bubble.


----------



## GREMLIN

Amazing day for the markets, nice to see the TSX get going finally.

SKX is absolutely killing it. The CEO will be on Cramer's show on CNBC tonight, should bring some more good news.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Interested to see what happens when/if the interest rate is increased in December. 

Don't think there will be too much of an impact since it is expected, but will be interesting to see nevertheless.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Amazing day for the markets, nice to see the TSX get going finally.
> 
> SKX is absolutely killing it. The CEO will be on Cramer's show on CNBC tonight, should bring some more good news.




I'm kicking myself for not buying more SKX at 25 as I was going too but already increased my cost basis once and while it would have increased it much less at 25 then it did at 31, I rarely make a move when it increases my cost basis. Likely going to regret that one though as I don't think it will take too long to break 40 and should be 50 within 12 months if not 60. 



Ducksforcup said:


> Interested to see what happens when/if the interest rate is increased in December.
> 
> Don't think there will be too much of an impact since it is expected, but will be interesting to see nevertheless.




I don't know if they will raise or not, holding some cash and have a few things that are up a good bit that I should be able to move to cash and still have nice gains if they do/don't and the reaction gets overblown. 

That said the concerning thing is that no one really seems to understand how to trade this. The market doesn't seem to know if it wants rates to stay low but that means the economy isn't going as good so stocks could sell off, or they raise .25 and that could spell higher rates are coming over the next few years (which is likely going to happen at some point) which stocks might sell off but that means our economy is doing better. 

In the past I thought they wouldn't raise till March, really not sure what they will do now though. I started slowly picking up some Financials in case they do but don't want to pick up too many yet as I am leaning towards no increase this month.


----------



## GREMLIN

montreal said:


> I'm kicking myself for not buying more SKX at 25 as I was going too but already increased my cost basis once and while it would have increased it much less at 25 then it did at 31, I rarely make a move when it increases my cost basis. Likely going to regret that one though as I don't think it will take too long to break 40 and should be 50 within 12 months if not 60.




Yeah I first started following SKX after you said how bullish you were on it but didnt buy in immediately, started a pretty big position by my standards at 26.8 after the first big run, added about 30% to my position just under 29 as I couldnt help but want more shares seeing how strong it looked, current average is 27.46 and I'm loving it, been restraining myself not to buy more because I definitely feel like it. Whats your plan for earnings? I'm thinking I'll sell maybe half just to lock some profits in case it sinks. Not fixed on that yet, the CEO and COO were on Cramer's show on CNBC yesterday and seemed very excited about their activities in China, also said they had a great month in november.

I'm not in TASR yet, still looking for a lower entry, I'm still trying to figure that one out as they've announced a couple new contracts yet it has trouble taking off. I'm hoping it goes back closer to 17 to start a position.

I've been looking into WFM as a value play, doesnt seem like it wants to go lower than that but I'm still holding off for now, doing more research on it.

Still looking at all the biotechs you mentionned in the previous page but havent bought anything yet, I'm not too trigger happy, I set low alerts and try not to buy if I think most of the run up is already done.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Yeah I first started following SKX after you said how bullish you were on it but didnt buy in immediately, started a pretty big position by my standards at 26.8 after the first big run, added about 30% to my position just under 29 as I couldnt help but want more shares seeing how strong it looked, current average is 27.46 and I'm loving it, been restraining myself not to buy more because I definitely feel like it. Whats your plan for earnings? I'm thinking I'll sell maybe half just to lock some profits in case it sinks. Not fixed on that yet, the CEO and COO were on Cramer's show on CNBC yesterday and seemed very excited about their activities in China, also said they had a great month in november.
> 
> I'm not in TASR yet, still looking for a lower entry, I'm still trying to figure that one out as they've announced a couple new contracts yet it has trouble taking off. I'm hoping it goes back closer to 17 to start a position.
> 
> I've been looking into WFM as a value play, doesnt seem like it wants to go lower than that but I'm still holding off for now, doing more research on it.
> 
> Still looking at all the biotechs you mentionned in the previous page but havent bought anything yet, I'm not too trigger happy, I set low alerts and try not to buy if I think most of the run up is already done.




My cost basis is under 23 but I don't have a ton so I likely will just hold this long term no matter what. Maybe sell a bit between 40/50. I would think they have a big 4th quarter.

TASR is going to make a lot of money in the future, should be 40 but I expect 50 or 60 within the next 2 years. This used to be over 100 way back and they did a big stock split and then disappointed on earnings and it got crushed. Don't like the way it's been trading but shorts have been all over them in the past, I don't get it as these guys are the clear market leader and have a great position. Might need a new CEO at some point as they need to be a much better job on the conference calls. 

Bio's you really have to be careful with. ACHN should either go up big or get crushed soon, lots of things are close to happening there. I'm in heavy on that one. RYLP has been really good to me and I could see them getting bought out. SRPT goes in front of the FDA next month, that one could fly as well, have done well but took some profits. I like SGEN as the Baker Brothers just bought up a lot.


----------



## GREMLIN

Lot of bargains today.

Im adding SKX and GILD.

Eager to see what happens tomorrow and next week but the times I didnt buy on days like this I usually regretted it.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Lot of bargains today.
> 
> Im adding SKX and GILD.
> 
> Eager to see what happens tomorrow and next week but the times I didnt buy on days like this I usually regretted it.




Got out of a few bio's yesterday, wish I had waited on the buys till this afternoon but at least I didn't buy too much. Good day to pick up shares on the cheap, I held off in case we see more of this tomorrow, but even if not I assume things get really choppy between now and the 16th so I've been building up cash for then. Just making small moves for now.


----------



## Thucydides

325,000 shares in global gardens group.


----------



## QnebO

stingo said:


> Hey stock dudes -
> 
> Let me know what you think of this company I just stumbled upon back in the summer called "global gardens group" trading on the tiny Canadian securities exchange.
> 
> Basically they have had this product in development called "veggemo" since 2003 and its finally making it's way into stores now. I've tried the product myself and it tastes awesome. It's a non diary beverage made from potatoes, tapioca , and pea protein. No gmos, kosher , and vegan. It's super healthy, and tastes great as a milk substitute in baking. I've had it in cereal, with shakes , and with coffee. Tastes great in all, and what's better than now incorporating vegetables into my coffee and everyday meals.
> 
> When I thought of the bigger picture , with global warming, climate change and all that's happening, I thought the potential was going to be huge, not to mention it allows people to incorporate vegetables into their diets in new healthy ways. I sound like a shameless promoter , but I'm not , I just went to know if I'm way out in left field from people who do this for a living .
> 
> Here's what I know of the company - there's some big suits on it, ex directors of big dairy farms, lulu lemon execs, marketing teams from Kraft , Ben and Jerrys, etc.
> 
> I'm pretty sure I've stumbled upon the next "big" corporation. Who knows.
> 
> The product is in Walmart super centres and has a lot of shelf space and they're planning on taking it into the usa in 2016. 1800 stores by the end of the first quarter .
> 
> www.veggemo.com
> 
> I've accumulated about 100,000 shares of this thing since August. Haha .




Sounds fine idea if the product price is right (low).


----------



## Thucydides

QnebO said:


> Sounds fine idea if the product price is right (low).




It sells for the same price as almond milk and rice milk and soy milk. 2.97 a carton.


----------



## Ozz

Lost a ****ton on bios this month already. Not sure what the hell happened but every play I made was time wrong and I didn't get out quickly enough to soften the blow. Hoping for some sort of rebound when the market picks up before I write it off. Probably not wise, but at this point.

Going to go back to my original swing plans as I get out of this hole.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> Lost a ****ton on bios this month already. Not sure what the hell happened but every play I made was time wrong and I didn't get out quickly enough to soften the blow. Hoping for some sort of rebound when the market picks up before I write it off. Probably not wise, but at this point.
> 
> Going to go back to my original swing plans as I get out of this hole.




I got out of MACK with a small profit, RLYP is on fire on buyout rumors got a nice profit there. ACHN should hopefully have some good news soon. I added a bit this morning to my XON, SGEN, AQXP and NWBO (getting crushed on that one), was surprised when I got back home hours late to see the turnaround in BIO's.

I'm looking to get back in on FOLD after taking some good profits almost bought it today but held off. Same with TRVN, TGTX, had hoped to buy ino CLVS and ALDR but they just haven't fallen into my range. I paid too much for SGEN so wanted to lower my cost basis by adding a bit today, the Baker Brothers have been buying up shares so will be keeping an eye on that one. CEMP, SRPT, PCRX, SAGE have been good to me of late. EXEL, LPCN, NBIX are some others to keep an eye on, plus I own all these that are tied together (XON, ZIOP, HALO, SYN)


----------



## Ozz

montreal said:


> I got out of MACK with a small profit, RLYP is on fire on buyout rumors got a nice profit there. ACHN should hopefully have some good news soon. I added a bit this morning to my XON, SGEN, AQXP and NWBO (getting crushed on that one), was surprised when I got back home hours late to see the turnaround in BIO's.
> 
> I'm looking to get back in on FOLD after taking some good profits almost bought it today but held off. Same with TRVN, TGTX, had hoped to buy ino CLVS and ALDR but they just haven't fallen into my range. I paid too much for SGEN so wanted to lower my cost basis by adding a bit today, the Baker Brothers have been buying up shares so will be keeping an eye on that one. CEMP, SRPT, PCRX, SAGE have been good to me of late. EXEL, LPCN, NBIX are some others to keep an eye on, plus I own all these that are tied together (XON, ZIOP, HALO, SYN)




I'd always done well with Mack, but this time I held too long and it never went anywhere. I was going to get out a few days ago with a little more profit but thought it had another day's worth of gain. It fell off and I was not much worse for the wear. 

I've been looking at EXEL for a while but none of the others you mention; EXEL has been getting some mention but I'm not seeing it move as expected. For the rest of the month I'll be pretty gun-shy about hopping into anything too quick; my trouble was that the rallies only last long enough to buy and they plummeted by the time I could enter my stops. Then all hell broke loose and I just held and lost too much. I'm hoping for long-term holds to recover, thankfully I have enough elsewhere that I can work with in the meantime to realize some gains, and the unrealized losses will eventually even out or become gains. I just can't see taking that much loss at once. I threw away enough losers this year already.


----------



## John Price

What's with the ****ing DOW JONES man going DOWN


----------



## Alex Jones

Ozz said:


> Made it out with $9000+ from KBIO today. Didn't expect that much of a rally at this point
> 
> Saw some other smaller, quicker scores as well throughout the day good for 430-800 each. Great week to make up for (and then some) the missteps I mentioned before. All but 2 of those have almost earned their losses back as well since I've stayed in my positions. At this point, cutting even is better than a loss as far as the bottom line goes.



Holy **** you played KBIO?? Youve got way more balls than me.


----------



## Alex Jones

montreal said:


> I got out of MACK with a small profit, RLYP is on fire on buyout rumors got a nice profit there. ACHN should hopefully have some good news soon. I added a bit this morning to my XON, SGEN, AQXP and NWBO (getting crushed on that one), was surprised when I got back home hours late to see the turnaround in BIO's.
> 
> I'm looking to get back in on FOLD after taking some good profits almost bought it today but held off. Same with TRVN, TGTX, had hoped to buy ino CLVS and ALDR but they just haven't fallen into my range. I paid too much for SGEN so wanted to lower my cost basis by adding a bit today, the Baker Brothers have been buying up shares so will be keeping an eye on that one. CEMP, SRPT, PCRX, SAGE have been good to me of late. EXEL, LPCN, NBIX are some others to keep an eye on, plus I own all these that are tied together (XON, ZIOP, HALO, SYN)



Bought RLYP when it gapped dowwn. Still up large even though its struggling. Will add after tomorrows bloodbath.


----------



## Alex Jones

Current holdings RLYP, XON, BXLT. Sold out AMGN, will add back after the bloodbath is done.

Just sold BTX.

Looking to add ARRY, RIGL, VTL on bounce.

Oh yea, still on my third year holding RHT.


----------



## Dog

Will GPRO rebound this year


----------



## Alex Jones

Doland said:


> Will GPRO rebound this year



I would say no. The market for the gopro is pretty small. Not many people are going to want this thing, and most people that would want it already have it. There are few reasons to upgrade models, and I dont see a sustainable long term business model. There is a reason people are bailing ship like crazy.


----------



## Dog

Alex Jones said:


> I would say no. The market for the gopro is pretty small. Not many people are going to want this thing, and most people that would want it already have it. There are few reasons to upgrade models, and I dont see a sustainable long term business model. There is a reason people are bailing ship like crazy.




Thats what I had thought as well. It doesn't seem like an item they can really change up too much. I just noticed that they have taken a huge tumble and maybe others had a somewhat positive perspective. Seems like everyone thinks they are a one trick pony.


----------



## John Price

will MARKET rebound


----------



## Ozz

Yes. I'm personally playing TVIX and XIV to win on both sides.

China is looking good tonight compared to what everyone expected. Should continue a bit and then go up and down for a while. We ought to follow accordingly.


----------



## Satan

buy low, zaide high


----------



## montreal

Alex Jones said:


> Current holdings RLYP, XON, BXLT. Sold out AMGN, will add back after the bloodbath is done.
> 
> Just sold BTX.
> 
> Looking to add ARRY, RIGL, VTL on bounce.
> 
> Oh yea, still on my third year holding RHT.




I got RLYP at 12 and will just hold as I think it gets bought out, if not then hopefully sales are good. Own XON, taking a hit but will likely add more soon, own the basket of HALO, ZIOP, SYN. Almost got in on BXLT but waited too long. Own ARRY but disappointed, sold a little a few weeks back so I don't have much of it, will likely just hold to see if it gets bought. Thinking about getting back into ACAD as the price is attractive, maybe FOLD and AGEN as well.



Doland said:


> Will GPRO rebound this year




it might, I'm just glad I got out in the 50's. Might look at it again down the road, not really a fan



Mike Emrick said:


> will MARKET rebound




of course, this is all way overblown and has created some great buying opp but I think you need to be very careful what you buy. Expect a lot of choppiness going forward once it settles in.


----------



## Alex Jones

You may playing ARRY for a potential buyout??? 

That stock has been like a sledgehammer to the head for my portfolio, but I will buy back in again.


----------



## montreal

Alex Jones said:


> You may playing ARRY for a potential buyout???
> 
> That stock has been like a sledgehammer to the head for my portfolio, but I will buy back in again.




I didn't like the way ARRY was trading so I trimmed it down, but with only 700 shares at around 4.5, I don't have much skin in the game so I will just keep what I have and see what happens. I could see it getting bought out but I'm interested to hear what they say on Wed at the JPM conference. 

Take a look at TNXP, their 3rd drug should have data out in the next few weeks but in the 2nd Qrt their PTSD drug data should be out and in the 3rd Qrt their Phase III for Fibro should out. SRPT goes in front of the FDA on the 22nd, so that could pop as their is no current drug on the market and BRMN's drug's not looking good.


----------



## GREMLIN

Hey montreal,

I was going to PM you but I thought I might as well try to revive this thread. 

I've been looking at RCPI ever since you mentionned it. I like the current price and was wondering if you would recommend getting in right now.

The Company is poised to conduct a proof of concept clinical trial to investigate the safety and efficacy of topical formulations of its lead compound in patients suffering from mild-to-moderate psoriasis and it seems like their 2016 year will highly depend on whether it's successful or not.

I've done my research but since you're a lot more experienced than I am with Biotechs I was wondering if you would plese offer your insight. 

If there are other names you feel like sharing whatever the sector please go ahead.

In the last couple months I've had some success with one of your ideas in SKX but didn't want to hold into earnings so I missed out on most of the profits.


----------



## bWo*

How do you guys feel about encana?


----------



## Baby Punisher

Doland said:


> Will GPRO rebound this year




Man that was a $60 stock a year ago. The short players must have had a field day.


----------



## Ozz

I've been killing it with ZFGN, riding from 5-6 range to right around 10, and scalping in & out since as it floats around. I'm holding a few thousand right now and it's started to gain some ground this past week quite well. Long term expectations from many are 12-15, but 10 is my "easy target". 

I'm heavily into LABU as well, though I know many don't like it. Of course, they like LABD instead based on current trends alone so that doesn't say much. You can get in & out of those quickly and profitable as well if you want to be active; it's easy to see how it tracks and where it'll go. Bio sector has been annihilated since late Dec; once it recovers this alone ought to make my next few years


----------



## montreal

El Donald said:


> Bought RLYP when it gapped dowwn. Still up large even though its struggling. Will add after tomorrows bloodbath.




hope you were still holding onto RLYP, looks like it's getting bought out, should see the 40's at some point. I took a little profit in case it pulls back and I will just add some more. Bio's have been heating up but I don't know if it's more of a head fake or a legit bounce off some very over sold conditions. 



Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Hey montreal,
> 
> I was going to PM you but I thought I might as well try to revive this thread.
> 
> I've been looking at RCPI ever since you mentionned it. I like the current price and was wondering if you would recommend getting in right now.
> 
> The Company is poised to conduct a proof of concept clinical trial to investigate the safety and efficacy of topical formulations of its lead compound in patients suffering from mild-to-moderate psoriasis and it seems like their 2016 year will highly depend on whether it's successful or not.
> 
> I've done my research but since you're a lot more experienced than I am with Biotechs I was wondering if you would plese offer your insight.
> 
> If there are other names you feel like sharing whatever the sector please go ahead.
> 
> In the last couple months I've had some success with one of your ideas in SKX but didn't want to hold into earnings so I missed out on most of the profits.




RCPI their future is going to be what they do for Alzheimer's as they had a top doctor in the field that was running the Roskamp Institute leave that job and his job as CEO of his own private Bio-tech in the UK, Archer to join RCPI. The stock has been doing nothing but going down since they opted to go from selling Antablock as a supplement to a drug. They should have Phase II done this year but it's what Anatabine does for other things like MS, Alzheimer's, etc... that is going to make this stock worth a ton in the future, if they can hold on long enough as someone has been hell bent on pushing the stock down. 

I just added a little SKX today since they report earnings later this month and have crushed their earnings the last 2 quarters. I don't like to buy when it raises my cost basis but I only added a little as I'm still worried about the overall market and where it's headed. 

I would recommend taking a long look at ACHN, it's going to do big things for Hep C. I also think GWPH is going to be a big winner, it's been a roller coaster ride but has high upside. XON with Zika likely getting a lot of headlines this summer, their CEO has a great track record, I own all the stocks he's involved with as well.


----------



## SladeWilson23

I should invest in the stock market.


----------



## KareemTrustfund

Glenn Rhee said:


> I should invest in the stock market.




Bah gawd man. You're a genius! Pure genius! If your face wasn't so pimply and covered in dry skin I'd kiss you!

Instead of investing in individuals stocks, invest in the Stock Market as a whole. Brilliant! Sure fired way to make big dollars. Nobody but me and Fabio here are allowed to use this idea.


----------



## montreal

SKX crushed their earnings last quarter. That's 3 quarters in a row with record profits for them. I picked up a little more when it pulled back but kicking myself for not getting a good bit more as they are just crushing sales/revs. Not sure why this isn't a 40 dollar stock already. Now just need TASR and my long list of bio's to break out.


----------



## Ozz

Ozz said:


> I've been killing it with ZFGN, riding from 5-6 range to right around 10, and scalping in & out since as it floats around. I'm holding a few thousand right now and it's started to gain some ground this past week quite well. Long term expectations from many are 12-15, but 10 is my "easy target".
> 
> I'm heavily into LABU as well, though I know many don't like it. Of course, they like LABD instead based on current trends alone so that doesn't say much. You can get in & out of those quickly and profitable as well if you want to be active; it's easy to see how it tracks and where it'll go. Bio sector has been annihilated since late Dec; once it recovers this alone ought to make my next few years




LABU has been killing it this past month


----------



## montreal

bio's continue their bumpy ride. FDA screws over SRPT and all the kids that need the drug.


----------



## hockeyfish

Considering going in on Solar City soon. Not sure though.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> LABU has been killing it this past month




been a rough 2 weeks for Bio's, Labu, ibb, etc... Crazy how cheap some of these bio's are. 



hockeyfish said:


> Considering going in on Solar City soon. Not sure though.




it's been getting beaten up lately, perhaps to to SUNE but I like the solar sector in general. I almost bought Solar City at 19, so waiting to see if it gets back under 20. Plus I may move a lot of things to cash so and wait till November to buy again unless prices get too cheap to pass up.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

Anyone have experience with RobinHood?


----------



## Thucydides

any chance solar city reaches their old highs? i've been thinking of dipping my toe into the solar energy sector, and solar city seems like a good place to start, for sure.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

investing in anything and everything green/organic/etc. is a very viable strategy


----------



## montreal

stingo said:


> any chance solar city reaches their old highs? i've been thinking of dipping my toe into the solar energy sector, and solar city seems like a good place to start, for sure.




I do think they can reach their old highs, I'm keeping an eye on it but not buying anything right now until the Fed decision, and the British EU decision next month. Might even wait till the election crap is over with as it will give more time to see if the US is headed for a recession or not. Have been moving some things into cash a few weeks ago, might move a good bit more by next week or two. 

I like solar a lot though.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Kinda scary time. Some pretty high profile investors have launched some major short positions.

Still love it though.


----------



## LickTheEnvelope

Markets all over the place right now


----------



## montreal

bios continue their up and down ride, still think there is huge upside longterm in this sector. The short term for the market is very troubling with the Fed, the elections, China and the rest of the world's slow down. Plus if oil were to drop it would likely cause a lot of red in the market. But if you can wait it out, there could be some very cheap stocks especially in the bio tech sector that should have a lot of upside down the road.


----------



## montreal

bios have been heating up, with the IBB finally breaking out although I want to see it over 300 on strength still. Did well with RLYP buyout. ADXS and CEMP have popped of late. Still waiting on ACHN to announce their 4 week study.


----------



## Ogopogo*

Royal Voyager said:


> investing in anything and everything green/organic/etc. is a very viable strategy




Sounds like the .com logic back in the late 90s. Fact is, each company is a separate entity and should be treated as such. Just throwing cash a "green" stocks is like playing the lottery. Good luck.


----------



## Pharrell Williams

BUY HIGH SELL LOW HIGH RISK STOCKS BLUE CHIPS bargain bonds WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAa


----------



## montreal

still trying to figure out where bios are headed before the election. Took some nice profits in ARRY, debating on taking them in GWPH or not. KITE doing well but going to hold on to that one. Still pissed I didn't get more for RLYP. Not sure why ACHN hasn't broken out yet. 

In the non bio, TASR should be a big payday at some point. Thinking about adding to my MGT position as cyber security should be good in the long run and MacAfee knows how to do it but have been getting burnt on Fireye. SODA has been good to me but pissed i didn't go with my gut and by Twitter at 14 and Gopro at 10. Thinking about UA but holding off since SKX is getting beat up, have a lot but might have to add at such cheap prices.


----------



## Bubba Thudd




----------



## Stand Witness

Just bought a couple thousand shares in N.CC (Namaste) http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=N:CC

Seems to be some crazy speculation here that it is being unvalued and will see some massive growth over the next week.

Might be worth a look for others.


----------



## Hansen

Matthews 2 the Leafs said:


> Just bought a couple thousand shares in N.CC (Namaste) http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=N:CC
> 
> Seems to be some crazy speculation here that it is being unvalued and will see some massive growth over the next week.
> 
> Might be worth a look for others.




Give me the thumbs up and I'll dump 50k into this right now dont **** with me


----------



## Stand Witness

Hansen 36 said:


> Give me the thumbs up and I'll dump 50k into this right now dont **** with me




It has actually hit .21 cents today


----------



## Dog

Invest in vaping lmao ****


----------



## Stand Witness

I already sold enough of my shares to get out what i invested in it but its still going up. At .25 today.


----------



## Poochie_D

What do you guys think of Canopy Growth corp? 

I don't trade but I'm seriously considering making an investment.


----------



## Stand Witness

Poochie_D said:


> What do you guys think of Canopy Growth corp?
> 
> I don't trade but I'm seriously considering making an investment.




Put some money in when the shares were $2.30 and sold enough to get my original investment back at around $3.40. Still have the remaining shares in there at north of $5.00.

Also had some very good luck with OGI as well. Doubled and sold half my shares again to get my original investment back and build up my portfolio.

Had a stock tip from a guy that so far has been phenomenal for my friends and me. Called SUN Marijuana. Bought it at 0.19 and its already up to 0.23. We will see where it goes but I am not sure how long I will hold it yet. Depends on how the market goes tomorrow.


----------



## Stand Witness

Hansen 36 said:


> Give me the thumbs up and I'll dump 50k into this right now dont **** with me




Gave you the thumbs up... Could have made 50k off it


----------



## Hansen

Matthews 2 the Leafs said:


> Gave you the thumbs up... Could have made 50k off it




Dont **** with me


----------



## Stand Witness

Watch out for Wildflower Marijuana (SUN) tomorrow. Bought at .19c a share, currently at .29c a share. Had a bullish close and it was hard to fill shares today. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a jump again tomorrow.


----------



## Thucydides

Matthews 2 the Leafs said:


> Watch out for Wildflower Marijuana (SUN) tomorrow. Bought at .19c a share, currently at .29c a share. Had a bullish close and it was hard to fill shares today. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a jump again tomorrow.




weed stocks are super risky. A lot of these are going to end up at zero at some point - look at weed stocks in the states and what happened to them. The trick is not to be too greedy and know when to get out.


----------



## Pharrell Williams

Invest in vaping


----------



## montreal

I think weed stocks are a good way to go if you can absorb the risk. Have done well with GWPH and CARA, also own INSY but that hasn't done anything. Next month should see several states in the US vote to make weed legal, would think 2 or 3 perhaps which should give the sector a boost. Made a few bucks in TRTC, got killed in RFMK as they still don't have their vaporizer to market should it might just be a scam. New management and now they are getting into the hemp market. Did well with MJNA and GRPH in the past but got lucky that I sold when I did.


----------



## Hansen

i invest in buying water from people 

you think about supply and demand and water is the most demanded resource (we need it to live :laughoutloud and it is the least renewable so realistically one day my children will inherit a great wealth from me before i die


----------



## Stand Witness

montreal said:


> I think weed stocks are a good way to go if you can absorb the risk. Have done well with GWPH and CARA, also own INSY but that hasn't done anything. Next month should see several states in the US vote to make weed legal, would think 2 or 3 perhaps which should give the sector a boost. Made a few bucks in TRTC, got killed in RFMK as they still don't have their vaporizer to market should it might just be a scam. New management and now they are getting into the hemp market. Did well with MJNA and GRPH in the past but got lucky that I sold when I did.




I think its a bubble that will pop eventually myself... but thats down the road when it becomes legal in Canada. It is all speculation (which admittedly is what the stock market is) and all these companies getting licenses are not going to be successful nor will licenses be as valuable as more companies get them.

Right now you can ride the wave with some small/medium sized companies as they work their way up to licenses and then flip for some ridiculous returns but I don't think this is sustainable for much longer.

I have been reducing my risk by going in at max 30% of my holding in one company but currently hold stocks in more than 10 companies averaging about 10% in each with some cash left to invest.

My friends and I are only 20 but we have seen some very good returns. Doubled my portfolio size since I started from profits. I feel like my risk/reward is at a fair ratio. My one friend who is investing with us has put ALL of his money in 2 companies twice now and has hit on all of them. I can't explain how many times I have suggested against that because it is such a stupid move but I think he knows that now.

Anyways, I am going to guess that the group of 5 have made north of 12k in the last week. Impressive to say the least. I just hope 1 or 2 of them understand that it isn't sustainable long term and some safer moves are going to have to be made to reduce risk.


----------



## Cody Webster

What are you thinking about investing in next?


----------



## Ozz

I'm up 70% or so on KTOV and 100%+ on KTOVW (stock warrants) for the year, and there should be lots of room to go on these still. I'd recommend taking a look. The warrants I believe are good through 2020, though I'll be selling them rather than converting. My money is already being made here.


----------



## Stand Witness

Cody Webster said:


> What are you thinking about investing in next?




Today I bought THC, CYX and PE. 

THC was tipped to me on Thursday by one of my friends when it was @ 1.02 but I told them I wasn't going to have enough time to really research it and passed on it then. Friday night they announced a license and it opened at 1.30, I bought at 1.27, it closed at 1.35.

CYX I saw had some good numbers in terms of volume and news released today. Bought @ .105 and it closed @ .12, hitting .13 before close too. Hoping to get a decent open tomorrow of it.

PE was also recommended to me a while back when it was closer to .70/.80 a share but I held off. Bought in at .65 today and it closed just up a bit. Likely going for something quick here as well.

Good day today. My biggest hope is CYX has a solid day tomorrow.


----------



## montreal

Matthews 2 the Leafs said:


> I think its a bubble that will pop eventually myself... but thats down the road when it becomes legal in Canada. It is all speculation (which admittedly is what the stock market is) and all these companies getting licenses are not going to be successful nor will licenses be as valuable as more companies get them.




I'm only talking about the US stock market, haven't followed any weed stocks in Canada but might start. The US weed stocks went on a massive tear, it was insane to watch how fast and how they went but that bubble popped hard and fast and ever since it's been a dead sector. Perhaps it will start to pick up depending on how things go next month.


----------



## montreal

Just dipped my toe in GRNH, was looking at a few US weed stocks and they seem to be on the move. Might get back in TRTC as I think it's the better one but GRNH is much cheaper, only bought a very small amount anyway.


----------



## Thucydides

Yeah I'm looking to get into a couple weed stocks at some point soon.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> I'm up 70% or so on KTOV and 100%+ on KTOVW (stock warrants) for the year, and there should be lots of room to go on these still. I'd recommend taking a look. The warrants I believe are good through 2020, though I'll be selling them rather than converting. My money is already being made here.




I picked up some KTOV yesterday, got it at 3.42 or so but only bought half of what I was going to since Bio's have been on a slow steady decline this month. If it drops under 3, I will just double the position, if not I at least have enough to make a few bucks if it goes up to 7 or so.


----------



## GREMLIN

montreal said:


> I picked up some KTOV yesterday, got it at 3.42 or so but only bought half of what I was going to since Bio's have been on a slow steady decline this month. If it drops under 3, I will just double the position, if not I at least have enough to make a few bucks if it goes up to 7 or so.




Thoughts on ACHN?


----------



## ruhroh*

I lost all my wealth with Nokia.
**** everything.


----------



## montreal

Galchenyuksnipes said:


> Thoughts on ACHN?




thinking about buying a more or a good bit more, it's insanely cheap right now. Just trying to figure out if this bio rally is for real and where it's headed cause if it breaks 300 on a triple top with strength, damn that could get real interesting as I'm way overloaded on bio. SGEN is on fire for me as well as GWPH.


----------



## Pharrell Williams

stocks are up.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

bonds are down


----------



## montreal

finally a good day for SKX, still way undervalued imo. Now just need the bios to get on their horses and run. Hoping for a triple top on the IBB. My BLUE having a good day but I don't own a lot of that one and it never holds it gains for long.


----------



## Ozz

I'm a bio bear this past month or so. Doing well. Would have been easier keeping all the LABU shares I had earlier this year but I'm too impatient.

Doing well day trading lately bull oil, bear bio (also scalping bull bio here and there, but not much), bear gold. Not touching natural gas, though I wish I did when I wanted to a month ago. I was stuck in bios too much and couldn't risk another screwup at the time, then it ran hard.

Also got some value stocks I'm sitting on, and got to enjoy Ford's earnings report today and get out most of my shares for now.


----------



## Pharrell Williams

stocks are down.


----------



## montreal

The IBB keeps breaking support so that's very troubling but got to think there's going to be some big M&A in the bio world. ACAD, BLUE, GWPH, ARIA, SGYP, ARRY, ACHN, INCY, got to think a few of these are bought out at some point. 

Thinking about getting some FLEX, maybe AMBR as well.


----------



## Ozz

montreal, what do you think will happen next week with gold? Test 1100 or rally? I'm not sure, but I'm holding DUST.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> montreal, what do you think will happen next week with gold? Test 1100 or rally? I'm not sure, but I'm holding DUST.




don't really follow it, own a tiny amount of ABX. I like silver better but have stayed clear of Commodities for a while.


----------



## Bee Sheriff

Stocks are ip


----------



## Satan

Olli Guacamole said:


> stocks are down.




Buy low


----------



## Bee Sheriff

Satan said:


> Buy low




Up high

Down low

Too slow all your money is gone


----------



## Fledgemyhedge

So I'm an 18 year old, have saved up a decent amount of cash who really wants to get into stocks. What's a good way to start? Are there any website/simulators that you guys would recommend? I'm also probably going to put a chunk of my savings toward PMs (specifically physical silver), does anyone have any background in that? I'm just so confused about where to start haha


----------



## Ricchi e Poveri

Buy ETF's in tranches. Buy physical silver in tranches. Month over Month. Do this and while you do it get in the know about the stock market and things. Don't put all your money in the game at once. That is my advice. And pay cash for your silver coins.


----------



## hitman9172

Fledgemyhedge said:


> So I'm an 18 year old, have saved up a decent amount of cash who really wants to get into stocks. What's a good way to start? Are there any website/simulators that you guys would recommend? I'm also probably going to put a chunk of my savings toward PMs (specifically physical silver), does anyone have any background in that? I'm just so confused about where to start haha




Post your questions here. 2 forums that have made a significant positive difference in the financial well-being of myself and several of my friends. Tons of knowledgeable posters:

www.bogleheads.org/forum
www.financialwisdomforum.org


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Fledgemyhedge said:


> So I'm an 18 year old, have saved up a decent amount of cash who really wants to get into stocks. What's a good way to start? Are there any website/simulators that you guys would recommend? I'm also probably going to put a chunk of my savings toward PMs (specifically physical silver), does anyone have any background in that? I'm just so confused about where to start haha




If you are interested in precious metals you should look into goldmoney.com


----------



## montreal

Fledgemyhedge said:


> So I'm an 18 year old, have saved up a decent amount of cash who really wants to get into stocks. What's a good way to start? Are there any website/simulators that you guys would recommend? I'm also probably going to put a chunk of my savings toward PMs (specifically physical silver), does anyone have any background in that? I'm just so confused about where to start haha




I happen to like silver a lot long term. I owned SLV in the past, will likely buy it back again when I free up cash from biotech. 

One book that helped me while getting my Finance degree, but that was a long time ago and the market has really changed as short selling and high frequency trading have really changed the landscape of investing. Be very careful would be by advice, paper trades is a good way to start till you learn and feel comfortable. 

How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times Or Bad
Book by William O'Neil

He runs the newspaper, Investors Business Daily.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

montreal said:


> I happen to like silver a lot long term. I owned SLV in the past, will likely buy it back again when I free up cash from biotech.
> 
> One book that helped me while getting my Finance degree, but that was a long time ago and the market has really changed as short selling and high frequency trading have really changed the landscape of investing. Be very careful would be by advice, paper trades is a good way to start till you learn and feel comfortable.
> 
> *How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times Or Bad
> Book by William O'Neil*
> 
> He runs the newspaper, Investors Business Daily.




Thanks for the recommendation even though you weren't replying to me . I will pick that up next time i order books off amazon.


----------



## Ozz

Ozz said:


> montreal, what do you think will happen next week with gold? Test 1100 or rally? I'm not sure, but I'm holding DUST.









I added some DUST at $50 on the gold rally yesterday & this morning. Sold 1/2 halfway to its current price (+$4/pps) and am sitting on the rest. Really wish I would have just let it all ride all day and almost doubled my profit, but I've been on the wrong side of that too much to risk it anymore. I had a few hundred shares and that was all I had available for active trading since I've got the rest tied up in longer-term trades. 

On that note, Montreal, any thoughts on these? I picked up some of each for swing trades; would appreciate if you could add some thoughts. Please and thank you 

SNCR
ALGN
MOMO
TRN
VALE
TTD


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> On that note, Montreal, any thoughts on these? I picked up some of each for swing trades; would appreciate if you could add some thoughts. Please and thank you
> 
> SNCR
> ALGN
> MOMO
> TRN
> VALE
> TTD




don't know any of them, but have been thinking about moving into tech. Right now the only two tech I'm looking at are Flex and Amber Road, have been sitting pat waiting on the Fed and now I don't think I'll do too much until I see how the market reacts to the rise of interest rates. 

I've mainly just been so heavy with buying and researching Bio's, think down the road there's massive upside here but could be in for more short term waves until people figure out no matter who tweets drug prices are too high, these compaines are going to make a ton of money in the future even if drugs get a good bit cheaper.


----------



## Dog

montreal said:


> don't know any of them, but have been thinking about moving into tech. Right now the only two tech I'm looking at are Flex and Amber Road, have been sitting pat waiting on the Fed and now I don't think I'll do too much until I see how the market reacts to the rise of interest rates.
> 
> I've mainly just been so heavy with buying and researching Bio's, think down the road there's massive upside here but could be in for more short term waves until people figure out no matter who tweets drug prices are too high, these compaines are going to make a ton of money in the future even if drugs get a good bit cheaper.




VALE is mining iirc


----------



## Ozz

There seems to be so much garbage out there in respect to bios, it's hard for me to bother with many. Any time I take a starting position on something that has solid fundamentals, it gets slaughtered anyway. Right now they're definite long-term plays for me.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> There seems to be so much garbage out there in respect to bios, it's hard for me to bother with many. Any time I take a starting position on something that has solid fundamentals, it gets slaughtered anyway. Right now they're definite long-term plays for me.




I'm mostly a long term trader, just think that there are so many cheap bio's that are going to make a killing in time. I use options and add to my position on dips, but I also do some bargain basement shopping as I will add when I see one get smoked depending on the reason or sometimes I'll just throw a few bucks at it and see what happens. Did well with RLYP after it got smoked despite getting FDA approval, same for ARIA. 

But it's the toughest sector to invest in for sure, I wouldn't recommend it to anyone that can't take loses especially in the near future where there's likely to be a lot of back and forth on drug prices. once the dust settles though, there's likely going to be a lot of money to be made. For me it's impossible to know which ones will be left standing, so I own a basket of over 50 of them in different accounts.

ABUS
ACAD
ACHN
ADAP
ADXS
AGEN
ARIA
ARRY
AQXP
BCRX
BLUE
BMY
CALA
CARA
CEMP
CPRX
CTRV
CYTR
ESPR
GWPH
HALO
ITCI
ITEK
KITE
KPTI
KTOV
LPCN
MDGN
MNKD
NVAX
NWBO
NYMX
PCRX
PTLA
PTCT
OCUL
OMER
OPK
RCPI
RGLS
SAGE
SGMO
SGEN
SGYP
SPHS
SYN
TENX
TGTX
THLD
TNXP
TRVN
TTNP
TTPH
VBLT
XOMA
XON
ZIOP


----------



## Ozz

I've been in and out of a lot of those, I have TradeStation and run its software to catch breakout activity. The trouble there is the get so many minutes-long pumps that it makes it almost pointless to bother with that. Of course the easy shorts never have any shares available, either. 

I do have a lot of KTOV + warrants, but I think we discussed that before. Your portfolios must be insane with the way these things skyrocket and plummet every couple weeks or so!


----------



## Fledgemyhedge

Thanks to everyone who responded, I've decided to first invest in knowledge.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bitcoin is on a massive run.... over 900$.


----------



## Pharrell Williams

stocks are up.


----------



## Baby Punisher

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Bitcoin is on a massive run.... over 900$.




I read an article earlier in the day that a group from China is inflating the value. 

http://nypost.com/2016/12/22/chinese-drive-bitcoin-value-hits-record-high/


----------



## montreal

Finally my ARIA gets bought out, did well with that one but kicking myself for taking some profits at 7 and 14 bucks, would have killed it as my cost basis at one point was under 6 with 2K shares.


----------



## Thucydides

I just finished quietly buying up shares in "global gardens group" . I found it on the CSE over a year ago, and last week it was delisted and moved to the TSXV. I'm expecting "plant based diets" to become quite popular. With Beyond Meat and the impossible burger gaining momentum , I'm thinking global gardens group will be the dairy equilivent. They make milk from vegetables . It's in all major grocery stores in Canada now and have made roads into Asia , China, where 1 billion people are lactose intolerant . They will be in the US in March. 

If almond and coconut milk is worth 10 billion. What is milk from vegetables going to be worth? 

They have also developed ice cream, pudding, creamers, frozen deserts , cheese and other products though they haven't hit the market yet 

Product is called veggemo 






I bought 500,000 shares between 7-15 cents. (1% of the company) . Now I wait . Hahah


----------



## Ozz

montreal said:


> Finally my ARIA gets bought out, did well with that one but kicking myself for taking some profits at 7 and 14 bucks, would have killed it as my cost basis at one point was under 6 with 2K shares.




Congrats! I had some a while ago but got out on a spike before it dropped again. Hopefully the other crap I'm holding long-term enjoys similar results eventually. 

On a related note, I had a lot of LABU (3x bio bull) and sold about 1/3 at a loss to free up buying power in preparation to scalp it back in the coming days. Wouldn't you know it just *** took off from there and pretty much never dipped back for me? Unreal. I did buy it all back at a higher price, and still enjoyed about 12% on that as of today. I think my original lot is at 18-19%. Can't get too mad, I suppose. I'm holding but starting a LABD (3x bear) position as of today as well.


----------



## montreal

Ozz said:


> Congrats! I had some a while ago but got out on a spike before it dropped again. Hopefully the other crap I'm holding long-term enjoys similar results eventually.
> 
> On a related note, I had a lot of LABU (3x bio bull) and sold about 1/3 at a loss to free up buying power in preparation to scalp it back in the coming days. Wouldn't you know it just *** took off from there and pretty much never dipped back for me? Unreal. I did buy it all back at a higher price, and still enjoyed about 12% on that as of today. I think my original lot is at 18-19%. Can't get too mad, I suppose. I'm holding but starting a LABD (3x bear) position as of today as well.




it's due for a pull back after the big run up in the ibb, but if it holds I could see it break 290. Last time it looked like it was going to break 300 on a triple top, that could have seen a major breakout.


----------



## hitman9172

Question for the more active traders here:

how many hours a week do you estimate you spend researching/trading stocks?


----------



## Dog

stingo said:


> I just finished quietly buying up shares in "global gardens group" . I found it on the CSE over a year ago, and last week it was delisted and moved to the TSXV. I'm expecting "plant based diets" to become quite popular. With Beyond Meat and the impossible burger gaining momentum , I'm thinking global gardens group will be the dairy equilivent. They make milk from vegetables . It's in all major grocery stores in Canada now and have made roads into Asia , China, where 1 billion people are lactose intolerant . They will be in the US in March.
> 
> If almond and coconut milk is worth 10 billion. What is milk from vegetables going to be worth?
> 
> They have also developed ice cream, pudding, creamers, frozen deserts , cheese and other products though they haven't hit the market yet
> 
> Product is called veggemo
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I bought 500,000 shares between 7-15 cents. (1% of the company) . Now I wait . Hahah





Why should people drink this instead of almond/coconut milk?


----------



## Dog

montreal said:


> WTF? because someone pointed out what I already knew? You think I don't know how to look up a stock?




Well you did say that you don't know any of them and that you were going to look into tech. I pointed out that vale is mining and not tech. So yeah, that does make you a ****ing ******

No need to be so stuck up next time


----------



## Dog

montreal said:


> now I'm stuck up? Are you kidding me, I do this for a living, just because I said I was looking into tech, doesn't mean I was talking about all of them. It's really easy to take a ticker symbol and find out what sector it's in, takes about a second. So it's my fault that you thought I didn't know what would take a second to find out, and that makes me stuck up and whatever ****ing ****** is. You don't think that's a tad over the top? I know people like to act tough over the internet but all I did was point out that I knew something already that was very easy to find out. If I said it was raining outside and you said I already knew that, would that make you a ****ing ****** or stuck up? Is there a joke I'm missing as I don't post much on the lounge. This just seems really crazy to call me out over nothing when all I have been doing to try to give information to people while I'm working.




You make a silly grammar error in the first sentence and think I'm going to read the entire post? Good chance, how am I supposed to take you serious?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

montreal said:


> thanks.




I also appreciate what you do. Always willing to learn stock market stuff from people with more experience and knowledge.


----------



## Dog

montreal said:


> what grammar error? But if that bothers you so much, then don't read it, doesn't really matter.




You just made the same error. Looks like you make it in all of your posts.


----------



## Ricchi e Poveri

I read your posts on a regular basis. Very interesting. Don't get worked up about these kids.


----------



## Dog

Supersic said:


> I read your posts on a regular basis. Very interesting. Don't get worked up about these kids.




Thanks for the backup buddy. I appreciate you as well


----------



## Dog

Guerzy said:


> You are one big gimmick here and it's extremely tiring. I am sick of it. I barely post here anymore because the content is cringe worthy. Quality discussion was being posted here until your sorry little ass showed up.
> 
> Montreal, carry on bud. Your points here are well articulated.



I agree with this. Honestly, he's a ****ing idiot and shouldn't be allowed to post on this website.


----------



## Dog

Finnish your Czech said:


> Lmao so funny ahhahahahhha
> 
> You're the reason why the lounge is mocked throughout the boards




Lmao this post is hilarious.

I can't believe you're trolling me and saying all of this stuff just because I won't accept any of your ****** fantasy trade offers.


----------



## John Price

You need to diversify your bonds.


----------



## Thucydides

Montreal - you rule. Always willing to answer my questions. Keep posting buddy.


----------



## John Price

Keep educating the masses on fiduciary affairs.


----------



## Ozz

Sell high, cover low.



TRN, TTD, and VALE from my earlier calls have worked out so far. I took my gains and left, not sure what the immediate future holds. Probably good for the long-term on each...

Currently in LABD but long-term moving back to LABU. Hopefully there's a pullback in XBI today so I can enjoy the fruits of my scalp and be on my merry way.

Also playing both sides NUGT/DUST, not sure what's up with that one. It's always questionable, I am not sure why I bother much.


----------



## Fledgemyhedge

Anyone in on Canadian marijuana stocks?


----------



## Thucydides

Fledgemyhedge said:


> Anyone in on Canadian marijuana stocks?




I was in on them about 2 months before Trudeau got in , and out about 6 months later. Cleaned up on OGI.v (was in @ 22 cents) & canopy growth (in @. 70 out @ 3 bucks - ouch!!) which is now weed.to 

Have a small position in mgw.v - 1500 shares.


----------



## HansonBro

No formal experience. But many moons ago I did some work for ATI technologies and my contact told me to buy in at around 2$. This is the company (now owned by AMD) that makes graphics cards for CPUS. Years later I looked up the stock and it was up around 25$ with Nvidia being it's only other real competitor. FML

I also remember thinking when Dollarama opened to the public at around 16$, it would be a good investment. Today sits at 110$....Fml again


----------



## MarAlain MongYeo

You guys uhhhhhh like what you see here?


----------



## LetsGoIslanders

As someone who worked in FX, and would never recommend it for an individual investor without a strong understanding of FX, and for someone who doesn't study foreign markets. I'm betting on the CADUSD, I have options to .65 .60, .55 CAD on the USD. I would go to .50, but the Alberta, Prairie, and Quebec markets are already depressed because of weak fuel prices and increasing unemployment. There are going to be major issues in the BC and Toronto markets in real estate, way beyond the overheated real estate market which happened in Etats-Unis. The sheer amount of money laundering coming into Canada for properties in BC and Toronto is staggering. When the Canadian RE market crashes it's going to be worse that the Great Recession in the US -- it's going to bring down at least one major Canadian bank.


----------



## BahlDeep

LetsGoIslanders said:


> As someone who worked in FX, and would never recommend it for an individual investor without a strong understanding of FX, and for someone who doesn't study foreign markets. I'm betting on the CADUSD, I have options to .65 .60, .55 CAD on the USD. I would go to .50, but the Alberta, Prairie, and Quebec markets are already depressed because of weak fuel prices and increasing unemployment. There are going to be major issues in the BC and Toronto markets in real estate, way beyond the overheated real estate market which happened in Etats-Unis. The sheer amount of money laundering coming into Canada for properties in BC and Toronto is staggering. When the Canadian RE market crashes it's going to be worse that the Great Recession in the US -- it's going to bring down at least one major Canadian bank.




The Government won't let a major bank go down.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

LetsGoIslanders said:


> As someone who worked in FX, and would never recommend it for an individual investor without a strong understanding of FX, and for someone who doesn't study foreign markets. I'm betting on the CADUSD, I have options to .65 .60, .55 CAD on the USD. I would go to .50, but the Alberta, Prairie, and Quebec markets are already depressed because of weak fuel prices and increasing unemployment. There are going to be major issues in the BC and Toronto markets in real estate, way beyond the overheated real estate market which happened in Etats-Unis. The sheer amount of money laundering coming into Canada for properties in BC and Toronto is staggering. When the Canadian RE market crashes it's going to be worse that the Great Recession in the US -- it's going to bring down at least one major Canadian bank.




No. This won't happen. Canada's economic strength is in its natural resources not just in two overheated real estate markets. To have a 55-60 cents CAD would mean that the USD would be insanely strong and thus cause problems all over the world not just in Canada.

Also, unemployment is decreasing quickly in Alberta. This isn't 2015.


----------



## montreal

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Bitcoin is on a massive run.... over 900$.




what an insane run it's been on, have stayed away from it but perhaps will look at one of the others like ripple in time.



Fledgemyhedge said:


> Anyone in on Canadian marijuana stocks?




Not Canadian, but really like MYDX, very interesting story. They have a portable analyzer that will detect the chemicals in cannabis and then put it in a database so it can tell you what impact that strain of cannabis will have. Say if you were using it because you feel nauseated, it will tell if you that strain will help with that or not.


Breaking into the Canadian market,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mydx-launches-canadian-national-marketing-191000550.html


----------



## montreal

montreal said:


> I'm mostly a long term trader, just think that there are so many cheap bio's that are going to make a killing in time. I use options and add to my position on dips, but I also do some bargain basement shopping as I will add when I see one get smoked depending on the reason or sometimes I'll just throw a few bucks at it and see what happens. Did well with RLYP after it got smoked despite getting FDA approval, same for ARIA.
> 
> But it's the toughest sector to invest in for sure, I wouldn't recommend it to anyone that can't take loses especially in the near future where there's likely to be a lot of back and forth on drug prices. once the dust settles though, there's likely going to be a lot of money to be made. For me it's impossible to know which ones will be left standing, so I own a basket of over 50 of them in different accounts.
> 
> ABUS
> ACAD
> ACHN
> ADAP
> ADXS
> AGEN
> ARIA
> ARRY
> AQXP
> BCRX
> BLUE
> CALA
> CARA
> CEMP
> CPRX
> CTRV
> CYTR
> ESPR
> GWPH
> HALO
> ITCI
> ITEK
> KITE
> KPTI
> KTOV
> LPCN
> MDGN
> MNKD
> NVAX
> NWBO
> NYMX
> PCRX
> PTLA
> PTCT
> OCUL
> OMER
> OPK
> RCPI
> RGLS
> SAGE
> SGMO
> SGEN
> SGYP
> SPHS
> SYN
> TENX
> TGTX
> THLD
> TNXP
> TRVN
> TTNP
> TTPH
> VBLT
> XOMA
> XON
> ZIOP




IBB on fire, bio's breaking out left and right!


----------



## Hammettf2b

I recently heard that Forex trading might be a good option for beginners? Can anyone explain what that is exactly?


----------



## Finnish your Czech

Hammettf2b said:


> I recently heard that Forex trading might be a good option for beginners? Can anyone explain what that is exactly?




Foreign _exchange_


----------



## LosVikingsDeChicago

Hammettf2b said:


> I recently heard that Forex trading might be a good option for beginners? Can anyone explain what that is exactly?




First things first, what is your objective?


----------



## Hammettf2b

LosVikingsDeChicago said:


> First things first, what is your objective?




Basically just to get my foot in the door. Not looking for big investments/returns, just want something to do/learn during slow periods at work.


----------



## LosVikingsDeChicago

Hammettf2b said:


> Basically just to get my foot in the door. Not looking for big investments/returns, just want something to do/learn during slow periods at work.





Here's the plan

Start with http://babypips.com
Graduate to http://forexfactory.com and find a strategy
Take $10 and open an account with Oanda

If you blow your account add $10 more and repeat until you can control your emotions and establish patience. This will take years so you're in no rush. When you're finally ready, then you can move to a bigger account. 

PM me if you have any other questions.


----------



## Ducksforcup

Been such a strange market (I suppose when is it not). So many people predicting a correction and yet the market just keeps moving forward.


----------



## Hammettf2b

LosVikingsDeChicago said:


> Here's the plan
> 
> Start with http://babypips.com
> Graduate to http://forexfactory.com and find a strategy
> Take $10 and open an account with Oanda
> 
> If you blow your account add $10 more and repeat until you can control your emotions and establish patience. This will take years so you're in no rush. When you're finally ready, then you can move to a bigger account.
> 
> PM me if you have any other questions.




Awesome, thanks!!!


----------



## Ozz

Dat gold doe. Broke the 6+ year downtrend at 1300 this week after failing all spring & summer so far. 

I've been building a huge position in miner ETFs for almost 3 months, NOW we're finally getting somewhere. 


Since I've been sitting on these positions and all my long trades are eating it lately, I've had lots of time to do something wise. I'm acquainted with someone who tried having me code some strategies for him, but the ideas he had were weak. Back-testing showed horrible results. He did however give me some ideas, and so I applied them to my own usual chart strategies. Over the course of a couple months I put together an automated strategy for various ETFs to day trade. My goal was to pull 1% per day or better. I'm getting between 0.5-5% daily for months straight so far. I believe I've tweaked those low days to be minimal/erased. Average is around 3% lately.

My first plan was to use Renko charting with PSAR entry. Exit is based on ATR trailing. Each with my own strict settings. Renko charts blow traditional candles out of the water so badly it's not even funny. Back-testing shows truly unbelievable results, and my SIM ACCOUNT I've been monitoring and testing with reflects that. Even with slippage, I'm killing it. 

FWIW I opted to trade multiple ETFs covering many parts of the market in case one or two become screwy for whatever reason. Most are set to take positions both long/short, even on bear AND bull ETFs. Reason being I've found that my criteria will for instance trigger a bear ETF short but not a bull ETF long (and vice versa). Often they both trigger and I get a double-whammy, but not always. 

After the first 2 months of SIM success, I was able to come up with more ideas. I added a stipulation to my entries to also utilize price momentum vs. the previous close, and it nearly doubled the profit success. I couldn't believe it. 


I planned to go live with at least some of these tickers, but I'm so heavy into gold miners right now and with this week's catalysts acting like a unicorn I'm keeping my positions. 


Absolutely cannot wait to get this automation underway live; if it's even 1/4 as good as it shows in sim, I'll be all set. Naturally I should expect far more than that. It does everything I try to do while manual charting, with zero emotion, better/faster/more precise analysis, and can do as many tickers at the same as I want.


----------



## LosVikingsDeChicago

Ozz said:


> Dat gold doe. Broke the 6+ year downtrend at 1300 this week after failing all spring & summer so far.
> 
> I've been building a huge position in miner ETFs for almost 3 months, NOW we're finally getting somewhere.
> 
> 
> Since I've been sitting on these positions and all my long trades are eating it lately, I've had lots of time to do something wise. I'm acquainted with someone who tried having me code some strategies for him, but the ideas he had were weak. Back-testing showed horrible results. He did however give me some ideas, and so I applied them to my own usual chart strategies. Over the course of a couple months I put together an automated strategy for various ETFs to day trade. My goal was to pull 1% per day or better. I'm getting between 0.5-5% daily for months straight so far. I believe I've tweaked those low days to be minimal/erased. Average is around 3% lately.
> 
> My first plan was to use Renko charting with PSAR entry. Exit is based on ATR trailing. Each with my own strict settings. Renko charts blow traditional candles out of the water so badly it's not even funny. Back-testing shows truly unbelievable results, and my SIM ACCOUNT I've been monitoring and testing with reflects that. Even with slippage, I'm killing it.
> 
> FWIW I opted to trade multiple ETFs covering many parts of the market in case one or two become screwy for whatever reason. Most are set to take positions both long/short, even on bear AND bull ETFs. Reason being I've found that my criteria will for instance trigger a bear ETF short but not a bull ETF long (and vice versa). Often they both trigger and I get a double-whammy, but not always.
> 
> After the first 2 months of SIM success, I was able to come up with more ideas. I added a stipulation to my entries to also utilize price momentum vs. the previous close, and it nearly doubled the profit success. I couldn't believe it.
> 
> 
> I planned to go live with at least some of these tickers, but I'm so heavy into gold miners right now and with this week's catalysts acting like a unicorn I'm keeping my positions.
> 
> 
> Absolutely cannot wait to get this automation underway live; if it's even 1/4 as good as it shows in sim, I'll be all set. Naturally I should expect far more than that. It does everything I try to do while manual charting, with zero emotion, better/faster/more precise analysis, and can do as many tickers at the same as I want.




Gotta make that loot! If gold can take out 1370+, lookout!


----------



## Porn*

The market has been rough the last few months. Any reason to expect change? 

As for flyers... I've got bewhere, patriot one, and hip.


----------



## John Price

50 Cent discovers his Bitcoin millions


----------



## illpucks

hockeyfish said:


> Also bought into GoPro.



Regret it?

Bump. Good time to buy now or not?


----------



## John Price

markets in disarray because of *tarrifs *


----------



## Bones Malone

DC Solar looking promising


----------



## Conrad McBenis

Invest in plant based meat


----------



## John Price

robinhood


----------



## John Price

The Crypto Gal said:


> Invest in plant based meat



yup big TREND now

BEYOND

*IMPOSSIBLE*


----------



## LarryFisherman

Roman Fell said:


> robinhood




lol, how much money do you have in robinhood?


----------



## LarryFisherman

i took a 7% overall loss in my robinhood account today, mostly on AMD.


----------



## Hammettf2b

StanGetz said:


> i took a 7% overall loss in my robinhood account today, mostly on AMD.



AMD fell bad. Did something get announced or what


----------



## LarryFisherman

Hammettf2b said:


> AMD fell bad. Did something get announced or what




not sure. they beat expectations this past quarter by like 2% or something. Maybe people thought it was gonna be more. 

i bought in april 2018 when it was less than 10 bucks, so i'll just keep it around. I only have 50 shares.


----------



## Edmonton East

Didn't know this existed. Come in. 1st post I see is about AMD. 

Is this just an extension of reddit WallStreetBets


----------



## LarryFisherman

Hall4Hart said:


> Didn't know this existed. Come in. 1st post I see is about AMD.
> 
> Is this just an extension of reddit WallStreetBets




lmao, did you see the clown that lost 50k in one day on TSLA last week? + all options expired last friday?

oof


----------



## Hammettf2b

TELL ME WHAT TO BUY IN MY ROBINHOOD ACCOUNT!!!


----------



## HSF

any other stocks to look into?

I was checking out and waiting to see if cannabis 2.0 moves the market


----------



## Scorey Perry

StanGetz said:


> lmao, did you see the clown that lost 50k in one day on TSLA last week? + all options expired last friday?
> 
> oof



How do you lose 50k on Telsa?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

What happened to all the people who bought Bitcoin & Alt Coins from like 3 years ago?


----------



## LarryFisherman

Old Drunk Guy said:


> How do you lose 50k on Telsa?




options are dangerous, homie.


----------



## LarryFisherman

INSG is taking me home over the last few months.

I have about 500 shares @ $4.94 average. Hitting nearly eight and quarter today.



also, robinhood, lol


----------



## JMCx4

StanGetz said:


> INSG is taking me home over the last few months.
> 
> I have about 500 shares @ $4.94 average. Hitting nearly eight and quarter today.
> 
> View attachment 303695



You'd get a better return on the 50/50 at the arena.


----------



## Scorey Perry

StanGetz said:


> options are dangerous, homie.



I've done great in it. Can't see TSLA being bad


----------



## LarryFisherman

Old Drunk Guy said:


> I've done great in it. Can't see TSLA being bad




yeah, but if you buy dozens to hundreds of puts @ $320 and it shoots up to $420+, you're f***ed. purely f***ed. Guy thought they were going to lose and didn't hedge with calls.

do you know /r/wallstreetbets? that's where all those YOLO crazyboi's live.


----------



## Scorey Perry

StanGetz said:


> yeah, but if you buy dozens to hundreds of puts @ $320 and it shoots up to $420+, you're ****ed. purely ****ed. Guy thought they were going to lose and didn't hedge with calls.
> 
> do you know /r/wallstreetbets? that's where all those YOLO crazyboi's live.



I buy long term. Ron Baron had a high rating on Tesla back in '16. I bought in for $198. Baron is a good stock market guy. A quote from him I liked. CEOs who are sucessful everywhere they o generally continue to be sucessful.


----------



## ItsFineImFine

I admire the stock picker that actually takes time to pick and choose individual stocks. I'm a lazy boy that just goes for all-in-one EFTs.


----------



## LarryFisherman

Old Drunk Guy said:


> I buy long term. Ron Baron had a high rating on Tesla back in '16. I bought in for $198. Baron is a good stock market guy. A quote from him I liked. CEOs who are sucessful everywhere they o generally continue to be sucessful.




Tesla has turned up pretty nicely.

It was risky though, for sure. It was always going to be a volatile company for a number of reasons; year-over-year profit loss, new market tech, and Elon. I didn't think it was going to accelerate like it did at the end of last year, but the plants in China+model3 production leveling out really set it off. I own a small amount of Tesla, but nothing worthy of mentioning. I really only play ball individually with sub $150 stocks, since the whole point for me is to grab solid gains. I let the ETFs and retirement accounts do all the really long-term holds. I'm looking for 20-30% strikes over the course of 4-8 months when picking stocks individually. 

That said, I missed the boat on Tesla. The more expensive options I chose over it were Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and AMD. Those played out nicely, but nowhere near as nice as picking up Tesla sub-200.


----------



## Neutrinos

StanGetz said:


> Tesla has turned up pretty nicely.
> 
> It was risky though, for sure. It was always going to be a volatile company for a number of reasons; year-over-year profit loss, new market tech, and Elon. I didn't think it was going to accelerate like it did at the end of last year, but the plants in China+model3 production leveling out really set it off. I own a small amount of Tesla, but nothing worthy of mentioning. I really only play ball individually with sub $150 stocks, since the whole point for me is to grab solid gains. I let the ETFs and retirement accounts do all the really long-term holds. I'm looking for 20-30% strikes over the course of 4-8 months when picking stocks individually.
> 
> That said, I missed the boat on Tesla. The more expensive options I chose over it were Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and AMD. Those played out nicely, but nowhere near as nice as picking up Tesla sub-200.




A friend of mine bought $5000 worth of shares in Tesla 6 months ago at $1.85


----------



## LarryFisherman

Neutrinos said:


> A friend of mine bought $5000 worth of shares in Tesla 6 months ago at $1.85




I don't follow. The lowest the stock has been in the last 5 years is $~150. He bought 5k worth of options?


----------



## Neutrinos

StanGetz said:


> I don't follow. The lowest the stock has been in the last 5 years is $~150. He bought 5k worth of options?




She bought $5000 worth of shares 6 months ago when they were $1.85


----------



## LarryFisherman

Neutrinos said:


> She bought $5000 worth of shares 6 months ago when they were $1.85




Again, the stock hasn't dipped below $150 in the last 5 years. Not sure what you're talking about here.


----------



## Neutrinos

StanGetz said:


> Again, the stock hasn't dipped below $150 in the last 5 years. Not sure what you're talking about here.




It must've been $185

She just said "185" and I assumed she meant $1.85


----------



## Club

Tesla out here ballin


----------



## LarryFisherman

Neutrinos said:


> It must've been $185
> 
> She just said "185" and I assumed she meant $1.85




that would make a lot more sense. it had a pretty sizable dip a little while back by current standards and if I wasn't such a f'in idiot, I would have scooped some up too.


----------



## Scorey Perry

StanGetz said:


> Tesla has turned up pretty nicely.
> 
> It was risky though, for sure. It was always going to be a volatile company for a number of reasons; year-over-year profit loss, new market tech, and Elon. I didn't think it was going to accelerate like it did at the end of last year, but the plants in China+model3 production leveling out really set it off. I own a small amount of Tesla, but nothing worthy of mentioning. I really only play ball individually with sub $150 stocks, since the whole point for me is to grab solid gains. I let the ETFs and retirement accounts do all the really long-term holds. I'm looking for 20-30% strikes over the course of 4-8 months when picking stocks individually.
> 
> That said, I missed the boat on Tesla. The more expensive options I chose over it were Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and AMD. Those played out nicely, but nowhere near as nice as picking up Tesla sub-200.



I was sold on them because their software was so advanced compared to other makers of self driving cars. I figured they are the future. But production costs ran more than expected early last year. Fairly confidental Musk would prove out though as SpaceX and PayPal both had trying moments at same stage.

He must see something in Suncity though that I do not see.


----------



## Thucydides

Vanguard ETF - Vun.to is up nicely since I started buying it back in 2014/2015 - bought in @ 30- it’s up to 59.07 today. Steady ETF like that is great to buy into for a long term hold.

I think this stock will always continue to go up unless financial crash , but then it will go back up again. One of the can’t lose ETF because it tracks the entire US market.

small dividend (0.22) but nice capital gains.


----------



## LarryFisherman

halincandenza said:


> Vanguard ETF - Vun.to is up nicely since I started buying it back in 2014/2015 - bought in @ 30- it’s up to 59.07 today. Steady ETF like that is great to buy into for a long term hold.
> 
> I think this stock will always continue to go up unless financial crash , but then it will go back up again. One of the can’t lose ETF because it tracks the entire US market.
> 
> small dividend (0.22) but nice capital gains.




never a bad play for steady long-term management.


----------



## Morbo

ItsFineImFine said:


> I admire the stock picker that actually takes time to pick and choose individual stocks. I'm a lazy boy that just goes for all-in-one EFTs.




me too. but you know what, my holdings are up 10% since last April. I'll take it.


----------



## ItsFineImFine

Volcanologist said:


> me too. but you know what, my holdings are up 10% since last April. I'll take it.




Everyone's holdings are up in the bull run of the 2010s. It's hard to screw up whether you're an active or passive investor unless you're an active investor who overdid buying/selling and got burnt on fees.


----------



## Morbo

ItsFineImFine said:


> Everyone's holdings are up in the bull run of the 2010s. It's hard to screw up whether you're an active or passive investor unless you're an active investor who overdid buying/selling and got burnt on fees.




yeah, I wasn't pretending it was because of anything I did


----------



## member 157595

halincandenza said:


> Vanguard ETF - Vun.to is up nicely since I started buying it back in 2014/2015 - bought in @ 30- it’s up to 59.07 today. Steady ETF like that is great to buy into for a long term hold.
> 
> I think this stock will always continue to go up unless financial crash , but then it will go back up again. One of the can’t lose ETF because it tracks the entire US market.
> 
> small dividend (0.22) but nice capital gains.




Yeah that's what I do. I don't pick individual stocks because I don't have the time or acumen but my family still does very well because we invest our holdings in low-fee funds that each own a little a piece of the market.


----------



## showtime8

Just noticed this thread. Like that there is a lot of good discussion in here. 

Some of my strategies about where I invest have a lot to do with successful mutual funds. Take a look at what a lot of the top holdings are in mutual funds that have a track record of double digit success since inception & follow those trends. 

All mutual fund companies have analysts & researchers that comb through stocks. They look at balance sheets & also look for trends. Piggy back on their resources.


----------



## Bumpus




----------



## lukester

Dow futures look to be hit hard again .


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Black Monday?


----------



## spintheblackcircle




----------



## Stylizer1

spintheblackcircle said:


>




And they blame this on Coronavirus?


----------



## spintheblackcircle




----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Was at 65$ in January.


----------



## lukester

Dow down 7% in 6 minutes. Stock market halted. In thinking about all the retirees now who will need liquid cash due to inflation. Already toulet paper is 28$ at my local walmart from people buying it up. Pretty sure food prices will go up.


----------



## LarryFisherman

I was down about 17% across all my accounts this morning. Too scared to look again.

I wish the circuit breaker was 25-days long smh


----------



## John Price

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Was at 65$ in January.




Jpg of Martin at the stock market and his dad saying you got greedy Martin


----------



## BahlDeep

I rather play russian roulette then invest in energy.


----------



## Thucydides

Vanguard index fund down to 51 dollars from the high 2-3 weeks ago of 62 bucks. Haven’t started buying in yet. I think I will dip a toe in the 40’s and then buy down to the bottom, whenever that is, and buy back up to where i bought in. 

Microsoft is also a good stock to watch . 2008 crash it fell to 20 bucks a share - sits @ 150 a share today. Think I’ll take out multiple loans if I see it that low again .

what’s everyone else watching?


----------



## Breakers

I wish I had more cash on hand to buy.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Vanguard index fund down to 51 dollars from the high 2-3 weeks ago of 62 bucks. Haven’t started buying in yet. I think I will dip a toe in the 40’s and then buy down to the bottom, whenever that is, and buy back up to where i bought in.
> 
> Microsoft is also a good stock to watch . 2008 crash it fell to 20 bucks a share - sits @ 150 a share today. Think I’ll take out multiple loans if I see it that low again .
> 
> what’s everyone else watching?




I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.


----------



## PanthersPens62

I work for a cruise line & our stock has dropped almost 40 points in 3 weeks.


----------



## lukester

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.



Apple already said they have shipped out a lot less phones. You need people to work to sell consumer goods. With more and more countries going under quarantine it will lead to less supply.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

lukester said:


> Apple already said they have shipped out a lot less phones. You need people to work to sell consumer goods. With more and more countries going under quarantine it will lead to less supply.




No disagreement from me. However, that's why you would want to start looking at these companies. At some point in the future the virus will have passed & the economy will recover and these companies will return to normal and thus their profits / stock price will return to normal.


----------



## madinsomniac

Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...

hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars

the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

I'm a seasoned prepper and have the skills and supplies to survive indefinitely in the aftermath of a global economic collapse. Personally, I'm glad to see the stock market crashing and I hope everyone loses their money and panics.  I have a robust arsenal of weapons and will defend my family and my property at all costs.


----------



## lukester

madinsomniac said:


> Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...
> 
> hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars
> 
> the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...




I heard this argument before, but one thing we seem to forget is that a high percentage of seniors need to be hospitalized with the virus. Probably need oxygen and other tech and meds. During the Spanish Flu they didnt have that. If this virus spread in the same conditions as in 1918, the numbers would be interesting.

I like your opinion on oil! Maybe I can do some camping with a camoer van this summer if theh stay low. Although in my area taxes are around 45% on gas which is insane


----------



## lukester

Fixed to Ruin said:


> No disagreement from me. However, that's why you would want to start looking at these companies. At some point in the future the virus will have passed & the economy will recover and these companies will return to normal and thus their profits / stock price will return to normal.




You are right, its good to atleast look at the companies.


----------



## BahlDeep

I fundamentally believe that this whole thing is way overblown.

1) It didn't help that the emergency fed cut was way too soon and it was a completely stupid reaction - market expects at least a 100bps cut @ next meeting: CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC - CME Group

2) Media outlets are running to the bank with this - adding to the panic

3) Stay away from banks


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.




good ideas here. What’s your take on Microsoft ?


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> I fundamentally believe that this whole thing is way overblown.
> 
> 1) It didn't help that the emergency fed cut was way too soon and it was a completely stupid reaction - market expects at least a 100bps cut @ next meeting: CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC - CME Group
> 
> 2) Media outlets are running to the bank with this - adding to the panic
> 
> 3) Stay away from banks




Banks are being hit hard. When I checked TD bank a couple weeks ago it was 73 bucks , today it’s 57. You figure banks will be hit hard here? TD and Royal are on my watchlist if they fall to the right price - not sure what that is yet .


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> good ideas here. What’s your take on Microsoft ?




Don't really follow tech companies but I would assume that they would be included in the list of the very best companies to watch.


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Banks are being hit hard. When I checked TD bank a couple weeks ago it was 73 bucks , today it’s 57. You figure banks will be hit hard here? TD and Royal are on my watchlist if they fall to the right price - not sure what that is yet .




If rates drop at the levels the market expects them to drop, I would stay away from them. There's better buying opportunities in other sectors (tech being the most obvious one)

To give you an example, look at how bad banks are doing in Europe under extremely low/negative rates.. really no growth since 2008.


----------



## Sheppy

Heading to Vegas in May with a bunch of buddies, going to grab $2k in USD and it's going to cost me (right now) - $2770. That's diiiiirrrrty


----------



## Bumpus

Sheppy said:


> Heading to Vegas in May with a bunch of buddies, going to grab $2k in USD and it's going to cost me (right now) - $2770. That's diiiiirrrrty



I'll sell you $2K for $2,600 ... There's a savings of $170 right there.

I'm a helluva guy.


----------



## BahlDeep

Bumpus said:


> I'll sell you $2K for $2,600 ... There's a savings of $170 right there.
> 
> I'm a helluva guy.




or that's a 170$ cost for you to launder it...


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bumpus said:


> I'll sell you $2K for $2,600 ... There's a savings of $170 right there.
> 
> I'm a helluva guy.




I'm assuming he's selling 2770 canadian dollars for 2000 US dollars. With oil at ~30$ a barrel its probable that the value of the loonie vs the US dollar will continue to decline. In other words, its not a good deal for you.


----------



## Sheppy

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I'm assuming he's selling 2770 canadian dollars for 2000 US dollars. With oil at ~30$ a barrel its probable that the value of the loonie vs the US dollar will continue to decline. In other words, its not a good deal for you.



Yeah, we're cocked over pretty good right now.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Breakers said:


> I wish I had more cash on hand to buy.






madinsomniac said:


> Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...
> 
> hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars
> 
> the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...






BahlDeep said:


> I fundamentally believe that this whole thing is way overblown.
> 
> 1) It didn't help that the emergency fed cut was way too soon and it was a completely stupid reaction - market expects at least a 100bps cut @ next meeting: CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC - CME Group
> 
> 2) Media outlets are running to the bank with this - adding to the panic
> 
> 3) Stay away from banks



Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.

There are times to buy. Right now is _*not*_ one of them.


----------



## LarryFisherman

Mud the ACAS said:


> Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.
> 
> There are times to buy. Right now is _*not*_ one of them.




The camp that underestimates the power of panic in our 24/7 cycle is going to be in a world of hurt. I couldn't agree with you more on this one.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.
> 
> There are times to buy. Right now is _*not*_ one of them.




If you look at how China is doing, there's every reason to be optimistic...it took them 2 months to contain it.

South Korea numbers are extremely promising.

There's fiscal and monetary policies being applied that is promising and will re-ignite the economy. The effects are not instantaneous.


----------



## Thucydides

Saudi increasing output today up to 13 million barrels. Russians are having meeting - if they increase output I would expect a pretty sharp drop in prices .

are electric cars soon to be a thing in the next 5-10 years ?
Looks like oil might be on its deathbed here. At least small scale producers in the USA and Canada . For a world that has run on oil for well over 100 years , wouldn’t the shock to the world economy be huge if it were to fall out ?

what are some blue chip stocks to keep an eye on?


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Saudi increasing output today up to 13 million barrels. Russians are having meeting - if they increase output I would expect a pretty sharp drop in prices .
> 
> are electric cars soon to be a thing in the next 5-10 years ?
> Looks like oil might be on its deathbed here. At least small scale producers in the USA and Canada . For a world that has run on oil for well over 100 years , wouldn’t the shock to the world economy be huge if it were to fall out ?
> 
> what are some blue chip stocks to keep an eye on?




Everybody is so focused on COVID19, however the oil crash is the biggest variable in driving the market down this week


----------



## Thucydides

WHO declares pandemic . Markets down but not crashing.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Markets are in free fall tonight.


----------



## Thucydides

Dow is down 1000 points in futures. Expecting the market to drop off hard tomorrow.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> If you look at how China is doing, there's every reason to be optimistic...it took them 2 months to contain it.
> 
> South Korea numbers are extremely promising.
> 
> There's fiscal and monetary policies being applied that is promising and will re-ignite the economy. The effects are not instantaneous.



This presumes that China is done. There's no reason to think that's the case.

This also presumes South Korea is done. Again, no reason to think that's the case.

Imagine cases from Europe and the U.S. manage to find their way back toward Asia and we have Coronavirus II: Second Verse, Same As the First. This cycle continues for a few rounds. You tell me how many people are thinking about that possibility, that this goes on for months. I guarantee it's not factored into the markets, and that's even considering S&P futures are currently -118 and on the way to limit down again.

I think we're about to have what I refer to as a _*get me the f*** out of here*_ moment. I don't think it will be the bottom (see comments above), but I think a hell of a lot of unbridled optimism is about to get flushed out of the markets and it's not coming back for a little while.


----------



## Breakers

Ohhh my poor portfolio just got dragged out back and beat with a hammer.


During tax season too.


----------



## Thucydides

Mud the ACAS said:


> This presumes that China is done. There's no reason to think that's the case.
> 
> This also presumes South Korea is done. Again, no reason to think that's the case.
> 
> Imagine cases from Europe and the U.S. manage to find their way back toward Asia and we have Coronavirus II: Second Verse, Same As the First. This cycle continues for a few rounds. You tell me how many people are thinking about that possibility, that this goes on for months. I guarantee it's not factored into the markets, and that's even considering S&P futures are currently -118 and on the way to limit down again.
> 
> I think we're about to have what I refer to as a _*get me the f*** out of here*_ moment. I don't think it will be the bottom (see comments above), but I think a hell of a lot of unbridled optimism is about to get flushed out of the markets and it's not coming back for a little while.




bottom out in may / June you figure? Hard to tell with these things though, but the market is in for a world of hurt for a bit. I bet the breakers are set off tmw. Halt 2 minutes into the trading day?


----------



## Retire91

I have been absoltutely wrecked this last 2 weeks. LOL I just dumped a major chunk into UBER also thinking it might be on its way up. Oh no lol Man I wish I had saved that cash for now. If you put your money in anything right now even if it still goes down you will get a 10-20% return in 1 year no problem.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

halincandenza said:


> bottom out in may / June you figure? Hard to tell with these things though, but the market is in for a world of hurt for a bit. I bet the breakers are set off tmw. Halt 2 minutes into the trading day?



If you're asking me to make a prediction, I'd say this doesn't bottom in a couple months. It bottoms when either the global number of cases slows _and_ we're definitely not re-transmitting this around the world, or we get to the point where we're running out of people to be infected.


----------



## Breakers

either major border being highly restricted or blocked in North America by a neighboring nation would be another whopper.
like huge huge drop

Mexico US border
Canada US border


----------



## someguy44

We are nowhere closed to the bottom. When this thing explodes in the States and it will, N. American stocks will take another huge hit. Only way out of this is through a working vaccine, the virus burns itself out (by infecting a lot of people like someone mentioned and can't infect anymore due to people building antibodies) or it just severely slows down due to social distancing and or warmer summer climates.


----------



## Thucydides

We may see the biggest buying opportunity since 2008, possibly of our lifetimes , here in the next few months. There is potentially a lot of money to be made if you play your cards right and pick the right stocks.


----------



## BahlDeep

someguy44 said:


> We are nowhere closed to the bottom. When this thing explodes in the States and it will, N. American stocks will take another huge hit. Only way out of this is through a working vaccine, the virus burns itself out (by infecting a lot of people like someone mentioned and can't infect anymore due to people building antibodies) or it just severely slows down due to social distancing and or warmer summer climates.




This should already be priced in... with growth forecasts slashed.


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> We may see the biggest buying opportunity since 2008, possibly of our lifetimes , here in the next few months. There is potentially a lot of money to be made if you play your cards right and pick the right stocks.




Absolutely... I might consider leveraging myself at the right time.


----------



## lukester

Already noticing inflation for food like pasta, rice and canned food. Toilet paper and masks have also risen in price. Gold is supposed to be a good hedge against inflation but it already is pricy.


----------



## Omark

My portfolio -40% last month.


----------



## LarryFisherman

Can't wait to lose another 7% of my net worth today. Let's gooooooo

i don't even have liquidity to buy puts because i had to buy blinds for my new house. smh


----------



## BahlDeep

LarryFisherman said:


> Can't wait to lose another 7% of my net worth today. Let's gooooooo
> 
> i don't even have liquidity to buy puts because i had to buy blinds for my new house. smh




Hahahaha


----------



## BahlDeep

lukester said:


> Already noticing inflation for food like pasta, rice and canned food. Toilet paper and masks have also risen in price. Gold is supposed to be a good hedge against inflation but it already is pricy.




Real Estate is an even better hedge


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Absolutely... I might consider leveraging myself at the right time.




yeah, I have sold out of my vanguard position around 60 bucks there a bit ago . I have been buying vanguard index fund for a long time . Today the premarket has it down to 50.00. I’m assuming today it’ll be in the 40’s. 

Just going to live very cheaply for the next 3-4 months and hoard all the cash I can. 

I know a buddy who took out a second mortgage on his house in the 08 crash and bought Microsoft for 20 bucks . 

don’t know if I want to risk that much, however tempting it sounds haha.


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Real Estate is an even better hedge




buy REIT’s?


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

LarryFisherman said:


> Can't wait to lose another 7% of my net worth today. Let's gooooooo
> 
> i don't even have liquidity to buy puts because i had to buy blinds for my new house. smh



Look on the bright side, now the neighbors won't be able to see you crying at 4pm today (like I will be too)


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> buy REIT’s?




Yes


----------



## Thucydides

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> Look on the bright side, now the neighbors won't be able to see you crying at 4pm today (like I will be too)




I think if you are invested in the market , it would be a good time to look away. The market will eventually come back. Don’t know when , but judging by history, it will come back .


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Yes




are you located in USA or Canada ? What exchange are you buying on?


----------



## LarryFisherman

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> Look on the bright side, now the neighbors won't be able to see you crying at 4pm today (like I will be too)




feel free to come over. i have some turpentine in the garage we can huff to kill the pain, if you're interested.


----------



## LarryFisherman

halincandenza said:


> I think if you are invested in the market , it would be a good time to look away. The market will eventually come back. Don’t know when , but judging by history, it will come back .




100%. This is really an issue if you were planning on retiring in the next year or two. For those of us in our 20s-30s this will just be a blip.

factually speaking (at least until this morning), the 2018 dip was worse from an overall points perspective, but the drama of overall gain loss this month has been outrageous.

our last spike was only due to biden winning super tuesday, which in itself is a whole new conversation filled with sadness and frustration as the democratic party drowns itself again with zero outside help


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

halincandenza said:


> I think if you are invested in the market , it would be a good time to look away. The market will eventually come back. Don’t know when , but judging by history, it will come back .




Yeah I'm not looking at my stocks or retirement right now...it's a good thing I only own long term investments at the moment. Amazing how quick the shit hit the fan these last 2 weeks


----------



## Thucydides

Happens quick when it happens . On the bright side if you are young , and can stash some cash, the opportunity that awaits us could be enormous.


----------



## PositiveCashFlow

Thought it was too late too short the SP500 on Monday, guess not.

Bitcoin down to $5850, short paying off there as well.


----------



## LarryFisherman

PositiveCashFlow said:


> Thought it was too late too short the SP500 on Monday, guess not.
> 
> Bitcoin down to $5850, short paying off there as well.



are there options on coins? i know nothing about the coin market. I bought some bitcoin a few times as it was volitle after the 18 crash, but never really got deep into it.


----------



## Thucydides

I


PositiveCashFlow said:


> Thought it was too late too short the SP500 on Monday, guess not.
> 
> Bitcoin down to $5850, short paying off there as well.




I think it’s going to get worse.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> I
> 
> 
> I think it’s going to get worse.




According to the bitcoin crowd, cryptos are going to infinity!


----------



## LarryFisherman

cnbc trolling by allowing you to watch nothing but the market plummet minute-over-minute



so good


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> are you located in USA or Canada ? What exchange are you buying on?




Canada, and if you are Canadian, buy US REITs to get the currency exposure


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Happens quick when it happens . On the bright side if you are young , and can stash some cash, the opportunity that awaits us could be enormous.




You need money to make money!


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Canada, and if you are Canadian, buy US REITs to get the currency exposure




im in Canada - with the low price of oil I don’t think I want to take a bite to on Canadian REIT’s just yet . 

waiting to see how this all plays out. Canadian banks hit hard today.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

just checking some of the obvious stocks that would be hit hard from the virus.

Airlines down mostly 50% across the board. 
Cruiseships - 60-80%
Hotels - 15-25%


----------



## LarryFisherman

Hindsight is always amazing.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

LarryFisherman said:


> Hindsight is always amazing.
> 
> View attachment 335029




The trump one where he says that "if your portfolio was _only_ up 50% that something was wrong" tweet was amazing in hindsight.


----------



## BahlDeep

Fed putting liquidity into the system...Market is ripping


----------



## LarryFisherman

BahlDeep said:


> Fed putting liquidity into the system...Market is ripping




shot up to -700 and is now hovering around -1400. Everybody make a quick dollar


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

QE 5 has begun.

Fed to pump more than $1 trillion in dramatic ramping up of market intervention


----------



## BahlDeep

LarryFisherman said:


> shot up to -700 and is now hovering around -1400. Everybody make a quick dollar




Sometimes, I wish I wasn't working for an asset manager...I would be able to intra-day trade


----------



## Thucydides

As much as the markets were rocked today they aren’t down enough to take an initial position in the ones I’ve been watching anyway.. I think it’ll get worse before it gets better. We haven’t hit peak virus yet in my opinion. 

in another two weeks does the USA look like Italy health care wise ? Does Canada ? What does the ripple effects of cancelling sports look like? 

Going to be interesting.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

I figured it was a good time to buy into oil stocks when they are down 50%+ from February


----------



## Thucydides

Any predictions for tmw boys ? Red day? Green day?


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Any predictions for tmw boys ? Red day? Green day?




Abaolutely no f***ing idea


----------



## Thucydides

Disneyland is shutting its parks, Boston marathon cancelled , MLB pushed back (it’ll be suspended), March madness cancelled, NYC declares state of emergency saying it could be 6 months of “chaos”. 

Circuit breakers will probably be tripped again tmw morning.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Any predictions for tmw boys ? Red day? Green day?




Early indications....


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Over the volcano

BahlDeep said:


> Fed putting liquidity into the system...Market is ripping



And we can’t afford universal healthcare ...


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Fixed to Ruin said:


>





Down another 1000$ since this tweet.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Down another 1000$ since this tweet.




Now its up 1500$ from its lows. Crazy volatility


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Watching Disney stock tank like the Red Wings this week. Closed under $90 in after hours, damn!


----------



## Thucydides

Disney will get wrecked tomorrow - they closed down their Parks after market closed today


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

halincandenza said:


> Disney will get wrecked tomorrow - they closed down their Parks after market closed today



Yes, exactly why I've been watching them. I was surprised when I heard so many people gun-ho about buying them when it was around $110. A LOT more pain to go through for Disney unfortunately


----------



## Namsayin

Any good blue chips with dividends to keep an eye on?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Dow futures down 600 pts in premarket trading.

Premarket Stock Trading - CNNMoney


----------



## BahlDeep

TheNewKid said:


> Any good blue chips with dividends to keep an eye on?




Apple should probably be your number 1


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Dow futures point to more than 700 point opening loss following market's worst day since 'Black Monday'


----------



## ItsFineImFine

Is this a decent strategy or stupid?:

Open up a Questrade account and invest my tax return into a high-equity all-in-one EFT which is not Canada-heavy and dollar-cost average it over the course of the next 1-2 weeks? I was planning on investing in around a year from now after paying off student loans but this seems like a good opportunity to buy low no and with student loan interest only being prime now.


----------



## Jedub

Looks like a good time to buy up the big guys in the next few months.
Apple, Disney, Facebook all going to be at bargain prices.
Going to be easy for anyone with some cash to make money over the next year.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Everything seems to be ripping off the lows. Might get a green day after all.


----------



## Namsayin

BahlDeep said:


> Apple should probably be your number 1



Thanks, figured them or a bank.

Still too soon for oil/gas? Phillips 66?


----------



## HockeyAddict

TheNewKid said:


> Any good blue chips with dividends to keep an eye on?



Rio Tinto (2nd biggest mining company in the world) is trading below $40... 10% dividend yield at those levels.


----------



## LarryFisherman

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Everything seems to be ripping off the lows. Might get a green day after all.




i'm not confident it runs away all day, but hope it does.

appl calls to the moooooooooooon today


----------



## Retire91

I feel like Disney would be a great buy right now. For the price to react to such a short term situation is a buy in my book, they own a stake in almost 90% of all entertainment sources on the planet.

Man this couple of weeks has hurt. On paper I am out about 130K in just two weeks. But if anyone one here did not live through 2008 I can tell you it comes back.


----------



## Jedub

Retire91 said:


> I feel like Disney would be a great buy right now. For the price to react to such a short term situation is a buy in my book, they own a stake in almost 90% of all entertainment sources on the planet.
> 
> Man this couple of weeks has hurt. On paper I am out about 130K in just two weeks. But if anyone one here did not live through 2008 I can tell you it comes back.




Dis is definitely attractive rn but I dont think the market has bottomed out yet.

But why listen to me, a random guy on the internet?


----------



## Retire91

Jedub said:


> Dis is definitely attractive rn but I dont think the market has bottomed out yet.
> 
> But why listen to me, a random guy on the internet?




haha us random guys gotta stick together.


----------



## LarryFisherman

Jedub said:


> Dis is definitely attractive rn but I dont think the market has bottomed out yet.
> 
> But why listen to me, a random guy on the internet?




i don't see how there's not a selloff once we get some real testing numbers and cases start to explode. There will be a second wave of panic and selloff on today's (and maybe bleeding into next weeks) profits.

i'm also just some rando who's lost 30% of his monies in the last 2-3 weeks, so what do i know.


----------



## Retire91

Fixed to Ruin said:


>





I little part of me dies inside each time I see bit coin come up. I literally looked at bitcoin in 2014 and because it had doubled in value already to $200 each I thought I missed the boat  It was also around that time where the report came out where bicoins got lost and the company just had bitcoins on USB's sitting in desk drawers. I would have had to borrow money to buy it so I talked my self out of it. I literally cry myself to sleep sometimes.


----------



## Jedub

LarryFisherman said:


> i don't see how there's not a selloff once we get some real testing numbers and cases start to explode. There will be a second wave of panic and selloff on today's (and maybe bleeding into next weeks) profits.
> 
> i'm also just some rando who's lost 30% of his monies in the last 2-3 weeks, so what do i know.




Yup, Dis now almost at yesterday's close already lol. Trump will spew some crap around 3 to try to convince people things are fine, meanwhile cases go up and consumer spending craters. Buy a bit today if you're particularly risk averse but I'd save 90% of anything you hope to invest for the upcoming week(s).


----------



## PositiveCashFlow

LarryFisherman said:


> are there options on coins? i know nothing about the coin market. I bought some bitcoin a few times as it was volitle after the 18 crash, but never really got deep into it.



Derbit allows for options trading on Bitcoin. I don’t do options myself though, just directional perpetual futures trading on ByBit.


----------



## HockeyAddict

Trump is scheduled to have a press conference @ 15:00... I'd keep my powder dry until after his press conference in case he freaks out the market again.


----------



## Thucydides

Trump declares national emergency . Bear market incoming.


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Trump declares national emergency . Bear market incoming.




Not at all lolll


----------



## Thucydides

Yeah it ran up didn’t it. Weird. Hahah

see what happens over the weekend .


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

nice day for those who bought the dip yesterday. 

although I wouldn't be surprised to see a red Monday


----------



## HockeyAddict

It will depend on the weekend developments but it sounds like the US is finally getting its ducks in a row so I think its going up on Monday... but its going to be a ride for the next few weeks.


----------



## JMCx4

halincandenza said:


> Yeah it ran up didn’t it. Weird. Hahah
> 
> see what happens over the weekend .



This is certainly no time to let go of the safety bar. But if you do choose to stand up in your seat, please be kind to your fellow riders and tuck in your legs & arms as you fly over their heads.


----------



## Thucydides

It’s going to be a ride for the next little while for sure.

looking at the chart of the last recession in 2008, when it first starts, you can see big drops followed by big bounces before it really takes a dive.

There’s still hope in the markets right now - time to buy is when things look hopeless. Doesn’t look like that yet.

we will have a better idea by mid April where this is all headed .


----------



## HockeyAddict

Netflix should see a spike in subscribers worldwide over the next month or two... predict their numbers will look good for H1 2020.


----------



## Thucydides

The news this weekend has been mostly grim. Hope you are all safe and in good health. 

any predictions for tmw ? 

I’m expecting red. The North American economy is about to come to a standstill. Sure the feds are pumping a trillion five into the market , but it lost eleven trillion since the downfall . 

good call on Netflix. It won’t be the first thing that people cut out of their lives but if it goes on for any length of time people may start to cut it- Netflix has already announced they are halting filming on a few movies and shows .


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

I don't think they can print enough money to solve this problem


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I don't think they can print enough money to solve this problem





Red tomorrow?


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

halincandenza said:


> Red tomorrow?



Futures just opened red, so looks like it could


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Red tomorrow?




S&P Futures are limit down


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Everything is in freefall after the Fed threw the kitchen sink at the markets.

That's probably not a good sign.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## LarryFisherman

This is going to be a bloodbath.

2008 was bad, and intra-bank confidence tanked like never before. But this virus shit shutting down the entire world (it's only getting worse... way worse here in the US) is a whole new territory, and something this administration is woefully unprepared for. All they care about is the illusion of success, not actually containing and killing the virus.

Pumping in another $700bn in quantitive easing is only going make people panic harder. Two rate cuts in a week and a half? Now what do we have? Negative rates? That's gonna work real well.

This whole thing is a front for Novembers re-election and there's no chance it can prop up that long. Not to get too politic-y, but I hope deep-rooted supporters of this administration can finally start to see the smoke and mirrors that have followed this leader for his entire career. You can't print your way out of total economic shutdown due to pandemic.


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> S&P Futures are limit down





Wow, that’s crazy! I don’t think the market likes the fed cut or the 700 billion they’re throwing at it. It’s spitting on a forest fire at this point. Tomorrow will be ugly for the bulls .


----------



## Xelebes

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Everything is in freefall after the Fed threw the kitchen sink at the markets.
> 
> That's probably not a good sign.




After a certain point you have to stop looking at the markets and have to look at the larger picture. Companies are not going to turn to IPOs to raise cash when it comes to bridging this gap of turbulence. They are going to go to the debt markets and seeing what they can get to tide them over. People are also needing liquidity so that they can cover their expenses so that is money disappearing from the stock market.

The stock market is mildly interesting because it updates its numbers so frequently. That can also be a problem as they can draw too many eyes towards it rather than the problem. In this case, Trump is responding to the stock market instead of more important matters because the stock market is updating its numbers so often while others which should be more important are boring and static for too long.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Short: we are now Japan, after telling Japan for some 15 years not to do what it did.

Long: the Fed just beat the f*** out of the panic button until it stuck. It has practically no practical left to deal with anything else negative that happens unless (until) it gets permission to buy stocks either directly or indirectly, and the market is about to figure that out. Instead of normalizing rates over the last several years like it should have done and reducing its balance sheet to much smaller levels and letting the free market do its job, the Fed has shot its credibility in a vain attempt to prop up stock prices at any cost.

Coming up soon? Increased volatility with more downside risk, bans on short selling in a vain attempt to stop declines (spoiler: like 2008, it's going to fail miserably) and a better than 50/50 chance that the markets get shut down for at least a week while the government tries to figure out what the hell to do.

COVID-19 was a problem that could have been dealt with, albeit with some heartburn. This government and Mnuchin/Powell just turned it into a full-blown crisis for no f***ing reason other than "we don't want to look bad." We're all going to pay for it.


----------



## Ainec

holy f*** boys


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Ainec

I bought spy puts, shorts, and inverse index etfs

what else is there?


----------



## LarryFisherman

Ainec said:


> I bought spy puts, shorts, and inverse index etfs
> 
> what else is there?




you autist

how many contracts?


----------



## AtlantaWhaler

Oil below $29. Energy stocks are a great buy if you can hold for awhile.


----------



## Thucydides

Market halted - hit the circuit breakers. Think there’s 3 trips it can fall through and then it’s closed for the day . I expect we will hit that before lunch time.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Le CH said:


> Netflix should see a spike in subscribers worldwide over the next month or two... predict their numbers will look good for H1 2020.




Not if they keep putting out garbage like Spenser Confidential


----------



## Thucydides

Question - one of the stocks I’m following , the vanguard index fund - VUN.to doesn’t seem to be trading at all . Stuck at 51.03 though the bid and the ask is both 45.50. The other stocks on the TSX seem to be trading but not this one.

any clue why?

never mind , it’s trading now. Weird.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

halincandenza said:


> Market halted - hit the circuit breakers. Think there’s 3 trips it can fall through and then it’s closed for the day . I expect we will hit that before lunch time.



After we bottomed around -11.5%, we've rebounded into the -9% to -10% range and kind of hung there with a few dips. We might have found a floor for the day. (Not for the year.) I'm watching small caps right now and I'm seeing more stabilization, though not actual buying. The S&P is trending up, but I don't know how much of that is buying on the very largest names while the rest of the index gets nuked. There's a very slow trend up at the moment, but not enough for me to say "OK, I'd get back long with caution." Regardless, it's pretty clear that "cut rates to zero, give half a *t*rillion to banks to lend" got greeted by the markets with a fat middle finger - as it should have been.



Ainec said:


> I bought spy puts, shorts, and inverse index etfs
> 
> what else is there?



Caution. I would make sure you've got stops in place in case the market closes (I think it's greater than 50% chance) and can get out of those positions before it happens. Even though you were right about what was going to happen and how it would have impacted the market, if you can't actually execute on that because you're frozen and you can't exercise options you could get f***ed - and not the "I went to the strip club, picked up this hot girl and we went back to my place and banged like bunnies all weekend" kind of f***ed, the "Ned Beatty in Deliverance" kind.

I would also say to be prepared for continued volatility. That part isn't done yet, and some people are going to get their faces ripped off trying to trade this on both sides.


----------



## Thucydides

Mud the ACAS said:


> After we bottomed around -11.5%, we've rebounded into the -9% to -10% range and kind of hung there with a few dips. We might have found a floor for the day. (Not for the year.) I'm watching small caps right now and I'm seeing more stabilization, though not actual buying. The S&P is trending up, but I don't know how much of that is buying on the very largest names while the rest of the index gets nuked. There's a very slow trend up at the moment, but not enough for me to say "OK, I'd get back long with caution." Regardless, it's pretty clear that "cut rates to zero, give half a *t*rillion to banks to lend" got greeted by the markets with a fat middle finger - as it should have been.
> 
> 
> Caution. I would make sure you've got stops in place in case the market closes (I think it's greater than 50% chance) and can get out of those positions before it happens. Even though you were right about what was going to happen and how it would have impacted the market, if you can't actually execute on that because you're frozen and you can't exercise options you could get f***ed - and not the "I went to the strip club, picked up this hot girl and we went back to my place and banged like bunnies all weekend" kind of f***ed, the "Ned Beatty in Deliverance" kind.
> 
> I would also say to be prepared for continued volatility. That part isn't done yet, and some people are going to get their faces ripped off trying to trade this on both sides.




very well said. I would be worried about shorting right now in case the market closes for a week, and then comes back and goes on a roar and you’re burned. 

But you could make a killing shorting right now. 

seems the market is stabilizing for the moment. I’m trying to find my entry point. I don’t think we are there yet though.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

I don't know why anyone would jump in at this point unless you're a day trader. This is just the beginning. The damage to the economy is significant and unknown. As the old saying goes. "Don't try to catch falling knives".


----------



## MaxV

Jeez, I thought I was buying big bargains last week...

I’m transferring more cash to my brokerage account. Time to go bigger.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I don't know why anyone would jump in at this point unless you're a day trader. This is just the beginning. The damage to the economy is significant and unknown. As the old saying goes. "Don't try to catch falling knives".





MaxV said:


> Jeez, I thought I was buying big bargains last week...
> 
> I’m transferring more cash to my brokerage account. Time to go bigger.



This is why we're not done going down - because too many people are still trying to buy the dip and not enough are saying "f*** it, I'm done, I'm taking what's left of my gains over the last ~11 years and going home." This is a *really* bad place to be trying to catch a falling knife on faith that _it will all go up again._ If you want an idea of what to expect for this market go look at the Nikkei the last 30 years. We're doing everything Japan has done, even though we told them for 20+ years not to do it because it wasn't going to fix anything.

All that said, I don't have the balls to do it, but if I did I would leverage the f*** out of everything I have and go bullish on the market for the rest of today on the bet that we go from -11% to +11% in a single session. But only for today. The yearly lows aren't in here.


----------



## Thucydides

I don’t understand the market sometimes - the news out there is nothing but bad and yet the market is climbing ? Seems odd.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> I don’t understand the market sometimes - the news out there is nothing but bad and yet the market is climbing ? Seems odd.




Short Covering and the Fed buying stuff will do that.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Oh yeah, we're probably going to see more than a dozen +/- 5%+ days over the next month until it finally settles. 
I think when the VIX gets back down to 30 we might be able to see the bottom.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> This is why we're not done going down - because too many people are still trying to buy the dip and not enough are saying "f*** it, I'm done, I'm taking what's left of my gains over the last ~11 years and going home." This is a *really* bad place to be trying to catch a falling knife on faith that _it will all go up again._ If you want an idea of what to expect for this market go look at the Nikkei the last 30 years. We're doing everything Japan has done, even though we told them for 20+ years not to do it because it wasn't going to fix anything.
> 
> All that said, I don't have the balls to do it, but if I did I would leverage the f*** out of everything I have and go bullish on the market for the rest of today on the bet that we go from -11% to +11% in a single session. But only for today. The yearly lows aren't in here.




As crazy as the last little while has been we are _only _down ~30% on the major indices. When you go sector by sector you find lots that are 50%+ down. Just think about this logically. 

Is anyone buying a car right now? What about a house? Is anyone paying their loans? Going out to eat? Buying TVs? ect ect.

I don't see a V shaped recovery. Just a Fed pump, QE and bailouts.


----------



## BahlDeep

I think the panic is setting for amazing buying opportunities. A lot of people are getting out because either they think the world is ending (hyperbole) or because they need liquidity. 

If you are investing money you don't need in the short term, you would be a damn fool to not buy this market. 

And stay away from Energy


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I don't think they can print enough money to solve this problem





Print that money! 

Fed says it will offer an additional $500 billion in overnight repo funding markets


----------



## Mildan

i just bought barclays shares at 0.84. considering they pay 9p /share dividends this year, I think it's quite remarkable value..


----------



## VanillaCoke

BahlDeep said:


> I think the panic is setting for amazing buying opportunities. A lot of people are getting out because either they think the world is ending (hyperbole) or because they need liquidity.
> 
> If you are investing money you don't need in the short term, you would be a damn fool to not buy this market.
> 
> And stay away from Energy



Why avoid energy stocks?


----------



## BahlDeep

VanillaCoke said:


> Why avoid energy stocks?




Because it's a commodity where a country like Saudi Arabia have too much influence on the price.

Way too much geopolitical risk. You can find way better opportunities somewhere else. Don't let the yield fool you.

In 10 years, you made no money with Energy, and that's before the market even crashes this year.


----------



## Ainec

I'm shorting peloton and tesla right now

Thoughts

Cashed out some of my other puts


----------



## BahlDeep

Ainec said:


> I'm shorting peloton and tesla right now
> 
> Thoughts
> 
> Cashed out some of my other puts




I'm not too sure about Tesla.. you just have to hope the market doesn't rebound....or Elon musk tweeting that this crisis is stupid


----------



## AtlantaWhaler

BahlDeep said:


> Because it's a commodity where a country like Saudi Arabia have too much influence on the price.
> 
> Way too much geopolitical risk. You can find way better opportunities somewhere else. Don't let the yield fool you.
> 
> In 10 years, you made no money with Energy, and that's before the market even crashes this year.
> View attachment 336545



But if you got out after the first six years, you banked. Oil is at $28 now. Not a chance it stays remotely close to that. If you can hold for a year, I’d go in


----------



## BahlDeep

AtlantaWhaler said:


> *But if you got out after the first six years, you banked*. Oil is at $28 now. Not a chance it stays remotely close to that. If you can hold for a year, I’d go in




Sure, but I rather not play the market timing game, especially when it comes to energy.

There's better opportunities somewhere else.


----------



## AtlantaWhaler

BahlDeep said:


> Sure, but I rather not play the market timing game, especially when it comes to energy.
> 
> There's better opportunities somewhere else.



Oil hasn’t been this low in a long, long time. This is a great opportunity.


----------



## BahlDeep

AtlantaWhaler said:


> Oil hasn’t been this low in a long, long time. This is a great opportunity.




I didn't say it wasn't. I said I would be more comfortable shooting myself in the foot then owning oil.


----------



## MaxV

I had plans to pay off my mortgage ahead of time, in 12 months, but I might have to extend that a bit.


----------



## LarryFisherman

MaxV said:


> I had plans to pay off my mortgage ahead of time, in 12 months, but I might have to extend that a bit.




tell me what it's like at the top

I'm $365,000 away lmfao


----------



## Ainec

Mrw peloton pumping while spy tanking again


----------



## BahlDeep

Air Canada looks very very attractive right now


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

BahlDeep said:


> Air Canada looks very very attractive right now



I've been throwing some stuff at them


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Going out on the lows. Relief rally tomorrow IMO as people try to pick through the rubble for value. I think you've got one last shot to sell and lock in gains before we finish the drop.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Dow plunges 3,000 points, as coronavirus market collapse continues; worst day since '87


----------



## LarryFisherman

Mud the ACAS said:


> Going out on the lows. Relief rally tomorrow IMO as people try to pick through the rubble for value. I think you've got one last shot to sell and lock in gains before we finish the drop.




assuming daddy trump doesn't decide to pressure the fed into blowing its load into further qe+negative rates. luckily all he said today is "it'll take care of itself" which is about the most reassuring thing he's said in two weeks.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

LarryFisherman said:


> assuming daddy trump doesn't decide to pressure the fed into blowing its load into further qe+negative rates. luckily all he said today is "it'll take care of itself" which is about the most reassuring thing he's said in two weeks.



The Fed really has no other tools than to choke the economy with liquidity (hello, inflation!), drive Treasury yields negative (good luck with that), or get permission to buy stocks directly (still hasn't helped Japan after decades of it). Its best move is to stay the f*** out of the way and let the free market work for a change. It hasn't done this for at least 12 years (arguably, quite longer) and we're now seeing the unwinding of a 3rd massive bubble in 20 years.

And to everyone who thinks "when the Fed cuts rates, it's great for stocks and that's a great time to buy?" Let this serve as (yet another) reminder that it's all bullshit. The Fed cuts rates when it thinks things are bad; markets see that and say "wait, if the Fed is cutting then something is f***ed" and sell accordingly.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> The Fed really has no other tools than to choke the economy with liquidity (hello, inflation!), drive Treasury yields negative (good luck with that), or get permission to buy stocks directly (still hasn't helped Japan after decades of it). Its best move is to stay the f*** out of the way and let the free market work for a change. It hasn't done this for at least 12 years (arguably, quite longer) and we're now seeing the unwinding of a 3rd massive bubble in 20 years.
> 
> And to everyone who thinks "when the Fed cuts rates, it's great for stocks and that's a great time to buy?" Let this serve as (yet another) reminder that it's all bullshit. The Fed cuts rates when it thinks things are bad; markets see that and say "wait, if the Fed is cutting then something is f***ed" and sell accordingly.




If you let the free market do its thing you won't get bankers getting giant bonuses or CEO using 0% interest loans to buy back stocks and push up share prices. The horror!


----------



## HockeyAddict

BahlDeep said:


> Air Canada looks very very attractive right now



Ouff… beware of catching falling knives.


----------



## BahlDeep

Le CH said:


> Ouff… beware of catching falling knives.




So you think the comoany is going to fold?


----------



## HockeyAddict

Its really too early to know but the major airlines (US based, Lufthansa etc) have already begun talking/asking for a bailout... IMO, you're taking a big gamble.


----------



## Ainec

anyone buying physical gold and silver? the paper stuff is cheap

also what's the Canadian preppers/safe haven equivalent of guns and ammos (don't say Toilet Paper)


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> So you think the comoany is going to fold?



People thought Bank of America was a screaming buy circa October 17, 2008 with an explicit government backstop after acquiring Merrill Lynch and the stock some 57% off the late 2006 highs, even with the dividend cut in half. They got to watch the stock drop about 83% in the next 6 months and the dividend get slashed _again_ to $0.04 a year, and didn't get back to even for over 8 years. The dividend has still yet to fully come back from even the October, 2008 level.

The point: that which is already low can always go lower. Sometimes, much lower.


----------



## HockeyAddict

BahlDeep said:


> So you think the comoany is going to fold?




Coronavirus could bankrupt most airlines by end of May, consultant warns


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

GM offering 0% financing for 7 years, deferred payments amid coronavirus outbreak


----------



## BahlDeep

Le CH said:


> Coronavirus could bankrupt most airlines by end of May, consultant warns




In Air Canada case, they will 100% get bailed by the Govt if this would to happen


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Market seems to think the airlines will get a bailout if needed, hence why AAL is up.

I would be shocked if Canada wouldn't do the same for Air Canada too


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Fixed to Ruin said:


> GM offering 0% financing for 7 years, deferred payments amid coronavirus outbreak



Time for a new Silverado 

I think JetBlue is the only airline stock I'd consider


----------



## Thucydides

Air Canada has gone bankrupt before back in 2003. They easily could again. If they are bailed out by government , shareholders will get screwed.


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

I'm not very good at this so far, my practice $500 turned into $425 in 2½ weeks on wealthsimple 

What should i look for at opening tomorrow, I have $75 that I don't have invested right now and I could put a limit buy on something (this is the first day that I do not finish with nothing to buy at closure/opening, for once, since I've missed so many opportunities I otherwise called due to not having funds lel)


----------



## LarryFisherman

Mud the ACAS said:


> The Fed really has no other tools than to choke the economy with liquidity (hello, inflation!), drive Treasury yields negative (good luck with that), or get permission to buy stocks directly (still hasn't helped Japan after decades of it). Its best move is to stay the f*** out of the way and let the free market work for a change. It hasn't done this for at least 12 years (arguably, quite longer) and we're now seeing the unwinding of a 3rd massive bubble in 20 years.
> 
> And to everyone who thinks "when the Fed cuts rates, it's great for stocks and that's a great time to buy?" Let this serve as (yet another) reminder that it's all bullshit. The Fed cuts rates when it thinks things are bad; markets see that and say "wait, if the Fed is cutting then something is f***ed" and sell accordingly.




i'm 0% economist and mostly just a dumb idiot, but i was surprised by the quick succession of the rate cut yesterday. maybe it was an actual necessity considering our current situation, but seemed pretty obvious from a 50,000ft view that it was going to create more panic as everyone further questioned economic stability and lost more confidence. today's decimation was absolutely no surprise to me.


----------



## Thucydides

Zaide said:


> I'm not very good at this so far, my practice $500 turned into $425 in 2½ weeks on wealthsimple
> 
> What should i look for at opening tomorrow, I have $75 that I don't have invested right now and I could put a limit buy on something (this is the first day that I do not finish with nothing to buy at closure/opening, for once, since I've missed so many opportunities I otherwise called due to not having funds lel)




Stash your cash my man, and find a couple stocks you like , blue chips and watch them and when you think “they can’t go any lower” start buying and keep buying them when they go lower .

a safe investment is the vanguard total index . VTI in the USA and vun.to on the Canadian exchange TSX. It’s not a sexy stock. It’s not going to make you a million bucks , but you’ll make money on it eventually . there will be lots of stocks out there where you think “if I throw a thousand bucks at it, I could get 10:1 returns”, but you’re gambling .

we are in unprecedented times .

Stocks on my watchlist if the price is right :

apple
Microsoft
And if they fall low enough CRISPR & Beyond Meat.


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

halincandenza said:


> Stash your cash my man, and find a couple stocks you like , blue chips and watch them and when you think “they can’t go any lower” start buying and keep buying them when they go lower .
> 
> a safe investment is the vanguard total index . VTI in the USA and vun.to on the Canadian exchange TSX. It’s not a sexy stock. It’s not going to make you a million bucks , but you’ll make money on it eventually . there will be lots of stocks out there where you think “if I throw a thousand bucks at it, I could get 10:1 returns”, but you’re gambling .
> 
> we are in unprecedented times .
> 
> Stocks on my watchlist if the price is right :
> 
> apple
> Microsoft
> And if they fall low enough CRISPR & Beyond Meat.



i'll be honest, I kinda started with just $100 (as i said, I'm debuting on the stock market, I have a few thousands invested in balanced portfolios elsewhere), and with just that, I started playing with lower priced stocks, even some penny stocks. That's some gambling, and probably wasn't wise for a novice. But that's because I was appealed by all the 50+% growth on a day. 

I'm trying to recoup that 75$ lost (which i would have this morning if WS wasn't so slow) and invest in some safer stuff. I thought Air Canada was decent at that price, but seems not after reading this thread (only have 4 shares that I bought at under 20$), so I'm not sure if I should just short sell tomorrow morning before losing too much off them.

I've been looking at inverse ETFs but both times they skyrocketed, I didn't have any fund to throw at them in the morning (before they went up), even though the jump was obvious. I feel like they could be the easiest way to get back that 75$ (i know it's nothing, but as I was saying, I'm kind of using these 500$ to learn more too)

Microsoft and Beyond were already on my watchlist. Not sure how to qualify "low enough". I also don't like how simplistic WS's interface is compared to, say, TD Ameritrade's platform (that I see in lots of videos), since it misses so much information. Maybe that's where I should start putting my dual screen phone at use. Are there any apps that are great to follow the market and that show prices in real time?


----------



## VanillaCoke

BahlDeep said:


> Because it's a commodity where a country like Saudi Arabia have too much influence on the price.
> 
> Way too much geopolitical risk. You can find way better opportunities somewhere else. Don't let the yield fool you.
> 
> In 10 years, you made no money with Energy, and that's before the market even crashes this year.
> View attachment 336545



Well damn I was definitely going to buy oil


----------



## Thucydides

Are you paying commissions on the buying and selling end? So every penny it moves up you would make 4 cents and With a 9.99 fee (both ways) you would need it to go up almost 6 bucks from where you bought it in order to recoup just your commissions . And I can’t see airlines moving upwards for the next couple of months.

With 75 bucks I would probably gamble it on a biotech stock that is working to find a Coronavirus vaccine and hope you catch lightning in a bottle , but that’s just me.

good luck 

if the stock market is something that does really interest you check out the book “a random walk down Wall Street” . Great place to start . 

beyond meat is a steal $50 and under, IMO.


----------



## Ainec

why do you like beyond meat?

I tried the burger it's really good tbh but no moat and most of all can get meme'd to death because it's really not healthy


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

This is why our economy is so screwed up and these companies deserve nothing on terms of government assistance.

U.S. Airlines Spent 96% of Free Cash Flow on Buybacks


----------



## Ainec

Fixed to Ruin said:


> This is why our economy is so screwed up and these companies deserve nothing on terms of government assistance.
> 
> U.S. Airlines Spent 96% of Free Cash Flow on Buybacks




robbing the american people

do canadian central banks and companies do this?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Everybody is going to get a bailout.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Ainec said:


> robbing the american people
> 
> do canadian central banks and companies do this?




They have been bailing out Bombardier since i was in diapers.


----------



## Ainec

I always wonder how they determine which corporations get bailouts and which they let fail


----------



## Ainec

have they ever bailed out corporations that ended up downsizing (firing) their staff anyways? Due to automation or saving costs


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

halincandenza said:


> Are you paying commissions on the buying and selling end? So every penny it moves up you would make 4 cents and With a 9.99 fee (both ways) you would need it to go up almost 6 bucks from where you bought it in order to recoup just your commissions . And I can’t see airlines moving upwards for the next couple of months.
> 
> With 75 bucks I would probably gamble it on a biotech stock that is working to find a Coronavirus vaccine and hope you catch lightning in a bottle , but that’s just me.
> 
> good luck
> 
> if the stock market is something that does really interest you check out the book “a random walk down Wall Street” . Great place to start .
> 
> beyond meat is a steal $50 and under, IMO.



WealthSimple is the only one, AFAIK, that offers market trades without commissions to the general public (aka not those that are ready to invest 5+ figures from the get go) in Canada. They make money with other services (low fee automated portfolios that adapt to your profiles, fixed growth investments, and currency exchange which obviously happens when trading for US stocks but nothing frivolous).

I'll look at the book, though I'm more of an "analytic person" that likes to analyze data and graph and stuff, hence why I'd like to get my hands on a good market watching app that lets me use indicators and stuff.

Anyone has any idea what these bailouts request may result in in the short term, both for these industries and the rest?


----------



## VanillaCoke

I would definitely not buy beyond meat.


----------



## Ainec

Zaide said:


> WealthSimple is the only one, AFAIK, that offers market trades without commissions to the general public (aka not those that are ready to invest 5+ figures from the get go) in Canada. They make money with other services (low fee automated portfolios that adapt to your profiles, fixed growth investments, and currency exchange which obviously happens when trading for US stocks but nothing frivolous).
> 
> I'll look at the book, though I'm more of an "analytic person" that likes to analyze data and graph and stuff, hence why I'd like to get my hands on a good market watching app that lets me use indicators and stuff.
> 
> Anyone has any idea what these bailouts request may result in in the short term, both for these industries and the rest?




can't short
can't convert CAD to USD
and US exchange rate is terrible


----------



## Thucydides

Ainec said:


> why do you like beyond meat?
> 
> I tried the burger it's really good tbh but no moat and most of all can get meme'd to death because it's really not healthy




I think plant based diets are on the rise .






I think beyond meat is going to be big . Before the crash beyond meat was steady around 90-100 bucks . At 50 bucks (or lower) when the market rebounds you’d make some good coin, IMO.

and it’s not too long ago that beyond meat was over $200 a share. 

this is why I’d be interested in beyond meat.


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

RIP Sears..I bet this will finally be their death blow


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Dow 20,000 everyone! Break out your "Dow 20,000" hats to celebrate!"

Wait, it's under - never mind.
No, wait - it's over! Party back on!
No, it's back under.
No, it's over! And, back under.
And over! Under! Over! Under! Over! Under!


----------



## HSF

would you guys wait to invest?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> RIP Sears..I bet this will finally be their death blow




wait. they are still alive?


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Fixed to Ruin said:


> wait. they are still alive?



I have 3 Sears stores in a 20 mile radius of my home, so very much alive to me


----------



## BahlDeep

Air Canada price is even more attractive now...

My theory with airlines is they will have a slow rebound.


----------



## VanillaCoke

BahlDeep said:


> Air Canada price is even more attractive now...
> 
> My theory with airlines is they will have a slow rebound.



Was just looking at it too, very attractive but more travel restrictions could mean even lower bottom


----------



## lukester

halincandenza said:


> I think plant based diets are on the rise .
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think beyond meat is going to be big . Before the crash beyond meat was steady around 90-100 bucks . At 50 bucks (or lower) when the market rebounds you’d make some good coin, IMO.
> 
> and it’s not too long ago that beyond meat was over $200 a share.
> 
> this is why I’d be interested in beyond meat.




Im sure if you plug in paleo diet or even carnivore diet, the rise would be similar.

I remember reading that meat consunption in asia was skyrocketing.


On another note. If you read the comments in the dow live streams on youtube, a lot of people are cheering the drops. Some even want a full scale collapse.


----------



## Jedub

lukester said:


> Im sure if you plug in paleo diet or even carnivore diet, the rise would be similar.
> 
> I remember reading that meat consunption in asia was skyrocketing.



Beyond meat has great branding and market presence atm. It's really not healthy at all, but I dont think it's going anywhere before the fast food chains do. Westerners are eager for non animal products that are cheap and tasty. Imo a buy at around 50 would be a decent hold for the next few years.

Anyone have anything invested in ketosis diet products? Keto diets really work. I know people who lost 100+ pounds and have kept the weight for years off just by cutting out sugar (and other carbs).


----------



## lukester

Jedub said:


> Beyond meat has great branding and market presence atm. It's really not healthy at all, but I dont think it's going anywhere before the fast food chains do. Westerners are eager for non animal products that are cheap and tasty. Imo a buy at around 50 would be a decent hold for the next few years.
> 
> Anyone have anything invested in ketosis diet products? Keto diets really work. I know people who lost 100+ pounds and have kept the weight for years off just by cutting out sugar (and other carbs).





My body does best on 150 grams of carbs or under. But this is the stock thread so wont discus nutrition since I will get carried away haha. Personally I know people who eat beyond meat and other substitutes. So I could see why its gaining popularity.


----------



## Jedub

lukester said:


> My body does best on 150 grams of carbs or under. But this is the stock thread so wont discus nutrition since I will get carried away haha. Personally I know people who eat beyond meat and other substitutes. So I could see why its gaining popularity.



It's been popular for a while. People loves the idea of "healthy" fast food. I would be wary of it being replaced by a healthier competing product but diets are definitely moving in this direction. I think eventually sugar will have it's TRUE public reckoning just as smoking did which is why I would be interested in getting in on keto products now. They are just starting to be stocked in major supermarkets and become a well-known commodity like gluten-free did. The difference is that not everyone has a gluten allergy but pretty much everyone is eating way too much sugar.


----------



## BahlDeep

Jedub said:


> It's been popular for a while.* People loves the idea of "healthy" fast food*. I would be wary of it being replaced by a healthier competing product but diets are definitely moving in this direction. I think eventually sugar will have it's TRUE public reckoning just as smoking did which is why I would be interested in getting in on keto products now. They are just starting to be stocked in major supermarkets and become a well-known commodity like gluten-free did. The difference is that not everyone has a gluten allergy but pretty much everyone is eating way too much sugar.




Until they find out it's really not. The amount of sodium in plant-based meat will be a concern at some point


----------



## Ted Hoffman

HSF said:


> would you guys wait to invest?



I don't know. There's a great argument to say "yes, go long" but it relies on ever-increasing amounts of government backstopping to keep things propped up. At some point, everything comes unglued because you run out of other people's money.

I thought the can-kicking would have had to stop years ago. Clearly the markets can remain irrational *much* longer than I expected.

We're probably going to end up huge today. +15% or more would not surprise me. (Yes, seriously. Especially after this press conference.) The question is how durable it is, and I don't have a clue. I don't have a good feel for where the market is headed, so I closed out of a long position (too early, took a loss on it) and I'm sitting on the sidelines to let things stabilize and provide some direction.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> I don't know. There's a great argument to say "yes, go long" but it relies on ever-increasing amounts of government backstopping to keep things propped up. At some point, everything comes unglued because you run out of other people's money.
> 
> I thought the can-kicking would have had to stop years ago. Clearly the markets can remain irrational *much* longer than I expected.
> 
> We're probably going to end up huge today. +15% or more would not surprise me. (Yes, seriously. Especially after this press conference.) The question is how durable it is, and I don't have a clue. I don't have a good feel for where the market is headed, so I closed out of a long position (too early, took a loss on it) and I'm sitting on the sidelines to let things stabilize and provide some direction.




Huge upswings days are signals of a bear markets. The biggest upswing days (in percentage) all happened during the worst market conditions. List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipedia

*Largest percentage changes*



RankDateCloseChangeNet%11933-03-1562.10+8.26+15.3421931-10-0699.34+12.86+14.8731929-10-30258.47+28.40+12.3441932-09-2175.16+7.67+11.3652008-10-139,387.61+936.42+11.0862008-10-289,065.12+889.35+10.8871987-10-212,027.85+186.84+10.1581932-08-0358.22+5.06+9.5291932-02-1178.60+6.80+9.47*10**2020-03-13**23,185.62**+1,985.00**+9.36*111929-11-14217.28+18.59+9.36121931-12-1880.69+6.90+9.35131932-02-1385.82+7.22+9.19141932-05-0659.01+4.91+9.08151933-04-1968.31+5.66+9.03161931-10-08105.79+8.47+8.70171932-06-1048.94+3.62+7.99181939-09-05148.12+10.03+7.26191931-06-03130.37+8.67+7.12201932-01-0676.31+5.07+7.12
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
[TBODY]
[/TBODY] 
*Largest daily percentage losses*

RankDateCloseChangeNet%11987-10-191,738.74−508.00−22.61*2**2020-03-16**20,188.52**−2,997.10**−12.93*31929-10-28260.64−38.33−12.8241929-10-29230.07−30.57−11.73*5**2020-03-12**21,200.62**−2,352.60**−9.99*61929-11-06232.13−25.55−9.9271899-12-1858.27−5.57−8.7281932-08-1263.11−5.79−8.4091907-03-1476.23−6.89−8.29101987-10-261,793.93−156.83−8.04112008-10-158,577.91−733.08−7.87121933-07-2188.71−7.55−7.84*13**2020-03-09**23,851.02**−2,013.76**−7.79*141937-10-18125.73−10.57−7.75152008-12-018,149.09−679.95−7.70162008-10-098,579.19−678.92−7.33171917-02-0188.52−6.91−7.24181997-10-277,161.14−554.26−7.18191932-10-0566.07−5.09−7.15202001-09-178,920.70−684.81−7.13
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]


----------



## LarryFisherman

Mud the ACAS said:


> I don't know. There's a great argument to say "yes, go long" but it relies on ever-increasing amounts of government backstopping to keep things propped up. At some point, everything comes unglued because you run out of other people's money.
> 
> I thought the can-kicking would have had to stop years ago. Clearly the markets can remain irrational *much* longer than I expected.
> 
> We're probably going to end up huge today. +15% or more would not surprise me. (Yes, seriously. Especially after this press conference.) The question is how durable it is, and I don't have a clue. I don't have a good feel for where the market is headed, so I closed out of a long position (too early, took a loss on it) and I'm sitting on the sidelines to let things stabilize and provide some direction.




i'm struggling to see a way out of this at all in the near future. we will bounce back - it always does. But i wouldn't hang my hat on today's rally and assume we're all back to normal. I don't think it would be stupid to add long plays even after today's spike, but i still can't shake that this stuff with covid is going to get way, way worse here, both from cases + death rate, but even just overall economic health. People are going to panic when we start to see a 4% mortality rate (roughly what it currently is worldwide based on _confirmed_ numbers) and cases 2x multiply every 3-6 days. Also, most hospitals in less densely populated areas are still doing OK, and once that starts to fall apart, i think we get a second wave of panic that tumbles the market even further.

Or, we're going to see a V shaped mini-recession and things are going to explode here and i'm going to look really dumb for not taking $140 MSFT or $250 AAPL plays right now. Something tells me that's really, really unlikely though.


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Until they find out it's really not. The amount of sodium in plant-based meat will be a concern at some point




I don’t think most are eating it for health reasons, and beyond meat is not claiming to be a “health” food, it’s gaining popularity because veganism is gaining popularity & animal products are being replaced at a rapid rate , if you look at the data .

dairy and big meat are panicking . Tyson foods the biggest meat company in the world invested a huge amount of $$ into beyond meat .

This is why I think beyond meat is a good investment if it falls under a certain price. But to each their own. There will be a lot of good investment opportunities out there other than this one.


----------



## Thucydides

LarryFisherman said:


> i'm struggling to see a way out of this at all in the near future. we will bounce back - it always does. But i wouldn't hang my hat on today's rally and assume we're all back to normal. I don't think it would be stupid to add long plays even after today's spike, but i still can't shake that this stuff with covid is going to get way, way worse here, both from cases + death rate, but even just overall economic health. People are going to panic when we start to see a 4% mortality rate (roughly what it currently is worldwide based on _confirmed_ numbers) and cases 2x multiply every 3-6 days. Also, most hospitals in less densely populated areas are still doing OK, and once that starts to fall apart, i think we get a second wave of panic that tumbles the market even further.
> 
> Or, we're going to see a V shaped mini-recession and things are going to explode here and i'm going to look really dumb for not taking $140 MSFT or $250 AAPL plays right now. Something tells me that's really, really unlikely though.




based on what has been going on in other countries it is set to explode in North America . Millions of people are off work - the economy is at a standstill here. 

Today is a dead cat bounce. The real drop is coming later this week or next, IMO.


----------



## Basement Cat

halincandenza said:


> I don’t think most are eating it for health reasons, and beyond meat is not claiming to be a “health” food, it’s gaining popularity because veganism is gaining popularity & animal products are being replaced at a rapid rate , if you look at the data .
> 
> dairy and big meat are panicking . Tyson foods the biggest meat company in the world invested a huge amount of $$ into beyond meat .
> 
> This is why I think beyond meat is a good investment if it falls under a certain price. But to each their own. There will be a lot of good investment opportunities out there other than this one.





Exactly - who eats a burger to be healthy? Veganism does not equal health, fad diet.


----------



## Jedub

BahlDeep said:


> Until they find out it's really not. The amount of sodium in plant-based meat will be a concern at some point



The fact that people eat fast food at all anymore makes me think that the facts wont drive people away for quite some time.


----------



## Ainec

beyond meat is expensive

i'd rather eat real junk food that cost less and are equally unhealthy



taken a beating today from pton short


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Ainec said:


> beyond meat is expensive
> 
> i'd rather eat real junk food that cost less and are equally unhealthy
> 
> 
> 
> taken a beating today from pton short




People need exercise now that all the gyms are closed.


----------



## Ainec

Fixed to Ruin said:


> People need exercise now that all the gyms are closed.




$2000 bike in a bear market and recession

peloton is nearly worth 2x the market cap of air canada


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Ainec said:


> $2000 bike in a bear market and recession
> 
> peloton is nearly worth 2x the market cap of air canada




I don't disagree. but in the short term people think that way. There's alot of these stocks that will go away soon.


----------



## rocketdan9

what is the best mutual fund to park money at now?

one would think it would be Health Science related. But it is also dropping

Its just folks want "liquid". And for many others, losing money on borrowed money


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Print that money!
> 
> Fed says it will offer an additional $500 billion in overnight repo funding markets





That's 1 trillion dollars a day for those who are scoring at home.


----------



## lukester

Ceo's that have stepped down from 4 days ago,


Microsoft, Bill Gates, 3/13 after forever
UPS, David Abney, 3/12 (after 6Y)
Disney CEO, Bob Iger, 2/25 (after 15 Y)
MasterCard CEO, Ajay Banga, 2/25 (after 10 Y)
Salesforce CEO, Keith Block, 2/25 (after 18 M)
Uber Eats VP, Jason Droege, 2/25 (after 6 Y)
Outdoor Voices CEO, Tyler Haney, 2/25 (after 8 Y)
Cansortium Cannabis CEO, Jose Hidalgo, 2/25 (after 5 Y)
St. Luke's Hospital CEO, Christine Candio, 2/25 (after 5 Y) (one of St. Louis' biggest hospitals)
JCPenney CMO, Shawn Gensch, 2/25 (after 9 M)
Bowers & Wilkins CEO Gregory Lee, 2/24 (after 2 M)
Bowers & Wilkins CFO Gideon Yu, 2/24 (after 4 Y)
L Brands CEO, Les Wexner, 2/20 (after 57 Y)
Credit Suisse CEO, Tidjane Thiam, 2/13 (after 5 Y)
MGM CEO, Jim Murren, 2/12 (after 12 Y)
Aurora Cannabis CEO, Terry Booth, 2/6 (+other big cuts)
LinkedIn CEO, Jeff Weiner, 2/5 (after 11 Y)
HULU CEO, Randy Freer, 1/31 (after 2 Y)
IBM CEO , Ginni Rometty, 1/30 (after 8 Y)
Match.com CEO, Mandy Ginsberg, 1/29 (health)
International Airlines Group (IAG) CEO, Willie Walsh, 1/9 (after 9 Y)

Now its up to 27.


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Walmart has reached an all time high this morning. Must be all the C19 related shoppers


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Ainec said:


> $2000 bike in a bear market and recession
> 
> peloton is nearly worth 2x the market cap of air canada



How long has Tesla been worth more than other automakers combined? It makes absolutely zero sense, but it doesn't stop people from buying on hopium.



Fixed to Ruin said:


> That's 1 trillion dollars a day for those who are scoring at home.




If we seriously need this much liquidity to keep things going, we are *so much more f***ed* than anyone realizes.

Which, on that vein, the Fed will now accept "a broad range of equity securities" [read: stocks] at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. The Fed just buying stocks directly is coming. No, it won't work like the Fed intends.

The Dow is clinging for dear life to 20,000 like there's algos out there programmed to buy at that point. I wonder what the "f*** it, sell" point is and how furiously algos start selling when that point is it.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> How long has Tesla been worth more than other automakers combined? It makes absolutely zero sense, but it doesn't stop people from buying on hopium.
> 
> 
> If we seriously need this much liquidity to keep things going, we are *so much more f***ed* than anyone realizes.
> 
> Which, on that vein, the Fed will now accept "a broad range of equity securities" [read: stocks] at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. The Fed just buying stocks directly is coming. No, it won't work like the Fed intends.
> 
> The Dow is clinging for dear life to 20,000 like there's algos out there programmed to buy at that point. I wonder what the "f*** it, sell" point is and how furiously algos start selling when that point is it.




Everything was a giant bubble in this debt based consumption economy. The virus was just the thing that made the bubble pop. Now governments will make unprecedented actions like bailouts, monetary stimulus and helicopter money to try to reinflate this bubble (aka save the 1%). Privatized profits and socialized losses is now our reality.


----------



## Thucydides

Some stocks that have fallen hard :

Royal Caribbean cruise - was over $120 a share it now sits at 21 a share. Risky though.

Air Canada was close to $40 a share it’s now $13

bank of Montreal was $104 a share it’s now $58

whitecap resources was 12 bucks a share it’s now 0.84 (oil)

the list could go on and on.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Don't know about everyone else, but I'm getting a decent exercise taking off and putting back on my Dow 20,000 hat.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

WTI Oil - 22.94$

edit - Looking at a historical chart we are getting close to testing lows of 18$ (Dec. 2001) and ~12$ (Jan 1999).

Oil spiked in 2008 at around 140$.


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> WTI Oil - 22.94$




some of these oil stocks have been completely rocked - vermillion energy a month ago was over $40. It’s 2.50 today. Suncor is at 15 bucks .

Trying to decide whether or not to make a small play in vermillion. If oil shoots back up to 30 bucks you have to think vermillion could easily double .


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Everything was a giant bubble in this debt based consumption economy. The virus was just the thing that made the bubble pop. Now governments will make unprecedented actions like bailouts, monetary stimulus and helicopter money to try to reinflate this bubble (aka save the 1%). Privatized profits and socialized losses is now our reality.



Oh I have no delusion about how much debt was in the system. I said that in 2008: the best solution was to take insolvent companies, wind them up, and sell off the pieces. You punish stupid decision-making, wipe out debt that can't be paid back, and set a bottom that we can work from. (There was also a point about jailing people for fraud, but that kind of seemed obvious.)

Nope, we got "let's let major companies stay alive, extend their debt out as far as we can, and not jail anyone - because doing any of that would be bad for the economy, and we can't do that." So, we got more debt and companies plowing money into stock buybacks and executive bonuses. That means we've got companies that are loaded to the gills with debt, some of which was used to do those things just noted. There's also some companies that are stressed even with interest rates at all-time lows and incredibly vulnerable to any kind of shock that takes us out of "everything is perfect, everything is fine."

It's exactly what Japan did in the 90s that we told them repeatedly, "don't do this - you're going to drag this out longer and not fix anything." We've now joined them in that boat. Japan has tried many of the things you've noted to reinflate its bubble; it's still never worked, and it's never going to.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> Oh I have no delusion about how much debt was in the system. I said that in 2008: the best solution was to take insolvent companies, wind them up, and sell off the pieces. You punish stupid decision-making, wipe out debt that can't be paid back, and set a bottom that we can work from. (There was also a point about jailing people for fraud, but that kind of seemed obvious.)
> 
> Nope, we got "let's let major companies stay alive, extend their debt out as far as we can, and not jail anyone - because doing any of that would be bad for the economy, and we can't do that." So, we got more debt and companies plowing money into stock buybacks and executive bonuses. That means we've got companies that are loaded to the gills with debt, some of which was used to do those things just noted. There's also some companies that are stressed even with interest rates at all-time lows and incredibly vulnerable to any kind of shock that takes us out of "everything is perfect, everything is fine."
> 
> It's exactly what Japan did in the 90s that we told them repeatedly, "don't do this - you're going to drag this out longer and not fix anything." We've now joined them in that boat. Japan has tried many of the things you've noted to reinflate its bubble; it's still never worked, and it's never going to.




From the movie margin call.

"They never lose. They don't care if everyone else does."


----------



## Ted Hoffman

halincandenza said:


> some of these oil stocks have been completely rocked - vermillion energy a month ago was over $40. Suncor is at 15 bucks .
> 
> Trying to decide whether or not to make a small play in vermillion. If oil shoots back up to 30 bucks you have to think vermillion could easily double .



Oil companies will not change valuation in direct relation to oil prices. $30 oil probably still isn't making money. If Vermillion is leveraged up, it could get sunk depending on how long pumping oil is a money-loser. If a bailout is coming, that might be the time to jump in but I wouldn't count on it being a put on everything this time around.


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Everything was a giant bubble


----------



## lukester

Fixed to Ruin said:


> WTI Oil - 22.94$
> 
> edit - Looking at a historical chart we are getting close to testing lows of 18$ (Dec. 2001) and ~12$ (Jan 1999).
> 
> Oil spiked in 2008 at around 140$.




Finally we will get under $1 a litre gas in Vancouver! Its been like 10 years.


----------



## Thucydides

Mud the ACAS said:


> Oil companies will not change valuation in direct relation to oil prices. $30 oil probably still isn't making money. If Vermillion is leveraged up, it could get sunk depending on how long pumping oil is a money-loser. If a bailout is coming, that might be the time to jump in but I wouldn't count on it being a put on everything this time around.




I would just be gambling on a dead cat bounce. I don’t think any Canadian oil producers are making money @ 30 dollar oil. I think 45-50 is the break even for a lot of them . Probably higher.

I’m in Nova Scotia - gas prices here are 79 cents a litre. At some gas stations if you use cash or debit it’s 75 cents . 
I expect gas prices in the 60s here on Friday .


----------



## Thucydides

Market is getting wrecked today . Anyone jump in on anything or are you still on the sidelines ?


----------



## Recipe Unlimited

halincandenza said:


> Market is getting wrecked today . Anyone jump in on anything or are you still on the sidelines ?



I'm liking BMO. I'm thinking about doing a Dollar Cost Average of them.


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

halincandenza said:


> Market is getting wrecked today . Anyone jump in on anything or are you still on the sidelines ?



Sitting on my hands


----------



## lukester

halincandenza said:


> I would just be gambling on a dead cat bounce. I don’t think any Canadian oil producers are making money @ 30 dollar oil. I think 45-50 is the break even for a lot of them . Probably higher.
> 
> I’m in Nova Scotia - gas prices here are 79 cents a litre. At some gas stations if you use cash or debit it’s 75 cents .
> I expect gas prices in the 60s here on Friday .




Dont forget that in certain provinces 30 to 40% of the gas price is taxes.


----------



## Thucydides

Recipe Unlimited said:


> I'm liking BMO. I'm thinking about doing a Dollar Cost Average of them.




have my eye on BMO, too. 

Some of the REIT’s I’m following are down almost 50% from their highs a month ago. 

crombie reit 10 bucks - was 16. 
True north real estate trust - was 8.18 now 4.90

vanguard index fund not moving that much . Was 62 now 46. It can’t seem to break that 45 threshold.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Recipe Unlimited said:


> I'm liking BMO. I'm thinking about doing a Dollar Cost Average of them.



Every time I hear someone talk about DCA, I want to put up a graph illustrating how it works both ways. Example: on DCA off the S&P 500, off the price when trading halted you are now flat on everything from March 27, 2014 to today. That's almost 6 years of going nowhere, where you would have been better off in just in a money market fund.

Also see BAC, which I mentioned earlier. Keep in mind, among others I'm looking at TXRH which has taken a cliff dive off its ATH and is trading where it was in August, 2014. I think it's a great company, it's not going bankrupt, it's just not going to have anyone showing up for several weeks because of what's going on. And yet, there's no way in hell I'd buy it at $26 even trying to DCA into it.



halincandenza said:


> Market is getting wrecked today . Anyone jump in on anything or are you still on the sidelines ?



I tried putting in an order short the market, figuring we'd get a bounce up and my order would get filled and then I'd ride a decline from there. Nope, kept falling and now we're stopped for 15 minutes.

Good timing, too. Can get a couple minutes head start on lunch.


----------



## Thucydides

Yeah I saw the market was halted again. This is insanity !

Was anyone watching in the 2008 crash? Was it anything like this ? With the almost daily halts ?


----------



## PromisedLand

folks need to watch this if you haven't already. Informative and with facts no speculation


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Dow -10%


----------



## PromisedLand

Who the F is buying these stocks?


----------



## lukester

PromisedLand said:


> Who the F is buying these stocks?




People on reddit, also some wealthy people who probably have inside knowledge as to what is going on behind the scenes.


----------



## lukester

Telus internet fell 50% in one day.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

lukester said:


> Telus internet fell 50% in one day.



That was a stock split; no decrease in market cap


----------



## lukester

Bruins4Lifer said:


> That was a stock split; no decrease in market cap




Do you know why that was done?


----------



## Ted Hoffman

halincandenza said:


> Yeah I saw the market was halted again. This is insanity !
> 
> Was anyone watching in the 2008 crash? Was it anything like this ? With the almost daily halts ?



Circuit breakers then were -10%, -20%, -30%. We never moved like that in any day, even with bans on short selling. But yeah, it was crazy back then because when the markets moved less than 2% either way we called it "nothing to talk about." The difference then was that the banking system really was f***ed from having gorged itself nearly to death on debt thinking real estate would just go up forever, and people really did have that _this could be the end of the world_ feeling.

Instead of solving that, ... well, see my posts above detailing this.



PromisedLand said:


> Who the F is buying these stocks?



Suckers. Actually, it's not quite like that, but this is a great time to illustrate that any time you see talking heads crow about "all the cash on the sidelines, waiting to get into the market" you should realize they're spouting pure bullshit.

In every trade of a stock (ignoring stock issuance, which still technically applies), the buyer gives up cash for the asset and the seller gives up the asset for cash. There is no new cash created; the amount of cash sitting out of the market remains the same. The only thing in play is the desire to hold stock instead of cash; that's what helps drive prices.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

All the gains on the Dow from January 20, 2017 to now are gone. We're about 12 points from that on the S&P.


----------



## Advanced stats

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> Sitting on my hands



Holding now, tempted to get on some air travel stocks or oil, both of which are way way down.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Oil sitting just above 20$ mark. 

Oil falls 24% in 3rd worst day on record, sinks to more than 18-year low


----------



## Thucydides

20.40 a barrel! Crazy! 
Edit - 20.11


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> 20.40 a barrel! Crazy!
> Edit - 20.11




Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55


----------



## Thucydides

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55




Are you an oil guy ?


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

lukester said:


> Do you know why that was done?



Not sure, but it was announced a month ago


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55



Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today. 

I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bruins4Lifer said:


> Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today.
> 
> I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.




Makes sense. The ticker i was looking at only updates every 12 hrs. Who knows where the floor is on that type of Crude.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Are you an oil guy ?




Sorta...


----------



## Hockey Outsider

PromisedLand said:


> Who the F is buying these stocks?




I've used a considerable amount of cash to buy dividend-paying stocks over the past week. Everything is on sale! I haven't invested in anything new, but I'm continuing to increase my positions in companies that I already own. Specifically I'm looking at companies with a track record of maintaining or increasing dividends annually, sustainable dividend payouts (relative to net income and cash flow), and wide economic moats. I haven't invested in anything with direct exposure to oil.

When I look at a stock like, say, CIBC - I ask, has the long-term value of the business truly declined 35% over the past month? It's value has clearly dropped (as we're almost certainly entering a recession - and loan loss provisions will surely increase), but a drop anywhere near that magnitude strikes me as irrational, bordering on paranoid. (Full disclosure - I own this stock).

Will the dividend be cut (for CIBC, or comparable businesses)? I'm not sure. Most of these business survived the 2008 recession without cutting their dividends. I also screen stocks for the sustainability of dividend payouts - many of these are quite conservative and have a lot of room before they'd be compelled to do so.

The stock market will rebound. It might take a year or two, but I'm not planning on retiring for at least 10 years (possibly quite a bit longer than that). I'll continue to get paid 5+% dividend yield while I wait.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Bruins4Lifer said:


> Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today.
> 
> I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.



I really, really wish I had saved numerous comments from years ago where people breathlessly told me that Canadian oil would_ *never*_ fall below like $80, and that Canada's natural resources - especially the oil sands - were so vast and so valuable that the Canadian loonie would trade at more like $1.30US = $1CN and that it would _*never*_ go back to $1.30CN = $1US.

I mocked them then because it was funny. It's "pee myself uncontrollably" funny now.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Mud the ACAS said:


> I really, really wish I had saved numerous comments from years ago where people breathlessly told me that Canadian oil would_ *never*_ fall below like $80, and that Canada's natural resources - especially the oil sands - were so vast and so valuable that the Canadian loonie would trade at more like $1.30US = $1CN and that it would _*never*_ go back to $1.30CN = $1US.
> 
> I mocked them then because it was funny. It's "pee myself uncontrollably" funny now.



What's your call now? Is WCS staying under $10 forever? What will it be in 2 years?


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Bruins4Lifer said:


> What's your call now? Is WCS staying under $10 forever? What will it be in 2 years?



If it's under $10 in 2 years, we all won't be worried about when hockey or any other sport starts back up. Hell, we might not have this forum.


----------



## Ainec

Is anyone else extremely bullish on gold and bitcoin?

wonder how long a deflationary spiral will last


----------



## VanillaCoke

Bitcoin still exists?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Thucydides

VanillaCoke said:


> Bitcoin still exists?




Trading at over 8,000 per coin.


----------



## BahlDeep

Lots of players covered/covering their shorts...and lots of options expiring tomorrow... Take it for what it is


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

God bless goodfood


----------



## Thucydides

I took a bite of the Vanguard Index Fund this morning - VUN.to. Just an entry point. Going to buy all the way down from here on out .


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> I took a bite of the Vanguard Index Fund this morning - VUN.to. Just an entry point. Going to buy all the way down from here on out .




Why didn't you buy VOO instead?


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Why didn't you buy VOO instead?




never heard of it. Does it track the entire US market ? That’s why I bought the VUN.to index fund.


----------



## VanillaCoke

BahlDeep said:


> Lots of players covered/covering their shorts...and lots of options expiring tomorrow... Take it for what it is



Feel free to elaborate 

Im looking at RBC in the next week if it continues to drop, which seems likely.


----------



## JMCx4

Mud the ACAS said:


> If it's under $10 in 2 years, we all won't be worried about when hockey or any other sport starts back up. *Hell, we might not have this forum.*



Take my money, take my car, take my house, but PLEASE Dear Lord, don't take The Loungers away!


----------



## stopclickbait

Greasy stuff


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

Advanced stats said:


> Holding now, tempted to get on some air travel stocks or oil, both of which are way way down.



Air travel? Brave move.


----------



## SmoggyTwinkles

stopclickbait said:


> Greasy stuff





$1.2 to $3.1 is a bit of a range though no?


----------



## Ainec

she shoulda just bought puts on spy


----------



## Thucydides

I think we will see a little run today.


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

VanillaCoke said:


> Bitcoin still exists?



It's sole reason for existence is to make video cards cost $800 more than they should thanks to the miners


----------



## LarryFisherman

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> It's sole reason for existence is to make video cards cost $800 more than they should thanks to the miners




i know this is like a funny lol bro comment, but i just have to be "that guy" and point out that this is just flat out untrue on every single level.


----------



## VanillaCoke

CrazyMonkey1208 said:


> It's sole reason for existence is to make video cards cost $800 more than they should thanks to the miners



Ngl I don't even know what that means, but I also don't know many actual uses for it. As well as the number of stories I hear about bitcoin wallets getting hacked. I'll pass but good luck for those who know more than I.


----------



## BahlDeep

VanillaCoke said:


> Feel free to elaborate
> 
> Im looking at RBC in the next week if it continues to drop, which seems likely.




Market should rip upwards today


----------



## VanillaCoke

BahlDeep said:


> Market should rip upwards today



I think so too, but not for long. As the cases increase in the usa it'll go back down... 

Not that I'm anywhere close to being knowledgeable about the stock market. Just seems likely


----------



## Ted Hoffman

stopclickbait said:


> Greasy stuff




I'm sure it's what the hard-working people of Georgia want.



SmoggyTwinkles said:


> $1.2 to $3.1 is a bit of a range though no?



What's a couple million dollars between friends making ~$50,000 a year or less?

Also being linked to this: Burr (R-NC - who should have his own thread elsewhere for having a briefing on the seriousness of this weeks prior and telling a small group how bad this could get, and who should burn in hell for not communicating that out to the American public), Johnson (R-WI, also should burn in hell *and* who wanted to kick-start a Senate investigation into Burisma and Hunter Biden making money improperly), Inhofe (R-OK ... it's Oklahoma, so it goes without saying).


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

After reading this thread, i'm fairly certain there is another massive leg down coming in the near future.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> Market should rip upwards today



I bet it short today in play money, so you're probably right. I still feel like there's a total kick in the nuts coming, though. Yesterday should have been the day for a relief rally, and we were barely up after what you might argue was the last of exhaustion selling and a 78-point drop in the S&P followed by a 147-point rip higher.

I don't know that there's a total put under the market right now, but I think the Fed is trying desperately to put one in. Something about it going into the market and starting to buy anything not an equity. (Again, yet. I fully expect it will hit that point sooner than people think.) Treasury yields have screamed up, so that makes me think there's upside in the stock market but it could also simply be that the Fed has lost all control of the yield curve. Right now, you'd think everyone would be fleeing to safety and yields would be crammed near zero. Instead, we're seeing a "normal" looking curve even if it still means a 10-year around 1% and a 30-year around 1.6%.

A calmer day would be better for everyone's nerves, but who knows what kind of news drops this weekend. And yes, things can still get worse.


----------



## Thucydides

Bought another chunk of vanguard today. Market is down a bit. I expect another kick in the junk coming in the next two weeks once this spirals further out of control. 
We will get through it though - we always do


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> I bet it short today in play money, so you're probably right. I still feel like there's a total kick in the nuts coming, though. Yesterday should have been the day for a relief rally, and we were barely up after what you might argue was the last of exhaustion selling and a 78-point drop in the S&P followed by a 147-point rip higher.
> 
> I don't know that there's a total put under the market right now, but I think the Fed is trying desperately to put one in. Something about it going into the market and starting to buy anything not an equity. (Again, yet. I fully expect it will hit that point sooner than people think.) Treasury yields have screamed up, so that makes me think there's upside in the stock market but it could also simply be that the Fed has lost all control of the yield curve. Right now, you'd think everyone would be fleeing to safety and yields would be crammed near zero. Instead, we're seeing a "normal" looking curve even if it still means a 10-year around 1% and a 30-year around 1.6%.
> 
> A calmer day would be better for everyone's nerves, but who knows what kind of news drops this weekend. And yes, things can still get worse.




What put downward pressure late yesterday was the redemptions from mutual funds...


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

But hey. Lets buy the dip right?


----------



## Ted Hoffman

I am starting to seriously believe there's a put in place at Dow 20,000. And no, it makes absolutely no sense other than from a psychological view, but it's really interesting how we get under that mark and you can see action shift to fight like hell to hold it.

So, is that really true? What has to happen to break that? And what happens if that breaks?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Google Trends searches for "How to buy stocks"


----------



## Thucydides

Mud the ACAS said:


> I am starting to seriously believe there's a put in place at Dow 20,000. And no, it makes absolutely no sense other than from a psychological view, but it's really interesting how we get under that mark and you can see action shift to fight like hell to hold it.
> 
> So, is that really true? What has to happen to break that? And what happens if that breaks?




I agree . It’s not breaking like it should. When it does it will probably be painful. 

on a brighter note I filled up my car today for $29 cad from almost empty .


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Something appears broken. Oil is under $20, the 10-year is back under 1%, the 30-year sailed under 1.5% before recovering back to 1.6%. Small cap stocks are barely unchanged. (They're that beaten down?) The market is trying to drop and is making a final stand at 19,500 / 2,340; we break that and all hell may break loose.


----------



## Ainec

my peloton shorts are cashing in

not so much my puts


anyone else still shorting and buying puts?


----------



## Mescaleroman

Anyone get any joy with JOY ( Journey Energy ) on the TSX last night? Closed at .06 yesterday , opened at .36 today and went to .46 before closing at .40. 
Wish I could say I did.


----------



## Ainec

you have people hoping for green days just so they can purchase cheaper short positions 

crazy times


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

That sounds bad.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

First hedge fund to blow up.

Clearing firm Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements at CME: Sources


----------



## JMCx4

halincandenza said:


> ... on a brighter note I filled up my car today for $29 cad from almost empty .



Not much of a bargain if you ain't got nowhere to go.


----------



## Thucydides

JMCx4 said:


> Not much of a bargain if you ain't got nowhere to go.




I’m still working - essential service.


----------



## Ainec

prayers to ark invest


----------



## JMCx4

halincandenza said:


> I’m still working - essential service.



Stay essential. Folks need you.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Fixed to Ruin said:


> That sounds bad.




The question is how this gets smoothed, because all that gets reported is what's seasonally adjusted. (At one point, I toyed around with figuring out how the BLS's smoothing process exactly works, but then I moved on to cap stuff for a while and sat this to the side.) And, there's a question of how many of these are "my employer is temporarily shut down, I'm filing unemployment but I expect to go back to work with the same employer at some point" (where Mrs. Mud is, though she'll get paid for a couple weeks yet) and how many of these are "my job is gone, I need to find a new one."



Mescaleroman said:


> Anyone get any joy with JOY ( Journey Energy ) on the TSX last night? Closed at .06 yesterday , opened at .36 today and went to .46 before closing at .40.
> Wish I could say I did.



I'm all for risk, but going the penny-stock route is exceptionally risky.


----------



## John Price

scared money don't make no money


----------



## Miguel Cairo

Roman Fell said:


> scared money don't make no money




Yeah, I want you to drop all the cellular joints. All of them. Nokia, Motorola.


----------



## 48g90a138pts

Fixed to Ruin said:


> First hedge fund to blow up.
> 
> Clearing firm Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements at CME: Sources



WTF! They shorted the VIX?

bye bye morons 
Edit:
Or they could have taken a long position and got wrecked the last couple of days. They took on way way too much risk. Get rich quick scheme blew up in their faces.


----------



## PatrikBerglund

Do you think it's safe to buy REITs for cheap right now?


----------



## Thucydides

PatrikBerglund said:


> Do you think it's safe to buy REITs for cheap right now?




Some of the REIT’s I’ve been following have halved in price. I’ve bought a little in both I’ve been following . I think they will go lower yet , but no one knows where or when the bottom is .


----------



## The Crypto Guy

Markets going to really crash this week with the unemployment number coming. Might be a great time for me to get back into stocks. Thinking Exxon and Jetblue


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Thucydides

Predictions for tomorrow ? Will we finally break and free fall to the bottom to which at this time the depths look limitless?


----------



## CrazyMonkey1208

I never thought The Walking Dead was a premonition for our future. I feel like I woke up in some parallel universe nightmare


----------



## The Crypto Guy

halincandenza said:


> Predictions for tomorrow ? Will we finally break and free fall to the bottom to which at this time the depths look limitless?



Lol no. It will be hitting new lows tomorrow.


----------



## Ainec

New lows.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

I believe the kids call it REKT.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Thucydides

Yes markets will be a bloodbath tomorrow. Could be the worst day yet.


----------



## LarryFisherman

i set aside about $5000 to invest in my IRA to offset some taxes. I'll probably wait until around the 10th of april to contribute + file, just to get the most eventual bang for my buck. I suppose over 30+ years it makes literally no difference, but I have a feeling this week is going to be a shitshow and we might just eek out a little bit of value.

Then hopefully I can afford some stuff next month when I have some money again. Will we be under 10k as fast as we went from 30k -> 20k?


----------



## The Crypto Guy

Yikes, i called the bloodbath tomorrow. Get your money in boys if you want to make some money down the road!


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Fixed to Ruin said:


>




I think we should distinguish between "unemployed and out of a job and looking for one" and "unemployed, but temporary and when things settle down will be back to the last employer."

On the first? We're not going near 30%. On the latter? Much higher chance to get there; I don't know if we'll get to 30% or not - admittedly, because I have a poor feel for it because my job still exists even as WFH and virtually every other job at my employer still exists for the same reason. I'm curious what others think. Might be good for a poll here and/or elsewhere.



LarryFisherman said:


> Then hopefully I can afford some stuff next month when I have some money again. Will we be under 10k as fast as we went from 30k -> 20k?



Let's start with "do I think we're going to Dow 10,000?" Back-of-the-envelope, no.

Looking at closing figures as the basis, we topped out at 29,551 on February 12. We first closed back under 20K on March 18 (19,899), we officially dropped 10K points on Friday (19,174). I struggle to see it going much under 12,000 merely because of the composition of the Dow. (Which is why I use the S&P, among other reasons.) But, that's still -40% from here and would mean almost -60% off the top. That would put the S&P somewhere around 1,355. (I have its downside closer to 1,250, or nearly half off from here.) So short answer - no, we probably don't drop to 10K in the next ~5 weeks.

Now, that assumes somewhere in this administration someone gets their shit together and we start getting help out to the health care system. Right now, I have low confidence in that - and, I have high confidence in people in this administration front-running anything that does happen grease their own palms (even more than they have already). The longer that goes, the more likely we touch 10K - and if we go there, you have to think Americans will full-panic and bail out of the market, having pissed away the last 11 years of gains and most likely having exactly nothing to show for ~22 years of investing in the market.

You'll also have to balance that with stupid ideas like "let's mint a pair of $1 trillion coins to pay for all of this." [Hell, why stop at $1 trillion? Make it $5 trillion. Make it $10 trillion. f***, make it 334 million $1 trillion coins. What could go wrong?] We start printing money, it likely puts a floor on the market. The Fed starts buying equities, it *really* puts a floor in. (Yes, that's going to happen. No, it's not going to solve anything.) But at that point, your best investment isn't going to be equities. It will be hard metals.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> I think we should distinguish between "unemployed and out of a job and looking for one" and "unemployed, but temporary and when things settle down will be back to the last employer."
> 
> On the first? We're not going near 30%. On the latter? Much higher chance to get there; I don't know if we'll get to 30% or not - admittedly, because I have a poor feel for it because my job still exists even as WFH and virtually every other job at my employer still exists for the same reason. I'm curious what others think. Might be good for a poll here and/or elsewhere.
> 
> 
> Let's start with "do I think we're going to Dow 10,000?" Back-of-the-envelope, no.
> 
> Looking at closing figures as the basis, we topped out at 29,551 on February 12. We first closed back under 20K on March 18 (19,899), we officially dropped 10K points on Friday (19,174). I struggle to see it going much under 12,000 merely because of the composition of the Dow. (Which is why I use the S&P, among other reasons.) But, that's still -40% from here and would mean almost -60% off the top. That would put the S&P somewhere around 1,355. (I have its downside closer to 1,250, or nearly half off from here.) So short answer - no, we probably don't drop to 10K in the next ~5 weeks.
> 
> Now, that assumes somewhere in this administration someone gets their shit together and we start getting help out to the health care system. Right now, I have low confidence in that - and, I have high confidence in people in this administration front-running anything that does happen grease their own palms (even more than they have already). The longer that goes, the more likely we touch 10K - and if we go there, you have to think Americans will full-panic and bail out of the market, having pissed away the last 11 years of gains and most likely having exactly nothing to show for ~22 years of investing in the market.
> 
> You'll also have to balance that with stupid ideas like "let's mint a pair of $1 trillion coins to pay for all of this." [Hell, why stop at $1 trillion? Make it $5 trillion. Make it $10 trillion. f***, make it 334 million $1 trillion coins. What could go wrong?] We start printing money, it likely puts a floor on the market. The Fed starts buying equities, it *really* puts a floor in. (Yes, that's going to happen. No, it's not going to solve anything.) But at that point, your best investment isn't going to be equities. It will be hard metals.




Fun fact. Physical Hard metals are back ordered for 3 to 4 months right now.


----------



## Ainec

w-what about paper metals 

should I put more $ in that or is that also fancy spreadsheets


----------



## lukester

Its interesting. A lot of the people who are saying buy are the same people that said that a 10% drop was all that there was going to be. Then they said buy at the 15%, then 20%... and that we were most likely at bottom.

Yet here I am thinking we havent seen a situation where this many variables are at play at the same time. Heck even when cities are being shelled in wartime people are still walking around in public every day and going to work knowing that they could die. So we are living in unknown times.


----------



## HSF

lukester said:


> Its interesting. A lot of the people who are saying buy are the same people that said that a 10% drop was all that there was going to be. Then they said buy at the 15%, then 20%... and that we were most likely at bottom.
> 
> Yet here I am thinking we havent seen a situation where this many variables are at play at the same time. Heck even when cities are being shelled in wartime people are still walking around in public every day and going to work knowing that they could die. So we are living in unknown times.



Ya and if this continues it means more layoffs and more lockdowns which means the stocks will further dive


----------



## Ted Hoffman

QE forever, folks - and they are *never, ever* shrinking the balance sheet.

And at some point, this *is* going to blow up in their face.


----------



## Ainec

Mud the ACAS said:


> QE forever, folks - and they are *never, ever* shrinking the balance sheet.
> 
> And at some point, this *is* going to blow up in their face.




Already is


General public will just blame the pandemic for everything


----------



## lukester

Gold is up 2.5% so far. Lets see where it ends up.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Ainec said:


> Already is
> 
> 
> General public will just blame the pandemic for everything



The more closely held (fewer investors) an asset is, the more vulnerable it is to price shocks because of small trades. This is where the Fed is going. It thinks it's going to single-handedly prop up the stock market by buying everything in sight.

I'll put my SB cash down on a triple-limit stop within 30 days, even if the Fed is buying equities.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> QE forever, folks - and they are *never, ever* shrinking the balance sheet.
> 
> And at some point, this *is* going to blow up in their face.




Hello inflation.


----------



## Ainec

questrade crashed lol

I'm also using IB, any other good brokers?


----------



## lukester

Ainec said:


> questrade crashed lol
> 
> I'm also using IB, any other good brokers?



Reddit guys are giving them harsh language. There are around 10 threads over there talking about it.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

We're now under where we were trading on the S&P when Trump took office. If you're in the "buy-and-hold" crowd, you've now got a total return of 0.00% for 7-8 years depending on which measure you want to use. Dollar-cost averaging is flat to about mid-January 2013; average S&P close is flat back to March, 2012.

For those wondering, if (when) the S&P drops to 1911 it will have wiped out aggregate gains for the buy-and-hold crowd going back to the March 2009 lows. If (when?) it drops to 1454, it will have wiped out aggregate gains going back to the beginning of 1995. Yes, that would be *25 years* of zero average annual return.


----------



## Ainec

Gold and bitcoin.


----------



## Ainec

meme of the year


----------



## The Real JT

Fixed to Ruin said:


>




Apparently, there's still hope for an improvement in overall global health.


----------



## Thucydides

Ainec said:


> meme of the year




I needed a good laugh , thank you. This is great .


----------



## JetsWillFly4Ever

So many people are trying to get into buying stocks right now thinking it's easy money. This crash is far from over and though it will come back at some point it will likely not be anytime soon so you better be able to lose money for a significant portion of time (not specific to people in this thread just people in general). I would be very careful investing now unless you can stomach a loss and wait it out.


----------



## Thucydides

JetsWillFly4Ever said:


> So many people are trying to get into buying stocks right now thinking it's easy money. This crash is far from over and though it will come back at some point it will likely not be anytime soon so you better be able to lose money for a significant portion of time (not specific to people in this thread just people in general). I would be very careful investing now unless you can stomach a loss and wait it out.




no such thing as easy money in the market . And you’re right - you need to be able to wait it out . But if you don’t mind bathing in the red , swimming in the red then in the long run, you’re going to do really well once all this is over . Think long term! Buy when there’s blood in the streets.


----------



## valet

made 2k on SPY puts today boys


----------



## valet

Ainec said:


> my peloton shorts are cashing in
> 
> not so much my puts
> 
> 
> anyone else still shorting and buying puts?



i cashed out anything with a strike earlier than may this morning after open. i think we're gonna go sideways for the next bit and iv is gonna crush people that held shorter positions. maybe even get a bull trap-esque pump into april once this stimulus bill gets done in the senate. i might even short call spy (its like $1 contracts now) once i get a better feel for the momentum. i'm willing to bet there are lots of greedy little pigs still buying puts that are gonna take losses in the coming weeks. but cash is king at this moment in time, as far as i'm concerned


----------



## Ainec

valet said:


> sold 3x SPY 200p 4/17 today at open. other than that all cash rn, but thinking about dipping my toes in and holding long on FANG, USO, CCL, maybe XOM
> 
> my instincts say we're gonna get a bull trap pump, so prolly some assorted calls at EOW if it makes sense, then puts when IV settles just in time for us to fall off a cliff again




I like USO as well

Some of these like CCL are probably getting bailed out. Does anyone have any articles on what happens to stock prices before and after bailouts? Also any reason why you like CCL over airlines


----------



## Ainec

I'm hesitant to touch calls. I can see it pump because nothing goes straight down.. but I don't think we're at the bottom soooo I'll feel extra bad if I lose money on calls


----------



## valet

Ainec said:


> I like USO as well
> 
> Some of these like CCL are probably getting bailed out. Does anyone have any articles on what happens to stock prices before and after bailouts? Also any reason why you like CCL over airlines



CCL might survive even without a bailout. Big cash reserves and tons of collateral (their ships) to lever for cash.

BA is for sure getting bailed out. They are a defense contracting machine and basically married to the government. I like BA, but I still think there's some room for a further drop in the coming weeks

Airlines, meh. Too risky. Some will get bailouts, others won't. I don't have time for that


----------



## Ainec

My weak and lazy DD:

Airlines are essential. Might be less tourism but I am sure tourist destinations and airlines will create incentives to balance that.

Cruises can't do the same and this might break people's spending psyche


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Looks like were going to have a face ripping rally tomorrow


----------



## 48g90a138pts

The volatility is incredible


----------



## Thucydides

Money printer go BRRR


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Gold up 7%.


----------



## BahlDeep

Vix is at 42... we're very very close to the bottom, if not already reached it.


----------



## ZDH

Finally in the market after waiting forever to get the account opened up. Looking to move most of my money into airlines and cruise lines but I think they will sink even further in the next month so I'm going to hold off for now. Did just buy some LNC stock though, I think that one is really solid value right now.


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Vix is at 42... we're very very close to the bottom, if not already reached it.




you think? I think we haven’t reached peak virus yet . I think we still have further down to go.


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> you think? I think we haven’t reached peak virus yet . I think we still have further down to go.




Everyone and their mother knows we haven't reached peak virus yet here. Everyone knows it is coming eventually. Market just needs to see progress, which they are seeing in other countries...even in Italy.

I think POTUS is going to get the ball rolling, that's why I'm very bullish on the US


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> Everyone and their mother knows we haven't reached peak virus yet here. Everyone knows it is coming eventually. Market just needs to see progress, which they are seeing in other countries...even in Italy.
> 
> I think POTUS is going to get the ball rolling, that's why I'm very bullish on the US



I think your optimism is wildly misplaced. I also will not be surprised if when Congress passes the bailout, like how the markets went into the toilet after TARP was finally passed we go at least two circuit-breakers down as the news gets sold.

In fact, I'm debating whether to short the f*** out of the market (again) after we opened up 6.7% and are sitting up about 5.5% right now - and that's considering the POTUS is likely to order things to reopen and make the situation 10x worse that it would be if we just stayed the course and plowed through this.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> I think your optimism is wildly misplaced. I also will not be surprised if when Congress passes the bailout, like how the markets went into the toilet after TARP was finally passed we go at least two circuit-breakers down as the news gets sold.
> 
> In fact, I'm debating whether to short the f*** out of the market (again) after we opened up 6.7% and are sitting up about 5.5% right now - and that's considering the POTUS is likely to order things to reopen and make the situation 10x worse that it would be if we just stayed the course and plowed through this.




I mean it's laughable at how much everyone is trying to time at when they should jump back in the market. I'm not looking to make a quick buck here, if you have a long time horizon and haven't bought in yet....you are an idiot.

Markets have priced most of their concerns to this crisis.. correlations across asset classes went to 1, this is an indicator that we are close to or reached the bottom. I am not saying that the market won't go through vol.periods, but the worst is most probably behind us.


----------



## Ainec

BahlDeep said:


> I mean it's laughable at how much everyone is trying to time at when they should jump back in the market. I'm not looking to make a quick buck here, if you have a long time horizon and haven't bought in yet....you are an idiot.
> 
> Markets have priced most of their concerns to this crisis.. correlations across asset classes went to 1, this is an indicator that we are close to or reached the bottom. I am not saying that the market won't go through vol.periods, but the worst is most probably behind us.




I think stocks will go up because of the money printing and the fed backing it. But I think it's easier to maintain or increase purchasing power with gold and bitcoin


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> I mean it's laughable at how much everyone is trying to time at when they should jump back in the market. I'm not looking to make a quick buck here, if you have a long time horizon and haven't bought in yet....you are an idiot.








Or, more pointedly,






I'm not saying we're going down almost 90% off the high - I think 60% is well within the cards - but I am saying that buying massively back into the market when it's ~33% off the 3rd bubble-induced high in 20 years merely because "look at the long-term, stocks haven't been this cheap in years" is a great way to end up going nowhere for years to come.

Finally, every time I hear "the market has priced in everything, the worst is behind us" I'm reminded of the same comments from 2007-2008 and through most of the run-up the last few years. Bad news is seemingly always already factored into the market. Good news is *never* factored in, and it leads to "bad news? Buy! Wait, it's really good news? Really buy!" mentality that causes the market to rocket up to obscene valuations and people to exclaim _this time is different, recessions are a thing of the past, you have to be in stocks, they'll never go down again!_


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> Or, more pointedly,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not saying we're going down almost 90% off the high - I think 60% is well within the cards - but I am saying that buying massively back into the market when it's ~33% off the 3rd bubble-induced high in 20 years merely because "look at the long-term, stocks haven't been this cheap in years" is a great way to end up going nowhere for years to come.




I know this, however if you systematically put money to work continuously and put more money to work in period of shocks, you should end up on the positive side of things. Don't get caught trying to time the market.



Why Mistiming The Market Can Be Disastrous - The Simple Dollar

Good luck out there!


----------



## HSF

I would wait it out longer before investing


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> I know this, however if you systematically put money to work continuously and put more money to work in period of shocks, you should end up on the positive side of things. Don't get caught trying to time the market.
> 
> View attachment 338861
> 
> Why Mistiming The Market Can Be Disastrous - The Simple Dollar
> 
> Good luck out there!



1. This jumps off one of the lower points the Dow was at in the 1978-1982 range, when it was already about 65% off the 1965 high and had dropped below the 1974 low. Of course it's going to look really good from there. Spoiler: we're not at the same point in time in 2020. Jump off March, 2000 and see how those gains look compared to having sat in Treasuries or even a money market account.

2. Even with today's massive rally, everyone who's "systematically put money to work continuously" (read: dollar-cost averaging) in the market is still flat for the last 5 1/2 years. Not "flat after accounting for inflation," I mean "your total return over that period is 0.00%." As of yesterday's close, you were flat for nearly *7 years*. If (when) we hit 2100, you'll be flat for *8 *years. 2000? 8 1/2 years. 1250 (about where I expect we'll land)? *23 years* of buy-and-hold gains will be wiped out. 25 points below that? It'll wipe out everything back to 1995. Inflation-adjusted? It's even worse.

Short-term timing? I agree, 99.99% of people shouldn't do that. Long-term "set it and forget it" a la Ron Pompeil, though? That's just as dumb, IMO. Gains are paper only until you sell, and way too many people won't do that because they fear losing more gains. Buy-and-hold is great as long as stocks go up forever. When they don't, buy-and-hold quickly turns into losses because your cost basis has increased over time. Never be afraid to take gains, don't just put blind faith in "everything will always go back up" because like irrational behavior on the way up, the market can stay irrational longer on the way down than you want to believe is possible.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> Or, more pointedly,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not saying we're going down almost 90% off the high - I think 60% is well within the cards - but I am saying that buying massively back into the market when it's ~33% off the 3rd bubble-induced high in 20 years merely because "look at the long-term, stocks haven't been this cheap in years" is a great way to end up going nowhere for years to come.
> 
> Finally, every time I hear "the market has priced in everything, the worst is behind us" I'm reminded of the same comments from 2007-2008 and through most of the run-up the last few years. Bad news is seemingly always already factored into the market. Good news is *never* factored in, and it leads to "bad news? Buy! Wait, it's really good news? Really buy!" mentality that causes the market to rocket up to obscene valuations and people to exclaim _this time is different, recessions are a thing of the past, you have to be in stocks, they'll never go down again!_




To take the most recent example of this...

Bitcoin was at almost 20,000$ at the end of 2017. When it finally rolled over it crashed into 8,000$ to 10,000$ range in roughly 90 days. Bitcoin had a ~50% decline in early February of 2018. People piled in thinking they were getting the bargain of a lifetime and the price got pushed up ~30% to 12,000$ by the end of February of 2018. Then the next phase of the bust happened and the price fell continuously to the 3000$ range by December of 2018 (1 year later). The crash from the all time highs of ~19,300$ to the new lows of ~3100$ was a 84% decline. If you bought at the 8000$ mark in early February of 2018 thinking you were getting a steal of a deal because "Bitcoin was on sale" you watched your investment decline by another 60% by the end of the year. As of today (End of march 2020) bitcoin is trading at 6500$ still not at the first low of 8000$ from 2018. Therefore, you still haven't recouped your original investment. On top of that inflation eroded your purchasing power of the dollars you invested back in 2018. This isn't a knock on crytpos but more of an observation of market psychology. We are seeing the same play out in the stock markets now.

In my view what we are seeing now is the first bottom and we'll probably see a decent run up from here. However, the virus is creating untold damage to the economy. The whole world is staying at home and saving money like crazy because many aren't earning an income right now and are struggling to keep the lights on and food on the table. Publicly traded companies will soon cut their guidance and dividends as their sales and revenue collapse. Soon we will find out what companies are strong financially will be able to survive the downturn and what companies will fall into bankruptcy (e.g. Enron in 2001, Bear Stearns in 2008, or Bernie Madoff).


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> 1. This jumps off one of the lower points the Dow was at in the 1978-1982 range, when it was already about 65% off the 1965 high and had dropped below the 1974 low. Of course it's going to look really good from there. Spoiler: we're not at the same point in time in 2020. Jump off March, 2000 and see how those gains look compared to having sat in Treasuries or even a money market account.
> 
> 2. Even with today's massive rally, everyone who's "systematically put money to work continuously" (read: dollar-cost averaging) in the market is still flat for the last 5 1/2 years. Not "flat after accounting for inflation," I mean "your total return over that period is 0.00%." As of yesterday's close, you were flat for nearly *7 years*. If (when) we hit 2100, you'll be flat for *8 *years. 2000? 8 1/2 years. 1250 (about where I expect we'll land)? *23 years* of buy-and-hold gains will be wiped out. 25 points below that? It'll wipe out everything back to 1995. Inflation-adjusted? It's even worse.
> 
> Short-term timing? I agree, 99.99% of people shouldn't do that. Long-term "set it and forget it" a la Ron Pompeil, though? That's just as dumb, IMO. Gains are paper only until you sell, and way too many people won't do that because they fear losing more gains. Buy-and-hold is great as long as stocks go up forever. When they don't, buy-and-hold quickly turns into losses because your cost basis has increased over time. Never be afraid to take gains, don't just put blind faith in "everything will always go back up" because like irrational behavior on the way up, the market can stay irrational longer on the way down than you want to believe is possible.




Ok the discussion is going sideways. You're cherry picking dates and numbers to make your argument and your assumption that the S&P will go to 1250, well good luck with that... anyways, I don't have time for this unfortunately, good luck investing.


----------



## BahlDeep

Fixed to Ruin said:


> To take the most recent example of this...
> 
> Bitcoin was at almost 20,000$ at the end of 2017. When it finally rolled over it crashed into 8,000$ to 10,000$ range in roughly 90 days. Bitcoin had a ~50% decline in early February of 2018. People piled in thinking they were getting the bargain of a lifetime and the price got pushed up ~30% to 12,000$ by the end of February of 2018. Then the next phase of the bust happened and the price fell continuously to the 3000$ range by December of 2018 (1 year later). The crash from the all time highs of ~19,300$ to the new lows of ~3100$ was a 84% decline. If you bought at the 8000$ mark in early February of 2018 thinking you were getting a steal of a deal because "Bitcoin was on sale" you watched your investment decline by another 60% by the end of the year. As of today (End of march 2020) bitcoin is trading at 6500$ still not at the first low of 8000$ from 2018. Therefore, you still haven't recouped your original investment. On top of that inflation eroded your purchasing power of the dollars you invested back in 2018. This isn't a knock on crytpos but more of an observation of market psychology. We are seeing the same play out in the stock markets now.
> 
> In my view what we are seeing now is the first bottom and we'll probably see a decent run up from here. However, the virus is creating untold damage to the economy. The whole world is staying at home and saving money like crazy because many aren't earning an income right now and are struggling to keep the lights on and food on the table. *Publicly traded companies will soon cut their guidance and dividends as their sales and revenue collapse.* Soon we will find out what companies are strong financially will be able to survive the downturn and what companies will fall into bankruptcy (e.g. Enron in 2001, Bear Stearns in 2008, or Bernie Madoff).




First of all, please do not compare Bitcoin to Equities... there's nothing driving the value of Bitcoin other then Demand.

Second, everyone expects most public companies to cut their guidance and have weaker sales and revenues. Cutting dividends, it depends which companies - Why do you think the market is down 30%?

People act like there will be no Fiscal Policies to help Corporations through this crisis. Banks are way stronger then they were in 2008, they will also help us go through this.


----------



## valet

BahlDeep said:


> Everyone and their mother knows we haven't reached peak virus yet here. Everyone knows it is coming eventually. Market just needs to see progress, which they are seeing in other countries...even in Italy.
> 
> I think POTUS is going to get the ball rolling, that's why I'm very bullish on the US



Go tell that to all the companies going through a massive liquidity crisis now, all the people that are going to lose their jobs, and the 20% of Americans that have already been laid off due to social distancing. This is a classic bull trap. We've still got some ways to go before we reach bottom...


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

BahlDeep said:


> First of all, please do not compare Bitcoin to Equities... there's nothing driving the value of Bitcoin other then Demand.
> 
> Second, Everyone expects most public companies to cut their guidance and have weaker sales and revenues. Cutting dividends, it depends which companies. Why do you think the market is down 30%?




My comment was on market psychology. I took bitcoin as it was the most recent example but I could have picked almost anything. Real Estate pre 2008. Gold and Silver from 2001 to 2013. Oil for the last 20 years. Nasdaq during the tech bubble.


----------



## Recipe Unlimited

Today's probably a good day for some cheap puts.


----------



## Thucydides

Dead cat bounce.

Throwing 2 trillion dollars at the problem isn’t going to help much, but it’ll cause a rally that might last a few days , long enough for Trump to get on Twitter proclaiming “Best market rally in the history of the world!” and then 2 days later free fall when USA makes Italy look like Micronesia in comparison to COVID cases. Trump will then blame the Obama administrations fiscal policies and distance himself from the horror that is happening in the USA.

We are not close to the bottom unless USA takes Chinese government measures and locks everything down airtight but that is not going to happen. The bottom could be months away yet.

We are seeing non essential businesses closed but over the weekend beaches in California were packed.

I’m guessing another rally tomorrow when this package gets passed here in the next couple hours.

The accelerating rate of COVID cases in the USA is more than a little concerning .


----------



## BahlDeep

I think there's a huge disconnect here in what is the goal of the stimulus package. The stimulus package isn't just an attempt at throwing money at the problem lol.

The stimulus package is here to bridge the economy from the crisis to eventually having it running at higher capacity. 

The accelerating rate of COVID cases coincides with the accelerating rate of tests. THIS HAS BEEN THE SAME TREND FOR EVERY COUNTRY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Dead cat bounce.
> 
> Throwing 2 trillion dollars at the problem isn’t going to help much, but it’ll cause a rally that might last a few days , long enough for *Trump to get on Twitter decrying “Best market rally in the history of the world!”* and then 2 days later free fall when USA makes Italy look like Micronesia in comparison to COVID cases. .




I'm begining to come to the opinion that Trump tweets are very solid economic indicators. His 401k tweet was pretty much at the top of the market.


----------



## Ainec

Tremendous day for precious metals. Average gain of+15%.

Helped offset my shorts


----------



## BahlDeep

Ainec said:


> Tremendous day for precious metals. Average gain of+15%.
> 
> Helped offset my shorts




Diversification


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> The accelerating rate of COVID cases coincides with the accelerating rate of tests. THIS HAS BEEN THE SAME TREND FOR EVERY COUNTRY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD.



True, but it's the rate of acceleration that's concerning. And what we still have no grasp on is the true incidence rate in areas, which means we can't direct resources to the areas that truly need it the most. All we have to go by is "tests actually run" which rely on "think I have symptoms" and "actually got tested" and "test was actually run." Right now, actions are merely reactionary, not proactive.

What's being reported is still lagging what's really going on, perhaps by as much as 5-7 days. If you're in an area that's got a cluster of people infected and half of them don't realize it, 5-7 days is a *long* time to be running around potentially spreading this virus, meaning that area is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off.


----------



## The Crypto Guy

halincandenza said:


> Dead cat bounce.
> 
> Throwing 2 trillion dollars at the problem isn’t going to help much, but it’ll cause a rally that might last a few days , long enough for Trump to get on Twitter proclaiming “Best market rally in the history of the world!” and then 2 days later free fall when USA makes Italy look like Micronesia in comparison to COVID cases. Trump will then blame the Obama administrations fiscal policies and distance himself from the horror that is happening in the USA.
> 
> We are not close to the bottom unless USA takes Chinese government measures and locks everything down airtight but that is not going to happen. The bottom could be months away yet.
> 
> We are seeing non essential businesses closed but over the weekend beaches in California were packed.
> 
> I’m guessing another rally tomorrow when this package gets passed here in the next couple hours.
> 
> The accelerating rate of COVID cases in the USA is more than a little concerning .



Good post if you had just left out all the trump garbage.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

$6 *t*rillion.  Buy metals, if you can still find them.


----------



## Thucydides

Where did you see 6 trillion?


----------



## Miguel Cairo

Not really sure how you’re supposed to discuss the stock market without touching on politics?



halincandenza said:


> Where did you see 6 trillion?


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Waffle House Index - Wikipedia


----------



## Ainec




----------



## Ainec

which company manufactures these, I want to invest


----------



## The Crypto Guy

2T not 6T


----------



## Thucydides

Unemployment numbers in USA 3.3 million. Shattering the record set in 1982 of 695,000. 
In 2008 it was 665,000.


----------



## Thucydides

Unemployment numbers in USA 3.3 million. Shattering the record set in 1982 of 695,000. 
In 2008 it was 665,000.


----------



## Thucydides

Unemployment numbers in USA 3.3 million. Shattering the record set in 1982 of 695,000. 
In 2008 it was 665,000.


----------



## The Crypto Guy

Get ready for the market to go back down. Get your monies ready


----------



## Thucydides

Recession sometime in the 2nd quarter .


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> Recession sometime in the 2nd quarter .




Might be in a full blown depression by then.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

The Crypto Guy said:


> 2T not 6T



With what the Fed is offering to do, it's really ∞.



halincandenza said:


> Recession sometime in the 2nd quarter .



We need a "Captain Obvious" emoji for this. (Not being snarky, just saying that this isn't a difficult call to make right now.) Also kind of "Captain Obvious" but I predict this is going to drag well into 3Q as well, and the markets haven't considered that at all. I think they're still thinking we'll be done by early to mid May. When it starts to dawn that this is going to go into June and July and beyond and the economic toll of this becomes apparent in lives lost, everyone thinking _this is a great time to buy, look at all the value out there!_ are going to be shocked at how much cheaper all those values suddenly got.

The market has been on hopium for a while. It's somewhere way out beyond "Al Pacino on coke in Scarface" at the moment.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> With what the Fed is offering to do, it's really ∞.
> 
> 
> We need a "Captain Obvious" emoji for this. (Not being snarky, just saying that this isn't a difficult call to make right now.) Also kind of "Captain Obvious" but I predict this is going to drag well into 3Q as well, and the markets haven't considered that at all. I think they're still thinking we'll be done by early to mid May. When it starts to dawn that this is going to go into June and July and beyond and the economic toll of this becomes apparent in lives lost, everyone thinking _this is a great time to buy, look at all the value out there!_ are going to be shocked at how much cheaper all those values suddenly got.
> 
> The market has been on hopium for a while. It's somewhere way out beyond "Al Pacino on coke in Scarface" at the moment.




I think we are seeing the beginning of a deflationary spiral. It will be a feedback loop that will feed upon itself until people feel confident in spending money again. With people getting laid off in mass quantities, i'm not optimistic that things will turn on a dime upwards once the virus passes.


----------



## BahlDeep

Where are the bulls?


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Fixed to Ruin said:


> I think we are seeing the beginning of a deflationary spiral. It will be a feedback loop that will feed upon itself until people feel confident in spending money again. With people getting laid off in mass quantities, i'm not optimistic that things will turn on a dime upwards once the virus passes.



I don't know about anyone else, but I'm using right now to retrench on bills and wipe out debt where I can while minimizing credit card usage to only what's really needed. If I don't *need* a service, I'm cutting it. Lawn care? Satellite radio (even at $60 for 12 months)? Dunkin coffee in the morning? (This one kills me.) Lunch out every Tuesday with the crew? All of it's getting scrapped.

The ~$3500 or so I'll get? Every dollar of it will go into the bank. My goal is to basically have a mortgage payment and what's left of my 0% car loan, with the money on hand to pay the latter off on a moment's notice. I suspect others are going to have that realization soon and they'll start doing the same thing, albeit painfully.

I really thought we'd see more of it after 2008. I think twice in 13 years is going to finally shock people into saying "f*** it, I'm not getting caught a 3rd time with my pants down."



BahlDeep said:


> Where are the bulls?



(looks at the market today) Out there buying in full force like this is all going to be over by mid-April or so and we'll be back to normal on July 4, oblivious to the line of growing supercells off in the distance.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> (looks at the market today) Out there buying in full force like this is all going to be over by mid-April or so and we'll be back to normal on July 4, oblivious to the line of growing supercells off in the distance.




You sound really sour lolll.. I was asking about where are the bulls in this thread.


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> You sound really sour lolll.. I was asking about where are the bulls in this thread.




Don’t think it’s time to be bullish quite yet , However looking at the market the last 3 days you’d think it was time. I want to see the next 3-4 weeks . 

I’m still buying vanguard index fund. Up nicely on it, too. From 43 to 49.


----------



## BahlDeep

halincandenza said:


> Don’t think it’s time to be bullish quite yet , However looking at the market the last 3 days you’d think it was time. I want to see the next 3-4 weeks .
> 
> I’m still buying vanguard index fund. Up nicely on it, too. From 43 to 49.




nice!


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> I don't know about anyone else, but I'm using right now to retrench on bills and wipe out debt where I can while minimizing credit card usage to only what's really needed. If I don't *need* a service, I'm cutting it. Lawn care? Satellite radio (even at $60 for 12 months)? Dunkin coffee in the morning? (This one kills me.) Lunch out every Tuesday with the crew? All of it's getting scrapped.
> 
> The ~$3500 or so I'll get? Every dollar of it will go into the bank. My goal is to basically have a mortgage payment and what's left of my 0% car loan, with the money on hand to pay the latter off on a moment's notice. I suspect others are going to have that realization soon and they'll start doing the same thing, albeit painfully.
> 
> I really thought we'd see more of it after 2008. I think twice in 13 years is going to finally shock people into saying "f*** it, I'm not getting caught a 3rd time with my pants down."




I and everyone i talk to are doing the same. This is exactly why i think we are beginning of a deflationary spiral. Once the mental shift happens in people's mind to stop spending and start hording cash then it doesn't matter what the government handouts or how much the Fed prints The velocity of money will continue to decelerate until people are confident in their financial situations again.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> You sound really sour lolll.. I was asking about where are the bulls in this thread.



Being realistic is somehow being sour. Noted.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> Being realistic is somehow being sour. Noted.




Yes, you sound extremely sour for some reason. I asked where the bulls are in this thread and look at your response lol.


----------



## BahlDeep

USD Depreciating


----------



## ZDH

ZDH said:


> Did just buy some LNC stock though, I think that one is really solid value right now.




Shouldve bought more...


----------



## valet

The Crypto Guy said:


> Get ready for the market to go back down. Get your monies ready



i got 3x SPY 180p 5/15 and some 4/1 270c's for a lil side hustle while this fake ass pump lasts. hopefully by July i'll have enough cash to get rid of the last bit of my student loans. either that or i'll be broke

fed is clearly doing all kinds of market manipulating with this 'unlimited qe' bs, but i don't think jpow is gonna keep busting his nut all over the place. it's not sustainable. the fed can only accumulate so much bad corporate debt before they say enough is enough and let the market run its course


----------



## The Real JT

valet said:


> i got 3x SPY 180p 5/15 and some 4/1 270c's for a lil side hustle while this fake ass pump lasts. hopefully by July i'll have enough cash to get rid of the last bit of my student loans. either that or i'll be broke
> 
> fed is clearly doing all kinds of market manipulating with this 'unlimited qe' bs, but i don't think jpow is gonna keep busting his nut all over the place. it's not sustainable. the fed can only accumulate so much bad corporate debt before they say enough is enough and let the market run its course




Sold a large portion of my equites at the end of close on Monday so down a bit from there but...

The last 2 days look like a head fake with short covering and low volume. 

I'm on the front lines and I regretfully have to say there's more bad news, lots of it, to come. My only concern with selling is the forced buying for retirement and index funds.

We're going lower IMO. I'm looking at S&P 2000 or a little lower for a partial reentry.


----------



## Thucydides

What’s everyone’s take on penny stocks? Sure most of them are trash, but there are some that are solid gold and can make you an infinite amount of returns . Any penny stock gamblers here? 

I am mostly invested in blue chips - but I do a lot of DD and gamble some play money on penny stocks.


----------



## Thucydides

BahlDeep said:


> Yes, you sound extremely sour for some reason. I asked where the bulls are in this thread and look at your response lol.


----------



## Patrice37

halincandenza said:


> What’s everyone’s take on penny stocks? Sure most of them are trash, but there are some that are solid gold and can make you an infinite amount of returns . Any penny stock gamblers here?
> 
> I am mostly invested in blue chips - but I do a lot of DD and gamble some play money on penny stocks.




I generally stay away but have dabbled in some that have done pretty well. Biggest regret is selling AMD when it was still in the $3s a few years back, obviously not a pennystock though.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bank of Canada cuts key rate to 0.25% as virus, oil fallout deepens - BNN Bloomberg



> The Bank of Canada last cut rates to these levels in 2009, during the global financial crisis. A move toward large scale asset purchases would also be its* first foray ever into so-called quantitative easing*.









Just need a bank of canada logo on this and a very good color printer for the money.


----------



## 48g90a138pts

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Bank of Canada cuts key rate to 0.25% as virus, oil fallout deepens - BNN Bloomberg
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just need a bank of canada logo on this and a very good color printer for the money.




So I guess this means the banks will be raising mortgage rates again huh?

Bloody crooks


----------



## 48g90a138pts

Market rallied all day long then with 30mins left everyone decided they're not holding positions over the weekend.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

48g90a138pts said:


> So I guess this means the banks will be raising mortgage rates again huh?
> 
> Bloody crooks




They should be going down i would think.


----------



## 48g90a138pts

Fixed to Ruin said:


> They should be going down i would think.



Hahaha.... sucka!

Just kidding, but read this. 
Interest rates on new mortgages increasing, despite Bank of Canada rate drop

You would think rates should be going down


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> Yes, you sound extremely sour for some reason. I asked where the bulls are in this thread and look at your response lol.



"I didn't like you stating reality, so I'm going to complain about how I think you responded even though I don't have the first clue what you really think."

Like I said, your remark is noted.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

halincandenza said:


> What’s everyone’s take on penny stocks? Sure most of them are trash, but there are some that are solid gold and can make you an infinite amount of returns . Any penny stock gamblers here?
> 
> I am mostly invested in blue chips - but I do a lot of DD and gamble some play money on penny stocks.



Stated above. It's _incredibly_ high risk. I'm all for risk, and I wouldn't do it.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

48g90a138pts said:


> Hahaha.... sucka!
> 
> Just kidding, but read this.
> Interest rates on new mortgages increasing, despite Bank of Canada rate drop
> 
> You would think rates should be going down




Nobody is going to be buying any houses in the near future. I think eventually the govt will throw all kinds of incentives to stimulate buying.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> "I didn't like you stating reality, so I'm going to complain about how I think you responded even though I don't have the first clue what you really think."
> 
> Like I said, your remark is noted.




Lol... like I said S-O-U-R


----------



## Bounces R Way

Maybe an economy that really doesn't produce much other than debt and speculation on that debt isn't the most stable thing you could dream up 

COVID-19 may have lit this fire, but lets not kid ourselves these pyres have been being assembled for years. Just like 2008. Except unlike 2008 I'm not sure the government and the taxpayer will be able to foot this particular bill. Things are going to get a whole lot worse when fundamental systems start to fail. 

I will be buying some gold and burying it in my parent's yard.


----------



## valet

The Real JT said:


> Sold a large portion of my equites at the end of close on Monday so down a bit from there but...
> 
> The last 2 days look like a head fake with short covering and low volume.
> 
> I'm on the front lines and I regretfully have to say there's more bad news, lots of it, to come. My only concern with selling is the forced buying for retirement and index funds.
> 
> We're going lower IMO. I'm looking at S&P 2000 or a little lower for a partial reentry.



You should have held a bit longer in anticipation of that bounce. Could have made back some of the value you lost from the initial fall.

My calls worked out just in time for me to load up on more Mid April/May puts on friday. We are about to enter another big leg down right now imo. From here I can see the S&P going down to the 1900 range (historic supports) where it will bounce a few hundred points before taking a death spiral all the way down to the 1300 range (my presumed bottom).

Stay safe out there in the world, and smart with your assets when you trade. We're just at the beginning of this crisis.


----------



## The Real JT

valet said:


> You should have held a bit longer in anticipation of that bounce. Could have made back some of the value you lost from the initial fall.
> 
> My calls worked out just in time for me to load up on more Mid April/May puts on friday. We are about to enter another big leg down right now imo. From here I can see the S&P going down to the 1900 range (historic supports) where it will bounce a few hundred points before taking a death spiral all the way down to the 1300 range (my presumed bottom).
> 
> Stay safe out there in the world, and smart with your assets when you trade. We're just at the beginning of this crisis.




Agree I should've held a little longer but hindsight's 20-20 and a lack of discipline is why I've gone mainly to low cost funds and ETFs. 

I made good money on shorts many years ago but lacked discipline on my long positions and also my timing was just off on my puts. 

All said, I love the game but I don't have the time and savvy to micromanage.

I agree with a fall but think S&P 1900 should hold. I'll buy back in around 1900-2000.

Good luck.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> Lol... like I said S-O-U-R



Still making comments thinking you have any idea what I think, when we both know *you have no idea* what I really think.

Seriously, quit digging the hole.


----------



## cupcrazyman

When the stock market hits rock bottom,thats when the rich will buy their stocks back along with all the others that were sold when everyone else paniced.

That's how the rich get richer.


----------



## Hockey Outsider

BahlDeep said:


> Where are the bulls?




If you're taking a long-term view, it would be unwise not to be bullish. Betting against the power of the US economy has always proven to be a poor long-term position. It's highly unlikely that this will change in our lifetimes.

I don't know what the stock market will do next week, next month, or next year. Even five years out, I can't say with certainty it will be higher than it is today (it's highly probable, but not certain). The reality is nobody else in this thread knows. (If they did, they wouldn't be giving away their insights for free on a hockey message board). But over long time frames - twenty or more years - the Dow Jones has never decreased in value.

There's a ton of academic research showing that short-term speculators can't beat the market with any consistency. Aside from the fact that people simply have no idea how to predict short-term movements ("charting", which I've seen references to throughout this thread, has as strong a foundation as alchemy and phrenology) - most short-term traders are faced with transaction fees and taxes that far exceed what a disciplined long-term investor would incur.

Buying and holding is a guaranteed way to get rich slowly. The key word is "slowly". It takes patience and discipline, but if your horizon is twenty or thirty years, it's your best option. Most of my money is in diversified ETF's with minuscule management fees. When I buy stocks of a specific company, it needs to demonstrate several characteristics - a wide economic moat, a history of maintaining/increasing dividend payouts, and a conservative dividend payout ratio. Now is probably a good time to buy since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago.

I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987. Unless you think Western civilization will collapse (in which case, money would no longer have any value anyway), this correction will pass - just like all the others before it.

Obviously, this advice isn't for people who need the cash soon. If you're saving for tuition, or saving for a down-payment in a few years, stocks probably aren't your best option. You'd need to protect your capital. But if you were to invest in stocks, buying stable, boring, dividend-paying stocks would be a much better strategy than speculating on put options, in some kind of perverse bet against the same economic system that provides you with your high standard of living.

Most of the advice in this thread is objectively awful. If anybody who's just started their career is reading this, take 10% of your paycheque and invest it in a low-cost, diversified ETF (iShares has many good options - and lest I be accused of having a conflict of interest, I don't own any iShares products). Instead of gambling away your money on trying to do the impossible (guess short-term price swings), you'll be buying a small piece of ownership in active businesses. This advice is boring but, if you stick with it, you're virtually certain to get rich - slowly.


----------



## BahlDeep

Hockey Outsider said:


> If you're taking a long-term view, it would be unwise not to be bullish. Betting against the power of the US economy has always proven to be a poor long-term position. It's highly unlikely that this will change in our lifetimes.
> 
> I don't know what the stock market will do next week, next month, or next year. Even five years out, I can't say with certainty it will be higher than it is today (it's highly probable, but not certain). The reality is nobody else in this thread knows. (If they did, they wouldn't be giving away their insights for free on a hockey message board). But over long time frames - twenty or more years - the Dow Jones has never decreased in value.
> 
> There's a ton of academic research showing that short-term speculators can't beat the market with any consistency. Aside from the fact that people simply have no idea how to predict short-term movements ("charting", which I've seen references to throughout this thread, has as strong a foundation as alchemy and phrenology) - most short-term traders are faced with transaction fees and taxes that far exceed what a disciplined long-term investor would incur.
> 
> Buying and holding is a guaranteed way to get rich slowly. The key word is "slowly". It takes patience and discipline, but if your horizon is twenty or thirty years, it's your best option. Most of my money is in diversified ETF's with minuscule management fees. When I buy stocks of a specific company, it needs to demonstrate several characteristics - a wide economic moat, a history of maintaining/increasing dividend payouts, and a conservative dividend payout ratio. Now is probably a good time to buy since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987. Unless you think Western civilization will collapse (in which case, money would no longer have any value anyway), this correction will pass - just like all the others before it.
> 
> Obviously, this advice isn't for people who need the cash soon. If you're saving for tuition, or saving for a down-payment in a few years, stocks probably aren't your best option. You'd need to protect your capital. But if you were to invest in stocks, buying stable, boring, dividend-paying stocks would be a much better strategy than speculating on put options, in some kind of perverse bet against the same economic system that provides you with your high standard of living.
> 
> *Most of the advice in this thread is objectively awful. If anybody who's just started their career is reading this, take 10% of your paycheque and invest it in a low-cost, diversified ETF (iShares has many good options - and lest I be accused of having a conflict of interest, I don't own any iShares products). Instead of gambling away your money on trying to do the impossible (guess short-term price swings), you'll be buying a small piece of ownership in active businesses. This advice is boring but, if you stick with it, you're virtually certain to get rich - slowly*.




Come hug me


----------



## The Real JT

Hockey Outsider said:


> If you're taking a long-term view, it would be unwise not to be bullish. Betting against the power of the US economy has always proven to be a poor long-term position. It's highly unlikely that this will change in our lifetimes.
> 
> I don't know what the stock market will do next week, next month, or next year. Even five years out, I can't say with certainty it will be higher than it is today (it's highly probable, but not certain). The reality is nobody else in this thread knows. (If they did, they wouldn't be giving away their insights for free on a hockey message board). But over long time frames - twenty or more years - the Dow Jones has never decreased in value.
> 
> There's a ton of academic research showing that short-term speculators can't beat the market with any consistency. Aside from the fact that people simply have no idea how to predict short-term movements ("charting", which I've seen references to throughout this thread, has as strong a foundation as alchemy and phrenology) - most short-term traders are faced with transaction fees and taxes that far exceed what a disciplined long-term investor would incur.
> 
> Buying and holding is a guaranteed way to get rich slowly. The key word is "slowly". It takes patience and discipline, but if your horizon is twenty or thirty years, it's your best option. Most of my money is in diversified ETF's with minuscule management fees. When I buy stocks of a specific company, it needs to demonstrate several characteristics - a wide economic moat, a history of maintaining/increasing dividend payouts, and a conservative dividend payout ratio. Now is probably a good time to buy since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987. Unless you think Western civilization will collapse (in which case, money would no longer have any value anyway), this correction will pass - just like all the others before it.
> 
> Obviously, this advice isn't for people who need the cash soon. If you're saving for tuition, or saving for a down-payment in a few years, stocks probably aren't your best option. You'd need to protect your capital. But if you were to invest in stocks, buying stable, boring, dividend-paying stocks would be a much better strategy than speculating on put options, in some kind of perverse bet against the same economic system that provides you with your high standard of living.
> 
> Most of the advice in this thread is objectively awful. If anybody who's just started their career is reading this, take 10% of your paycheque and invest it in a low-cost, diversified ETF (iShares has many good options - and lest I be accused of having a conflict of interest, I don't own any iShares products). Instead of gambling away your money on trying to do the impossible (guess short-term price swings), you'll be buying a small piece of ownership in active businesses. This advice is boring but, if you stick with it, you're virtually certain to get rich - slowly.




While I don't disagree with your general message of buy and hold, now is a terrible time to buy IMO.

I look at technical analysis (TA) as an essential tool. It may seem divorced from fundamental analysis but the two are really complimentary. Being right on the fundamentals and losing money because programmed trades kick in due to TA triggers is no solace to me.

S&P going lower to 2000 still seems like a good bet to me.


----------



## BahlDeep

The Real JT said:


> While I don't disagree with your general message of buy and hold, *now is a terrible time to buy IMO.*
> 
> I look at technical analysis (TA) as an essential tool. It may seem divorced from fundamental analysis but the two are really complimentary. Being right on the fundamentals and losing money because programmed trades kick in due to TA triggers is no solace to me.
> 
> *S&P going lower to 2000 still seems like a good bet to me.*




No it's not to the bolded.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

BahlDeep said:


> No it's not to the bolded.




When did you start trading/investing in stocks?


----------



## BahlDeep

Fixed to Ruin said:


> When did you start trading/investing in stocks?




4 years ago. I work for a hedge fund, I'm pretty well informed.

Again, it all depends what is your investment horizon and goals. I wouldn't try to time the market, because it doesn't work out well most of the time. 

You don't want to risk missing on good days.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

BahlDeep said:


> 4 years ago. I work for a hedge fund, I'm pretty well informed.
> 
> Again, it all depends what is your investment horizon and goals. I wouldn't try to time the market, because it doesn't work out well most of the time.
> 
> You don't want to risk missing on good days.




Oh ok, that makes sense.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Good day for Canadian Oil stocks so far.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bruins4Lifer said:


> Good day for Canadian Oil stocks so far.




Who knew that pipelines are good for the sector.


----------



## The Real JT

Delete


----------



## The Real JT

BahlDeep said:


> No it's not to the bolded.





I wish you well on your trades but let's agree to disagree.

I have enough knowledge regarding trading and markets to be dangerous (mainly to myself).

With that being said, I have first hand knowledge of the front lines.

It's bad and getting worse. I have no doubt it will get better in time but there most assuredly won't be an easy short term fix without an unexpected and unequivocally effective drug treatment.

In the course of the past 10 days, one of the local hospitals where I work has gone from single digit COVID positive admissions to 75 today with ventilator demand way up. We are also not one of those areas currently in the news.

I think it's only time before a major figure in the political, entertainment or sports world becomes critically ill or worse.

What do you think happens to the market if that were to happen?


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Who knew that pipelines are good for the sector.



Still a bit surprising though. Unless I'm misunderstanding something, TCPL was continuing the KXL construction this year anyways.


----------



## Ainec

What's the play guys?


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

My great grandson lost 35% of his wealth over the last few weeks. He was a year away from retirement. Now he's lost his job and doesn't have enough money for retirement. This is heart breaking.


----------



## John Price

Jiminy Cricket said:


> My great grandson lost 35% of his wealth over the last few weeks. He was a year away from retirement. Now he's lost his job and doesn't have enough money for retirement. This is heart breaking.



hope he is able to survive in these tough times


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Ainec said:


> What's the play guys?




Sit on the sideslines and wait for everyone else to lose their shirts and pick up the pieces in a few months.


----------



## Thucydides

This might be a dumb question but what does it mean when a stock symbol has RF added to the end of it ?
For example the stock symbol was PEAN and then changed to PEANRF. The stock is halted .
thanks.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

halincandenza said:


> This might be a dumb question but what does it mean when a stock symbol has RF added to the end of it ?
> For example the stock symbol was PEAN and then changed to PEANRF. The stock is halted .
> thanks.




If i am not mistaken, the .RF is the exchange it's traded on.

For example, in Canada the stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange have a .TO to their symbols.


----------



## Thucydides

It’s not a .RF just “PEANRF”. Been halted for a couple of years now just noticed this morning it changed . Weird . I looked up a list of exchanges and didn’t see one with the RF. 

this is why you don’t invest in penny stocks. Lol


----------



## BahlDeep

Fixed to Ruin said:


> Sit on the sideslines and wait for everyone else to lose their shirts and pick up the pieces in a few months.




This is an absolute terrible strategy.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

BahlDeep said:


> This is an absolute terrible strategy.




I don't think so.


----------



## member 157595

Hockey Outsider said:


> If you're taking a long-term view, it would be unwise not to be bullish. Betting against the power of the US economy has always proven to be a poor long-term position. It's highly unlikely that this will change in our lifetimes.
> 
> I don't know what the stock market will do next week, next month, or next year. Even five years out, I can't say with certainty it will be higher than it is today (it's highly probable, but not certain). The reality is nobody else in this thread knows. (If they did, they wouldn't be giving away their insights for free on a hockey message board). But over long time frames - twenty or more years - the Dow Jones has never decreased in value.
> 
> There's a ton of academic research showing that short-term speculators can't beat the market with any consistency. Aside from the fact that people simply have no idea how to predict short-term movements ("charting", which I've seen references to throughout this thread, has as strong a foundation as alchemy and phrenology) - most short-term traders are faced with transaction fees and taxes that far exceed what a disciplined long-term investor would incur.
> 
> Buying and holding is a guaranteed way to get rich slowly. The key word is "slowly". It takes patience and discipline, but if your horizon is twenty or thirty years, it's your best option. Most of my money is in diversified ETF's with minuscule management fees. When I buy stocks of a specific company, it needs to demonstrate several characteristics - a wide economic moat, a history of maintaining/increasing dividend payouts, and a conservative dividend payout ratio. Now is probably a good time to buy since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987. Unless you think Western civilization will collapse (in which case, money would no longer have any value anyway), this correction will pass - just like all the others before it.
> 
> Obviously, this advice isn't for people who need the cash soon. If you're saving for tuition, or saving for a down-payment in a few years, stocks probably aren't your best option. You'd need to protect your capital. But if you were to invest in stocks, buying stable, boring, dividend-paying stocks would be a much better strategy than speculating on put options, in some kind of perverse bet against the same economic system that provides you with your high standard of living.
> 
> Most of the advice in this thread is objectively awful. If anybody who's just started their career is reading this, take 10% of your paycheque and invest it in a low-cost, diversified ETF (iShares has many good options - and lest I be accused of having a conflict of interest, I don't own any iShares products). Instead of gambling away your money on trying to do the impossible (guess short-term price swings), you'll be buying a small piece of ownership in active businesses. This advice is boring but, if you stick with it, you're virtually certain to get rich - slowly.









I think I love you.


----------



## Ainec

I'd much rather lose $ trusting myself and only having myself to blame


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Hockey Outsider said:


> If you're taking a long-term view, it would be unwise not to be bullish. Betting against the power of the US economy has always proven to be a poor long-term position. It's highly unlikely that this will change in our lifetimes.
> 
> I don't know what the stock market will do next week, next month, or next year. Even five years out, I can't say with certainty it will be higher than it is today (it's highly probable, but not certain). The reality is nobody else in this thread knows. (If they did, they wouldn't be giving away their insights for free on a hockey message board). But over long time frames - twenty or more years - the Dow Jones has never decreased in value.
> 
> There's a ton of academic research showing that short-term speculators can't beat the market with any consistency. Aside from the fact that people simply have no idea how to predict short-term movements ("charting", which I've seen references to throughout this thread, has as strong a foundation as alchemy and phrenology) - most short-term traders are faced with transaction fees and taxes that far exceed what a disciplined long-term investor would incur.
> 
> Buying and holding is a guaranteed way to get rich slowly. The key word is "slowly". It takes patience and discipline, but if your horizon is twenty or thirty years, it's your best option. Most of my money is in diversified ETF's with minuscule management fees. When I buy stocks of a specific company, it needs to demonstrate several characteristics - a wide economic moat, a history of maintaining/increasing dividend payouts, and a conservative dividend payout ratio. Now is probably a good time to buy since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987. Unless you think Western civilization will collapse (in which case, money would no longer have any value anyway), this correction will pass - just like all the others before it.
> 
> Obviously, this advice isn't for people who need the cash soon. If you're saving for tuition, or saving for a down-payment in a few years, stocks probably aren't your best option. You'd need to protect your capital. But if you were to invest in stocks, buying stable, boring, dividend-paying stocks would be a much better strategy than speculating on put options, in some kind of perverse bet against the same economic system that provides you with your high standard of living.
> 
> Most of the advice in this thread is objectively awful. If anybody who's just started their career is reading this, take 10% of your paycheque and invest it in a low-cost, diversified ETF (iShares has many good options - and lest I be accused of having a conflict of interest, I don't own any iShares products). Instead of gambling away your money on trying to do the impossible (guess short-term price swings), you'll be buying a small piece of ownership in active businesses. This advice is boring but, if you stick with it, you're virtually certain to get rich - slowly.



 Jesus, you could have just said "there is never a bad time to buy, there is never a good time to sell."

Does buy/hold "guarantee" to get you rich slowly? Well, that all depends on where you're buying in, but let's skip that and just say "yes." That still leaves you riding every climb/drop. Great on the climbs, painful on the drops. The buy-and-hold crowd looked great in 2007; at the end of 2008, a shitload of return had been wiped out. Ask people who were planning on retiring in 2009 or 2010 how great buy-and-hold was for them. By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then. That is what "buy-and-hold" got you: two market peaks and ensuing declines, all the volatility of the 2008 meltdown, and nothing extra to compensate for all of it.

*I've* been investing in the market long enough to know that every time the market screamed to new highs at ultra-rich valuations, the "this time is different" crowd was out in force. _We're at permanently new highs, recessions are a thing of the past, buy the dip, this is temporary, this won't spread to the broader market, _... heard 'em all. Watched them all get disproven, often in crushing terms. Watched people go from crowing about 15% annual returns to freaking out about being flat or worse. Hell, look at the most recent _this is a generational opportunity to buy_ screams. Yeah, it's a generational buying opportunity you last had ... 14 months ago. You know, when no one was saying it was _still_ a generational buying opportunity; it was just _the stock market is going up forever, valuations are fine, all is fine._ 

Is "just start plowing into the market now, ~25% off all-time highs" the worst idea in the world? No, I can think of worse. That still doesn't make it a smart move, though. Should everyone be gambling on short-term moves? Hell no; even my comments are couched with "this is in a play account, if it all disappears no big deal." But I sure as hell wouldn't move my IRA and 401(k) back into the market all-in like everything is fine, March was an aberration and everything is going to back to going up forever.

There are times to buy. Right now is not one of the smarter ones to do it, unless one is totally comfortable with the possibility of watching at least 30% (and more likely 50%) of it disappear before things finally hit bottom. If someone is OK with that, go for it.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Mud the ACAS said:


> Jesus, you could have just said "there is never a bad time to buy, there is never a good time to sell."
> 
> Does buy/hold "guarantee" to get you rich slowly? Well, that all depends on where you're buying in, but let's skip that and just say "yes." That still leaves you riding every climb/drop. Great on the climbs, painful on the drops. The buy-and-hold crowd looked great in 2007; at the end of 2008, a shitload of return had been wiped out. Ask people who were planning on retiring in 2009 or 2010 how great buy-and-hold was for them. By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then. That is what "buy-and-hold" got you: two market peaks and ensuing declines, all the volatility of the 2008 meltdown, and nothing extra to compensate for all of it.
> 
> *I've* been investing in the market long enough to know that every time the market screamed to new highs at ultra-rich valuations, the "this time is different" crowd was out in force. _We're at permanently new highs, recessions are a thing of the past, buy the dip, this is temporary, this won't spread to the broader market, _... heard 'em all. Watched them all get disproven, often in crushing terms. Watched people go from crowing about 15% annual returns to freaking out about being flat or worse. Hell, look at the most recent _this is a generational opportunity to buy_ screams. Yeah, it's a generational buying opportunity you last had ... 14 months ago. You know, when no one was saying it was _still_ a generational buying opportunity; it was just _the stock market is going up forever, valuations are fine, all is fine._
> 
> Is "just start plowing into the market now, ~25% off all-time highs" the worst idea in the world? No, I can think of worse. That still doesn't make it a smart move, though. Should everyone be gambling on short-term moves? Hell no; even my comments are couched with "this is in a play account, if it all disappears no big deal." But I sure as hell wouldn't move my IRA and 401(k) back into the market all-in like everything is fine, March was an aberration and everything is going to back to going up forever.
> 
> There are times to buy. Right now is not one of the smarter ones to do it, unless one is totally comfortable with the possibility of watching at least 30% (and more likely 50%) of it disappear before things finally hit bottom. If someone is OK with that, go for it.




We have two stock market threads on a hockey prospects board. I can't think of a more obvious denial/bull trap signal than that.


----------



## BahlDeep

Mud the ACAS said:


> Jesus, you could have just said "there is never a bad time to buy, there is never a good time to sell."
> 
> Does buy/hold "guarantee" to get you rich slowly? Well, that all depends on where you're buying in, but let's skip that and just say "yes." That still leaves you riding every climb/drop. Great on the climbs, painful on the drops. *The buy-and-hold crowd looked great in 2007; at the end of 2008, a shitload of return had been wiped out.* Ask people who were planning on retiring in 2009 or 2010 how great buy-and-hold was for them. By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then. That is what "buy-and-hold" got you: two market peaks and ensuing declines, all the volatility of the 2008 meltdown, and nothing extra to compensate for all of it.
> 
> *I've* been investing in the market long enough to know that every time the market screamed to new highs at ultra-rich valuations, the "this time is different" crowd was out in force. _We're at permanently new highs, recessions are a thing of the past, buy the dip, this is temporary, this won't spread to the broader market, _... heard 'em all. Watched them all get disproven, often in crushing terms. Watched people go from crowing about 15% annual returns to freaking out about being flat or worse. Hell, look at the most recent _this is a generational opportunity to buy_ screams. Yeah, it's a generational buying opportunity you last had ... 14 months ago. You know, when no one was saying it was _still_ a generational buying opportunity; it was just _the stock market is going up forever, valuations are fine, all is fine._
> 
> Is "just start plowing into the market now, ~25% off all-time highs" the worst idea in the world? No, I can think of worse. That still doesn't make it a smart move, though. Should everyone be gambling on short-term moves? Hell no; even my comments are couched with "this is in a play account, if it all disappears no big deal." But I sure as hell wouldn't move my IRA and 401(k) back into the market all-in like everything is fine, March was an aberration and everything is going to back to going up forever.
> 
> *There are times to buy. Right now is not one of the smarter ones to do it, unless one is totally comfortable with the possibility of watching at least 30% (and more likely 50%) of it disappear before things finally hit bottom. If someone is OK with that, go for it.*




What is absolutely ridiculous is that you assume that someone who is 2 years out of retirement would have 100% of his portofolio in stocks with no regards to portfolio diversification through asset classes.

As mentioned, if you have a long term horizon like 10 years+, you would be an absolute idiot to not put money to work right now. Prove me wrong, you won't and you can't.

And on the second bold...you don't know that. You talk like this is a guarantee...which is absolutely not. You don't try to time the market because you will end up on the losing end of things a majority of the time. Even if you are half right, you are still in better position then if you are completely wrong. 

Anyone in this thread wants to follow his advice, you're shooting yourself in the foot.


----------



## The Real JT

BahlDeep said:


> What is absolutely ridiculous is that you assume that someone who is 2 years out of retirement would have 100% of his portofolio in stocks with no regards to portfolio diversification through asset classes.
> 
> As mentioned, if you have a long term horizon like 10 years+*, you would be an absolute idiot to not put money to work right now.* Prove me wrong, you won't and you can't.
> 
> And on the second bold...you don't know that. You talk like this is a guarantee...which is absolutely not. You don't try to time the market because you will end up on the losing end of things a majority of the time. Even if you are half right, you are still in better position then if you are completely wrong.
> 
> Anyone in this thread wants to follow his advice, you're shooting yourself in the foot.




Disagree strongly regarding the bolded type.

Feel free to hold here in the current trading range but short term upside over 2600 in the SPY is very unlikely. Why invest now when you can very likely get in at similar valuations in the next 1-2 months?

Meanwhile, downside to the 1900-2100 range is a decent possibility.

A proven treatment for COVID is the only thing that might spur a strong upside move but I wouldn't bet on hydroxychloroquine. Remdesivir and other trials are also ongoing. 

Nothing of significance regarding drug trials will be reported for at least a month. 

In the meantime, all kinds of unknown bad news can surface and the economy is at a standstill with bankruptcies galore to come.

Cash is the place to be.


----------



## PositiveCashFlow

What's funny is TV allows me to do TA on COVID-19 infection and death rates


----------



## Ted Hoffman

BahlDeep said:


> What is absolutely ridiculous is that you assume that someone who is 2 years out of retirement would have 100% of his portofolio in stocks with no regards to portfolio diversification through asset classes.



You seriously have *no idea* how many people 1-2 years out from retirement are still 100% in the stock market because they're afraid of missing out on high stock market returns before they finally call it quits.



BahlDeep said:


> As mentioned, if you have a long term horizon like 10 years+, you would be an absolute idiot to not put money to work right now. Prove me wrong, you won't and you can't.



This is "all the holes I dig in the yard keep meteors from falling on the house. Prove me wrong" logic I'd expect out of a 7-year old. I mean, I've only pointed to a instances where a 10-year horizon clearly left you underwater - including the '08 downturn that eventually left investors in the same exact spot they would have been had they just parked in Treasuries for almost 14 years - but hey ... if we ignore all the times it's wrong, it's always right!



BahlDeep said:


> And on the second bold...you don't know that. You talk like this is a guarantee...which is absolutely not. You don't try to time the market because you will end up on the losing end of things a majority of the time. Even if you are half right, you are still in better position then if you are completely wrong.



Bookmarked for the future.



BahlDeep said:


> Anyone in this thread wants to follow his advice, you're shooting yourself in the foot.



"I disagree with you, so obviously you're wrong because there's zero chance I'm ever going to admit I might not be right. BUY STOCKS, ALWAYS AND FOREVER!"


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Mud the ACAS said:


> You seriously have *no idea* how many people 1-2 years out from retirement are still 100% in the stock market because they're afraid of missing out on high stock market returns before they finally call it quits



How many? Or as a certain % of people <2 years from retirement.


----------



## Fixed to Ruin

Bruins4Lifer said:


> How many? Or as a certain % of people <2 years from retirement.









That's alot of boomers.


----------



## 48g90a138pts

Dropping this off here as ppl who like to invest like trading ideas. 
Explainer: How the coronavirus crisis is affecting food supply


----------



## Fixed to Ruin




----------



## Hockey Outsider

Mud the ACAS said:


> Jesus, you could have just said "there is never a bad time to buy, there is never a good time to sell."
> 
> Does buy/hold "guarantee" to get you rich slowly? Well, that all depends on where you're buying in, but let's skip that and just say "yes." That still leaves you riding every climb/drop. Great on the climbs, painful on the drops. The buy-and-hold crowd looked great in 2007; at the end of 2008, a shitload of return had been wiped out. Ask people who were planning on retiring in 2009 or 2010 how great buy-and-hold was for them. By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then. That is what "buy-and-hold" got you: two market peaks and ensuing declines, all the volatility of the 2008 meltdown, and nothing extra to compensate for all of it.
> 
> *I've* been investing in the market long enough to know that every time the market screamed to new highs at ultra-rich valuations, the "this time is different" crowd was out in force. _We're at permanently new highs, recessions are a thing of the past, buy the dip, this is temporary, this won't spread to the broader market, _... heard 'em all. Watched them all get disproven, often in crushing terms. Watched people go from crowing about 15% annual returns to freaking out about being flat or worse. Hell, look at the most recent _this is a generational opportunity to buy_ screams. Yeah, it's a generational buying opportunity you last had ... 14 months ago. You know, when no one was saying it was _still_ a generational buying opportunity; it was just _the stock market is going up forever, valuations are fine, all is fine._
> 
> Is "just start plowing into the market now, ~25% off all-time highs" the worst idea in the world? No, I can think of worse. That still doesn't make it a smart move, though. Should everyone be gambling on short-term moves? Hell no; even my comments are couched with "this is in a play account, if it all disappears no big deal." But I sure as hell wouldn't move my IRA and 401(k) back into the market all-in like everything is fine, March was an aberration and everything is going to back to going up forever.
> 
> There are times to buy. Right now is not one of the smarter ones to do it, unless one is totally comfortable with the possibility of watching at least 30% (and more likely 50%) of it disappear before things finally hit bottom. If someone is OK with that, go for it.




I didn't say there's never a bad time to buy. Clearly, certain times are better to buy than others. But the number of individuals who can predict that in advance (i.e. beat/time the market), over the long term, is exceedingly small. So the question is - is the average person better trying to time the market, or buy consistently throughout the span of their career? It's not even a matter of opinion. There's a huge amount of academic research showing that the average person is better investing long-term and riding out whatever waves exist.

"Ask people who were planning on retiring in 2009 or 2010 how great buy-and-hold was for them". If someone was planning on retiring in 2009, and still had their portfolio heavily invested in equities at that point, then I say, with all due respect, that's their fault for taking on too much risk. It's well established that people approaching retirement should gradually move out of stocks into less risky assets (cash, bonds, maybe preferred shares). But that has nothing to do with attempting to time the market - it's changing their portfolio allocation to avoid "sequence of return" risk (that is, the risk that their investments tank right around the time they retire).

"By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then". That's obviously a cherry-picked example. The vast majority of five- or ten-year periods that can be picked from the 20th/21st century show the market rising, usually significantly. There's certainly the possibility of decreases over some five and even ten year spans, but the longer the time frame is, the lower the likelihood of a loss. By the time you're looking at thirty year time frames (ie the amount of time someone needs to save for retirement), there are zero such instances of stocks losing money. (That doesn't mean it can't happen in the future - but the prospect of the US/world stock market not growing for three decades would require such a serious disruption to society that money, as it currently exists, would probably be worthless or obsolete anyway).

(Another point to consider - I believe from the numbers you're quoting you're only looking at the Dow Jones index value - you've ignored all the dividends that would have been paid over those 14 years, which still would have made you wealthier had you bought stocks instead of treasuries - even in a cherry-picked worst-case scenario).

"I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time the market screamed to new highs at ultra-rich valuations, the "this time is different" crowd was out in force." I can't speak to your experience, but in my own experience, I can say that this is a mischaracterization of most long-term investors. The vast majority of buy-and-hold investors that I've spoken to have no illusion that there will be growth every year, or make statements like "recessions are a thing of the past" (an asinine position). They just don't care (or, maybe more accurately, know that they're not smart enough to time the market). If you're saving for retirement twenty or thirty years away, why panic over a temporary correction that will ultimately be reversed?

"Should everyone be gambling on short-term moves? Hell no; even my comments are couched with "this is in a play account, if it all disappears no big deal." Fair enough, I think it's fine to take that position. For me personally - in the past, I've made highly speculative investments. Some worked out well, others failed (but in every case, it was money I could afford to lose). But at this point, I've concluded that I work too hard to risk losing money on bad investments. Everyone's individual mileage will vary, of course.

"Right now is not one of the smarter ones to do it, unless one is totally comfortable with the possibility of watching at least 30% (and more likely 50%) of it disappear before things finally hit bottom. If someone is OK with that, go for it." For the record, I have no idea where the market will go from here. A 50% drop would be extreme (since we're already down around 25% over the past two months) - but we're living in uncertain times. It's a possibility (personally, if the market dropped 50%, I'd scrounge together every spare penny I had to buy more stocks). But I also know people who missed out on years' worth of gains because they kept "waiting for the bottom" in 2008. That’s the thing – nobody knows where the market is going. If someone has a chunk of cash I definitely wouldn’t suggest going all-in today, but I also wouldn’t suggest keeping it all in cash and waiting for a bigger drop that might never come.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

"No one getting ready to retire is 100% invested in the market." -- someone up above.

I can't share pictures of the texts I got last night from a former co-worker, but it's about our former boss. Guy's a VP, arguably (certainly in his mind) #4 in the company we used to be at, _easily_ making mid-200s [including bonuses, it's over 300k] and has been over 200k for about 20 years. Self-described REALLY SMART guy, _been a lot of places, seen a lot of things, done a lot of stuff_. You name it, he'd done it and has past experience about it. Had planned to retire at the end of 2020; now is going to wait until the S&P gets to ~3600 to get to what he wants to retire on (which he thought would happen by early June) but doesn't want to have to work into 2023.

Yes, he's still 100% in the market with no plans to allocate to something at least more appropriate for his age, because ... see last sentence in prior comment.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

I'm only going to respond to this snippet, because it's all that really matters. And, because I have better things to do today than shred this post too. And, because no matter how thoroughly I shred it you and a few others will keep parroting the same lines because "I might be wrong" will never cross your mind.



Hockey Outsider said:


> "By the time markets bottomed in 2009, you were in the same exact spot you would have been having just sat in Treasuries from May, 1995 to then". That's obviously a cherry-picked example. The vast majority of five- or ten-year periods that can be picked from the 20th/21st century show the market rising, usually significantly. There's certainly the possibility of decreases over some five and even ten year spans, but the longer the time frame is, the lower the likelihood of a loss. By the time you're looking at thirty year time frames (ie the amount of time someone needs to save for retirement), there are zero such instances of stocks losing money. (That doesn't mean it can't happen in the future - but the prospect of the US/world stock market not growing for three decades would require such a serious disruption to society that money, as it currently exists, would probably be worthless or obsolete anyway).
> 
> (Another point to consider - I believe from the numbers you're quoting you're only looking at the Dow Jones index value - you've ignored all the dividends that would have been paid over those 14 years, which still would have made you wealthier had you bought stocks instead of treasuries - even in a cherry-picked worst-case scenario).



IDGAF about the Dow. I'm looking at the S&P for 1995-2009 and a few other notable time periods where 10-year returns struggled to beat Treasuries. Think I'm wrong? Go take it up with John Hussman and explain to him why he's wrong. Hell, maybe you can pitch him on the virtues of "buy-and-hold, don't ever do anything else" as well.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Fixed to Ruin said:


>




Yeah I suppose if you bought right before one market crash and then sold right after another, your returns probably wouldn't be very good.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Mud the ACAS said:


> IDGAF about the Dow. I'm looking at the S&P for 1995-2009 and a few other notable time periods where 10-year returns struggled to beat Treasuries. Think I'm wrong? Go take it up with John Hussman and explain to him why he's wrong. Hell, maybe you can pitch him on the virtues of "buy-and-hold, don't ever do anything else" as well.



This is the guy who's predicted 11 of the last 2 recessions, right? You gotta be kidding me.


----------



## Hockey Outsider

Mud the ACAS said:


> I'm only going to respond to this snippet, because it's all that really matters. And, because I have better things to do today than shred this post too. And, because no matter how thoroughly I shred it you and a few others will keep parroting the same lines because "I might be wrong" will never cross your mind.
> 
> 
> IDGAF about the Dow. I'm looking at the S&P for 1995-2009 and a few other notable time periods where 10-year returns struggled to beat Treasuries. Think I'm wrong? Go take it up with John Hussman and explain to him why he's wrong. Hell, maybe you can pitch him on the virtues of "buy-and-hold, don't ever do anything else" as well.




To recap - you wrote a long rebuttal to me. I wrote a long rebuttal to you. Then you say you have "better things to do", but twice state you would "shred" the argument. That's just posturing. If you can disprove my points, then do it - otherwise I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.

As for implying that I'd never admit I'm wrong - if you can show me a viable strategy that will make me more money, I'd implement it. My incentive is exactly the same as yours - to make as much money on my investments as I can (taking the level of risk into account).

Yes, I'm familiar with Hussman's article. I read it last fall. Some of the data that he provides is interesting. But the problem with it is it still doesn't tell you when to sell your stocks, or when to get back in. It just gives you some interesting metrics to consider. That's far from a practical, workable strategy.

By the way - if Hussman's argument is right and he really found a way to consistently beat the market - do you really think he'd give that away for free on the internet?

(Now Hussman's article appears to have been "proven right" with respect to the market being over-valued in fall 2019 because of the steep drop-off that just occurred. But it seems obvious that the catalyst for the drop-off was the pandemic, and the resultant economic shutdown - something nobody could have predicted six months ago. He ended up getting the right answer, at least six months out, but it was due to an unknowable event).

All that being said - whether Hussman's strategies have led to higher returns than a buy and hold strategy is a matter of empirical evidence. Hussman has a fund (HSGFX) that has the S&P as it's long term benchmark. Let's see how it's done from 2000 to today:



So this proves my point. The person you're quoting, who set up a fund designed to track the S&P but with "a combined focus on valuation and market action", has been soundly trounced over the past two decades. The fund had some impressive wins initially (he appears to have avoided the 2001 crash unscathed), but he couldn't sustain it long term - that's nearly always the case with active management. (According to the June 30, 2019 annual prospectus, you'd be paying his company an annual management fee of 0.90% - for the privilege of losing ground compared to the market overall). In case you think I've manipulated the data, this is taken directly from the aforementioned prospectus:



According to the most recent prospectus - he beat the market over one year, but lags badly behind after five and ten years. If you look through the fund prospectus, the table on page 6 shows that his fund had negative returns in seven of the past ten years (with none of the three years having more than about a 9% gain) - a truly stunning performance given that the S&P more than doubled during that period.

(To further prove my point - this shows the downside of being too negative on the market. Hussman has generally been bearish on the market and missed out on a decade's worth of positive returns - waiting for a crash that only came because of an unpredictable pandemic - and even taking that crash into account, you'd still have made substantially more money following the S&P than investing in his fund. In April 2010, the S&P was at 1,178 and his fund was at $12.71 - ten years later, even after a crash, the S&P is up to 2,488 and his fund is at $5.97 - so after that decade, you'd have doubled your money staying invested in the S&P, and you would have lost more than half your money following his bearish strategies - by virtue of missing out on a decade's worth of growth).

To be clear, this isn't an attack on Hussman - a highly educated, successful professional - it just shows the difficulty of beating the market over the long-term.


----------



## NYSPORTS

BahlDeep said:


> I mean it's laughable at how much everyone is trying to time at when they should jump back in the market. I'm not looking to make a quick buck here, if you have a long time horizon and haven't bought in yet....you are an idiot.
> 
> Markets have priced most of their concerns to this crisis.. correlations across asset classes went to 1, this is an indicator that we are close to or reached the bottom. I am not saying that the market won't go through vol.periods, but the worst is most probably behind us.




respectfully, how can the worst be behind us? It’s been literally 3 weeks. The coast line states haven’t even reached their Apex, many will reach that apex a week or two after New York while the States off the coast line have barley been touched by the Virus yet. Why would anybody with cash reserves dive into the market so soon? Forget timing the market, you could miss it by 20% and still make a killing when this collapses. Only the stimulus is holding it up IMO. Companies aren’t making or selling much of anything and this only started. I respect you’re in the hedge fund world while I was in close proximity to LTCM when Genius Failed. They had it all figured out too. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.


----------



## BahlDeep

Hockey Outsider said:


> To recap - you wrote a long rebuttal to me. I wrote a long rebuttal to you. Then you say you have "better things to do", but twice state you would "shred" the argument. That's just posturing. If you can disprove my points, then do it - otherwise I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.
> 
> As for implying that I'd never admit I'm wrong - if you can show me a viable strategy that will make me more money, I'd implement it. My incentive is exactly the same as yours - to make as much money on my investments as I can (taking the level of risk into account).
> 
> Yes, I'm familiar with Hussman's article. I read it last fall. Some of the data that he provides is interesting. But the problem with it is it still doesn't tell you when to sell your stocks, or when to get back in. It just gives you some interesting metrics to consider. That's far from a practical, workable strategy.
> 
> By the way - if Hussman's argument is right and he really found a way to consistently beat the market - do you really think he'd give that away for free on the internet?
> 
> (Now Hussman's article appears to have been "proven right" with respect to the market being over-valued in fall 2019 because of the steep drop-off that just occurred. But it seems obvious that the catalyst for the drop-off was the pandemic, and the resultant economic shutdown - something nobody could have predicted six months ago. He ended up getting the right answer, at least six months out, but it was due to an unknowable event).
> 
> All that being said - whether Hussman's strategies have led to higher returns than a buy and hold strategy is a matter of empirical evidence. Hussman has a fund (HSGFX) that has the S&P as it's long term benchmark. Let's see how it's done from 2000 to today:
> 
> View attachment 340432
> 
> So this proves my point. The person you're quoting, who set up a fund designed to track the S&P but with "a combined focus on valuation and market action", has been soundly trounced over the past two decades. The fund had some impressive wins initially (he appears to have avoided the 2001 crash unscathed), but he couldn't sustain it long term - that's nearly always the case with active management. (According to the June 30, 2019 annual prospectus, you'd be paying his company an annual management fee of 0.90% - for the privilege of losing ground compared to the market overall). In case you think I've manipulated the data, this is taken directly from the aforementioned prospectus:
> 
> View attachment 340438
> 
> According to the most recent prospectus - he beat the market over one year, but lags badly behind after five and ten years. If you look through the fund prospectus, the table on page 6 shows that his fund had negative returns in seven of the past ten years (with none of the three years having more than about a 9% gain) - a truly stunning performance given that the S&P more than doubled during that period.
> 
> (To further prove my point - this shows the downside of being too negative on the market. Hussman has generally been bearish on the market and missed out on a decade's worth of positive returns - waiting for a crash that only came because of an unpredictable pandemic - and even taking that crash into account, you'd still have made substantially more money following the S&P than investing in his fund. In April 2010, the S&P was at 1,178 and his fund was at $12.71 - ten years later, even after a crash, the S&P is up to 2,488 and his fund is at $5.97 - so after that decade, you'd have doubled your money staying invested in the S&P, and you would have lost more than half your money following his bearish strategies - by virtue of missing out on a decade's worth of growth).
> 
> To be clear, this isn't an attack on Hussman - a highly educated, successful professional - it just shows the difficulty of beating the market over the long-term.




Timing the market will hurt you in the long run...this has been proven relentlessly. Thank you for taking the time for this respone, this was awesome.


----------



## BahlDeep

NYSPORTS said:


> respectfully, how can the worst be behind us? It’s been literally 3 weeks. The coast line states haven’t even reached their Apex, many will reach that apex a week or two after New York while the States off the coast line have barley been touched by the Virus yet. Why would anybody with cash reserves dive into the market so soon? Forget timing the market, you could miss it by 20% and still make a killing when this collapses. Only the stimulus is holding it up IMO. Companies aren’t making or selling much of anything and this only started. I respect you’re in the hedge fund world while I was in close proximity to LTCM when Genius Failed. They had it all figured out too. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.




Not to get in politics, but Trump will have this thing rolling as soon as he can. Something that I feel like I always have to remind people is that the market already priced in available public information and expectations. The market has priced in the estimates of 100-240k death accross the country.

You don't time the market. You won't win. Ask all the active managers. There's too many variables, too many things happening especially in an unstable environment like this one.

I rather not take the bet of the market dropping another 20%. I rather just invest continously whenever I see the opportunity. I have no problem with people having a different opinion because this is exactly what the market consists off.


----------



## Ainec

BahlDeep said:


> Not to get in politics, but Trump will have this thing rolling as soon as he can. Something that I feel like I always have to remind people is that the market already priced in available public information and expectations. The market has priced in the estimates of 100-240k death accross the country.
> 
> You don't time the market. You won't win. Ask all the active managers. There's too many variables, too many things happening especially in an unstable environment like this one.
> 
> I rather not take the bet of the market dropping another 20%. I rather just invest continously whenever I see the opportunity. I have no problem with people having a different opinion because this is exactly what the market consists off.




What if all retail investors and some institutional investors just decide to not "time" the market? 

Wouldn't this be bad for price discovery? The market is now dictated by the few remaining hedge funds and institutions.


----------



## BahlDeep

Ainec said:


> What if all retail investors and some institutional investors just decide to not "time" the market?
> 
> Wouldn't this be bad for price discovery? The market is now dictated by the few remaining hedge funds and institutions.




Follow the smart money my friend. The smart money is being put to work.


----------



## Ainec

BahlDeep said:


> Follow the smart money my friend. The smart money is being put to work.




Ray Dalio believed we were headed towards a crash (2019). I followed him and sold my entire portfolio in late Jan early Feb


----------



## BahlDeep

Ainec said:


> Ray Dalio believed we were headed towards a crash (2019). I followed him and sold my entire portfolio in late Jan early Feb




Again, that proves even the best of them have trouble timing the market.

Btw, most of the market believed we were going into a crash in 2019 following that awful Q4 2018, then the fed went from hiking rates to lowering them. That's why you can't time the market. Lots of variables involved which can have the market do a total 180 in a very short period of time.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

Hockey Outsider said:


> To recap - you wrote a long rebuttal to me. I wrote a long rebuttal to you. Then you say you have "better things to do", but twice state you would "shred" the argument. That's just posturing. If you can disprove my points, then do it - otherwise I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.



If I were to disprove your points, you'd simply argue that I'm cherry-picking, not looking at the whole picture, demand that I make some prediction about specific events, and on and on. In short: you'd simply just keep shifting the goalposts until you got to something that couldn't be proven wrong and then proclaim you were really right on something far-removed from the original point.



Hockey Outsider said:


> As for implying that I'd never admit I'm wrong - if you can show me a viable strategy that will make me more money, I'd implement it. My incentive is exactly the same as yours - to make as much money on my investments as I can (taking the level of risk into account).



See "prove something conclusively, otherwise I'm right" above. However, let's just try "sell when the market drops 20% off a high, wait until the market goes up 20% off a bottom before buying back in." Yeah, you miss rebounds off the very bottom; you also miss some *big* drops off the high. You end up significantly better off than just buying and holding through all the dips.

I'll leave it to you to do the math.



Hockey Outsider said:


> Yes, I'm familiar with Hussman's article. I read it last fall. Some of the data that he provides is interesting. But the problem with it is it still doesn't tell you when to sell your stocks, or when to get back in. It just gives you some interesting metrics to consider. That's far from a practical, workable strategy.



See "prove something conclusively, otherwise I'm right" above.



Hockey Outsider said:


> By the way - if Hussman's argument is right and he really found a way to consistently beat the market - do you really think he'd give that away for free on the internet?



This is the "market is always efficient" argument that's been shattered countless times across history, but every time things are going up, up, up its proponents scream _THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!_



Hockey Outsider said:


> (Now Hussman's article appears to have been "proven right" with respect to the market being over-valued in fall 2019 because of the steep drop-off that just occurred. But it seems obvious that the catalyst for the drop-off was the pandemic, and the resultant economic shutdown - something nobody could have predicted six months ago. He ended up getting the right answer, at least six months out, but it was due to an unknowable event).



Sure, it was all the pandemic's fault. Not "companies are obscenely valued while profits are stagnant, debt is increasing, companies are forking over free cash flow to pump up stock prices so that EPS looks better and better to pump up stock prices even more." Not "we're in the 11th year of a bull market now being pumped up by declining interest rates because the Fed believes the economy is simultaneously really strong and too weak to survive even 2.5% interest rates after having near-zero interest rates for nearly 7 years." Not "the bond market is signaling there's an issue as implied yields start to increase for lower-rated debt and investors are seeking safety out on the curve instead of near-term." Not "the Fed suddenly started ramping up repos for allegedly 'everything is fine, this is just a test' reasons which didn't pass the sniff test to anyone who thought more than 2 seconds about it."

No, it's that goddamn pandemic - _that_ is the only problem. Everything else was perfect! 

The pandemic was the pin that happened to prick the bubble. If it hadn't been the pandemic, it would have been something else - and, based on comments like above, you would have excused it as some freak thing and argued that everything was really fine.



Hockey Outsider said:


> All that being said - whether Hussman's strategies have led to higher returns than a buy and hold strategy is a matter of empirical evidence. Hussman has a fund (HSGFX) that has the S&P as it's long term benchmark. Let's see how it's done from 2000 to today:
> 
> So this proves my point. The person you're quoting, who set up a fund designed to track the S&P but with "a combined focus on valuation and market action", has been soundly trounced over the past two decades.



Right, let's track it all the way into a market peak where he points out valuations are at all-time highs. That's a great way to measure value. It's as bad as touting all the gains from S&P 676 to S&P 3388, totally ignoring the drop from S&P 1565 to 676, and saying "I'm up 500% over that time, I did so great! It proves everyone should always be in stocks, they never go down!"

Hussman is up front about his mistake in this. Has been repeatedly. No, we don't know what would have happened had current strategies been in place throughout this bull market. Just like we have no idea what would have happened had Congress not threatened FASB and prompted the suspension of FASB 157, which allows banks and other companies to mark assets that they don't believe the market value of to whatever they want in order to ignore the possibility that they might actually be bankrupt.

You're using the "he's been wrong, so he can't possibly be right now" fallacy. You should double-double-triple down on all such statements, instead of looking for context and trying to get the full picture. God knows I wouldn't want you and others to admit you might be wrong about what's really going on.


----------



## Ted Hoffman

And speaking of being wrong: the market is up 5.7% on the belief that

-- deaths in NYC have peaked based on one (1) day's worth of reporting that a number of sources say might not be accurate,
-- that "trend" is totally applicable to the rest of the nation, where swaths of the country are only getting started with dealing with the virus,
-- companies saying "consumers being at home will lead to more shopping" are totally right, as if ~12% of the workforce being unemployed (some estimating 20% or more) won't cause consumers to retrench spending deeply to "put food on the table" and "pay bills" and shun a lot of discretionary spending
-- stimulus checks are flowing to Americans, when in reality they're still a couple weeks at best (and in some cases, months) away from actually showing up
-- small businesses are getting loans from the stimulus programs enacted, when _exactly zero_ loans have been approved much less disbursed and there's no clue when that program might actually start functioning
-- estimates of "only" a 3-6% drop in earnings for 2020 (based off 12/31/19 estimates) is really valid, given that 2Q will be severely impacted and effects are likely to spill over into 3Q and probably even 4Q

and on and on *and on*. The market can be irrational longer than everyone (including me) thinks - but if you think this is a fantastic buying opportunity, you like the market are ignoring *significant* downside risk.

But, buy away all you buy-and-holders. I'm sure this time, like all the other times in history, will be different - and if it's not, there will be some excuse why you were really right.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

Mud the ACAS said:


> See "prove something conclusively, otherwise I'm right" above. However, let's just try "sell when the market drops 20% off a high, wait until the market goes up 20% off a bottom before buying back in." Yeah, you miss rebounds off the very bottom; you also miss some *big* drops off the high. You end up significantly better off than just buying and holding through all the dips.
> 
> I'll leave it to you to do the math.



Have _you _done the math?

Anyways, does that mean you might be buying back in pretty soon? The S&P 500 is _very close_ to being up 20% from March 23rd at this moment.


----------



## Ainec

tbh I'm hoping the market continues to go up so I can load up on cheaper puts


----------



## The Real JT

The Real JT said:


> I wish you well on your trades but let's agree to disagree.
> 
> I have enough knowledge regarding trading and markets to be dangerous (mainly to myself).
> 
> With that being said, I have first hand knowledge of the front lines.
> 
> It's bad and getting worse. I have no doubt it will get better in time but there most assuredly won't be an easy short term fix without an unexpected and unequivocally effective drug treatment.
> 
> In the course of the past 10 days, one of the local hospitals where I work has gone from single digit COVID positive admissions to 75 today with ventilator demand way up. We are also not one of those areas currently in the news.
> 
> *I think it's only time before a major figure in the political, entertainment or sports world becomes critically ill or worse.*
> 
> What do you think happens to the market if that were to happen?




Why do people listen to non-experts who say COVID is like the flu?

Boris Johnson got admitted to the hospital yesterday for "further testing". That was clearly nonsense. Those types of admissions don't happen in our era.

Now he is being moved to the ICU. 

A recent UK study of 98 ICU patients with COVID who required ventilatory support showed a 66% mortality rate. 

I wish him well. 

Meanwhile, my hospital is now at 150 COVID positive admissions. My state, Connecticut, is never mentioned in the news.

I'm still mainly in cash.


----------



## Hockey Outsider

Bruins4Lifer said:


> Have _you _done the math?
> 
> Anyways, does that mean you might be buying back in pretty soon? The S&P 500 is _very close_ to being up 20% from March 23rd at this moment.




Nice observation. The S&P reached a low of 2,191.86 on March 23rd. It reached a high of 2,676.85 late this afternoon - a gain of 22.1%.

According to the previous poster's "formula" - now is the time to buy back into the market! After all, it's up 20% from a recent low. It would be interesting to hear how that gets reconciled with the qualitative factors in post #955. Do the qualitative factors take precedence (which means he concedes that his simplistic "formula" isn't all that useful)? Or do the numbers take precedence (in which case, what was the point of the commentary)?

I'll address the other comments (post #954) when I have time later on.


----------



## Thucydides

Trump also wanted to have people packed into churches by Easter .

Yeah he wants to get it rolling - everyone wants to get it rolling , but it’s not that simple. get it rolling too early and you got a major crisis on your hands, bigger than the one we have now . US is not close to reopening the economy. 

Morgan Stanley and other major banks are calling for a deep recession. We are just getting started here.

I did get some cheap vanguard shares for 43 bucks a couple weeks ago. They hit 50 today. Good feeling.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Sideline Nerd`s absolutely Massacre`d... The AnConomy is Boomin`g,,, I`m 100% all In `n` Makin`g an Killin`g,,, Keep ritin`g angry Letter`s about how u Should never invest.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

It would really suck to have been sitting on the sidelines with cash the last few weeks, writing angry essays and missing out on all these gains LMAO.


----------



## Thucydides

This is the timeline we are in now.


----------



## Ainec

I am extremely bearish and think we're headed towards a depression. At the same time, I think saving is a bad bet.

My portfolio right now is cash, shorts, puts, gold and crypto and I want to diversify a more.

I think getting a LOC + mortgage is a good plan, but taking other suggestions from fellow bears.


----------



## The Real JT

Long black candle yesterday.

Just sayin'.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Another terrible day for doomsday nerds, as they let their cash rot away while Buy `n` Hold beasts continue to strike it rich. 

SET IT `N` FORGET IT 

*#CASHISTRASH *


----------



## Thucydides

Fed announces new lending plans it says will provide $2.3 trillion in support for economy.

Feds continue to prop up the economy .


----------



## Thucydides

Another 6.6 million people file for unemployment in the USA. 

this is why Powell announced the 2.3 trillion.


----------



## Ainec

trillion is the new billion


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

*GAINS, GAINS, GAINS.* 

Another Fabulous day on the Market, `n` u won`t here a Peep out of Doomsday nerd`s. 

*BUT MUH UNEMPLOYMENT *

*BUT MUH INFLATION *

*BUT MUH FED *

*BUT MUH VIRUS *

WHERE THE f*** ARE THESE NERD`S NOW.  U HAD NERD`S LIDERALLY PREDICTING THAT THE SALT & PEPPER 500 WOULD GO BACK TO 1250, LMAO!!! 
WHERE THE f*** ARE THESE NERD`S NOW.





*I AM LITERALLY RICH. *


----------



## member 157595

"Salt & Pepper 500" is up there with my favorite Cricket phrases of all time with "8 figure Salamander" and "McSalary."


----------



## The Real JT

Just listened to Mohamed El-Erian with Joe Kernan on CNBC this morning on CNBC.

Is Joe Kernan dumb as a rock or is he just drinking the Kool Aid like 90% of the CNBC hosts and guests?

As of yesterday, my hospital in CT was up to 178 patients with COVID with 39 of them intubated. We are not one of those places that are in the news.

Still bearish.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Just checked my local hospital and it's dead empty. You can hear a pin drop. *BUY, BUY, BUY!!! *


----------



## The Real JT

Jiminy Cricket said:


> Just checked my local hospital and it's *dead empty.* You can hear a pin drop. BUY, BUY, BUY!!!




Interesting choice of words (bolded above). Freudian slip, perhaps?

Thanks for the enlightening response.

I finished my hospital stint this morning. Up to 190 inpatients today with COVID btw.

I'm back in the outpatient setting which remains remarkably quiet, so frankly I'm bored. Otherwise, I wouldn't have posted this reply.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Just sitting here counting my money while nerds continue to cry over imaginary doomsday scenarios. You had every opportunity to buy after a 35% crash and missed the boat. Now there's a new sheriff in town.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

*Report:* I have officially MAXED OUT on money. That's right, I now have the MAXIMUM amount of money that someone can have and will no longer benefit from any gains. Shorts are literally bankrupt from missing out on this recovery.


----------



## Hockey Outsider

Mud the ACAS said:


> If I were to disprove your points, you'd simply argue that I'm cherry-picking, not looking at the whole picture, demand that I make some prediction about specific events, and on and on. In short: you'd simply just keep shifting the goalposts until you got to something that couldn't be proven wrong and then proclaim you were really right on something far-removed from the original point.




If your argument consists of looking at the very top of a bull market, then comparing it to the very bottom of a crash (as you did in post #931 and again in #943) - then yes, that's obviously cherry-picking.

My point was, despite short-term volatility, the stock market rises over the majority of ten-, twenty-, and thirty-year periods. The longer the period, the closer that percentage gets to 100%. I'm not sure how you can accuse of me shifting the goalposts. My position is stated clearly. It's also true - this is obvious to anyone who objectively looks at the data.



Mud the ACAS said:


> See "prove something conclusively, otherwise I'm right" above. However, let's just try "sell when the market drops 20% off a high, wait until the market goes up 20% off a bottom before buying back in." Yeah, you miss rebounds off the very bottom; you also miss some *big* drops off the high. You end up significantly better off than just buying and holding through all the dips.
> 
> I'll leave it to you to do the math.




Have you actually done the math? The strategy you're suggesting isn't new - and it's a bad one. It would have caused you to lose a lot of money over the past forty years. It would have served you well during the 2008 crash (very well, actually) - but you would have lost money during most other market fluctuations from 1980 to present. Overall you would have ended up behind a simple buy-and-hold approach.



Mud the ACAS said:


> See "prove something conclusively, otherwise I'm right" above.




What are you even arguing here? My initial post was advice to someone just entering the workforce (i.e., someone with a 30+ year horizon). Forget the (considerable) volatility in 2020 - are you suggesting that the stock market is likely to be lower in 30 years than it is today? Do you think they'll come out ahead investing in treasuries, which you've mentioned a few times? (Those are currently yielding 1.27% over 30 years - less than inflation).

I'm right because the data conclusively backs my position. (That's in reference to the positions I've actually taken. Not once have I speculated about where the market is headed in the short term. I don't know that - and neither do you, if you're being honest).



Mud the ACAS said:


> This is the "market is always efficient" argument that's been shattered countless times across history, but every time things are going up, up, up its proponents scream _THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!_




Whether the market is efficient is an interesting question (I don't think it's perfectly efficient - so we're in agreement). My point was - if someone has magically found the way to beat the market, I very much doubt they'd publish it for free on the internet.



Mud the ACAS said:


> Sure, it was all the pandemic's fault. Not "companies are obscenely valued while profits are stagnant, debt is increasing, companies are forking over free cash flow to pump up stock prices so that EPS looks better and better to pump up stock prices even more." Not "we're in the 11th year of a bull market now being pumped up by declining interest rates because the Fed believes the economy is simultaneously really strong and too weak to survive even 2.5% interest rates after having near-zero interest rates for nearly 7 years." Not "the bond market is signaling there's an issue as implied yields start to increase for lower-rated debt and investors are seeking safety out on the curve instead of near-term." Not "the Fed suddenly started ramping up repos for allegedly 'everything is fine, this is just a test' reasons which didn't pass the sniff test to anyone who thought more than 2 seconds about it."
> 
> No, it's that goddamn pandemic - _that_ is the only problem. Everything else was perfect!
> 
> The pandemic was the pin that happened to prick the bubble. If it hadn't been the pandemic, it would have been something else - and, based on comments like above, you would have excused it as some freak thing and argued that everything was really fine.




If you're disputing that the stock market plunge was directly caused by fear over the pandemic (and the economic effects of social distancing), I'm not sure what to tell you. Do you not see the cause and effect relationship there?

By the way - I've never argued that "everything was really fine". Not sure if you're confusing me with someone else. What I actually said was, over the long term, the markets will recover from this. If someone had extra cash sitting around, there was a great buying opportunity a few weeks ago. Now that the market has significantly rebounded (it's up approximately 25% in three weeks), I'm no longer convinced that stocks are deeply discounted. If the market dips 20%+ again, I'll revisit that position and will most likely buy more.



Mud the ACAS said:


> Right, let's track it all the way into a market peak where he points out valuations are at all-time highs. That's a great way to measure value. It's as bad as touting all the gains from S&P 676 to S&P 3388, totally ignoring the drop from S&P 1565 to 676, and saying "I'm up 500% over that time, I did so great! It proves everyone should always be in stocks, they never go down!"
> 
> Hussman is up front about his mistake in this. Has been repeatedly. No, we don't know what would have happened had current strategies been in place throughout this bull market. Just like we have no idea what would have happened had Congress not threatened FASB and prompted the suspension of FASB 157, which allows banks and other companies to mark assets that they don't believe the market value of to whatever they want in order to ignore the possibility that they might actually be bankrupt.
> 
> You're using the "he's been wrong, so he can't possibly be right now" fallacy. You should double-double-triple down on all such statements, instead of looking for context and trying to get the full picture. God knows I wouldn't want you and others to admit you might be wrong about what's really going on.




For the record - you were the one who brought up Hussman, not me. It would have been easy for me to pick him as an example of how being consistently bearish on the market will cause you to lose a lot of money over long-run. See the data I already posted - since 2000, the market has more than doubled, while Hussman's fund (designed to track the S&P) lost more than half its value. You would have made more than four times as much money just buying & holding the S&P.

You were free to "look for context and get the full picture" as your account balance shrunk to one-quarter of that of a buy-and-hold investor. Or does an article (interesting as it may be) trump twenty years of empirical evidence?

In fairness - just because Hussman has been consistently wrong for two decades, it doesn't mean that his fall 2019 article is necessarily wrong. That's a fair point. But you're dismissing his poor track record far too casually. I can provide some of his articles from seven or eight years ago - when he did the same thing, claiming a recession's just around the corner and the S&P (which has more than doubled since then) was "overvalued, overbought, overbullish". That's his shtick - he's been bearish since the turn of the century. He'll eventually be right through chance alone.

For the record - I posted the complete history of his fund from its inception (July 2000) to present. I'm not cherry-picking anything, I'm showing all the data that exists. In that period there have been three significant (>30%) market corrections, so it's not like this bearish investor never had a chance to be right. He was right some of the time - it's just that, he missed out on so much growth in the years that he was wrong, that he lost a lot of money overall.

Ultimately, if you're trying to convince me (or other people) to ignore some very basic principles (such as, the market will rise over the long-term), you're going to have to do better than some cherry-picked numbers and one article from a fund manager who has been spectacularly wrong over the past 20 years.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Update: I am still Literally Rich because I did not short the market like doomsday nerds. They were right about a doomsday scenario, but they brought it upon themselves by missing out on these explosive gains. 

*BUT MUH LAYOFFS *

*BUT MUH TREASURIES *

*BUT MUH 2008 CRASH *

*BUT MUH HUSSMAN *

Enjoy being literally bankrupt!


----------



## lukester

Wti crude at 12$ a barrel currently!


----------



## Stuzchuk

lukester said:


> Wti crude at 12$ a barrel currently!



Now negative 40$... WTF is going right now??


----------



## Thucydides

Insanity ! I never thought I’d see the day! 
Oil is -36 a barrel. First time it’s ever traded in the negative . 

Not an oil guy , but can one buy a barrel of oil electronically ? If so, I think you’d make a ton of $$$


----------



## Stuzchuk

halincandenza said:


> Insanity ! I never thought I’d see the day!
> Oil is -36 a barrel. First time it’s ever traded in the negative .
> 
> Not an oil guy , but can one buy a barrel of oil electronically ? If so, I think you’d make a ton of $$$



a friend of mine just purchased 650$ worth of shares, that were worth 88$ in 2018 but that have plummeted to 3.05$ today


----------



## Hammettf2b

Staying away from purchasing anything oil related right now. There's companies who aren't going to make it because of this. I don't want to risk money based on a guess.


----------



## A1LeafNation

If Oil companies go down what does that mean for the American economy?


----------



## hitman9172

As long as you have an emergency fund and can keep your job through this recession, now is a great buying opportunity if you're still accumulating (i.e., buying more stocks than selling). Even if the market goes down another 20, 30, 40% from today, just keep buying on the down, because it's *likely *that the stock market will be _much _higher 10, 20, 30 years from now. Buy low-cost, diversified index funds and you'll turn out fine.

During bad times, I like to read this article about the World's Worst Market Timer, i..e, a hypothetical investor who only invested immediately before past market crashes and still turned out OK: What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense

As John Bogle said, it's _time in _the market that matters, not _timing_ the market. Be patient and stay the course.


----------



## The Crypto Guy

hitman9172 said:


> As long as you have an emergency fund and can keep your job through this recession, now is a great buying opportunity if you're still accumulating (i.e., buying more stocks than selling). Even if the market goes down another 20, 30, 40% from today, just keep buying on the down, because it's likely that the stock market will be _much _higher 10, 20, 30 years from now. *Buy low-cost, diversified index funds and you'll turn out fine.*
> 
> During bad times, I like to read this article about the World's Worst Market Timer, i..e, a hypothetical investor who only invested immediately before past market crashes and still turned out OK: What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
> 
> As John Bogle said, it's _time in _the market that matters, not _timing_ the market. Be patient and stay the course.





Recommendations?


----------



## hitman9172

The Crypto Guy said:


> Recommendations?




I personally like Vanguard and BMO ETF products because of their low Management Expense Ratios. For a Canadian investor, these are good options:

Canadian stocks:
VCN (Vanguard TSX/S&P index) 
XIC (BMO TSX/S&P index)

International stocks:
VXC (Vanguard ex-Canada stocks)
XAW (BMO ex-Canada stocks)
VFV (Vanguard S&P 500 (American) stocks)

Canadian bonds:
VAB


----------



## Pengwins

anyone investing in airlines now?


----------



## The Real JT

Pengwins said:


> anyone investing in airlines now?




My Uncle Sam now has a piece as a part of the CARES act.
The airlines received less in the way of grants and unattached $ than they hoped for.
Looks like a risky play to me.


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Dang, I wish I had listened to the doomsday nerds and missed out on this beautiful 30% rally. Don't worry guys, I'm sure the Salt & Pepper 500 will fall to 1250 any day now.






...........................................................................................


----------



## Michigan

Jiminy Cricket said:


> Dang, I wish I had listened to the doomsday nerds and missed out on this beautiful 30% rally. Don't worry guys, I'm sure the Salt & Pepper 500 will fall to 1250 any day now. ...



I know you're j/k, but I doubt it. It's on pace for the best month since 74.


----------



## John Price

news of a potential drug treatment and the markets rose today


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

*IMAGINE MISSING OUT ON AN HISTORIC 33% RALLY OVER THE LAST 2 MONTHS BECAUSE YOU WERE BUSY PANICKING AND WRITING ANGRY LETTERS ON HFBOARD`S *

*THE ANCONOMY IS BOOMING!!! *


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

Imagine stockpiling cash and being left in the dust while it rots away LMAO.

*#CashIsTrash *


----------



## Jiminy Cricket

*We are approaching all-time highs as Doomsday Nerds frantically shuffle through their notes trying to figure out what went wrong.*


----------



## Thucydides

I made a killing on VUN.to and Beyond Meat during the last tank. 

Beyond meat was 55 bucks. Today it hits $150 - nearly a triple. 

VUN.to index fund bought @ 43 , 44, 45 , and 46 dollar range - down today to 56 but last week it was @ 59.00. 

I think we might be due for another correction here & another buying opportunity possibly in the next month or so. 

How did everyone do from March until now ? Any good wins ?


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

halincandenza said:


> I made a killing on VUN.to and Beyond Meat during the last tank.
> 
> Beyond meat was 55 bucks. Today it hits $150 - nearly a triple.
> 
> VUN.to index fund bought @ 43 , 44, 45 , and 46 dollar range - down today to 56 but last week it was @ 59.00.
> 
> I think we might be due for another correction here & another buying opportunity possibly in the next month or so.
> 
> How did everyone do from March until now ? Any good wins ?



BYND was on my watchlist, but I never put anything. Even with the crash, I didn't think it would go up so much considering it had been going down since last summer.  I'm up about 25% overall since March, could have done much better, but I'll take it as a newbie.


----------



## Bruins4Lifer

halincandenza said:


> I made a killing on VUN.to and Beyond Meat during the last tank.
> 
> Beyond meat was 55 bucks. Today it hits $150 - nearly a triple.
> 
> VUN.to index fund bought @ 43 , 44, 45 , and 46 dollar range - down today to 56 but last week it was @ 59.00.
> 
> I think we might be due for another correction here & another buying opportunity possibly in the next month or so.
> 
> How did everyone do from March until now ? Any good wins ?



XEG was doing really well for me until the big drop last week. Still up close to 40% on it since I bought in March. Will keep holding like I planned to for another year or two.


----------



## Thucydides

Bruins4Lifer said:


> XEG was doing really well for me until the big drop last week. Still up close to 40% on it since I bought in March. Will keep holding like I planned to for another year or two.




great job. 40% is killer. If XEG goes back to its highs and you hold, that will be a good tripling of your money. Gotta love it. Hold long and prosper! 
Looks like that stock is still a good buy, too.


----------



## BahlDeep

That's why you don't try and time the market.

@Mud the ACAS you still in cash bro?


----------



## Hockey Outsider

I went through my investment returns tonight. Looking at what I invested throughout the month of March, I'm up 18%. If I back out my normal investment contributions (and look only at the extra cash I moved in because I sensed an opportunity), it's 21%. I'm not going to post the stocks/ETFs individually - they're not that exciting. No grand slams, no strikeouts, but a lot of singles and doubles.

Of course, the S&P is up 39% since the absolute bottom. So, in that sense, I could have done better - if I was able to predict the nadir. But (as I said again and again in my previous posts), nobody can time the market perfectly. Obviously I'm glad I made 21% in three months, rather than sitting in cash. In fact, here's what I posted on April 4th (post #941):

"I also know people who missed out on years' worth of gains because they kept "waiting for the bottom" in 2008. That’s the thing – nobody knows where the market is going. If someone has a chunk of cash I definitely wouldn’t suggest going all-in today, but I also wouldn’t suggest keeping it all in cash and waiting for a bigger drop that might never come."

I'll repeat what I said before. I have no idea where the market goes from here. There will be another correction sooner or later - maybe it's next week, maybe it's three years from now. Whenever that happens, I'll use my cash reserves to buy more. Until then, I'll enjoy the gains. Cheers to those who took the plunge in March.


----------



## EXTRAS

What does everyone think of the nikola truck company?


----------



## Zaiden Shogun

EXTRAS said:


> What does everyone think of the nikola truck company?



i'm sad i didn't get in before the merger with VTIQ, but I have no idea what it does going forward since I didn't do any fundamental research on it


----------



## PatrikBerglund

Thoughts on Tesla? Too late to join the party?


----------



## Thucydides

PatrikBerglund said:


> Thoughts on Tesla? Too late to join the party?




everyone said it was too late to join @ 100 bucks.


----------



## Dakota Sioux

Bitcoin taking off again. Glad I bought when I did


----------

