Hey all. I don't post often but I did some research today and wanted some opinions.
What I wanted to do was, using statistics almost exclusively, figure out the best defenseman in the NHL so far this season. The guy that, if I knew on Opening Night what the numbers would be today, I would choose as my top defenseman.
The reason I say statistics "almost exclusively" is because while I watch as much hockey as anybody, I can't see every team more than 2 or 3 times a year. That's why I'm asking for help.
To start, I figured out the criterion I wanted to use. It is, in order of importance, as follows:
1. The ability to add offensive production from the point, because after all, hockey is about outscoring your opponent.
1a. The ability to log a heavy workload night after night without missing games shows reliability and a confidence from the player's coaching staff.
2. Avoiding turnovers (giveaways) shows an ability to be smart with the puck and avoid hurting your team. Brent Burns and Matty Norstrom are very good at this. EDIT: At least I thought Burns was. See below for more.
3. Creating turnovers (takeaways), as it shows a sign of slowing opposition offensive chances.
4. Providing a physical presence that deters the opposition from taking risks in the middle of the ice.
5. Blocking shots is important for more than just the tangible reason of preventing a puck getting through to the goaltender. Shot blocking is a mentality-changing ability, as doing it consistently forces power plays to make more passes in an attempt to create the perfect shot. It is becoming very popular to publicize now, so some people may think this is more important than anything except scoring and logging heavy ice times.
6. The ability to play in ALL situations. A defenseman who kills penalties and plays on the power play effectively is inherently more valuable than one who simply does one or neither.
Using that, I decided to make a list of the Top 13 (random, but good enough sample size) defensemen so far this year. I automatically picked 9 guys just by looking at the cursory offensive statistics and time on ice numbers, believing they'd stand up as among the best no matter what. They were:
-Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
-Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks
-Brian Rafalski, Detroit Red Wings
-Sergei Zubov, Dallas Stars
-Dion Phaneuf, Calgary Flames
-Sergei Gonchar, Pittsburgh Penguins
-Jay Bouwmeester, Florida Panthers
-Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins
-Wade Redden, Ottawa Senators
So I have to figure out 4 more. I picked the following 7 players to compare:
-Mike Green, Washington Capitals
-Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens
-Mike Komisarek, Montreal Canadiens
-Michal Roszival, New York Rangers
-Francois Beauchemin, Anaheim Ducks
-Brent Burns, Minnesota Wild
-Paul Ranger, Tampa Bay Lightning
I listed the positive and negative for all of them:
PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL COMPARISONS AND STATISTICS ARE AMONG OTHER DEFENSEMEN. When I say a player is "Top 10 in the NHL" that means Top 10 among d-men.
Mike Green, Washington Capitals
Positives
-Leads the NHL in goals by a defenseman with 11.
-Has 2 game-winning overtime goals.
-Not afraid to force the issue on 1-on-1s, can create turnovers (23 takeaways among top 15 d-men)
-Reliable power play threat.
Negatives
-Doesn't block shots (only 23)
-Misses the net often (42 missed shots)
-Turns the puck over often (8th among d-men with 40 giveaways)
-Doesn't kill penalties.
Verdict: He's close, but I don't think he'll make it in because he just doesn't play enough and still makes some mistakes due to inexperience. Not in, yet.
Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens
Positives
-Among the Top 10 in scoring (25 pts)
-2nd in goals (10)
-Logs minutes (24:53 per game)
-Plays ALL special teams
-Power play threat
-Will block shots on the penalty kill (66 this season, among Top 30 in NHL)
-Doesn't take penalties (20 PIMs).
Negatives
-Not overly physical (32 hits in 41 games)
-Takes risk; turns puck over a lot because of it (44 giveaways, 3rd in NHL)
Verdict: He's in. Very good defender, and though he isn't a threat to knock you out, he doesn't have to in order to be effective.
TEN DEFENDERS IN, THREE SLOTS LEFT.
Michal Roszival, New York Rangers
Positives
-Developing into one of the biggest offensive blueline threats in the league. 10 goals is good for 2nd in the NHL.
-Top 20 in minutes per game at 24:23.
-Plays all specials, Rangers de-facto power play quarterback. Logs three minutes of PK a night. 2 shorthanded goals leads the NHL. 6 special teams goals tied for tops in NHL.
-Good with his stick, can force turnovers without taking penalties. 22 takeaways puts him in Top 20.
-64 blocked shots, willing to give up body on PK.
Negatives
-Still overly aggressive passing the puck in his own zone. 31 giveaways puts him amongst Top 20.
-Not willing enough to take the body in the corners. Only 49 hits.
Verdict: Almost a Markov clone. Likely will get a similar contract (worth 5.5 mil per) this summer. He's in.
ELEVEN DEFENDERS IN, TWO SLOTS LEFT.
Mike Komisarek, Montreal Canadiens
Positives
-An absolute monster that leads the league in hits with 130.
-Blows away the competition with 140 blocked shots. 2nd closest, Greg Zanon of the Predators, has 115.
-Forces turnovers. 23 takeaways this year.
-Montreal's most reliable penalty killer.
Negatives
-Still not a true top-pair defender in terms of minutes played. Gets just a shade over 22 a night.
-Part of that is because he's just not a huge threat offensively. 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points. Doesn't get PP minutes, averaging 16 seconds a night.
-Despite his lack of offensive prowess, he turns the puck over a lot. 36 giveaways this year, which puts him in the Top 15. That wouldn't be too bad if he put up the numbers some of the guys above him, like Markov, Zubov and Wade Redden.
Verdict: I think he's almost at the same level of production as Green, but they are polar opposites as players. I have the feeling those two will vie for the last spot. Not in, yet.
Brent Burns, Minnesota Wild
Positives
-Has integrated forward skill set into his full-time job on the backline. 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points all in Top 20.
-Plays all aspects of the game.
-2 game-winning goals.
-By far the league's best at forcing takeaways with 40. Second, Pronger, has 31.
-Smart player, doesn't take penalties (28 PIMs).
Negatives
-Plays 22:18 a night, 2nd on the Wild to Kim Johnsson. One could argue he's not a top-pair guy because of this statistic, and that might be true, but Minnesota has NEVER had a defender log huge minutes in their short history because it hasn't been Coach Jacques Lemaire's style.
-With increased responsibility and ice time has come a more careless Burns, as his 34 giveaways is in the Top 15. Over the last two years, there were a handful of defensemen that were better than Burns at avoiding turnovers. Not true anymore.
-Simply not a shot blocker (33) or a hitter (41). Teammates Johnsson and Nick Schultz do the former, but not the latter, so it could be a system thing again with taking the body.
Verdict: Man, I was a more impressed with Burns when I saw him play two or three times, but the numbers are telling. Again, he's on the edge, but if Green is the offensive guy and Komisarek is the defensive guy, Burns is right in the middle. Not in, yet.
Brian Campbell, Buffalo Sabres
Positives
-No. 12 in the NHL in time of ice per game at 25:28.
-Plays in all situations; Buffalo's No. 1 penalty killing defenseman
-Top 10 in scoring with 4 goals, 23 assists.
-Arguably the most disciplined player in the NHL. TWO PENALTY MINUTES this season. Unbelievable.
Negatives
-Part of the reason he has only 2 PIMs is because he's very conservative. Doesn't take the body often (41 hits in 39 games) and the numbers say he's reluctant to make a play on the puck (9 takeaways).
-High number of giveaways (25), especially considering his low number of takeaways.
-44 blocked shots is low commensurate to his high amount of penalty killing time. 3rd on his own team.
Verdict: Campbell isn't a physical threat, but he makes so few mistakes that you can't knock him for his perceived lack of aggressiveness. Very good, on the way to being great, all around defender. He's in.
TWELVE DEFENDERS IN, ONE SPOT REMAINING.
Francois Beauchemin, Anaheim Ducks
Positives
-Has proved Stanley Cup Playoffs breakthrough was not a fluke by ranking 4th in the NHL in time of ice at 26:57 per game.
-Plays in all situations.
-Great decision maker. Just 23 giveaways, which makes his low amount of takeaways (17) acceptable. One of the better GA/TA ratios in the league.
Negatives
-For all his time on the power play, he has just 1 goal and 13 assists.
-I don't like +/-, but at -12 it really stands out when teammates Pronger and Matt Schneider are even and +7, respectively.
-Only 48 hits and 38 blocked shots. The hits don't bother me that much, because he's the team's leading hitter on defense and Randy Carlyle doesn't seem to encourage overly physical play with the body, but Pronger dwarfs Beauchemin in blocked shots, which is a valid comparison.
Verdict: I'm surprised at Beauchemin's offensive struggles, which really hurt his cause. He's probably 4th on the "maybe" list.
Paul Ranger, Tampa Bay Lightning
Positives
-At 25:32 per game he's proven his ability to handle a No. 1 workload.
-Despite a surprisingly low time of ice average on the power play, he still ranks 19th in points with 7 goals and 15 assists.
-Great GA/TA ratio at 28/27. 6th in the league in takeaways.
-Accurate shooter. Double-digit shooting percentage and has had only 24 shots miss the net, which is far better than most defenders producing his level of points.
-73 blocked shots is good for Top 25 in the NHL.
Negatives
-Not fully trusted on the power play. Plays only 1:33 per game.
Verdict: He's in. Very solid, underrated season from a guy who has accepted the challenge of his unit's leader, Dan Boyle, going down for an extended period of time.
So there we go. Now what I want to know is what you think before I go on. Am I missing anybody? Should I use different standards? Thanks for any help.
Again, the 13 players I am considering for best defenseman of this season:
-Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
-Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks
-Brian Rafalski, Detroit Red Wings
-Sergei Zubov, Dallas Stars
-Dion Phaneuf, Calgary Flames
-Sergei Gonchar, Pittsburgh Penguins
-Jay Bouwmeester, Florida Panthers
-Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins
-Wade Redden, Ottawa Senators
-Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens
-Michal Roszival, New York Rangers
-Brian Campbell, Buffalo Sabres
-Paul Ranger, Tampa Bay Lightning
Iginla! Oh wait a sec, this thread is not about the Calgary Flames...
<- Walks away to look for other threads to pimp Iginla.
On a serious note, how do you propose to fairly compare defensive/shutdown defensemen and offensive/puck-moving defensemen? I think you need to separate categories.
Enstrom has easily been one of the top 13 defensemen in the league this season, and as a rookie none the less. He leads his team in ice team, plays on the PK and PP, and up until the past few games I had never seen him make a mistake.
I don't really understand you putting Jay Bouwmeester in the top 13 based on ice time and points. He leads his team with almost 27 minutes per night but does he use that time to the team's advantage? In a total of 1132 minutes of hockey, he's only managed 7 takeaways, 53 blocked shots and 50 hits. According to these stats he's been pretty bad defensively. (a bit over 1 hit and 1 blocked shot per game )
That's just defensively, because offensively he's been a complete non factor with only 6 goals ( That works out to about 0.14 goals per nights work [27 minutes]) and 8 assists. His 87 shots is what surprises me the most though. I mean in over 1000 minutes on the ice and only being able to muster up 87 shots...wow.
If Bouwmeester is considered one of the best d-men in the league then a case could be made for almost every team's 4th defenceman.
Other then that, very good report.
*Note, I haven't seen Bouwmeester play this year and based all of my comments on statistics and disappointment from fantasy pools. haha
Any chance the Panthers will be looking to deal him for a prospect and pick?
Only if it's Halak and a 2nd
Seriously though, this is an easy answer...Lidstrom
I had a good laugh at this quote about Campbell. "But he makes so few mistakes that you can't knock him for his perceived lack of aggressiveness"
He makes a good amount of mistakes..
You can't make this decision by looking at stat sheets, you have to observe them play.
__________________
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Last edited by Classic Tammy: 01-07-2008 at 03:59 AM.
If Roszival gets 5.5 per I'm going to be one unhappy Ranger fan
Rozsival getting 5.5 might make him into a non-Ranger. But we'll see how much the cap rises. And frankly, we should keep him, as Rangers have to invest in defense. The $35 million/ $10 million in money spent on forwards/ defensmen is one of the most skewed in the league.
He has an absolute deadly wristshot when he gets the chance, but (still!) passes good shooting opportunities away because Jagr is on the ice. He could have more than 10 goals by now if he was a little bit more "selfish" sometimes. What I don't like about Rozsival is his refusal to use his body. He favours going after the puck and if he misses, he can look stupid, because odds are he won't take the player either.
Still, he's an experienced offensive defenseman who knows when to pinch and move forward into the slot in the offensive zone, that's how most of his goals have been created, because frankly, no traditional D-man stands a chance to score from the blueline on a consistant basis anymore. Teams are just blocking the lanes too much. But, of course, those shots can turn into assists instead if they get through.
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Another interesting defenseman to mention on the Rangers squad is young Dan Girardi, who not many know about, because he practically came from nowhere two seasons ago and gained a spot on the squad from camp. He's not afraid to use his body, has made very few defensive mistakes during his NHL career so far and forms a usually formidable defensive pairing with also Fedor Tyutin, another promising, hipchecking (which Kasparaitis probably taught him properly) Russian. What's interesting about Girardi is that he has scored 8 goals so far this season. The notable thing about this is that most of those have actually come from the traditional blueline. Not on slapshots, but on silent, screened, smart wristers.
I'm not saying Girardi is in the top discussion, I'm just saying to keep an eye on him and Tyutin on the second pairing if you watch Rangers play (and of course, rookie Marc Staal ).
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