It does seem to be a very good high/prep school crop this year...the central scouting final rankings do have some questionable differential "gap" issues that are head scratching...
You have guys like Kreider,Budish ,Leddy who should go 1st round and Hanowski probably early 2nd but possibly still late first to some team...
Then to rank Marshall Everson as a 7th rounder at #181 N.A. skater (down from 123 at mid-term) seems totally misplaced given his buzz as a top ten Minnesota high schooler for the draft and the numbers he did put up...this seems way too big a gap to me unless there is some serious skating speed issue.
In between there are some high schoolers you could argue are also too underranked by Central Scouting.
Now-I have not seen any of these high schoolers play -CSS has--but it does seem to me that based on possibly 4 of them going first round (even 3 if Hanowski is early 2nd) that the whole bell curve for high schoolers this year ought to be upranked over some prior drafts...Also judging the quality from what I have read in reports..that it is a very good crop this year.
Thus it seems to me -looking at several of the CHL juniors I see ranked for 2nd and 3rd rounder possibilities -many of whom I have seen and saw nothing special--that CSS had some difficulty trying to place the high schoolers in context rankig this year...that is a philsophical issue of the lower competition level for high schoolers vs. top Jr. leagues
against the issue that the high school talent pool this year may be stronger thn normal.
Thus improper rankings and too wide gap differential rankings..
This is a hunch on my part --but I do note that in the Minnesota State Championsips Everson (playing in a higher level division) had just as many goals as Hanowski...so I question their wide gap in ranking,and I suspect many similar mistakes.
You could argue that several high schoolers they have as 4th and 5th rounders could easily be upranked 30-60 spots and be equal or better to guys ranked there just based on talent...that they are not s based on the competition level bias against high school players in general..but if this year's crop is better than normal -thise kids ought to be ranked higher and not held down by such bias.
Of course picking in the draft is a crap shoot in general..so the scouts figure a kid who plays better competition in junior and a much longer schedule is a better bet to make it all the way to pro..so the tendancy is to risk on most h.s. kids later where if they never make it at least it only cost you a late round pick.
Of course some NHL teams will sometimes surprise and
take a h.s. kid well above his consensus ranking...9Blake Whheler at #4 overall was such a conviction--though it eventuall back-fired onPHX when they could not sign him--now he strsin BOS)...but even back in that draft it would have astoundedmost NHL G.M.'s to think there were 3 maybe 4 high schoolers worthy of a first round pick as might happen this draft.
My point is that this may be a better deeper high school draft crop than we have seen in some time and if so teams probably should upgrade some of the rankings of high schoolers when comparing to the Central Scouting list.
My hunch is that the CHL crop this year is not as deep as usual,that the Swedish euro crop is deeper than normal but otherwise the euro crop is not that deep,that the American crop from highschool and the USNTDP is deeper than normal ..if I am right--then some of those American kids will go higher than the CSS is ranking them.
I'm not sure about Kreider, but Leddy, Budish, and Hanowski all turned down the opportunity to play in the NTDP or the USHL this season. There'll always be a few high school stars who decide to stay close to home, but it's more of just an odd occurance this year. Otherwise, those other leagues would be getting credit for these exact players.
Everson was passed over in the draft last year, but remember that he's going to play for Harvard. The CSS probably wasn't thinking about that when they ranked him so low, but it will have an actual affect on his draft stock. The same thing will happen to Leblanc... just watch.
As for thoughts on the only players I actually watched...
Hanowski: Vision-9/10, Hands-9/10, Shot Accuracy-9/10, Strength-8/10, Shot Strength-7/10, Skating-6/10, Bad Habit of Taking Long Shifts Because his Team Needed Him To-4/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in an All-Star Environment-9/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in a League Environment-3/10
Schmidt: Shot Strength-10/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in an All-Star Environment-7/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in a League Environment-3/10
I'm not sure about Kreider, but Leddy, Budish, and Hanowski all turned down the opportunity to play in the NTDP or the USHL this season. There'll always be a few high school stars who decide to stay close to home, but it's more of just an odd occurance this year. Otherwise, those other leagues would be getting credit for these exact players.
Everson was passed over in the draft last year, but remember that he's going to play for Harvard. The CSS probably wasn't thinking about that when they ranked him so low, but it will have an actual affect on his draft stock. The same thing will happen to Leblanc... just watch.
As for thoughts on the only players I actually watched...
Hanowski: Vision-9/10, Hands-9/10, Shot Accuracy-9/10, Strength-8/10, Shot Strength-7/10, Skating-6/10, Bad Habit of Taking Long Shifts Because his Team Needed Him To-4/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in an All-Star Environment-9/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in a League Environment-3/10
Schmidt: Shot Strength-10/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in an All-Star Environment-7/10, Proven Against Elite Competition in a League Environment-3/10
Do you know why Hanowski didnt do a pre and post with the USHL? Any thoughts on how he would of faired in the USHL, thus effecting his draft ranking?
How much playing time will Hanowski and Mike Lee receive next year?
Thanks in advance.
Do you know why Hanowski didnt do a pre and post with the USHL? Any thoughts on how he would of faired in the USHL, thus effecting his draft ranking?
How much playing time will Hanowski and Mike Lee receive next year?
Thanks in advance.
Hanowski did the Elite League in the fall and he plays baseball in the spring. As for the USHL, I have no idea how he would have done. As I indicated, he's always excelled in All-Star scenarios (Elite League, Model Camp, Select Camps), but the USHL is a different animal all together. Skating is usually exposed first, though some players manage to overcome their handicaps. Looking at Omaha's roster, I'd like to think that he would have been right there with LeBlanc, Mullane, and Kristo in point totals. He should have done at least as well as his former teammate Jared Festler did. Festler was fourth on his USHL team in scoring (ppg) last season.
Ben should get a lot of icetime, as the coaching staff will want his big body on the ice even if means playing on the third or fourth line. I suspect he'll get a chance to play on the second PP unit as well.
Lee is coming in, we just don't know if it's Weslosky (Islanders) or Dunn (Caps) who'll be leaving. Either way, he'll get some exposure in the early non-conference games. If he does well, he could end up platooning with Weslosky, or if he's gone, competing with Dunn for the starting job. Either way, I think the starting job is his to lose starting his sophmore season.
It will be interesting how Hanowski fairs at this summers U20 camp in Lake Placid (I would think that he would be an invite) as there will be plenty of elite competition.
Any thoughts on what type of player he will turn out to be?
It will be interesting how Hanowski fairs at this summers U20 camp in Lake Placid (I would think that he would be an invite) as there will be plenty of elite competition.
Any thoughts on what type of player he will turn out to be?
Wow, I totally forgot about that. I hope they do invite him, but there's a good chance they won't. Last year there were only three high school players invited to camp... none of them made the final roster (Gardiner, Ness, Lee). The year before that, there were no players from high school invited to camp. The focus will be on NCAA, CHL, NTDP, and maybe a couple of USHL players.
For reference, here are the stats from the 2007 Select 17 Camp. He had five points in five games, which is good enough to put him in the top 24. Of course, there are plenty of lesser known names near the top of the scoring list, so don't take too much stock in the small data set.
Okay, perhaps going a little too far here... these are the players from last year's Junior Evaluation Camp that are still eligible for the coming year...
10 Tyler Johnson 5-9 (175) 175 (79) 7/29/90 L Spokane, Wash. Spokane Chiefs (WHL)/Free Agent
18 Danny Kristo 5-11 (180) 180 (82) 6/18/90 R Eden Prairie, Minn. Omaha Lancers (USHL)/Montreal Canadiens
19 Jordan Schroeder* 5-9 (175) 183 (83) 9/29/90 R Prior Lake, Minn. Univ. of Minnesota (WCHA)/2009 Draft Eligible
14 Mitch Wahl 6-0 (183) 190 (86) 1/22/90 R Seal Beach, Calif. Spokane Chiefs (WHL)/Calgary Flames
The last teams was LOADED with '89s. Perhaps there is room for Hanowski at the camp. Here are the 1990 born players that were or will be high NHL draft picks...
Zach Bogosian
Tyler Myers
Jake Gardiner
John Carlson
Phil McRae
Aaron Ness
Derek Stepan
Robbie Czarnik
Corey Fienhage
Max Nicastro
Vinny Saponari
Davis Warsofsky
Matt Donovan
AJ Jenks
Ryan Hegarty
Drew Olson
-----------------------
Mike Lee
Alex Chiasson
Ben Hanowski
Seth Helgeson
Jeff Costello
Danny Mattson
Alex Velischek
Justin Florek
Thomas Larkin
David Gerths
Those players were either from the first four rounds last year or are top 90 in the CSB Final Rankings this year. With the returning players, thats 30 names. I expect at least 12 of the 22 final players will be from the 1990 birthyear. Last year, there were 53 players invited to the Junior Evaluation Camp, so I guess Hanowski has a pretty decent shot at an invite. However, as evidenced by the U18 gold medal, there are a TON of good 1991 born players to choose from. So, we'll see.
Last edited by The Exiled One: 05-06-2009 at 05:09 PM.
Alex Velischek is a very solid all around defenseman. He has decent size (around 6-6'1") but is incredibly strong. I go to school right by Delbarton and we played them occasionally, and the word on the street was Alex could squat more than anyone on the Delbarton football team could so he is in very good shape. He is a smooth skater and has a very hard slapshot, and from the times i've watched he lasys some big hits.
Probably the best defenseman in New Jersey, although that isn't saying too much. He commited to Providence College for next year.
I guess before trying to do possible lists or lineups, one would need to know if the braintrust at USAH wants to win at all costs for the upcoming tournament or build for the one on home ice the following year.
Just off the top of my head I would also add
Ben Blood
John Moore
David Wohlberg
Josh Birkholz
Mike Cichy(even after leaving the NTDP program midseason and questionable defensively)
Watching KReider and Goldberg, there really cannot be a comparison. Goldberg doesn't have that explosiveness that Kreider does, but he has similar strenght just two inches shorter. Goldberg has incredible vision but is not that fast and only really impacts a team in the offensive zone. Kreider can flat out skate and hit, good two way forward. Laser of a shot and just is at a different level than Goldberg, but Goldberg does have increidble vision and athleticism too. Godlberg will make a great college player, I just don't know if he is pro material. Alex Velischek, one of hte least heralded players of this draft. He is about 6 feet and is a solid 200. The kid is a horse physically, his shot is insanely good too. I am interested to see how he does in college but he has all the tools and a good group around him to get him to the pros. He is a great offesnvie d man but needs work in the d zone. A lot of potential in my opinion even though he is called a polish guy. He will probably go top 3 rounds, very impressive from where he came from.
I used to be very good friends with Velischek before I went to college, because he lives like two houses up the road from my family. Take what I say with a grain of salt because of this possible bias, though I'll try to be objective as possible.
The guy is a beast. He's a big, very strong guy, built to play hockey and loves to play it. His father was, obviously, an NHL defensemen, so you have to figure he's grown up in a quality hockey environment. He skates very well from what I've seen, and his shot is good. Basically, he has all the tools to play at the NHL level, it's just a matter of him making sure to put it all together properly.
If the Devils fail to pick him, I will be very sad indeed.
