This is my ranking of the top 60 (or so) goalies for a one-year league. Considering standard stats (W, GAA, SV%, SO). Just a rough draft so far. Any major disagreements? Feedback?
Note: I like to divide the goalies into 3 levels: elite, average, below average. Then, select a goalie from each level.
Luongo, Roberto
Brodeur, Martin
Nabokov, Evgeni
Lundqvist, Henrik
Ward, Cam
Fleury, Marc-Andre
Thomas, Tim
--------------------------
Backstrom, Niklas
Miller, Ryan
Hiller, Jonas
Kiprusoff, Miikka
Khabibulin, Nikolai
Mason, Steve
Huet, Cristobal
Rinne, Pekka
Osgood, Chris
Emery, Ray
Vokoun, Tomas
Turco, Marty
Price, Carey
Varlamov, Semyon
Smith, Mike
Mason, Chris
Lehtonen, Kari
Bryzgalov, Ilya
Leclaire, Pascal
Quick, Jonathan
---------------------------
Anderson, Craig
Toskala, Vesa
Howard, Jimmy
Giguere, Jean-Sebastien
Roloson, Dwayne
Ellis, Dan
Conklin, Ty
Halak, Jaroslav
Niittymaki, Antero
Boucher, Brian
Theodore, Jose
Elliott, Brian
Crawford, Corey
Clemmensen, Scott
Harding, Josh
Rask, Tuukka
Gustavsson, Jonas
Biron, Martin
Ersberg, Erik
Garon, Mathieu
Budaj, Peter
Auld, Alex
Greiss, Thomas
Johnson, Brent
McElhinney, Curtis
Hedberg, Johan
Drouin-Deslauriers, Jeff
Leighton, Michael
Danis, Yann
Valiquette, Steve
LaBarbera, Jason
Pavelec, Ondrej
DiPietro, Rick
This is my ranking of the top 60 (or so) goalies for a one-year league. Considering standard stats (W, GAA, SV%, SO). Just a rough draft so far. Any major disagreements? Feedback?
Note: I like to divide the goalies into 3 levels: elite, average, below average
Luongo, Roberto
Brodeur, Martin
Nabokov, Evgeni
Lundqvist, Henrik
Ward, Cam
Kiprusoff, Miikka
Fleury, Marc-Andre
Miller, Ryan
Hiller, Jonas
--------------------------
Thomas, Tim
Backstrom, Niklas
Khabibulin, Nikolai
Mason, Steve
Huet, Cristobal
Rinne, Pekka
Osgood, Chris
Emery, Ray
Vokoun, Tomas
Turco, Marty
Price, Carey
Varlamov, Semyon
Smith, Mike
Mason, Chris
Lehtonen, Kari
Bryzgalov, Ilya
Leclaire, Pascal
Quick, Jonathan
---------------------------
Anderson, Craig
Toskala, Vesa
Howard, Jimmy
Giguere, Jean-Sebastien
Roloson, Dwayne
Ellis, Dan
Conklin, Ty
Halak, Jaroslav
Niittymaki, Antero
Boucher, Brian
Theodore, Jose
Elliott, Brian
Crawford, Corey
Clemmensen, Scott
Harding, Josh
Rask, Tuukka
Gustavsson, Jonas
Biron, Martin
Ersberg, Erik
Garon, Mathieu
Budaj, Peter
Auld, Alex
Greiss, Thomas
Johnson, Brent
McElhinney, Curtis
Hedberg, Johan
Drouin-Deslauriers, Jeff
Leighton, Michael
Danis, Yann
Valiquette, Steve
LaBarbera, Jason
Pavelec, Ondrej
DiPietro, Rick
Disagree with Hiller and Kiprusoff. Hiller has by no-means cemented the #1 job in Anaheim, and while I'm a big fan of his, he doesn't move into fantasy elite until Giguere is gone, or it's a bygone conclusion that Hiller is going to play 60+ games. Also, Kiprusoff might have lead the league in wins last year, but he was dead last for goals allowed, and well into the 30's for save percentage and goals against average.
Thomas should be moved up (28-19-8, 2.44, 0.921 and 36-11-7, 2.10, 0.933 doesn't classify as elite?), as should Backstrom - although he's been going a lot later in drafts this year, almost certainly because of the uncertainty of what kind of team Minnesota will be icing.
Disagree with Hiller and Kiprusoff. Hiller has by no-means cemented the #1 job in Anaheim, and while I'm a big fan of his, he doesn't move into fantasy elite until Giguere is gone, or it's a bygone conclusion that Hiller is going to play 60+ games. Also, Kiprusoff might have lead the league in wins last year, but he was dead last for goals allowed, and well into the 30's for save percentage and goals against average.
Thomas should be moved up (28-19-8, 2.44, 0.921 and 36-11-7, 2.10, 0.933 doesn't classify as elite?), as should Backstrom - although he's been going a lot later in drafts this year, almost certainly because of the uncertainty of what kind of team Minnesota will be icing.
all good points that I pretty much agree with.
Hiller - I think I'm biased towards Hiller because he saved me last season when Luongo went down.
Thomas - Only reason I didn't rank Thomas higher is age and lack of a track record. He doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon though.
Kipper - I think he'll rebound slightly, as Calgary should be a better team this year. But, yeah, I keep forgetting how terrible his GAA is
Backstrom - I like where he is currently ranked. Minnesota doesn't seem to be getting better IMO. Who knows what will happen with a new coach.
adjusted:
Luongo, Roberto
Brodeur, Martin
Nabokov, Evgeni
Lundqvist, Henrik
Ward, Cam
Fleury, Marc-Andre
Thomas, Tim
--------------------------
Backstrom, Niklas
Miller, Ryan
Hiller, Jonas
Kiprusoff, Miikka
Khabibulin, Nikolai
For me age is a big factor in my selection of goaltenders. I rank Lundqvist higher than both Brodeur and Nabokov because they both had injuries last season.(Nabokov also is losing 2 great dmen, and the rangers are typically solid defensively). Brodeur is amazing if he can stay healthy, but that's a 2nd or 3rd rounder wasted if he's sitting in your IR for any extended period of time...
I selected both luongo and lundqvist, I remember you were saying that's "overkill" in my fantasy thread. In seasons past goaltending has been my team's main problem. If you can lock in 4 categories most weeks(out of I believe 10 stats) that would give you a huge advantage every week especially since that leaves my opponents with lesser goaltending options. There are really only 3 teams including mine in my league that I can see beating my goalie duo right now. One person has khabi, kipper, and
I may roll out a 3rd goaltender if I find one I like off of the waiver wire. I believe Anderson is going to impact Colorado greatly, he was beating out Vokoun for several weeks last season. Or maybe I'll grab Quick depending on how hot LA gets this year.
Your list is pretty close, the below avg goalies will be mixed around a bunch once the season actually starts though.
and I do realize it's bad for me to rank nabby and brodeur lower due to injuries and yet I hype on Luongo, but luongo missed 25 games.. and still had an amazing season...Plus he's 30 so he's got a bunch more years left.
Brodeur is amazing if he can stay healthy, but that's a 2nd or 3rd rounder wasted if he's sitting in your IR for any extended period of time...
Martin Brodeur's games started over the past 15 years:
38 (lockout shortened)
75
64
69
70
72
72
73
73
75
(lockout)
73
78
77
30
That's pretty stable. I don't think Brodeur is any higher of an injury risk than, well, ANY other goalie.
Quote:
I selected both luongo and lundqvist, I remember you were saying that's "overkill" in my fantasy thread. In seasons past goaltending has been my team's main problem. If you can lock in 4 categories most weeks(out of I believe 10 stats) that would give you a huge advantage every week especially since that leaves my opponents with lesser goaltending options.
I half subscribe to that theory, I guess. There are a half dozen 'elite' goalies in my book, and I try to grab one of those. However, using two high picks on goaltenders is very risky, in my opinion.
Looking at a couple recent drafts I did... (I don't mean to toot my own horn, this is just an example as to why I didn't take two (or even one) elite goalies.)
Rinne/Khabibulin/Giguere/Theodore (start 2 goalies, 12 teams) - Khabibulin is a lock to be the go-to guy in Edmonton, and Rinne is very likely to be that guy in Nashville. If he falters, as I don't trust rookies, one of Giguere or Theodore could very well steal the #1 job back from Hiller/Varlamov. NOT spending my high picks on goalies allowed me to also build my offense around:
(2) Malkin, (23) Semin, (26) DSedin, (47) Marleau, (50) Franzen. Each one of those guys is a lock for 30 goals, most are good for 35+, averaged over 50pim each, and combined to be +103 last year.
You can find another player who will match Franzen point totals, easily - he only had 59 last year. However, in the later rounds, it's almost impossible to find players who put up 60 points (not to mention most of them goals) AND have great supporting numbers (+21, 246 shots, and he's going to play a much larger part of Detroit's offense this year with Hudler/Hossa gone).
Every team can build their offense around 70+ point players - Ribeiro usually goes around 120th overall. Not every team gets those supporting categories like +/-, pim, shots, and powerplay points along with their point producers, especially on the wings.
An extreme example is, say, affording yourself the luxury of two elite goaltenders means you might have to draft Shane O'Brien late in the draft to shore up your penalty minutes rather than taking someone like Chara earlier, who's going to contribute 50 points along with 100pim and a great +/-. Those 19 goals, 21 assists, +18, and 177 extra shots that Chara had - are those more or less likely to be the difference between 1st and 2nd in your pool than the difference between a 2.30gaa and a 2.55gaa?
thank you for whomever posted how many games marty plays every year.. i am so sick and effin tired of people saying "as long as he can stay healthy he will be good"... i mean really the first time he has been injured... i dont see anyone bashing bobby lou about taht ****... and ryan miller gets the same treatment... just stupid imo... marty will win vezna this year... anyone remember how he came back from the injury? shutout... followed by a few more in the next couple games... in a 1 year league, he should be first goalie drafted.
marty will win vezna this year... anyone remember how he came back from the injury? shutout... followed by a few more in the next couple games... in a 1 year league, he should be first goalie drafted.
He's going to win the Vezina, is he?
...it reflects poorly on your opinion when you speak in absolutes that are impossible to prove or predict. He has as good a chance as anyone, but you have NO proof that he won`t **** the bed and post a 4.32gaa - just history that suggests it`s (very) unlikely.
I'd be careful with Rinne as your go to guy, ek. Ellis has looked sharp in camp thus far while Rinne still hasn't shook off the rust. I'm sure all will be right in time, but Ellis should still see a fair amount of starts. However, if Ellis gets traded at the deadline, Rinne's value will obviously go up. You have plenty of other options in net so you should be fine.
GB - there is definitely nothing wrong with your strategy, and it is probably the best one for a small league. I just don't follow it myself because I like to monitor the FA pool and pick up goalies as they get hot. I find that there are always surprises throughout the year. If you keep Lu and Lund, you probably don't need a 3rd goalie, which gives you an advantage.
http://saucerpass.com/draft-experiment/
I found this last night. These guys did a draft experiment using 4 different strategies: Goalie emphasis, defense emphasis, forward emphasis, and best pick available. Interesting results as the goalie and defense teams finished 1st, forward team finished 4th, and the BPA team finished 11th. Obviously there are flaws to this experiment, but the results do speak for themselves.
http://saucerpass.com/draft-experiment/
I found this last night. These guys did a draft experiment using 4 different strategies: Goalie emphasis, defense emphasis, forward emphasis, and best pick available. Interesting results as the goalie and defense teams finished 1st, forward team finished 4th, and the BPA team finished 11th. Obviously there are flaws to this experiment, but the results do speak for themselves.
Great read, but there are obvious flaws in their experiment.
First off, they got lucky (or were exceptionally good) with their wingers. They took Semin 88th overall, Gagne 129th, and Havlat 153rd. Gagne was coming off a 25 game season, Havlat a 35 game season, and Semin produced 42pts with a -18 in 63 games the year before last. The fact all three of those were fairly healthy and incredibly productive was probably more of an impact on their end result than the goaltenders alone.
Secondly...
Quote:
The two young pivots at season’s end for this team were Backstrom and Zajac. Neither were even drafted by this team initially, they were free agent pick-ups. They both had breakout seasons playing with good wingers on their lines.
..enough said.
Also, in their forward-biased draft, their drafted goalies were Legace, Biron, and Gerber. They dropped Rob Blake after a non-productive October. Their 2nd center had a very below-average year (Kopitar).
That team also still finished 4th - keeping Blake and perhaps 1 round earlier goaltender selections and that team probably pushes for 1st as well. Thanks for the link though =D I enjoy reading stuff like that, and am thinking about putting together a blog / free guide for next year.
Interesting experiment that guy tried. I did something similar last year in my 14 team H2H league. Focused on goalies in the draft and managed to finish second in the league. The guy who took 1st had Luongo and Thomas. But the goalie cats were what pushed me through the playoffs into the finals.
This year I'm trying it again in a 12 team H2H to see if I can repeat the results. My picks were Kiprusoff, Nabokov, and Smith. I hope these guys work out. I passed on some elite guys like Lundy, Fleury, Thomas, and even Brodeur. Looking at it now, I kind of wish I took one elite from each conference.
When you draft #5 and #9 28 and 53 in a 10 teams league you're in good shape right? #8 and #12 as goalie too.
I'd rank Price higher tho, mostly cause of his upsides. I think odds are he outperforms quite a few goalie ahead of him.
I don't understand your first question.
Yeah, I could see Price going up 2 or 3 spots. He just hasn't lived up to his hype yet and I don't see any reason to believe that next year will be his year. Halak should see a fair amount of starts, no? If this was a keeper league then yeah, Price would be ranked much higher.
I should probably rank Emery lower. Too much risk there. Osgood may not see many starts, but when he plays, he should get the wins.
Yeah, I could see Price going up 2 or 3 spots. He just hasn't lived up to his hype yet and I don't see any reason to believe that next year will be his year. Halak should see a fair amount of starts, no? If this was a keeper league then yeah, Price would be ranked much higher.
I should probably rank Emery lower. Too much risk there. Osgood may not see many starts, but when he plays, he should get the wins.
First isnt really a question, just my draft result tonight.
That said, in NO way should Emery be ranked higher then Price or better then most goalies... I mean he played in Russia and he isnt that good of a goalie altogether. Price well, he did play pretty good before his injury then afer he sucked and so did the whole team and it killed his team. He was 10-12th best goalie easily before his injury. I dont see how some guys that basically only played half a year should be ranked higher then him. If you look at his previous year he's in the Hiller, Rinne, etc's number. So was he before his injury. I really don't see how these guys are SO much better then him.
Does the ordering matter within each of the tiers?
Off the top of my head, some thoughts:
I'd nudge Thomas ahead of Ward and Fleury even. He'll have a better GAA than Fleury, and plays behind a better club than Ward. If GAA matters, that is.
IMO, Kipper should leapfrog Hiller, if not everyone in tier 2. Hiller is too risky to put above Kipper. Especially with the coaching change and addition of Bouwmeester in Calgary.
I would take out Khabibulin and Rinne from their respective spots, and put them right below Varlamov. Edmonton has a lot of question marks, and Rinne is going to be competing with Ellis for starts. Varlamov will compete with Theodore to some extent, but Theo has been questioned for years now. Washington is going to win a pile of games.
Chris Mason should be above Smith. St. Louis is looking good. Especially with EJ and Kariya back.
Bryzgalov should be ahead of Lehtonen due to durability alone. Lehtonen is risky.
