Your resident Nostradamus is back with his annual playoff predictions.
Last year I went a combined 9-6 throughout the playoffs. Not bad at all. Most of those incorrect picks came from underrating the Stars through the playoffs.
This year is going to be even tougher with how close the teams were to each other this year.
THE EAST
1.New York Rangers vs. 8. Toronto Maple Leafs Tale of the Tape:
New York Rangers
Record: 43-29-10-3
Goals For: 257
Goals Against: 216
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 13.2/82.0%
Top Scorer: Ilya Kovalchuk - 74 points
Toronto Maple Leafs
Record: 37 - 31 - 14 - 1
Goals For: 224
Goals Against: 226
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 12.1/88.4%
Top Scorer: Mats Sundin - 78 points Season Series: 1-1
Rangers 3, Leafs 2
Leafs 4, Rangers 3 Keys to Success:
The Rangers could have their hands full with this 8th seed. The Leafs were up near the top of the Conference for the first half of the year until a poor second half dropped them. The Rangers have the best offense in the Eastern Conference, so they are going to have to continue to light the lamp. They also are going to need a bigger and better effort from their special teams, whom struggled all year. Coach Scotty Bowman once said that a team won't win the Cup unless their special teams rank in the top 5 of the league. Luckily for the Rangers, the Leafs don't have that strong of a powerplay, and they also don't take a lot of penalties in the first place. This series is likely to be one playing 5 on 5, which means the Leafs are going to need a big effort from Tomas Vokoun and they are also going to have to go hard at Tim Thomas, getting bodies in front of the net. The Prediction:
New York Rangers in 6
While the season series was relatively close, I just can't see the Leafs being able to hold down the Rangers offense in a seven game series. The Leafs may have been the perfect opponent for the Rangers in the sense that their powerplay has struggled so much. I think the series ends up being close, but the Rangers come out in the end.
2. Florida Panthers vs. 7. Ottawa Senators Tale of the Tape:
Florida Panthers
Record: 42-30-10-3
Goals For: 245
Goals Against: 204
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.7/88.8%
Top Scorer: Shane Doan - 76 points
Ottawa Senators
Record: 39 - 34 - 9 - 2
Goals For: 247
Goals Against: 205
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 16.4/88.4%
Top Scorer: Henrik Zetterberg - 77 points Season Series: 2-0 Senators
Panthers 1, Senators 4
Senators 3, Panthers 1 Keys to Success:
I think it's safe to say that this is the match up Panthers General Manager Brock Otten didn't want. These teams match up very well with each other, with the Senators coming out on top both times in the regular season. Both teams have outstanding penalty killing units, which means the team that wins this series could be the team whose powerplay steps up big. The Panthers have also had a very tough time beating Roberto Luongo this year, meaning that Chris Mason is going to have to step up his game. For the Senators, they need to snap out of a funk which saw them lose their final 5 games of the season. The Prediction:
Ottawa Senators in 7
The Senators have had the Panthers number this year and with Roberto Luongo manning the pipes, goals could be hard to come by for the Panthers. I like this series to be very close, but goaltending will ultimately be the deciding factor.
3. Boston Bruins vs. 6. Buffalo Sabres Tale of the Tape:
Boston Bruins
Record: 41-32-9-4
Goals For: 240
Goals Against: 217
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.6/86.0%
Top Scorer: Mikko Koivu - 80 points
Buffalo Sabres
Record: 40 - 35 - 7 - 2
Goals For: 254
Goals Against: 257
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 15.2/83.1%
Top Scorer: Alex Frolov - 72 points Season Series: Tied 3-3
Sabres 1, Bruins 5
Sabres 2, Bruins 4
Bruins 3, Sabres 5
Sabres 3, Bruins 2
Bruins 6, Sabres 0
Bruins 2, Sabres 5 Keys to Success:
During the regular season, these division rivals went back and forth, although the Sabres took 4 of the last 6 meetings. The Sabres are entering the playoffs after having a phenomenal last month to surge into the playoffs after underachieving all season long. The key to this series is likely goaltending and defense. The Sabres have one of the most potent offenses in the league, but Ryan Miller has been shaky all season long. Meanwhile, Manny Legace has been relatively consistent in his play and is going to need to come up large again to stop the Sabres offense. The Bruins will also need to capitalize on their powerplay opportunities against a weak penalty kill unit. The Prediction:
Buffalo Sabres in 6
I like the Sabres to keep rolling into the playoffs, knocking off the pesky Bruins. I think the Sabres offense is blossoming at just the right time.
4. New Jersey Devils vs. 5. Philadelphia Flyers Tale of the Tape:
New Jersey Devils
Record: 41-34-7-2
Goals For: 242
Goals Against: 229
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 15.0/87.5%
Top Scorer: Marian Gaborik - 74 points
Philadelphia Flyers
Record: 38 - 34 - 10 - 5
Goals For: 241
Goals Against: 213
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.7/85.1%
Top Scorer: Alexei Kovalev - 73 points Season Series: 3-2-1 New Jersey
Flyers 1, Devils 3
Flyers 2, Devils 2
Flyers 3, Devils 4
Devils 2, Flyers 6
Devils 3, Flyers 2
Devils 3, Flyers 5 Keys to Success:
Another season series that was very close and back and forth. These teams match up pretty well, with the Flyers having a slightly better team defense. The Flyers are going to need to continue to play in your face hockey, being one of the most aggressive teams in the league. However they will need to play aggressive without taking penalties. They are also going to need to get more consistent goaltending out of Cristobal Huet. The Devils are going to have to tighten up their defense and get a better effort from Marc Andre Fleury, who's had a very average year. The Prediction:
Philadelphia Flyers in 6
I really like the deadline acquisitions the Flyers made to push them over the top in this series, which is bound to be close. They really added another level to their offensive ability, which may be a tad much for Fleury to handle at this point in his career.
THE West
1. St. Louis Blues vs. 8. San Jose Sharks Tale of the Tape:
St. Louis Blues
Record: 40-29-13-1
Goals For: 277
Goals Against: 208
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.8/87.9%
Top Scorer: Daniel Alfredsson - 85 points
San Jose Sharks
Record: 40 - 34 - 8 - 3
Goals For: 249
Goals Against: 213
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 12.1/87.0%
Top Scorer: Mark Recchi - 75 points Season Series: St. Louis Blues 1-0-1
Sharks 1, Blues 4
Blues 5, Sharks 5 Keys to Success:
Do I really need to make the Blues losing in the first round joke? The Blues roared to a third straight President's Trophy. And they've been eliminated in the first round both years. So what do they have to do differently this year? They need to overcome a team that plays solid team defense in San Jose, by pouring on the shots and taking the body. They had no trouble scoring against the Sharks in the regular season with 9 goals in 2 games. In order to upset the Blues, the Sharks have to try and stop their offense. They also have to step up their powerplay production. The Blues can tend to take a lot of penalties, so the Sharks gotta be ready to pounce on the opportunity to score. The Prediction:
St. Louis Blues in 6
I just can't do it. I can't predict a loss here. Does the Sim really hate the Blues that much? No offense to the Sharks, but the Blues are the better team here and they have the ability to steamroll right through to the next round.
2. Colorado Avalanche vs. 7. Nashville Predators Tale of the Tape:
Colorado Avalanche
Record: 46-27-9-4
Goals For: 260
Goals Against: 193
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 16.0/86.4%
Top Scorer: Michael Nylander - 77 points
Nashville Predators
Record: 40 - 33 - 9 - 3
Goals For: 257
Goals Against: 246
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.1/83.2%
Top Scorer: Rick Nash - 79 points Season Series: Nashville Predators 2-0
Avalanche 3, Predators 4
Predators 4, Avalanche 3 Keys to Success:
The Preds took the season series 2-0 and come into the playoffs riding a high. They are a very streaky team, so it remains to be seen how they will perform in their first playoffs under Gm Tony Kay. The Avs have to be the favourites still, being the second best scoring team and the best defensive team in the league. They just need to stay strong and play hard. They will need to continue to get strong goaltending from J.S. Giguere, considering a strong Predators offense. The Predators need to stay out of the box, plain and simple. The Avs have one of the best powerplays in the league, the Preds a poor penalty killing unit. In order to upset the Avs, they are going to need to play disciplined hockey. The Prediction:
Colorado Avalanche in 7
The Avalanche, despite losing the season series, are just too strong, in my opinion. They are solid in nearly every area.
3. Dallas Stars vs. 6. Columbus Blue Jackets Tale of the Tape:
Dallas Stars
Record: 45-28-9-0
Goals For: 257
Goals Against: 232
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 17.2/87.8%
Top Scorer: Jonathan Toews - 76 points
Columbus Blue Jackets
Record: 40 - 35 - 7 - 5
Goals For: 250
Goals Against: 230
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 14.0/87.5%
Top Scorer: Olli Jokinen - 81 points Season Series: Tied 1-1
Stars 1, Jackets 2
Jackets 4, Stars 6 Keys to Success:
These teams haven't met since the very beginning of the 2008-09 season, so the first few games will be spent feeling each other out. They actually match up fairly well with each other. They both can score goals, but have some trouble keeping pucks out. They both have solid penalty kill units, with the Stars having the stronger powerplay. The key for the Stars is for Kipper to step up and continue to play as he has all season. They also need to be more disciplined. Taking 15.6 penalty minutes in the playoffs ain't going to cut it. The Jackets are going to need to stay out of the box too since the Stars powerplay is so strong. They will also need a very strong effort from Martin Gerber in net, who has exceeded expectations this season. The Prediction:
3. Dallas Stars in 6
While these teams match up well, I think the difference is goaltending where Kipper has the advantage and the ability to steal this series for the Stars.
4. Vancouver Canucks vs. 5. Edmonton Oilers Tale of the Tape:
Vancouver Canucks
Record: 42-32-8-4
Goals For: 249
Goals Against: 193
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 13.8/88.3%
Top Scorer: Evgeni Malkin - 78 points
Edmonton Oilers
Record: 42 - 33 - 7 - 1
Goals For: 258
Goals Against: 252
Power Play/Penalty Kill: 18.1/86.9%
Top Scorer: Ales Hemsky - 83 points Season Series: Vancouver Canucks 4-2
Canucks 3, Oilers 6
Canucks 6, Oilers 1
Canucks 5, Oilers 1
Oilers 2, Canucks 4
Oilers 0, Canucks 9
Oilers 5, Canucks 1 Keys to Success:
Two teams headed in somewhat opposite directions, the Canucks seemingly unstoppable since the Joe Sakic trade, the Oilers mired in a huge slump that saw them almost miss the playoffs. The Canucks largely dominated the season series too. Vancouver is a team that needs to continue to play strong defense to win hockey games since their offense has been generally underperforming this season. The Oilers, well they have to start playing strong defense if they want to win this series. The Canucks also have to stay out of the penalty box, since the Oilers powerplay is so strong. The Prediction:
Vancouver Canucks in 5
I think this may be the biggest mismatch of the playoffs in round 1. I don't see the Canucks having any trouble here.
Honestly, I just feel like going away and getting a call when my season is over. But like a bad car wreck, I'll be there to watch from the start, right to the bitter end (usually sooner than later).
Honestly, I just feel like going away and getting a call when my season is over. But like a bad car wreck, I'll be there to watch from the start, right to the bitter end (usually sooner than later).
Once more into the breach, my friends, once more.
... or close the wall up with your St. Louis dead?
The fact that an early demise has been predicted for my Bruins is a good sign. In years past when a solid run was expected, our hopes were usually dashed by a weaker foe that had the power of SIMskull behind them. Of course a year's hiatus from the playoffs may have put the SIM gods back in Beantowns corner...here's hoping anyway.
I can actually see your Bruins making it to the final 4, Rob. But then my predictions are a bit nuts:
(1) NYR vs (8) WAS - NYR in 5 games -- Rangers take it quickly, barring more injuries up front
(2) FLA vs (7) OTT - OTT in 7 games -- Luongo the difference
(3) BOS vs (6) BUF - BOS in 6 games -- Bruins should take it in 5 but Sabres are hot
(4) NJD vs (5) PHI - NJD in 6 games -- Devils' more experienced defence bails out Fleury
(1) STL vs (8) SJS - STL in 6 games -- Blues overcome questionable goaltending
(2) COL vs (7) NAS - COL in 5 games -- Avs simply too strong
(3) DAL vs (6) CBJ - CBJ in 7 games -- very evenly matched, can't bet against my own team!
(4) VAN vs (5) EDM - VAN in 4 games -- two teams heading in opposite directions
I hope I do make it out of the first round, I seem to have the Blues' number lately.
For the record, my predictions have VAN beating NYR for the Stanley Cup.
I can actually see your Bruins making it to the final 4, Rob. But then my predictions are a bit nuts:
(1) NYR vs (8) WAS - NYR in 5 games -- Rangers take it quickly, barring more injuries up front
(2) FLA vs (7) OTT - OTT in 7 games -- Luongo the difference
(3) BOS vs (6) BUF - BOS in 6 games -- Bruins should take it in 5 but Sabres are hot
(4) NJD vs (5) PHI - NJD in 6 games -- Devils' more experienced defence bails out Fleury
(1) STL vs (8) SJS - STL in 6 games -- Blues overcome questionable goaltending
(2) COL vs (7) NAS - COL in 5 games -- Avs simply too strong
(3) DAL vs (6) CBJ - CBJ in 7 games -- very evenly matched, can't bet against my own team!
(4) VAN vs (5) EDM - VAN in 4 games -- two teams heading in opposite directions
I hope I do make it out of the first round, I seem to have the Blues' number lately.
For the record, my predictions have VAN beating NYR for the Stanley Cup.
(3) DAL vs (6) CBJ - CBJ in 7 games -- very evenly matched, can't bet against my own team!
Come onnnnn...you know you want to!
Honestly...my team has been running around with a Clydesdale's horseshoe shoved up their A**s the the last two years...it's got to fall out sooner or later.
However, the physical nature of the playoffs seems to lend it's self to the players on my roster.
Not a good start for you...just 1-2 so far. Glad I disappointed.
I may have had the toughest 5 game series ever....I don't know if it has ever happened where a team has won this quickly despite being outscored for the series. I won every game by 1 goal, and Claudio outscored me by 5 in the game he won, so I was outscored 13 - 12.
I'm sure I'll have more to say later, but for now, I'd just like to say: bloody hell. *grumble grumble*
Terrific job, Laurens! If my team can't score on 7 powerplays in a must-win game, you must be doing something right. Congratulations, and good luck in your drive to repeat as Champions.
In an ironic twist on the Columbus Blue Jackets' fortunes this season, it was the players they let get away that came back to haunt them. Seven of the Dallas Stars' players are former Jackets, and they played pivotal roles throughout the series, especially in the final game, last night's 3-2 overtime loss that put an early end to the Jackets' hopes of returning to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Mark Parrish, Christian Ehrhoff, Brian Pothier, Chris Kelly, Chris Neil, Jim Vandermeer and Roman Hamrlik are all former Blue Jackets, and all were significant contributors to the Stars' 5-game series victory.
Parrish and Ehrhoff tied (with Michel Ouellet) for the team lead in scoring with 5 points. Pothier, Kelly and Neil each had 3 points. Hamrlik had one point and was one of the few minuses on the team, but was a physical presence with 14 hits. And Vandermeer, who also had a physical series, saved the best for last when he contributed his two points, both assists, in the final game, including the primary assist on Scottie Upshall's overtime winner.
"We're glad for these guys to see them succeeding," said Blue Jackets coach Mike Babcock following the game, "although we certainly would have preferred their success came at another team's expense... Coudl their understanding of our game have helped Dallas? Maybe, but I don't know, because we're a very different team than we were last year, different even than the start of the season, so I'm not sure how much that would have helped them. Certainly some of them were with us during our run to the Stanley Cup Finals a few years back, and that kind of experience would help any team."
Babcock was asked if pre-playoff projections that the series would be closer were way off base. "I don't think so," he replied. "Our guys battled hard, taking two of the five games to overtime. A bounce here or there and we're heading home with a 3-2 series lead. Sometimes that's just they way things are in the playoffs. I'm proud of our guys - they worked hard and left it all on the ice. We got a little away from our game plan, and that's something we'll work on in training camp, but for such a young team I thought we showed a lot of moxie in making the playoffs at all. We can be proud of how we played. Disappointed at the results, absolutely - our fans deserved better. But proud of how we worked."
Jackets GM Doug Emerson echoed his coach's comments. "This was a rebuilding year for us. We let a lot of our veteran presence go, and we knew going into the post-season that would be tough. But getting back into the playoffs was a step in the right direction, as was seeing the play of the young guys. (Dustin) Penner, (Nikolai) Zherdev, (Steve) Bernier, (Dan) Fritsche - these guys led the offence for us, including in the last game, and that's a good sign for the future of this franchise. Our focus next year will be continuing to help those young players develop, and bringing in the pieces to support them so that we get back to the playoffs in 2010 and go deeper."
Top-line center Olli Jokinen, among the league scoring leaders during the regular season, was held to just two points in the series. "I'm immensely frustrated," he told reporters. "I feel I let us down, I should have been able to do more. This is not a good feeling. We have to come back strong next year. I will prove to my teammates, to our fans, that I can be an impact player in the post-season."
Jackets goalie Martin Gerber had an up-and-down series. He posted one shutout (the Jackets lone victory, in game #3), but let in three or more goals in the rest of the games to post an ugly 3.42 gaa and an .896 save%, facing an average of 36 shots a game.
"That's too many shots," Captain Keith Carney explained. "We didn't do the things we need to do to help Marty (Gerber). "He did his best, but we kinda hung him out to dry. We weren't closing off the lanes, we weren't clearing rebounds, we weren't moving the puck out of the zone. That's on all of us."
The Jackets will have a lot of lessons to carry away from this series, and now they've got a long (too long) summer to think about them. With a largely returning cast next year, they'll hopefully be able to take the next step.
For now the focus turns to off-season activity, with next month's HFNHL Entry Draft the first order of priority. Columbus holds 7 picks in the draft, including the 22nd overall selection, thanks to a couple of late-season victories that dropped them several slots down the draft order.
With a deep prospect pool, and a couple of notable prospects ready to join the big club next year (Nikolai Kulemin, Simyon Varlamov and possibly Max Pacioretty), the Jackets will likely continue their policy of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.
"Seriously, you're asking me about the draft?," Emerson exclaimed. "We lost our final playoff game about 40 minutes ago. It's the middle of May. Let us focus on this right now, and then we'll go away and regroup with our scouts and determine what our plan is going to be. The draft is a month and a half away, I'm sure we'll have lots of time to talk with you about it between now and then. Tonight I just want to focus on the great effort we got from our guys this season, in an incredibly tight race, and let them take away the good things they did this year.
"That, and our commitment to do better for our fans in Ohio next season."
Seeing the looks on the faces in the visitors' dressing room as they packed up their gear for the last time, you can almost believe it.
Milo Minderbinder
Columbus Discoverer
Last edited by Ohio Jones: 05-16-2009 at 11:24 PM.
J/K. Nice work. Great read.
