What Team will Lead NHL in 5 on 5 2009/2010

[Rob Zepp]

Last year, the top 10 in the league in terms of 5 on 5 GF/GA ratio were:

Rank Team 5-5 F/A
1..... BOS __ 1.42
2..... NJD __ 1.25
3..... VAN __ 1.21
4..... DET __ 1.2
5..... CHI __ 1.18
6..... PIT __ 1.18
7..... CBJ __ 1.16
8..... WSH __ 1.1
9..... ANA __ 1.09
10.... SJS __ 1.09


Which one of these, or perhaps one of the 2008-09 lower ranked 5 on 5 teams, will come through in 2009-2010? Note that ALL six Division Winners came from this list last year PLUS the Stanley Cup Champs so being on this list appears to be important to a successful season. Predict away!

[NorthVanCanuck]

Things like this are very hard to predict. I went with Boston because of the large margin they had last season.

[Rob Zepp]

Originally Posted by NorthVanCanuck

Things like this are very hard to predict. I went with Boston because of the large margin they had last season.

Couldn't agree more. However, from the Top 10 last year came the six teams that won their divisions and the team that won the Stanley Cup...7 of the 10 teams with the other 3 being solid playoff teams.

Clearly, having 5 on 5 success is essential to overall success. It is indeed hard to predict but so many people are predicting outcomes for divisions etc. and the idea here was to add a bit of logic to those predictions.

[ILoveLuci]

I don't want to vote Pittsburgh on this poll. They likely will rely on Gonchar more since he's healthy. This equates to more power play goals.

[megajake]

got to go with the devils. anyway how do you post threads?

[State of Hockey]

Detroit is the perennial contender/winner here, and I think they make a little rebound back to the top. They're the safest choice by far.

[In Flamez]

I went with the Hawks.

[DG]

Hard to bet against Detroit in most cases.

[Rob Zepp]

I went with New Jersey. Having Marty for the entire year with the potential for getting the Canadian team starting role will take them up the ladder. HM to Detroit, Boston and Vancouver but the NJD style of hockey is bound to improve this year moving on and up in terms of a better coach as well.

[salty justice]

I don't see why Boston won't repeat. They are icing the same team and are elite in all 3 positions.

NJ could make up some ground with Marty back for hopefully a full season but it's not like they were hurting without him. They also lost Rolston and Madden without replacing them.

[masterofgrond]

Probably Boston. They were just a dominant force 5v5 last season.

The Devils and Red Wings will both be very good, though, just because of who they are and who they have.

[NewEnglandSportsFan]

it will be the bruins. why? 3 scoring lines plus a 4th line of bangers...

when your 3rd line is bergeron, recchi, and kobasew.. well... that should show why it is that the bruins are good. team depth, not like the standard ottawa with their 1 solid line... plus timmy thomas and the defense means the bruins will win this agian

[Master_Of_Districts]

Originally Posted by salty justice

I don't see why Boston won't repeat.

I do.

The Bruins shot 9.1% at ES last year and had the opposition shoot 6.1% against them (source).

Their ES shot differential was actually negative (-49).

It's been demonstrated that while ES shot differential tends to be fairly repeatable on a year-to-year basis, the percentages are quite volatile (certainly this is true of ES shooting percentage; deviations in ES save percentage are more sustainable due to the influence of the goaltender).

While I suspect that the Bruins will still finish in the Black this year in terms of ES goal differential (if only on account of their goaltending), expect a significant regression from last year.

[Rob Zepp]

Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts

I do.

The Bruins shot 9.1% at ES last year and had the opposition shoot 6.1% against them (source).

Their ES shot differential was actually negative (-49).

It's been demonstrated that while ES shot differential tends to be fairly repeatable on a year-to-year basis, the percentages are quite volatile (certainly this is true of ES shooting percentage; deviations in ES save percentage are more sustainable due to the influence of the goaltender).

While I suspect that the Bruins will still finish in the Black this year in terms of ES goal differential (if only on account of their goaltending), expect a significant regression from last year.

Interesting...then what team do you think will lead the 5 on 5 this year?

[Master_Of_Districts]

Originally Posted by Rob Zepp

Interesting...then what team do you think will lead the 5 on 5 this year?

It could be any reasonably good ES team that gets some assistance from the percentages (Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, etc).

The Wings absolutely murdered the opposition on the shot clock at ES last year. Had they not lost so many key forwards, I'd be inclined to go with them.

[Rob Zepp]

Here are the top ten so far this year. My Devils choice is not looking good...so far

1 WSH 1.50
2 SJS 1.34
3 CHI 1.34
4 VAN 1.32
5 BUF 1.16
6 PIT 1.15
7 COL 1.15
8 PHX 1.12
9 NJD 1.09
10 PHI 1.04

The top 4 teams in terms of 5on5 have really distanced themselves from the rest of the pack to this point in the season. Washington's ratio is one of the best of any team in recent years at this point in season. Great year for them so far.

Really interesting to see if that can be maintained down the stretch.

[fronkjonk]

Voted Chicago cause Edmonton was not a choice

[Rob Zepp]

Originally Posted by fronkjonk

Voted Chicago cause Edmonton was not a choice

Uh, Edmonton not the strongest at that area this year but there was an "other" option....go for that.