What Dallas is generating is not the point here. It is how the Avs are attacking, which is volume shots and staying to the outside without creating enough high danger chances. That is what you can't get around... ~65 CF and ~11HDCF around the same split as Carolina averages (70/12.5). it is actually a bit worse of a split.Dallas are actually generating the least amount of high danger chances in the league this round.
Again you cannot say that this is what Carolina does as they have never actually done it over a series. I’m all for various opinions but this is just factually incorrect & it is not the Avs problem. If it was the Avs problem their regular corsi percentage would be much higher than their high danger corsi, the exact opposite of that is true where the Avs advantage in high danger chances is greater than their advantage in all shots
Yup, we can nit pick what’s going wrong, who’s not playing well etc…the biggest thing IMO is the will and the hunger to win. One team has it, the other one is playing like they’ve already won one recently.As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.
That's why they call me Mr RightAs others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.
Dallas’ generation absolutely matters, if you are generating many more high danger chances than your opponent is than high danger chances are not your teams problem and there are zero arguments to suggest otherwise.What Dallas is generating is not the point here. It is how the Avs are attacking, which is volume shots and staying to the outside without creating enough high danger chances. That is what you can't get around... ~65 CF and ~11HDCF around the same split as Carolina averages (70/12.5). it is actually a bit worse of a split.
Saying that, the 22 Rangers series is really not far off from what is happening here if you want to focus on the splits. They went 5v5 54, 60, 68, 61, 69, and 59% HDCF. All situations 54, 56, 63, 50, 64, 67, and 61%. They lost that series in 7.
The defense is not what is being stated. It is how the Avs are attacking. They are generating a relatively few amount of high danger chances compared to the amount of attempts. To state that high danger chance generation is not a problem is incredibly misguided. To win 3/4, the Avs are going to have to put up 14-17 consistently. Maybe you squeak through a game, but 3 of 4 is a tall order unless you generate more chances.Dallas’ generation absolutely matters, if you are generating many more high danger chances than your opponent is than high danger chances are not your teams problem and there are zero arguments to suggest otherwise.
If the Avs had noticeably more high danger chances created through these 3 games (let’s say 2 more per game) they would have one of the most lopsided series in hockey history, asking for that is lunacy against an opponent like Dallas who is very good.
If the Avs were shooting from everywhere and not generating high danger chances compared to their opponent you would expect a corsi percentage in the 60% and a high danger percentage closer to 50% (this is what is happening in the Carolina series for example and it’s what happened to them against Florida last year as well). For the Avs the exact opposite is true where their advantage in high danger chances is probably the thing they are doing the best
As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.
There will be no saving Messiah's on this Avalanche run...... They are going to have to do it with the players they already in the line up.The return of Jonathan Drouin would do wonders for this team because he can make plays with very little space given to him and is one of the few forwards up the top six who has dogged hounding tactics.
I worry he won't be available until the 4 week mark at the earliest.
Very well stated. There is no sustained Av offensive pressure. There are no 2nd shot opportunities being generated. Loose pucks are being cleared, access to rebounds are being denied., Avs are either not in position to regain possession or are being interfered with enough to make them be late to the puck.Yeah, the results of my personal eye test were the same. Avs tried again and again and again to pass through Dallas's neutral zone setup, and one of the few times they succeeded was Nichushkin's cross-ice pass to a streaking Toews, which eventually led to the goal. When the Avs did get into the zone, they were generally unable to sustain pressure or get to rebounds since Dallas was great at tying up sticks and not giving the Avs time to make a play. For me, this was starkly evident during the Stars' penalty kills—they really pressed the Avs at every opportunity and did not give them time to set up (contrast to the passive PK strategy of the Avs), which left them vulnerable to a 3-or-4-pass plays that we were unfortunately unable to execute, since pucks were dying on Rantanen's and Lekhonen's stick.
The fact that the expected goal numbers tilt so heavily to the Avs does give me pause though and makes me wonder whether my eyes were betraying me. Maybe it's that Oettinger looks so calm and controlled in the net that whatever marginal 0.05 or 0.1 xG that a normal shot or "normal" (non-high-danger) scoring chance generates feels more like 0.01 to the eye?
It's not even about hybrid making them guess. If you get pucks into corners and win battles, chances naturally will come.I have said that a few times in the past.....It doesn't matter if your system uses zone entry with possession or dump and chase. If your system uses one exclusively you will get figured out by decent coaches. You absolutely need to use a hybrid version. You can go 65-35% with one over the other but it cannot be 90-10%. That is one of the problems here against Dallas. The Avs persist to use zone entry with possession and Dallas are just waiting for them giving them the outside and blocking the middle. It is up to the players to realize when to switch it up depending of where Dallas' players are relative to their blue line and how fast they are backing up. Start using a hybrid system and the opponent will start double guessing your intentions which in turn will open up their defensive system. The Avs are just too predictable right now.
But it is. If you continuously put pucks into the corners the dmen will cheat by backing up a bit more than usual and therefore getting to pucks first. You absolutely need to switch it up. Like I said your system can be built more towards one than the other but it cannot be mostly one. I would argue that 65-35% is the max.It's not even about hybrid making them guess. If you get pucks into corners and win battles, chances naturally will come.
I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying dump and chase is proven to work in the playoffs yet the Avs refuse it despite having the perfect personnel to play it and bully the Stars.But it is. If you continuously put pucks into the corners the dmen will cheat by backing up a bit more than usual and therefore getting to pucks first. You absolutely need to switch it up. Like I said your system can be built more towards one than the other but it cannot be mostly one. I would argue that 65-35% is the max.
Avs should have been up 3-0 after the 1st last night.Game 1
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Game 2
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Game 3
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These match the eye test to me. We are actually unlucky to be 1-2 down in the series. I'm surprised last night's is so high as we were very out of sync all night. But we had the zone time, we had the possession and the share of shots you'd expect to lead to a win.
<\3You somehow think the Stars deserved to win game 1. That's all I need to know.
This. Don’t kid yourselves folks the only time the Avs have looked”good” is due to score effectsHow much of this was because Dallas was turtling though?
The game 1 OT win was a photocopy of the game 2 vs Vegas.As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.
Tough to teach guys in their mid 20s how to dump and chase and go to the net. Not like it’s rocket appliances Bednar himself was a zero skill dude you think he’s telling them to play perimeter hockey and pass the puck into the net?The game 1 OT win was a photocopy of the game 2 vs Vegas.
We all knew this was coming. It's nothing to do with MacK being content. It's just not him to change up his game. And it's not Bednar to change tactics. A good team with a coach willing to adapt has always been lights out for the Avs.
I fear the fires lit across the pacific northwest will greatly accelerate global warming when they loose to Miami.Even worse than Edmonton or Dallas to the Finals would be Vancouver... that fanbase.
Even if the Avs lose a close one, I'd at least hope someone beats the breaks off Jamie Benn. Either Trenin or Manson...the doom and gloom in here is pretty amusing for being down 2-1 in what's been a very even series.
did you think we were only going to lose 1 game? Did you think we'd never be trailing in a series again in the playoffs?
I get there are frustrations but it's playoffs and that's part of it. Lessons to be learned and now it's how to respond. Outside of execution and a stubbornness against dump and chase hockey, the Avs played very well last game. Urgency rises with every loss and Drouin is returning
Have some faith in your team. I guess you don't understand how this universe works. We all play a part in the outcome but we have to collectively envision them winning and believe in their abilities.
No to mention MacKinnon missing a wide open net on the PP. As Bednar said, the game was lost because of missed opportunities early.The last game, while disappointing, was still very close. Val hit the post, and I think it was Girard who had a golden opportunity in the 3rd. If they score on those plays, Avs probably win. They gotta win game 4, but this series is still up for grabs.