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Why the Games Ahead/Games Behind system should work for NHL standings
In every sport but the NHL, the most popular and useful standings asset is Games Ahead/Games Behind. The NHL doesn't use this, because of the OTL/SO points screws it up, right?
But is this true or just a misreading? I made these calculations using my team the Leafs
The Leafs are currently 5-11-7 and have 17 points in 23 games. The maximum points possible in 23 games is 46. So if the Leafs had .500 of their possible points, they'd have 23 points
Thereby the Leafs are 6 points behind .500, just as they are 6 wins behind .500 just using W/L at 5-11. This seems like a WTF considering a win is worth 2 points, but has a simple explanation:
If they win tonight, the Leafs will have 19 points, their max points in 24 games will be 48, thus their .500 number will be 24. This leaves them 5 points behind, not 4. If they lose, they have 17 points and their .500 wil be 24, leaving them 7 points behind. If they lose in OT/SO, they have 18 points, putting them 6 behind that 24. So a win puts you 1 pt up, a loss 1 pt down, and an OTL does nothing
Essentially, OT/SO losses are next to meaningless. A team's standings is still determined by the difference between Ws and Ls. The OTL column is closer in value to Games Played than the team's W/L total and points.
Further elaborated: 93 points usually makes the playoffs. 164 is the max points for a season, .500 of that is 82. 93 is 11 points above 82, so to make the playoffs, 11 more wins than losses should be the goal. Let's look at last year to check:
8th place... Montreal. 93 points. 41-30-11. 11 more Ws than Losses.
7th place... NY Rangers. 95 points. 43-30-9. 13 more Ws than Losses. 13 games above .500. 1 game ahead of Montreal.
4th place... Philly. 44-27-11. 99 points
5th place... Carolina. 45-30-7. 97 points
This is the normal snag. Carolina has more wins than Philly but finishes behind them because of the OTLs. BUT, Philly is 17 games above .500 to Carolina's 15. Therefore their standings correctly say they are 1 game or win ahead of them.
Looking at this year's standings, there is no reason why GA/GB can't be implimented just based off W/L and relation to .500 like in every other sport.
Pittsburgh is 17-9-0, 8 games above .500. Philadelphia is 13-9-1, 4 games above .500. Philadelphia is 4 GB of Pittsburgh. Now conventional logic says Philly is 7 points behind so they should be 3.5 GB. BUT Philly is essentially playing an 81 game season to Pittsburgh's 82 after that OTL, which gives the Pens the half game back, if you will.
At the end of the year, the standings will INVARIABLY descend according to W/Ls difference and games above .500. Therefore, this is the true way to measure a team's place in the league mid-season and cleaner than the points system because Games Played does not alter it
I have made up the Eastern and Western Conference standings using this, with the games above .500 or number of Ws over Ls in parenthesis. For example NJ is 16-6-1 so their number is 10
1 New Jersey (10)
2 Washington 0.5 GB (9)
3 Ottawa 2 GB (6)
4 Pittsburgh 1 GB (8)
5 Buffalo 2 GB (6)
6 Philadelphia 3 GB (4)
7 Boston 3 GB (4)
8 Atlanta 3 GB (4)
9 NY Rangers 3.5 GB (3)
10 Tampa Bay 3.5 GB (3)
11 Florida 4.5 GB (1)
12 NY Islanders 4.5 GB (1)
13 Montreal 5 GB (0)
14 Toronto 8 GB (-6)
15 Carolina 9.5 GB (-9)
West
1 Chicago (11)
2 San Jose 0.5 GB (10)
3 Calgary 1.5 GB (8)
4 Nashville 2.5 GB (6)
5 Colorado 2.5 GB (6)
6 Dallas 3 GB (5)
7 Los Angeles 3.5 GB (4)
8 Columbus 4 GB (3)
9 Detroit 4 GB (3)
10 Vancouver 4.5 GB (2)
11 Phoenix 4.5 GB (2)
12 St. Louis 5.5 GB (0)
13 Edmonton 6.5 GB (-2)
14 Anaheim 6.5 GB (-2)
15 Minnesota 7 GB (-3)
Interestingly enough, this greatly shuffles the standings. NJ and Chicago are now on top, the Islanders are a more reasonable position, Nashville and Calgary look great, Edmonton and Montreal are troubled, etc.
I'm sure it wouldn't be hard for nhl.com or espn to enter this into a database... I doubt the motivation is there though. In this thread every once a while I'll update the playoff and divisional races using this GB system
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