Since people started doing top 10s and top 20s in another thread, I did. Unfortunately my penchant for long-windedness got the better of me.
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=576164
1) Erik Karlsson – Only Meszaros challenges him as a prospect since Spezza. Big talent, big upside and no doubt the organization’s favourite prospect.
2) Brian Lee – Too early to start selling the chips here. Two months ago we, and the Murrays, had him penciled in as a contributing NHLer. Has a lot to lose though in the coming months.
3) Ilya Zubov – The biggest rise on my list. He’s always been talented, but proving he can dominate at the AHL level makes him our best forward prospect.
4) Nick Foligno – I believe he’s got some second line ability in him, but as a complimentary player. Needs to learn to play better with his linemates and rely less on his energy and individualism.
5) Brian Elliott – Goalies are hard to rank, particularly when there are no others in the system. I could entirely see a justification for Elliott being #2 on this list though. Not as high on his upside as some.
6) Patrick Wiercioch – The youngest and furthest away of this group, but probably with the highest upside. I have a soft spot for players with Wiercioch’s skill set.
7) Jesse Winchester – Somewhat harder to rank, but at the end of the day he’s already a third liner and has enough upside to be a support player on a second line. Unbelievably advanced for a first year pro.
8) Peter Regin – Legitimate second line center upside in my opinion, despite the rocky start to his time in Binghamton. His development in Sweden was textbook in its trajectory and he has a pure center skill set.
9) Jim O’Brien – I’m not as high on him as others, but he remains a first round pick with good tools and seems to be developing well enough. I have trouble ranking a first round pick who is developing well any lower to be honest.
10) Zack Smith – A hard player to rank. He’s outperforming Regin and O’Brien, but I wasn’t that impressed at the development camp, at least not sold on his upside. These three forwards are very close though.
11) Mattias Karlsson – Good tools and physically mature, which has eased his transition to North American hockey. Probably does not have top four upside, but is playing too well ths year to rank any lower.
12) Louie Caporusso – We have three talented but somewhat undersized scorers in a row, but I prefer Caporusso of the three. But they are interchangeable.
13) Kaspars Daugavins – If he hadn’t struggled out of the gate so much he’d be 11th, probably even 10th. There’s no rush with him though, and he’s a good prospect.
14) Andre Petersson – No doubt talented, but we knew that going into the draft. Has scored at every level but he remains small and one-dimensional. I’d wait and see how he handles the SEL before projecting him to the AHL/NHL.
15) Cody Bass – Almost a lock to play in the NHL, but also a lock to never score 20 goals. If a prospect’s likelihood of achieving their potential is meaningless to you though, he’d be about 30th.
16) Tomas Kudelka – Always been a fan, like his tools and see some upside. I think he’s flown under the radar for whatever reason, but we lack blueliners in the organization and he has almost two more years to develop.
17) Shawn Weller – Produced in college, wasn’t out of place at the WJC and is carving out a niche in the AHL. Has size, speed, energy and defensive ability. Has never had NHL scoring upside, but has more skill than Bass.
18) Erik Condra – I’m curious to see how his senior year goes. Not a great start after knee surgery. Intelligent, hard working player who has third line potential, but can’t afford to struggle all year.
19) Colin Greening – Prototypical NHL size, and has shown an ability to score in a low scoring league in college. I find players coming out of the ECAC hard to predict offensively.
20) Derek Grant – Doing all the right things but remains a long ways from the NHL. Good skater with good size and a nose for the net, but doesn’t use his size. If by his sophomore year in college he’s pushing a point a game, he shoots up these rankings though.
HM: Josh Hennessy, Vitaly Anikienko, Igor Mirnov, Kiril Lyamin, Ruslan Bashkirov.
Comments: A gap suggests a gap between the group of players. By the end of the year those groups could entirely be re-arranged, but it's a lot harder to jump up a group in my opinion. I excluded the Russians although Anikienko in particular I would like to include, but their inclusion confuses the consistency of the criteria otherwise. Hennessy was excluded because I just don't see him having any future in Ottawa, though I do think he could carve out a niche elsewhere. Realistically it was more a matter of not knowing how to rank him more than where. I must say overall our prospect pool is better now than it was for a few years. It's back to average I'd say.
